商务英语文章(带中文翻译)

一 World economy The jobs crisis 失业危机 It s coming whatever governments do but they can make it better or worse 不论政府如何努力 失业危机已经到来 不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用 Illustration by Belle Mellor NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression You can see it in the drawn faces of the men in their shabby clothes in their eyes Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits many of which have their origins in those dark days joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution at least in the developed world 再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦 这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容 褴褛的衣衫 还有他们的眼神 由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点 失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业 痛苦方面所起到的重要作用 很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期 受惠于这些计划 至少 发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困 Not even the gloomiest predict that today s slump will approach the severity of the Depression which shrank America s economy by more than a quarter and put a quarter of the working age population out of a job But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless and raises the big question posed in the Depression what should governments do 即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度 后者使美国经济缩水四分之一 四分之一的就业人口 失去工作 但随着世界经济出现自 1930 年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易 80 年来的最快速萎缩 大规模失业的 恶魇再度凸显 并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题 政府应该做些什么 Join the queue 加入失业队伍 In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America where the recession began Its flexible labour market has shed 4 4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007 including more than 600 000 in each of the past three months The unemployment rate jumped to 8 1 in February the highest in a quarter century An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes 富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著 自从 07 年 12 月经济陷入低迷以来 美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢 出了 440 万份失业 其中在过去三个月内每月产生了 60 万份 二月的失业率跃升至 8 1 是 25 年来的最高数字 比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期 眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作 特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工 收入的时候 这种情况尤其令人堪忧 But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies Although unemployment is low rapid job losses among Japan s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society 然而显而易见的是 失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国 日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快 尽管失 业率尚低 但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了 双层劳工市场 的不公平性 加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张 In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland where building booms have crashed but has only begun to edge up elsewhere The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America s but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand Given how fast European economies are shrinking nobody doubts that worse lies ahead By the end of 2010 unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10 在欧洲 建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快 而在其他地方则初现端倪 很多欧洲国家的 失业率都低于美国 但也许这只是因为它们有更加严格的劳工市场 从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢 面对着快速萎 缩的欧洲经济 没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前 到 2010 年底 多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过 10 In the emerging world the pattern will be different but the outcome more painful As trade shrinks millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year 发展中国家的情况就不一样了 只不过结果会更人头疼 随着贸易萎缩 数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链 条底端的立锥之地 他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村 伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头 世界银行预计 今年将有约 5300 万人降到极端贫困线以下 Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help That s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because having just given trillions of dollars to the banks politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs But help cannot be measured in dollars alone Badly designed policies can be self defeating After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s Europe s rigid labour markets kept unemployment high for decades 政治上 政府必须全力介入进行援助 这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额 重心注定要返回 另 一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力 需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位 然而挽救不能仅以 美元来衡量 错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙 自 1970 年代和 1980 年代初期的经济衰退以来 欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力 市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下 Governments are piling in with short term help for workers In America which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world extending unemployment benefits was rightly part of the recent stimulus package Japan is giving social assistance to non regular workers a group that has long been ignored In general however it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave 各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助 美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低 而最近出台的经济刺激计划 中 扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分 日本为长期以来受忽视的 非固定 劳动者群体提供社会援助 不过总的来说 比起失业补助 资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举 很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足 劳工薪资 These are sensible measures so long as they are time limited for in the short term governments need to do all they can to sustain demand But the jobs crisis alas is unlikely to be short lived Even if the recession ends soon and there is little sign of that happening the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come Moreover many of yesterday s jobs from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader are not coming back People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones 这些措施在一定时限内是合理的 因为在短期内 政府需要尽全力维持需求 只是哎呀 就业危机不大可能只在短期 内存在 即便经济衰退很快结束 而且几乎不可能发生 引起这场危机的阴云 资金短缺和过度借贷 将在接 下来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年 更有甚者 不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员 很多昔日的就业岗位会一 去不复返 人们将被迫告别现有职位 转行进入新岗位 A difficult dance 艰难的舞步 Over the next couple of years politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U turn for in the long term they need flexible labour markets That will mean abolishing job subsidy programmes taking away protected workers privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off Countries such as Japan with two tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire 在接下来的几年中 政治家们不得不做出一个 180 度的艰难政策转变 因为从长远来看 他们需要一个灵活的劳动力 市场 这意味着废除工作补贴计划 去除受保护劳工的特权 以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组 像日本这样 具有双层劳动力结构的国家 大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障 而被娇生惯养的上层员工却能享受到多重保护 这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除 The euphemism for that is flexibility The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed the more easily new ones can be created The programmes that help today by keeping people in existing jobs will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead As time goes by spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut and replaced with spending on training them for new ones Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible That is going to require fancy political footwork but politicians will have to perform those steps because if they fail to they will stifle growth 这些措施可以委婉地概括为 灵活性 措施 更直白的事实是 现有工作越容易被废弃 新工作就越容易被创造 眼 下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累 随着时间推移 用在保留人员旧岗位的指出 需要削减 取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支 各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动 力市场 这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划 但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤 因为如果他们不这样做 增长将被 遏制 However well governments design their policies unemployment is going to rise sharply for some time At best it will blight millions of lives for years The politicians task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades 然而 不论政府政策制定的多么完美 失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增 不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷 于困境 当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年 二 China s trade Surplus to requirements 顺差的需要 Why is China s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed 为什么中国的出口大幅下降时 贸易顺差却在增长 THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world s third biggest economy At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world s biggest exporter but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany s China s exports tumbled by 13 in dollar terms in the fourth quarter leaving them 3 lower in December than a year earlier Despite this China s trade surplus rose to a record 457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter 50 bigger than in the same period of 2007 What is going on 本周 修正后的数字显示中国在 2007 年已经超越德国成为世界第三大经济体 在去年初 中国也目标成为世界上最 大的出口国 但是年末数月出口的大幅下落意味着他们仍然排在德国之后 按照美元来计算 中国的出口额在第四季 度下降了 13 比一年前同期少了 3 尽管如此 中国的贸易顺差在第四季度却以全年增速上升到创纪录的 4570 亿 美元 比 2007 年同期增长了 50 这其中到底有何玄机 In the first half of 2008 China s trade surplus did indeed shrink see chart But since then although exports slumped imports fell by much more down by 21 in the 12 months to December The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports over 50 of total imports 2008 年上半年 中国的贸易顺差确实出现了缩水 见表 但是自那以后 尽管出口大跌 但是进口跌的更惨 到 12 月时 12 个月内下跌了 21 进出口双双下滑由于受到全球信贷停滞影响而加剧 这是因为信用冻结导致全世界 的公司更加难以获得信用证从而保证支付 出口同样也受到拖累 其下跌主要是由于更廉价的原油和商品价格 以及 原材料和用于出口产品的部件进口 占到进口总量的 50 以上 表现疲软 But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well but construction a big user of imported raw materials has collapsed 但是关于中国进口下降的一个更令人忧虑的原因是 中国的国内需求减小 消费支出和生产投资目前的收缩尚且适当 但是建筑业作为进口原材料的使用大户也出现了急剧下滑 With most of the world in recession China s exports will continue to slide this year Nomura forecasts a drop of 6 the first annual decline for more than 25 years Imports on the other hand are expected to increase By mid year the government s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery If so China s trade surplus will shrink in 2009 随着全球大部分地区陷入衰退 中国的出口今年将继续下滑 野村证券预测的下滑是 6 为 25 年来的首次下滑 另 一方面 进口预计将增长 到年中时 政府计划的基础设施投入大幅增长将会推动原材料和机械进口 这样的话 中 国 2009 年的贸易顺差将会缩水 The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America s new government it would also do little to help producers China s problem is weak foreign demand not competitiveness The best way for China to support its economy and to help unwind global trade imbalances is to bolster domestic demand 出口剧减加上随之而来的中国南方的失业会导致政府考虑人民币贬值 但这将不仅激起美国新政府的保护主义反弹 对生产者也帮助甚小 中国的问题是在于疲软的国外需求 而不是竞争力 支持中国经济乃至帮助全球贸易摆脱不平 衡的方法 是加强内需 One piece of good news this week is that following interest rate cuts and the government s scrapping of credit restrictions total bank loans jumped by 19 in the 12 months to December up from growth of 14 last summer China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months If that is sustained it could help to boost domestic spending 本周的一个好消息是 随着减息和政府去除信贷限制 银行信贷总额到 12 月的 12 个月中从去年夏天的 14 猛增 19 中国也许是最近几个月内世界大经济体中唯一出现信贷增长加速的地方 如果增速持续 它将促进内需支出 China certainly cannot rely on exports any more Becoming the world s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards 中国决不能再依赖出口 如果全球贸易持续下降 成为世界最大的出口国亦将无益 三 China s stimulus Got a light 经济复苏已被点燃 China s big fiscal package may be starting to work 中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效 ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire says a Chinese proverb With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand The American government which plans to run a budget deficit of 12 of GDP this year has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more Is China one of the misers Its budget published last week showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3 of GDP Was the 4 trillion yuan 586 billion infrastructure package unveiled last November worth 14 of GDP a sham 中国有句民谚 众人拾柴火焰高 随着世界经济陷入 70 年以来的最大危机 要重燃全球需求之火 各国都责无旁 贷 美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值 12 的财政赤字 并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动 中国是其中 的吝啬鬼吗 它在上周公布的预算显示 中国计划运行的财政赤字只占 GDP 的 3 难道去年十一月公布的 4 亿元用 于基础设施建设的措施 相当于 GDP 的 14 仅仅是在忽悠 Beijing s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year but it is still the biggest in the world The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger America started this year with a much bigger deficit America s deficit will increase by more than China s this year largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle 北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字 但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案 尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国 的四倍 但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大 美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字 并且年内赤字增长 将高于中国 这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收 财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以 适应经济圈的冲击 In China however even this would understate the true stimulus because some public infrastructure investment will be done by state owned firms or local governments and financed by banks Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment tax cuts consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3 of GDP in 2009 Adding in bank financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4 of GDP 然而在中国 经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案 因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金 国有公司或地方政府 实施的 瑞银的陶旺 音 预计 新的基础设施建设 减税 消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到 GDP3 的 09 年中央政府刺激方案 如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出 整个刺激方案将占到 GDP 的 4 Chinese investment in railways roads and power grids is already booming In the first two months of this year total fixed investment was 30 higher in real terms than a year earlier and investment in railways tripled China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment rather than consumption but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand 中国在铁路 公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开 今年头两个月内 固定投资总额较去年同期增长 30 铁路投 资增长了 3 倍 很多批评认为 中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费 但就短期来看 在中国这是提高国内需求最 立竿见影的方式 What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending namely monetary policy Since the start of last year China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America s Federal Reserve has New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1 6 in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand But this is not true deflation where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit Bank lending grew by 24 over the past year The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch though some of the lending is of the state directed sort 那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样 从去年年初开始 中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半 新 的统计数字显示 到二月 消费品价格较去年下降了 1 6 从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩 这似乎意味着中国在提高 需求方面做的尚且不够 但其实 这并不是真正的通货紧缩 真正的通缩情况下 货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而 萎缩 去年 银行借贷增长了 24 对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率 而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生 中国 作为世界上少有的几个国家 其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升 尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的 China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing By allowing the yuan to rise by 18 in trade weighted terms over the past 12 months Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world 中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划 还通过让人民币在过去 12 个月内升值 18 贸易加权考虑在内 部分促进了世界货币经济增长 The real question is whether China s stimulus is big enough Exports fell by a sharper than expected 26 in the year to February and may yet drop further The 12 month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3 8 in the first two months of 2009 and retail sales growth slowed to 15 But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand As well as the increases in investment and bank lending car sales and electricity consumption have picked up Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8 growth this year But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble it will supply another fiscal boost 真正的问题是 中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大 到今年二月 年出口额下降远超预期 达 26 并且可能继 续下挫 工业生产 12 个月增幅在 09 年头两个月已将至 3 8 零售业增长放缓至 15 但是仍然有一些国内需求复 苏的暂时性指标 除了投资和银行贷款增长外 汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振 野村证券的孙明春 音 认为 经济刺激方案能够实现 8 的年度经济增长 但是政府已经明确表示 如果经济持续疲软 将会提供另外的财政提振 方案 Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8 this year but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving all the more reason to speed up such policies If not even China s fire could burn out 这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到 8 但如果全球需求持续悲观 增速便难以维持 对于中国而言 出口 转内销的需要已经更加紧迫 中国官员正确地表示 将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款 使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺 否则 即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭 四 The economy s stumble 经济的绊足 Air pocket or second dip 气囊保护还是二次沦陷 Oct 8th 2009 WASHINGTON DC From The Economist print edition A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9 月经济大跌 新刺激方案提上日程 AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures Non farm employment sank by 263 000 which was 62 000 more than in August and the unemployment rate rose by 0 1 to 9 8 Car sales tumbled as the federal cash for clunkers programme expired Manufacturing activity cooled a bit 根据最新统计数据 从春季开始一路高歌猛进的美国经济在 9 月大幅下跌 非农业职位减少了 26 3 万个 降幅较 8 月 增加了 6 2 万个 失业率升至 9 8 增幅 0 1 汽车销量在联邦 旧车换现金 计划结束后陡降 制造业略有放缓 All this is probably an air pocket overall economic output almost ce