The Truth about the Environment

The Truth about the Environment For many environmentalists the world seems to be getting worse They have developed a hit list our main fears that natural resources are running out that the population is ever growing leaving less and less to eat that species are becoming extinct in vast numbers and that the planet s air and water are becoming ever more polluted But a quick look at the facts shows a different picture First energy and other natural resources have become more abundant not less so since the book The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by a group of scientists Second more food is now produced per head of the world s population than at any time in history Fewer people them are expected to dis appear in the next 50 years not 25 50 as has so often been predicted And finally most forms of environmental pollution either appear to have been exaggerated or are transient associated with the early phase of industrialisation and therefore best cured not by restricting economic growth but by accelerating it One form of pollution the release of greenhouse gases that causes global warming does appear to be a phenomenon that is going to extend well into our future but its total impact is unlikely to pose a devastating problem A bigger problem may well turn out to be an inappropriate response to it Yet opinion polls suggest that many people nurture the belief that environmental standards are declining and four factors seem to cause this disjunction between perception and reality One is the lopsidedness built into scientific research Scientific funding goes mainly to areas with many problems That may be wise policy but it will also create an impression that many more potential problems exist than is the case Secondly environmental groups need to be noticed by the mass media They also need to keep the money rolling in Understandably perhaps they sometimes overstate their arguments In 1997 for example the World Wide Fund for nature issued a press release entitled Two third of the world s forest lost forever The truth turns out to be nearer 20 Though these groups are run overwhelmingly by selfless folk they nevertheless share many of the characteristics of scepticism to environmental lobbying as they do to lobby groups in other fields A trade organisation arguing for say weaker pollution controls is instantly seen as self interested Yet a green organisation opposing such a weakening is seen as altruistic even if an impartial view of the controls in question might suggest they are doing more harm than good A third source of confusion is the attitude of the media People are clearly more curious about bad news than good Newspapers and broadcasters are there to provide what the public wants That however can lead to significant distortions of perception An example was America s encounter with EI Nino in 1997 and 1998 This climatic phenomenon was accused of working tourism causing allergies melting the ski slopes and causing 22 deaths However according to an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society the damage it did was estimated at US 4 billion but the benefits amounted to some US 19 billion These came from higher winter temperatures which saved an estimated 850 lives reduced heating costs and diminished spring floods caused by meltwaters The fourth factor is poor individual perception People worry that the endless rise in the amount of stuff everyone throws away will cause the world to run out of places to dispose of waste Yet even if the America s trash output continues to rise as it has done in the past and even if the American population doubles by 2100 all the rubbish America produces through the entire 21st century will still take up only one 12 000th of the area of the entire United States So what of globe warming As we know carbon dioxide emissions are causing the planet to warm The best estimates are that the temperatures will rise by 2 3 in this century causing considerable problems at a total cost of US 5 000 billion Despite the intuition that something drastic needs to be done about such a costly problem ecnomic analyses clearly show it will be far more expensive to cut carbon dioxide emissions radically than to pay the costs of adaptation to the increased temperature increase of 1 9 degrees Or to put it another way the temperature increase that the planet would have experienced in 2094 would be postponed to 2100 So this does not prevent global warming but merely buys the world six years Yet the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions for the United States alone will be higher than the cost of solving the world s single most pressing health problem providing universal access to clean drinking water and sanitation Such measures would have experienced in 2094 would be postponed to 2100 So this does not prevent global warming but merely buys and world six years Yet the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions for the United States alone will be higher than the cost of solving the world s single most pressing health problem providing universal access to clean drinking water and sanitation Such measures would avoid 2 million deaths every year and prevent half a billion people from becoming seriously ill It is crucial that we look at the facts if we want to make the best possible decisions for the future It may be costly to be overly optimistic but more costly still to be too pessimistic 环境的真相环境的真相 对于许多环保人士对于许多环保人士 世界似乎变得更糟 世界似乎变得更糟 他们已他们已 经开发出一个黑名单我们的主要担忧经开发出一个黑名单我们的主要担忧 自然资源自然资源 耗尽耗尽 这是日益增长的人口这是日益增长的人口 留下越来越少吃留下越来越少吃 这这 物种灭绝是在大量物种灭绝是在大量 地球的空气和水越来越污染 地球的空气和水越来越污染 但是快速查看一下事实显示了一个不同的画面 但是快速查看一下事实显示了一个不同的画面 首先首先 能源和其他自然资源变得更加丰富能源和其他自然资源变得更加丰富 而不而不 是减少是减少 因为这本书因为这本书 增长的极限增长的极限 出版于出版于19721972 年由一群科学家 其次年由一群科学家 其次 更多的食物现在人均生更多的食物现在人均生 产的世界人口产的世界人口 比历史上任何时候 更少的人他比历史上任何时候 更少的人他 们预计们预计disdis在未来的在未来的5050年内出现年内出现 而不是而不是2525 50 50 常被预测 常被预测 最后最后 大多数形式的环境污染要大多数形式的环境污染要 么似乎被夸大了么似乎被夸大了 或者是瞬态关联与早期阶段的或者是瞬态关联与早期阶段的 工业化工业化 因此最佳治愈不通过限制经济增长因此最佳治愈不通过限制经济增长 但但 通过加速它 一种形式的污染通过加速它 一种形式的污染 释放温室气释放温室气 体导致全球变暖确实似乎是一个现象体导致全球变暖确实似乎是一个现象 将扩展到将扩展到 我们的未来我们的未来 但其总影响不太可能造成毁灭性的但其总影响不太可能造成毁灭性的 问题 一个更大的问题很可能变成一个不恰当问题 一个更大的问题很可能变成一个不恰当 的反应 的反应 然而民调显示许多人培养相信环境标准正在下然而民调显示许多人培养相信环境标准正在下 降降 因为这四个因素似乎感知和现实脱节 因为这四个因素似乎感知和现实脱节 一个是不匀称构建到科学研究 科研经费主要一个是不匀称构建到科学研究 科研经费主要 流入到的地区许多问题 这也许是明智的政策流入到的地区许多问题 这也许是明智的政策 但它还会创建一个印象但它还会创建一个印象 更多潜在的问题存在比更多潜在的问题存在比 是这样 是这样 其次其次 环保团体需要注意到大众媒体 他们也需环保团体需要注意到大众媒体 他们也需 要保持资金滚动要保持资金滚动 我们可以理解我们可以理解 也许也许 他们有时他们有时 会夸大他们的论点 例如会夸大他们的论点 例如 在在19971997年年 世界自然世界自然 基金会发布了一份新闻稿标题为基金会发布了一份新闻稿标题为 世界上世界上2 32 3 的森林永远消失的森林永远消失 事实证明是接近 事实证明是接近20 20 尽管这些组织运行的压倒性的无私的民间尽管这些组织运行的压倒性的无私的民间 他们他们 仍然有许多共同的特征仍然有许多共同的特征 他们怀疑环境游说对游他们怀疑环境游说对游 说团体在其他领域 一个贸易组织主张说团体在其他领域 一个贸易组织主张 说说 较较 弱的污染控制是立即被视为自私自利的 然而弱的污染控制是立即被视为自私自利的 然而 一个绿色组织反对这样一个削弱被看作是利他一个绿色组织反对这样一个削弱被看作是利他 的的 即使一个公正的视图控件的问题可能会建议即使一个公正的视图控件的问题可能会建议 他们是弊大于利 他们是弊大于利 三分之一的困惑是媒体的态度 人们显然更好三分之一的困惑是媒体的态度 人们显然更好 奇坏消息比好消息 报纸和广播公司有提供什奇坏消息比好消息 报纸和广播公司有提供什 么是大众所需要的 然而么是大众所需要的 然而 这可能导致巨大的扭这可能导致巨大的扭 曲的感知 一个例子是美国的遭遇在曲的感知 一个例子是美国的遭遇在19971997和和 19981998年厄尔尼诺现象 这种气候现象被指控工年厄尔尼诺现象 这种气候现象被指控工 作旅游作旅游 导致过敏导致过敏 融化的滑雪场融化的滑雪场 造成造成2222人死亡 人死亡 然而然而 根据一篇在美国气象学会公报根据一篇在美国气象学会公报 损坏它并损坏它并 估计大约是估计大约是4040亿美元亿美元 但福利达到约但福利达到约190190亿美元 亿美元 这些来自更高的冬季气温这些来自更高的冬季气温 估计挽救了估计挽救了850850人的人的 生命生命 减少加热成本和减少春季洪水造成的融雪减少加热成本和减少春季洪水造成的融雪 第四个因素是贫穷的个体知第四个因素是贫穷的个体知觉 人们担心觉 人们担心 无休无休 止的增长数量的东西人人都扔掉将导致世界耗止的增长数量的东西人人都扔掉将导致世界耗 尽的地方处置废物 然而尽的地方处置废物 然而 即使美国的垃圾产量即使美国的垃圾产量 继续上升继续上升 因为它已经过去进行的因为它已经过去进行的 即使美国人即使美国人 口到口到21002100年年 所有的双打垃圾美国生产在整个所有的双打垃圾美国生产在整个2121 世纪仍只占据一个世纪仍只占据一个 1200012000的面积整个美国 的面积整个美国 全球变暖的什么全球变暖的什么 正如我们所知正如我们所知 二氧化碳排放二氧化碳排放 是造成地球变暖 最好的估计是是造成地球变暖 最好