宏观经济学课件 (4).ppt

1 Chapter5ConditionalConvergenceandLong RunEconomicGrowth 2 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice 3 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice Threevariablesthatinfluencedk Savingrate s Technologylevel A Populationgrowthrate n 4 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice Abroaderviewofthetechnologylevel A Productivitydependsonthedegreeofmarketefficiency Greaterinternationalopennesstendstoraiseproductivity Productivitytendstoriseifgovernmentsdobetteratmaintainingprivatepropertyrights ifthejudicialsystemrunsmoresmoothly andifofficialcorruptiondeclines 5 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth k k k 0 k Theideaistomeasureanarrayofvariables eachofwhichinfluencesacountry ssteady statecapitalperworker k 6 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth First ifweholdfixedk byholdingfixedthevariablesthatinfluencek thegrowthrateofcapitalperworker k k shouldexhibitconvergence Thatis forgivenk alowerk 0 shouldmatchupwithahigher k k Second anyvariablethatraisesorlowersk shouldcorrespondinglyraiseorlower k kforgivenk 0 7 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth 8 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Holdconstantalistofvariablesthatinfluencek ameasureofthesavingrate thefertilityrateforthetypicalwoman whichinfluencespopulationgrowth subjectivemeasuresofmaintenanceoftheruleoflawanddemocracy thesizeofgovernment asgaugedbytheshareofgovernmentconsumptionexpendituresinGDP 9 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth theextentofinternationalopenness measuredbythevolumeofexportsandimports changesinthetermsoftrade whichistheratioofpricesofexportedgoodstopricesofimportedgoods measuresofinvestmentineducationandhealth theaveragerateofinflation whichisanindicatorofmacroeconomicpolicy 10 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth GrowthrateofrealGDPperpersonrisesinresponsetoahighersavingrate lowerfertility bettermaintenanceoftheruleoflaw smallergovernmentconsumption greaterinternationalopenness improvementinthetermsoftrade greaterquantityandqualityofeducation betterhealth andlowerinflation 11 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Democracyhasalesscleareffect ifacountrystartsfromatotalitariansystem increasesindemocracyseemtofavoreconomicgrowth However afteracountryreachesamid rangeofdemocracy characteristicinrecentyearsofIndonesia Turkey andseveralplacesinLatinAmerica furtherdemocratizationseemstoreducegrowth 12 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Numerousadditionalvariablesthatinfluencegrowth scopeoffinancialmarkets thedegreeofincomeinequality theextentofofficialcorruption theroleofcolonialandlegalorigins Theintensityofreligiousparticipationandbeliefs 13 ExamplesofConditionalConvergence By1946 Japan Germany France andothercountriesinEuropesufferedsharpreductionsinphysicalcapital whichresultedinalowstartingvalueofcapitalperworker k 0 Inthe1960s manyEastAsiancountries suchasSouthKoreaandTaiwan werepoorand therefore hadlowvaluesofk 0 14 Long RunEconomicGrowth SolowmodeldoesnotexplainhowcapitalandrealGDPperworker kandy growinthelongrun ThemodeldoesnotexplainhowrealGDPperpersongrewataround2 peryearforwelloveracenturyintheUnitedStatesandotherrichcountries 15 Long RunEconomicGrowth Weallowfortechnologicalprogressinthesenseofcontinuinggrowthofthetechnologylevel A Agrowsinanexogenousmanner 16 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Thediminishingaverageproductofcapital y k playsamajorroleinthetransitionphaseoftheSolowgrowthmodel k k s y k n 17 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Interpretcapitalbroadly especiallytoincludehumancapitalintheformsofformaleducation on the jobtraining andhealth Includeformsofcapitalthatareoftenownedbygovernment suchasinfrastructurecapitalusedfortransportationandutilities 18 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Ifwedoublenotonlymachinesandbuildingsbutalsohumanandinfrastructurecapital realGDPmayroughlydouble Ifrawlaborisnotacriticalinputtoproduction capital smarginalandaverageproductsmaynotdeclineascapitalaccumulates 19 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital 20 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital y k A k k sA n 21 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital 22 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress AllowforcontinuingincreasesinA Thisregularprocessofimprovementsinthetechnologyiscalledtechnologicalprogress A A g 23 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 24 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 25 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 26 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 27 可编辑 28 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress Sincetheaverageproductofcapital y k isconstantduringsteady stategrowth thenumeratoroftheratio y mustgrowatthesamerateasthedenominator k y y k k 29 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 30 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 31 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 32 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress Exogenoustechnologicalprogressattherate A A gallowsforlong termgrowthinrealGDPandcapitalperworkerattherateg 1 Thetechnologicalprogressoffsetsthetendencyfortheaverageproductofcapital y k tofallwhenkrisesand thereby allowsforlong termgrowthinrealGDPandcapitalperworker 33 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress GrowthrateofrealGDPperpersonintheUnitedStatesaveraged2 0 peryearfrom1869to2003 Ifwethinkof astheshareofcapitalincomeandusevaluesfor between1 3and1 2 therequiredvalueforgisalittleover1 peryear 34 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 35 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 36 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 37 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 38 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 39 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress Romerandothersdevelopedarecalledendogenousgrowthmodels Themodelexplainstherateoftechnologicalprogress ThetechnologicalprogressleadstolongrungrowthofrealGDPandcapitalperworker 40 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress Mostendogenousgrowthmodelsfocusonbusiness sinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopmentorR D ThisendogeneityoftechnologicalprogressmeansthatwecanusethemodeltounderstandhowgovernmentpoliciesandothervariablesinfluenceR Dinvestmentand thereby therateoftechnologicalprogressandthelong rungrowthrateofrealGDPperperson 41 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress TheoriesoftechnologicalprogressspecifyaconnectionbetweenR Dinvestmentandtheamountoftechnologicaladvance representedbyincreasesinA 42 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress Inmanyrespects R Dinvestmentresemblesthefamiliarinvestmentinphysicalcapital Twoimportantdifferences diminishingreturnsownershiprights 43 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress Intellectualpropertyrights PatentsCopyrights 44 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress PaulRomer 1990 constructedthefirstmodelinwhichR Dinvestmentandintellectualpropertyrightswerelinkedtoatheoryoftechnologicalprogressandeconomicgrowth 45 EndogenousTechnologicalProgress TheprivatereturntoR DinvestmentishigherifthecostsofR Darelowerinrelationtotheeffectsofsuccessfulinnovationsonsalesrevenuesandproductioncosts Theprivatereturnishigherifintellectualpropertyrightsovertheuseofaninventionaremoresecureandlong lasting TheprivatereturnishigherifthegovernmentsubsidizesR Dinvestment 46 TheDiffusionofTechnology Foranindividualcountryorproducer itispossibletoraiseA thetechnologylevelavailabletothatcountryorproducer byimitatingoradaptingsomeoneelse sinnovation Weusethetermdiffusionoftechnologytodescribetheimitationandadaptationofonecountry stechnologybyanothercountry 47 TheDiffusionofTechnology Low incomecountriestendtofocusondiffusionoftechnologyasthewaytoraisetechnologylevels Inonecase amulti nationalfirmfromanadvancedcountryusesanadvancedtechnologyinaforeignsubsidiary Sometimesthetransferoftechnologyoccursthroughobservationandanalysisofproductsexchangedininternationaltrade 48 TheDiffusionofTechnology Thediffusionoftechnologyprovidesanotherreasonwhypoorcountriestendtoconvergetowardrichones Studiesshowthattherateoftechnologicaldiffusiontoadevelopingcountryishigherwhenthecountryhasalotofinternationaltradewithrichcountries higheducationlevels andwell functioninglegalandpoliticalsystems 49 SummarizingWhatWeKnowaboutEconomicGrowth WecanthinkofSolowgrowthmodelashavingtwophases Inthefirstphase capitalandrealGDPperworkerrisefromtheirinitiallevelstotheirsteady statelevels Thesecondphaseisthesteadystate Inchapters3and4 capitalandrealGDPperw