财务管理-第八章-PPT课件

Chapter8StockValuation McGraw Hill Irwin Copyright 2013byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted 8 2 ChapterOutline CommonStockValuationSomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocksTheStockMarkets 8 3 CashFlowsforStockholders Ifyoubuyashareofstock youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows 8 4 One PeriodExample SupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil Inc Youexpectittopaya 2dividendinoneyear andyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor 14atthattime Ifyourequireareturnof20 oninvestmentsofthisrisk whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice 14 2 1 2 13 33OrFV 16 I Y 20 N 1 CPTPV 13 33 8 5 Two PeriodExample Now whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear youexpectadividendof 2 10intwoyearsandastockpriceof 14 70attheendofyear2 Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay PV 2 1 2 2 10 14 70 1 2 2 13 33 8 6 Three PeriodExample Finally whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2 youexpecttoreceiveadividendof 2 205attheendofyear3andthestockpriceisexpectedtobe 15 435 Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay PV 2 1 2 2 10 1 2 2 2 205 15 435 1 2 3 13 33 8 7 DevelopingTheModel YoucouldcontinuetopushbacktheyearinwhichyouwillsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividendsSo howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments 8 8 EstimatingDividends SpecialCases ConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodThepriceiscomputedusingthegrowingperpetuitymodelSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventuallyThepriceiscomputedusingamultistagemodel 8 9 ZeroGrowth Ifdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever thenthisisaperpetuityandthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturedividendscanbefoundusingtheperpetuityformulaP0 D RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya 0 50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10 withquarterlycompounding Whatistheprice P0 50 1 4 20 8 10 DividendGrowthModel Dividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod P0 D1 1 R D2 1 R 2 D3 1 R 3 P0 D0 1 g 1 R D0 1 g 2 1 R 2 D0 1 g 3 1 R 3 Withalittlealgebraandsomeserieswork thisreducesto 8 11 DGM Example1 SupposeBigD Inc justpaidadividendof 0 50pershare Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2 peryear Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15 onassetsofthisrisk howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor P0 50 1 02 15 02 3 92 8 12 DGM Example2 SupposeTBPirates Inc isexpectedtopaya 2dividendinoneyear Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5 peryearandtherequiredreturnis20 whatistheprice P0 2 2 05 13 33Whyisn tthe 2inthenumeratormultipliedby 1 05 inthisexample 8 13 StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth g D1 2 R 20 8 14 StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn R D1 2 g 5 8 15 Example8 3GordonGrowthCompany I GordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof 4nextperiod anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6 peryear Therequiredreturnis16 Whatisthecurrentprice P0 4 16 06 40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear sowedon tmultiplythedividendby1 g 8 16 Example8 3 GordonGrowthCompany II Whatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4 P4 D4 1 g R g D5 R g P4 4 1 06 4 16 06 50 50Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod 50 50 40 1 return 4 return 6 PV 40 FV 50 50 N 4 CPTI Y 6 Thepriceisassumedtogrowatthesamerateasthedividends 8 17 NonconstantGrowthExample I Supposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20 inoneyearandby15 intwoyears Afterthat dividendswillincreaseatarateof5 peryearindefinitely Ifthelastdividendwas 1andtherequiredreturnis20 whatisthepriceofthestock RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends 8 18 NonconstantGrowthExample II ComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1 1 1 2 1 20D2 1 20 1 15 1 38D3 1 38 1 05 1 449FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2 D3 R g 1 449 2 05 9 66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0 1 20 1 2 1 38 9 66 1 2 2 8 67 8 19 QuickQuiz PartI Whatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof 2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15 Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3 peryear beginningwiththenextdividend Therequiredreturnstaysat15 8 20 UsingtheDGMtoFindR StartwiththeDGM 8 21 Example FindingtheRequiredReturn Supposeafirm sstockissellingfor 10 50 Itjustpaida 1dividend anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5 peryear Whatistherequiredreturn R 1 1 05 10 50 05 15 Whatisthedividendyield 1 1 05 10 50 10 Whatisthecapitalgainsyield g 5 8 22 StockValuationUsingMultiples AnothercommonvaluationapproachistomultiplyabenchmarkPEratiobyearningspershare EPS tocomeupwithastockpricePt BenchmarkPEratio EPStThebenchmarkPEratioisoftenanindustryaverageorbasedonacompany sownhistoricalvaluesTheprice salesratiocanalsobeused 8 23 Example StockValuationUsingMultiples Supposeacompanyhadearningspershareof 3overthepastyear TheindustryaveragePEratiois12 Usethisinformationtovaluethiscompany sstockprice Pt 12x 3 36pershare 8 24 Table8 1 StockValuationSummary 8 25 FeaturesofCommonStock VotingRightsProxyvotingClassesofstockOtherRightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiveright firstshotatnewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired 8 26 DividendCharacteristics DividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmuntiladividendhasbeendeclaredbytheBoardConsequently afirmcannotgobankruptfornotdeclaringdividendsDividendsandTaxesDividendpaymentsarenotconsideredabusinessexpense therefore theyarenottaxdeductibleThetaxationofdividendsreceivedbyindividualsdependsontheholdingperiodDividendsreceivedbycorporationshaveaminimum70 exclusionfromtaxableincome 8 27 FeaturesofPreferredStock DividendsStateddividendthatmustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholdersDividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirm andpreferreddividendscanbedeferredindefinitelyMostpreferreddividendsarecumulative anymissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaidPreferredstockgenerallydoesnotcarryvotingrights 8 28 StockMarket Dealersvs BrokersNewYorkStockExchange NYSE LargeststockmarketintheworldLicenseholders 1 366 CommissionbrokersSpecialistsFloorbrokersFloortradersOperationsFlooractivity 8 29 NASDAQ Notaphysicalexchange computer basedquotationsystemMultiplemarketmakersElectronicCommunicationsNetworksThreelevelsofinformationLevel1 medianquotes registeredrepresentativesLevel2 viewquotes brokers dealersLevel3 viewandupdatequotes dealersonlyLargeportionoftechnologystocks 8 30 WorktheWebExample ElectronicCommunicationsNetworksprovidetradinginNASDAQsecuritiesClickonthewebsurferandvisitInstinet 8 31 Whatinformationisprovidedinthestockquote ClickonthewebsurfertogotoBloombergforcurrentstockquotes ReadingStockQuotes 8 32 QuickQuiz PartII Youobserveastockpriceof 18 75 Youexpecta