商务英语课件ch03updated

41,IntroductionToBusiness4thEdition,Chapter3AssessingEconomicConditions管理学院市场学系吴德亮,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,42,BusinessEnvironment,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,43,LearningObjectives,Identifymacroeconomicfactorsthataffectbusinessperformance.Explainhowmarketpricesaredetermined.Explainhowthegovernmentinfluenceseconomicconditions.,44,AssessingEconomicConditions,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,45,EconomicConditions,Reflectthelevelofproductionandconsumptionforaparticularcountry,area,orindustryMacroeconomicconditionsOveralleconomicstateofacountryMicroeconomicconditionsFocusonconditionsinaparticularbusinessorindustry,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,46,ImpactofEconomicConditions,Economicconditionscanaffect:RevenuesofabusinessExpensesofabusinessTotalvalueofabusiness,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,47,ImpactofEconomicConditions,Somefirmsaremoresensitivetochangesineconomicconditionsthanothers:Demandforfastfooddemandisnotverysensitivetodecliningeconomicconditions.Demandfornewautomobilesismoresensitivetoweakeconomicconditionsthanfoodproducts.,48,HarleyDavidsonExample,Demandformotorcyclesisstrongerwhen:Theeconomyisstrong.Customershavemoreincometobuymotorcycles.HighdemandforHarleyDavidsonsmotorcycles:Generatesgreaterrevenue.Improvescompanyperformance.,49,HarleyDavidsonExample,Demandformotorcyclesisweakerwhen:Theeconomyisweak.Customershavelessincometobuymotorcycles.LowerdemandforHarleyDavidsonsmotorcycles:Generateslessrevenue.Weakenscompanyperformance.,410,HarleyDavidsonExample,HarleyDavidsontriestopredictdemandsoitwillhaveasufficientsupplyofmotorcyclestomeetfuturedemand.Demandformotorcyclesdependsoneconomicconditions.Numberofmotorcyclesproducedalsodependsoneconomicconditions.Governmentpoliciesalsoaffecteconomicconditions.,411,HarleyDavidsonExample,HarleyDavidsonmustdetermine:Howprevailingeconomicconditionswillaffectthedemandforthemotorcyclesitproduces.Howprevailinggovernmentpolicieswillaffectthedemandforitsmotorcycles.,412,IMacroeconomicEffects,Theperformanceofmostfirmsdependsonthreemacroeconomicfactors:EconomicgrowthChangesinthegenerallevelofeconomicactivityInflationIncreasesingenerallevelofpricesoverspecificperiodoftimeInterestratesChangesinthecostofborrowedmoney,413,1,EconomicGrowth,Whenthechangeinthegenerallevelofeconomicactivityishigherthannormal:TotalincomelevelofallU.S.workersisrelativelyhigh.Thereisahighervolumeofspendingonproductsandservices.Firmsthatsellproductsandservicesshouldgeneratehigherrevenues.,414,Recession,OccurswheneconomicgrowthisnegativefortwoconsecutivequartersLowersdemandforproductsandservicesReducestherevenueoffirmsthatsellproductsandservices.Cancausefirmstoshutdownfactoriesinresponsetoloweconomicgrowth.GeneralMotorsFord,415,IndicatorsofEconomicGrowth,GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)TheleveloftotalproductionofproductsandservicesintheeconomyTotalmarketvalueofallfinalproductsandservicesproducedintheU.S.AggregateExpendituresTotalamountofexpenditures,416,IndicatorsofEconomicGrowth,IntheU.S.,theseindicatorsarecloselyrelated:Highlevelofconsumerspendingreflectsalargedemandforproductsandservices.Totalproductionleveldependsontotaldemandforproductsandservices.,417,AlternativeIndicatorsofEconomicGrowth,UnemploymentlevelIndustrialproductionlevelNewhousingstartsPersonalincomelevel,418,UnemploymentLevels,FrictionalunemploymentPeoplewhoarebetweenjobs.SeasonalunemploymentPeoplewhoseservicesarenotneededduringsomeseasons.,CyclicalunemploymentPeopleunemployedduetopooreconomicconditions.Bestindicatorofeconomicconditions.StructuralunemploymentPeoplewhodonothaveadequateskills.,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,419,2,Inflation,Anincreaseinthegenerallevelofpricesofproductsandservicesoveraspecifiedperiodoftime.Estimatedbymeasuringpercentagechangesintheconsumerpriceindex(CPI).CPIisamarketbasketofpricesonawidevarietyofconsumerproducts:Groceryproducts,housing,gasoline,medicalservices,electricity,etc.,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,420,ImpactofInflation,CanaffectacompanysoperatingexpensesCanincreasecostofsuppliesandmaterials.Canimpactindexedwages(laborcost).Higherinflationcancauselargeincreasesinoperatingexpenses.CanaffectacompanysrevenuesCompaniesmaychargehigherpricestocompensatefortheirhigherexpenses.,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,421,Cost-PushInflation,Occurswhenfirmsmustchargehigherpricesbecausetheirproduction(input)costsarehigher.Changeinpriceofoilimpactsgasolinepricesandtransportationcosts.Changeinaluminumpricesimpactspackagingcostofbeerproduction.Changeinpulppricesimpactsthecostofpapertowelproduction.,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,422,Demand-PullInflation,Occurswhenproductandservicespricesarepulledupbyconsumerdemand.Strongconsumerdemandcancauseshortagesintheproductionofproducts.Firmsthatanticipateshortagesmayincreasepricesfortheirproducts.Strongconsumerdemandmayputpressureonwagesandreduceunemployment.Firmsmayincreasepricestorecoverhigheroperatingexpenses.,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,423,3,InterestRates,RepresentthecostofborrowingmoneyFirmsinterestexpenseisbasedonmarketinterestratesandcanhavesignificantimpactonafirmsprofitability.Firmsmaypostponeexpansionandotherprojectswheninterestratesaretoohigh.InterestratesalsoimpactafirmsrevenueTheincreasedcostoffinancingnewhomesreducesdemandfornewhomes.Revenuesforconstructionfirmsandequipmentmanufacturersalsodecline.,424,businessonline,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,425,IIMarketPriceDetermination,Marketpriceofaproductisinfluencedby:ThetotaldemandforthatproductbyallcustomersSupplyofthatproductproducedbyfirmsTheinteractionbetweendemandandsupplydeterminesthemarketprice.,426,DemandandSupply,Demandschedule需求曲线Indicatesthequantityoftheproductthatwouldbedemandedbycustomersateachpossibleprice.Quantitydemandedishigherwhenthepriceislower._QuantityDemanded（Qd:有效需求）,427,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisDeterminedbySupplyandDemand,Exhibit4.6a,428,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisDeterminedbySupplyandDemand,Exhibit4.6b,Copyright2004South-Western.Allrightsreserved.,429,DemandandSupply(contd),Supplyschedule供给曲线Indicatesthequantityoftheproductthatwouldbesupplied(produced)bymanufacturersateachpossibleprice.Quantitysupplied(produced)ishigherwhenthepriceishigher.Quantitysupplied（Qs:有效供给）,430,InteractionofSupplyandDemand,InteractionofdemandandsupplyschedulesdeterminesthemarketpriceSurplus（过剩）:thequantitysuppliedbyfirmsismorethanthequantitydemandedbycustomers.Shortage（短缺）:thequantitysuppliedbyfirmsislessthanthequantitydemandedbycustomers.Equilibriumprice（均衡价格）:occurswhenquantitiessuppliedanddemandedareequal.,431,ImpactofShiftsinDemand,Changingconditionscancauseademandscheduleorsupplyscheduleforaspecificproducttochange.Changestheequilibriumpriceofaproduct.Increasedproductpopularity(demand)resultsinashortageoftheproduct.Theshortageiscorrectedwhenthepriceisincreasedtothelevelatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded.,432,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinDemand,Exhibit4.7,433,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinDemand,Exhibit4.7,434,ImpactofShiftsinSupply,Changeinsupplycanimpacttheequilibriumpriceoftheproduct.Technologicalimprovementscanleadtoreducedproductioncostscausingfirmstoproducealargersupplyatanygivenprice.Thesupplyschedulechangesandyieldsasurpluswhichcanbesoldonlybyloweringtheprice.Thesurplusiseliminatedwhenthepricedecreasestoalevelatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded.,435,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinSupply,Exhibit4.8,436,HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinSupply,Exhibit4.8,437,FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices,ConsumerincomeDeterminestheamountofproductsandservicesindividualscanpurchaseHighlevelsofeconomicgrowthresultinmoreincomeforconsumers.Increaseddemandcausesdemandscheduleshiftsandpriceincreases.Whenconsumerincomedeclines:Demanddecreasesandcreatesasurplusasthedemandscheduleshiftsandpricesdecrease.,438,FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices,Changesinconsumertastesandpreferences:ImpactthequantityofproductsandservicesdemandedbyconsumersIncreaseddemandleadstopriceincrease.Decreaseddemandleadstopricedecrease.,439,FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices,ChangeinproductionexpensesAdecreaseinexpensescanleadtoincreaseinquantitysuppliedandcreateasurplus.Firmsmustlowerpricesinordertoeliminatethesurplus.Anincreaseinexpensescanleadtodecreaseinquantitysuppliedandcreateashortage.Firmscanincreasepricesuntilshortageiscorrected.,440,IIIowthegovernmentinfluenceseconomicconditions,，MonetarypolicyMadebytheFederalReserveSystem“Fed”isthecentralbankoftheU.S.DecisionsbyFedaboutthemoneysupply:Impactinterestrates.Impactfirmsinterestexpenses.Impactdemandforproductspurchasedwithborrowedfunds.,441,FedsImpactonInterestRates,MaintainsfundsoutsidethebankingsystemthatarenotloanabletofirmsorindividualsUsedtobuyTreasurysecuritiesheldbyindividualsandcompaniesProvideindividualsandfirmswithnewfundsfordepositincommercialbanksDepositsincreasethemoneysupplyandthesupplyofloanablefunds.Shouldresultindecreasedinterestratesandstimulateeconomicgrowth.,442,FedsImpactonInterestRates,Fedcanpullfundsoutofcommercialbanksandotherfinancialinstitutionstoreducethemoneysupply.Reducesthesupplyoffundsavailabletolendtoborrowers(shortage)causing:Interestratestoincrease.Individualsandcompaniestoborrowless.Spendinglevelstodecrease.Thelevelofinflationtodecline.,443,，FiscalPolicy,Howthefederalgovernmentsetstaxratesandspendsmoney:PersonalincometaxratesReducedtaxratesproducehigherafter-taxincomesthatstimulatespendingandincreasedemandforproductsandservices.CorporatetaxesImpactsafter-taxearningsExcisetaxesTaxesonparticularproductsthatincreasepricesconsumerspayfortheseproducts.,444,FiscalPolicy,SetstheamountsoffederaltaxrevenuegovernmentandfederalspendingFederalbudgetdeficitOccurswhenfederalspendingexceedsfederaltaxesandotherrevenuecollectedbythefederalgovernment.Governmentborrowingtomakeupthedifferencecreateshigherdemandforloanablefundsandcandriveupinterestrates.,445,ExampleofHowaBudgetDeficitOccurs,Exhibit4.9,446,HowGovernmentPoliciesAffectBusinessPerformance,Exhibit4.10,447,FederalGovernmentsDilemma,Arestrictivemonetaryorfiscalpolicycanbeusedto:MaintainlowrateofeconomicgrowthPreventinflationarypressurecausedbyexcessivedemandCanalsocreateunemploymentAlsorequiresatrade-off,448,ChapterSummary,Firmperformancedependsonthreemacroeconomicfactors:economicgrowth,inflation,andinterestrates.Demandandsupplyconditionsdeterminemarketprices.Federalgovernmentusesmonetaryandfiscalpoliciestoinfluencemacroeconomicconditions.,449,ScanningMacroenvironmentalconditionsfo