巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场贸易追踪第一季度出口疲软预示着gdp增长疲软-20190417-8页

1、Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this reportMARKET ECONOMICS | EM STRATEGY | EM ECONOMICSEM trade tracker: weak Q1 exports hint at soft GDP growthOur EM exports growth tracker points to a 0.1% y/y contraction in Q1, compared to a 8.0% y/y expansion in Q4.Trade

2、looks likely to stay soft. Contracting Chinese imports, which correlate strongly with EM exports (see Fig. 1), could be the result of a new approach to stimulus by China, now focused on tax cuts and publicKEY MESSAGESWe are launching our EM exports growth tracker, which points to a contraction in Q1

3、.The bounce back in Chinas GDP growth and exports did not help much, as Chinese imports fell due to a change in domestic policy stimulus.The slowdown in trade data also suggests weaker GDP growth in Q1 among EM, ex-China.Uncertainties persist for 2019. Policy-wise, despite somewhat lower risk compar

4、ed to H2 2018, the US, EU and China still need to solve their trade differences.services,tead of investments (see China: Growthstabilisation lowers odds of more stimulus). In addition, advanced economies should slow, tempering hopes of a near-term lift to trade.Less trade growth also suggests a slow

5、ing economy in many EM. Indeed, our separate trackingof early reporters of activity data suggests EM ex- China GDP growth slowed to 0.6% q/q sa (non-annualised) in Q1, compared to 1.0% in Q4 consistent with our trace data (see Fig. 2).MARKET VIEWOur strategy teams BNPP-EM economic surprise index ind

6、icates that EM economic surprises have moved to the upside since the beginning of the year, with growth stabilizing. The move, however, seems to have been driven by China (see BNPP-EM economic surprise index up driven by China and China Positive PMIs for more).Despite a possible slowdown in trade, w

7、e highlight that our analysis of flows, USD funding, rollover risk, financial transmission channels and the impact of corporate HY all point to a supportive scenario for EM.Fig. 1: BNPP EM exports growth monitor (% y/y, 3mma)Fig. 2: EM real GDP growth and trade growth (% q/q, sa, non-annualised)BNPP

8、s EM exports includes early reports of exports data (Brazil, Chile, China,BNPPs EM GDP growth tracker includes actual data for 20 of the main emerging economies, up until Q4; Q1 forecast is based on input from BNPPs EM early reporters activity tracker.Sources: Macrobond, national statistics bureaus,

9、 BNP ParibasIndonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico, and Indonesia),weighted by the correlation to overall trade growth.Sources: Macrobond, national statistics and customs bureaus, BNP Paribas.Marcelo Carvalho, Global Head of Emerging Markets ResearchLuiz Eduardo Peixoto, Emerging Markets Ec

10、on omist | BNP Paribas London branch| FOCUS17/04/20191FOCUSEMERGING MARKETS17 April 2019每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。；扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。MARKET ECONOMICS | EM ECONOMICSTrade policy uncertainty remahighExports growth is generally synch

11、ronised by region (Fig. 3). In Q1, while exports from Latam and CEEMEA decelerated sharply from Q4, EM Asia entered negative territory.Looking ahead, regional perspectives also seem to vary from within. In Latam, Argentina should benefit from the strong season for grain crops after a drought last ye

12、ar, but lower iron ore output will likely dent Brazilian exports, on the back of stoppages in relevant mines (though partly offset by higher prices).In Asia, much will depend on the extent of recovery of Chinese demand, which will also impact CEE manufacturing hubs linked to Germany. The GCC could s

13、ee trade values rising due to higher oil prices, but volumes could fall further amid OPEC production cuts and geopolitics.Fig. 3: Exports growth (% 3mma y/y), by regionSources: National statistics bureaus, Macrobond, BNP ParibasWe also flag that policy uncertainty remahighFig. 4: Policy uncertainty

14、and trade tensions (long term average=100)(Fig. 4). Despite more encouraging signs lately, thestate of foreign change rapidly.affairsandtradenegotiationscan600US trade policy uncertainty500The US-China tariffs dispute appears to have becomeless acute (see China Growth through ight). We400also point

15、to a spat with the EU over trade rules, now more evident. Finally, the approval of the USMCA by the US and Canadian parliaments is still not a done deal.And its not only the US. In Asia, India and Japan have recently joined the chorus questioning ChinasGlobal economic policy uncertainty (GDP weighte

16、d)300200100trade policies. In Europe, Brexit uncertainty elections reduces the odds of more trade deals.Trade uncertainty can also hurt investment.and008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1819ThisSources: Bloomberg and Baker, Bloom, and Davis, BNP Paribasincreases downside risks for a range of EM economies

17、 and support the GDP growth cuts made by our team recently Brazil, China, Mexico, and South Africa areFig. 5: EM 2019 real GDP growth forecasts (26titutions frequency distribution, forecasts for 10 EMs weighted by GDP)examples which now set us more consensus (see Fig. 5).In turn, weaker investment c

18、ouldfirmly below76543210hurt exportprospects. Mexico is one example, after two years of prolonged NAFTA negotiations. With utilisation capacityremanear highs among the main exporters, it hasmade the manufacturing sector benefit less from more demand from the US.BNP Paribas, as of April 20BNP Paribas

19、,9 as of Q4 20183.03.54.04.5Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Marcelo Carvalho, Global Head of Emerging Markets ResearchLuiz Eduardo Peixoto, Emerging Markets Economist | BNP Paribas London branch | FOCUS17/04/20192Our EM exports growth tracker includes early reports of global exports data. Countries

20、included are China, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Vietnam, Singapore, and Mexico. Index weights are set by the correlation to EM GDP growth, tead of simply trade weights. In addition, German order-books levels, taken from industrial confidence data, were also included,

21、 given their correlations to trade growth in CEE countries.We also highlight our strategy teams BNPP economic surprise index and BNPP-EM FX option monitor.Legal NoticeThis document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies (collectively “BNPP”);

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