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附录An Analytical Study on the Resource Recycling Potentials ofUrban and Rural Domestic Waste in ChinaAbstractThe total wet-basis weight of urban and rural domestic waste in China is about 500,000,000 tons every year, 60% of which comes from dry-basis waste (about 300,000,000 tons). Single-composition, clean waste that is separated on a dry basis, especially the low-value components such as food waste and plastics, has huge resource recycling potentials. The potential added values from resource recycling of the 500,000,000 tons of urban and rural domestic waste would be around RMB 926.17 billion, RMB 1,065.98 billion and RMB 1,205.81 billion upon three prices of granulated organic-inorganic compound fertilizers. A potential value of RMB 1,065.98 billion, for instance, would be 2.26% of Chinas 2011 GDP (RMB 47.1564 trillion), which may make resource recycling of domestic waste one of the large industries. Resource recycling of domestic waste is a major energy-saving and environment-friendly strategic emerging industry in China, and a prioritized management strategy for resource recycling of domestic waste should be established for the maximum resource recycling. Keywords: Domestic waste; Resource recycling; Potential analysis1. Issues The evaluation on resource recycling potentials of urban and rural domestic waste in China is an important basis for a well-drawn technology roadmap of domestic waste and workable management policies. According to the dry-basis separation test for urban residential waste, domestic waste includes high-value marketable waste and low-value unmarketable waste, in which paper, bulky furniture and others in the first category may be collected and sold via various channels, whereas those in the second category go to landfills or are burned because of their “uselessness”. According to the World Bank, there will be a vast market for secondhand materials in China, and by 2030, urban waste in China paper and metals in particular will be one of the biggest commodity sources in the world. Domestic studies show that China produces 400,000,000 tons of domestic waste each year, indicating it is time to use waste as a strategic resource. According to the academic community, waste should be known as the one and only growing resource, and the waste industry should be planned as one of the key industries. According to relevant statistics, “renewable resources” that are discarded in Chinese cities every year are valued at RMB 25 billion, and the yearly value of discarded domestic waste “resources” approximates at RMB 125 billion. In China, every year there is a huge amount of domestic waste buried or burned before separation, and its resource recycling potentials need to be further studied. In this paper, the resource recycling potentials of value-added processing and production of dry-basis raw materials from urban and rural domestic waste in China are estimated and analyzed on the basis of the dry-basis separation test and relevant domestic studies.2. Total Weight and Total Dry-basis Weight of Urban and Rural Domestic Waste in China Accurate basic data of the total wet-basis weight and the total dry-basis weight is a necessity for the resource recycling potential analysis of domestic waste. However, all we know about urban domestic waste at present is how much it has been collected and transported instead of being produced, and for rural domestic waste, we lack both. Therefore, we have to estimate the production from the weight of collected and transported waste, and calculate the production of rural domestic waste according to relevant data. 2.1 Annual production of urban domestic waste According to the Ministry of Construction, urban domestic waste that was collected and transported in 654 cities of China amounted to 157,000,000 tons in 2010. The production is supposed to be 25% higher, or, according to Zhang Li Jings conservative estimate, 30% higher. So the actual production of urban domestic waste in the 654 cities may be estimated between 196,250,000 tons and 204,100,000 tons 200,000,000 tons for convenience.2.2. Annual production of rural domestic waste According to a nationwide survey on drinking water and environmental health in rural areas that was jointly organized by the National Patriotic Health Campaign Committee and the Ministry of Health from August 2006 to November 2007, domestic waste was a major part of farmer household waste, the daily production of rural domestic waste was 0.86kg per person, and every year there was nearly 300,000,000 tons of domestic waste produced in Chinas rural areas, of which 1/3 (about 100,000,000 tons) was randomly dumped and seriously polluted the environment. 2.3. Total dry-basis weight of urban and rural domestic wasteThe average water content of urban residential waste in Beijing is 50.19%. Estimated from a water content of 50%, the 200,000,000 tons of urban domestic waste produced in China includes about 100,000,000 tons of water, which means the total dry-basis weight is 100,000,000 tons. Calculated from a water content of 35.79% of rural domestic waste in Beijing, the 300,000,000 tons of rural domestic waste in China is the sum of 107,370,000 tons of water and about 200,000,000 tons of dry-basis waste. In such a case, the annual amount of urban and rural domestic waste in China is about 500,000,000 tons, including more than 200,000,000 tons of water and about 300,000,000 tons of dry-basis waste. 2.4. Reference physical components for evaluation on resource recycling potentials of urban and rural domestic waste The evaluation on the resource recycling potentials of urban domestic waste is based on reference components in Table 1and Table 2, and that of rural domestic waste is based on the findings of Xie Dongming.Table 1. Physical components of domestic waste in the eight urban districts of Beijing, 2007 (wet basis, %)Table 2. Physical components of low-value urban residential wasteTable 3. Physical components of rural domestic waste in China (wet basis, %)3. Estimates on Resource Recycling Potentials of Urban and Rural Domestic Waste Based on the reference components in Tables 1-3, the resource recycling potentials of major domestic waste are estimated as follows. 3.1. Food waste Urban food waste. Urban household food waste are a quite large part of domestic waste (as shown in Table 1, food waste accounted for 66.22% of the domestic waste in the eight urban districts of Beijing in 2007). For convenience, we assume 60% of urban domestic waste is food waste in average, so there would be 120,000,000 tons of food waste in the 200,000,000 tons of urban domestic waste. According to Li Zhenshan et al., the dry weight of food waste is 20-25%, so the annual total dry-basis weight of urban food waste in China would be 27,600,000 tons upon a mean dry weight of 23%. The most appropriate water content for composting is 50-60%, and the produced organic fertilizers weigh 50% lighter than the total, so the potential amount of organic fertilizers from urban domestic waste in China would be 21,390,000 tons in case of a water content of 55% (27,600,000 x 1.55 = 42,780,000/2). According to Table 3, food waste accounts for 24.54% of the total rural domestic waste in China. Based on a rounded percentage of 25%, the total amount of rural food waste in China would be 75,000,000 tons, including 17,500,000 tons of dry-basis waste (dry-basis content: 23%) which could produce 13,562,500 tons of organic fertilizers (17,500,000 x 1.55 = 27,515,000/2). According to the above analysis and estimates, the theoretic potential amount of organic fertilizers from food waste in the annually 500,000,000 tons of urban and rural domestic waste in China would be 34,952,500 tons (21,390,000 + 13,562,500). In case of the most appropriate ratio of organic and inorganic nutrients for organic-inorganic compound fertilizers (1:1), the potential amount of organic-inorganic compound fertilizers from food waste in China approximates at 69,905,000 tons. Granulated organic-inorganic compound fertilizers are efficient, high-quality slow-release fertilizers. Slow/controlled release fertilizers usually cost 3-9 times more than ordinary fertilizers outside China, and 2-8 times more than ordinary chemical fertilizers, known as “unaffordable fertilizers”. By June 2012, the price of urea in the domestic market has been stabilized at around RMB 2,300/t. Given the price of urea is RMB 2,000/t, then the potential value of the 69,905,000 tons of granulated organic-inorganic compound fertilizers would be RMB 139.81 billion, RMB 279.62 billion and RMB 419.43 billion at different price ratios of slow/controlled release fertilizers and ordinary fertilizers (1:1, 2:1 and 3:1).3.2. Waste plastics Low-value waste plastics are usually sent to landfills or burned rather than being recycled, leading to serious environmental pollution and resource waste. According to Table 1, waste plastics accounted for 13.11% of domestic waste in the eight urban districts of Beijing, so the total amount of plastics in urban domestic waste in China would be 20,000,000 tons (the percentage is assumed at 10% for convenience).According to Table 3, 6.02% of rural domestic waste is plastics, so the total amount would be 18,060,000 tons. As a result, the annual production of urban and rural waste plastics would be about 38,060,000 tons. Wood-plastic composites are new reversible and recyclable multipurpose materials which are mainly made of wood fibers and plastics (plastic resin: 30-75%; wood fibers: 25-70%). Wood-plastic building templates made of waste plastics (30%) and wood chips (70%) have already been developed in China, which means 126,870,000 tons of wood-plastic boards can be produced from the 38,060,000 tons of waste plastics. Assuming wood-plastic templates cost RMB 5,760/t 20, the potential value would be RMB 741.1 billion. The application of wood-plastic composites is an important national policy of China concerning renewable resources. In 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Outline of Technical Policies for Comprehensive Use of Resources in China, clearly putting forward the decision to “promote the technologies that utilize waste plastics and wood materials for the production of wood-plastic composites and products.” A two-step development strategy for the wood-plastic composite industry has also been unveiled: Step 1 (2011-2015): 5,000,000 tons (basic objective); 8,000,000 tons (development objective); Step 2 (2016-2020): 15,000,000-20,000,000 tons (development objective) 21; an industrial system with an annual output of RMB 300 billion.Table 4: Annual outputs, objectives and potentials of wood-plastic composites in ChinaSource: Outline of the Development Plan for Chinas Wood-Plastic Composite Industry in the 12th Five-year Plan Period3.3. Toilet paper Waste toilet paper is not listed in Table 1 and Table 3 as a physical component of domestic waste. Despite serious pollution, the separate collection and disposal of such waste are seldom mentioned in domestic research documents. As far as resource recycling is concerned, it is a rich cellulosic resource with stable sources. It is practical to produce fuel ethanol from separately-collected waste toilet paper through centralized disposal. In industrially developed countries, there are 170 tons of cellulosic materials in every 250 tons of urban waste, which can produce about 36.5 tons of ethanol 14.6 tons of ethanol out of 100 tons of cellulosic waste. The dry-basis separation test shows that 166.29kg of low-value unmarketable waste includes 8.75kg of toilet paper (5.26%). Without public data, we assume waste toilet paper averagely accounts for 3% of urban and rural domestic waste, so there would be 15,000,000 tons of waste toilet paper in the yearly 500,000,000 tons of domestic waste in China, which could produce 2,190,000 tons of ethanol worth of RMB 13.14 billion (at the minimum price of RMB 6,000/t). US technologies such as Nitick and Penn-GE (complex hydrolysis and fermentation) which is jointly developed by the University of Pennsylvania and General Electric work on urban cellulosic waste to transform all the organisms into liquid fuels and other valuable products, making new breakthroughs in the energy-oriented use of urban cellulosic waste and suggesting biological disposal solutions for urban and rural cellulosic waste (other than burying or burning it).3.4. Waste glassAccording to Tables 1-2, glass accounts for 0.95% of urban domestic waste in China (200,000,000 tons x 0.95% = 1,900,000 tons). In rural domestic waste there is 4,530,000 tons of glass (300,000,000 x 1.51%). Therefore, there is totally 6,430,000 tons of glass in urban and rural domestic waste. Each ton of waste glass can produce 20,000 wine bottles. Conservatively, each bottle costs RMB 0.1, so the market potential of waste glass is RMB 2,000 per ton, that is, RMB 12.86 billion in total. In fact, waste glass may have higher economic value after resource recycling. Concrete with 35% of glass aggregates from the US has proved qualified for the design requirements in its compression strength, shrinkage and water absorbability. Waste glass can also be made into glass-ceramic artificial marble slabs, building tiles, glass mosaics, heat-insulating and soundproof materials, etc. The potential value of the 6,430,000 tons of waste glass may be higher in case of a larger value-added production. 3.5. Used clothes So far used clothes are seldom recycled as resources but directly buried or burned in most cases. Based on relevant data in Tables 1-3, the total amount of used clothes in urban and rural domestic waste in China is 8,110,000 tons, including 3,280,000 tons in urban domestic waste and 4,830,000 tons in rural domestic waste. The prices of used clothes offered on from May 17 to June 17, 2012 ranged from RMB 700/t to RMB 8,800/t. The 8,110,000 tons of used clothes would cost RMB 8.11 billion at a price of RMB 1,000/t. The industrialization of technologies for comprehensive use of used clothing fibers has been included into the Outline of Technical Policies for Comprehensive Use of Resources in China, and national policies have made it clear to industrialize the recycling of used textiles. By turning such domestic waste as glass, textiles, paper and tiles into reinforcing fillers for wood-plastic composites, Ma Jianli et al. have found that short textile fibers have the best mechanical properties for reinforcing, which creates a new way for the recycling of used clothes in domestic waste.3.6. Waste electronics, paper and metals Waste electronics are not listed in Table 1 and Table 3 as physical components of domestic waste. According to Table 2, the percentage of waste electronics in low-value non-marketable waste is 1.24%, so we estimate there are about 6,200,000 tons of waste electronics in the 500,000,000 tons of domestic waste in China. The estimates of the Ministry of Science and Technology show that by 2010, there were 3,000,000 tons of waste electronics in China, and the figure will climb to 5,000,000 tons by 2015. According to relevant estimates of Tianjin Recycling Research Institute of China, the potential price of waste electronics per ton is above RMB 1,000, so the potential value of the 3,000,000 tons of waste electronics in 2010 would at least exceed RMB 3 billion. According to Table 1 and Table 3, paper accounts for 10.68% of urban domestic waste (about 21,360,000 tons) and 2.88% of rural domestic waste (about 8,640,000 tons) in China, so the total weight would be 30,000,000 tons. The potential value would be around RMB 30 billion if the paper costs RMB 1,000/t (a modest price of waste paper in the Pricelist of Renewable Resources in Some Cities and Provinces of China, June 12, 2012. According to Table 1 and Table 3, metals account for 0.68% of urban domestic waste (about 1,340,000 tons) and 0.64% of rural domestic waste (about 1,920,000 tons) in China, so the total weight would be 3,260,000 tons. The potential value would be at least RMB 8.15 billion at a price of RMB 2,500/t for general waste steel according to the Pricelist of Renewable Resources in Some Cities and Provinces of China, June 12, 2012.The recycling potentials of tiles, mucks, bamboo and other components as well as the 200,000,000 tons of water are not estimated in this paper. 4. Conclusions (1) Recycling of urban and rural domestic waste would create potential values of RMB 926.17 billion, RMB 1,065.98 billion and RMB 1,205.81 billion upon three prices of granulated organic-inorganic compound fertilizers. 69,905,000 tons of granulated organic-inorganic compound fertilizers would be produced from food waste, so the potential values from resource recycling would be RMB 139.81 billion, RMB 279.62 billion and RMB 419.43 billion upon the three prices. 126,870,000 tons of wood-plastic slabs would be produced from 38,060,000 tons of waste plastics, so the potential value from resource recycling would be RMB 741.1 billion. 2,190,000 tons of ethanol would be produced from waste toilet paper, so the potential value from resource recycling would be RMB 13.14 billion. The potential values from resource recycling of waste glass (6,430,000 tons), used clothes (8,110,000 tons), waste electronics (3,000,000 tons) and waste metals (3,260,000 tons) would be RMB 12.86 billion, RMB 8.11 billion, more than RMB 3 billion and more than RMB 8.15 billion respectively.Fig.1. Resource recycling potentials of different components of low-value domestic waste (unit: RMB 100 million) (2) Dry-basis separation from the source is the basis for the industrialization of domestic waste resources. Effective source separation is the only way to separate renewable resources in domestic waste into single-component, clean raw materials for pre-homogenization, so as to realize resource recycling, truly eliminate environmental pollution and resource waste caused by mixed burying or burning, and help tackle the crises of resource shortage and the encirclement of domestic waste. (3) Resource recovery of domestic waste is a major strategic emerging industry in China. The waste recovery output in China exceeded RMB 1 trillion in 2010, and is expected to hit RMB 2 trillion by 2015. Resource recycling of domestic waste, with a potential value of about RMB 1 trillion, is an even more crucial energy-saving and environment-friendly strategic emerging industry which will continue to grow in the future. (4) How to break the bottleneck of separation technologies is the key to recovery of domestic waste. The long-existing absence of breakthroughs in separation of domestic waste is one of the reasons for the increasingly serious crisis of domestic waste in China. It is necessary to build a smoothly-connected, comprehensive dry-basis separation technology system for separate collection, transportation and disposal, give priority to the development of key technologies, and continue to develop, test and improve dry-basis low-frequency direct transport technologies.资源回收潜力分析研究基于中国城市和农村生活垃圾的研究摘要中国城市和农村生活垃圾总湿基重量大约是每年5亿吨，其中60来自干基废物（约300,000,000吨）。单组合物，清洁废物分离以干基计算，特别是低价值的食品废物和塑料组件，具有巨大的资源回收再利用的潜力。500,000,000吨的城乡生活废物的资源化利用的潜在附加价值将约为人民币926.17亿元，人民币1,065.98亿元及人民币1,205.81亿元，在三个价格颗粒状的有机 - 无机复合肥料。一个潜在的价值为人民币1,065.98亿元，举例来说，将是中国2011年GDP的2.26（471564亿人民币），这可能使国内废弃物资源循环利用成为大产业之一。家居废物资源回收是一个主要的能源节约型和环境友好的战略性新兴产业，在中国应优先建立最大的资源回收和资源回收家居废物管理策略。关键词：家居废物，资源回收，潜力分析1、 问题中国城市和农村生活垃圾资源回收利用潜力评价，一个精心绘制技术路线图，是国内的浪费和行之有效的管理政策的重要依据。根据国内废物包括城市生活垃圾干基分离试验，高附加值适销对路的浪费和低价值的滞销废物，其中第一类的纸，笨重的家具和其他可能会被收集并通过各种销售渠道进行销售的，而第二类因为他们的“无用”被送去垃圾填埋场或烧毁。根据世界银行的统计，中国的二手材料将有一个广阔的市场，而到2030年，城市生活垃圾在中国特别是纸张和金属，将是世界上一个最大的商品来源。国内研究表明，中国每年生产400,000,000吨的生活垃圾，这表明它是浪费使用时间的一种战略资源。根据学术界，废物应被称为一个和唯一增长的资源，是垃圾处理行业计划的重点产业之一。据有关部门统计，“可再生资源”，在中国城市每年被丢弃的，价值人民币25亿元，每年丢弃家居废物“资源”价值约人民币125亿元。在中国，每年都会有数额巨大的国内废物深埋或烧毁分离前，其资源回收潜力需要进一步研究。在本文中，资源回收利用潜力增值干基原料的加工和生产从中国城市和农村生活垃圾的材料估计，是在干基分离试验和国内相关研究和分析的基础上。2、 中国城市和农村生活垃圾的总重量和总干基重量总的湿基重量和总干基重量的基础数据的准确性，是分析家庭废物资源回收再利用潜力的必要性。然而，我们知道目前城市生活垃圾是已经收集和运输的数量，而不是被生产农村生活垃圾的数量。因此，我们估计生产废弃物收集和运输的重量，并根据数据计算农村生活垃圾生产的相关数据。2.1、城市生活垃圾年生产量根据工信部的数据，城市生活垃圾在中国的654个城市被收集和运输，2010年达1.57亿吨。根据张丽景保守估计，生产被认为是高于257或30以上8。因此，实际生产中，在654个城市的城市生活垃圾可能被估计在19625万吨和20410万吨之间。2.2、农村生活垃圾年生产量据在全国范围内共同举办的全国爱国卫生运动委员会和卫生部从2006年8月至2007年11月在农村的饮用水和环境卫生的调查，家居废物的一个重要组成部分农户废物，农村生活垃圾的生产是每人每天0.86千克，每年有近3亿吨，产生的生活垃圾在中国农村地区的9，其中1/3（约100,000,000吨）随意倾倒，严重污染环境。2.3、总干基重量城乡生活废物在北京的城市生活垃圾的平均含水率是50.1910。估计为50的含水量，200,000,000吨城市生活垃圾在中国生产约100,000,000吨的水，这意味着干基总重量为100,000,000吨。依据北京农村生活垃圾的含水量为35.79计算，300,000,000吨的中国农村生活垃圾产生10737万吨水，约200,000,000吨干基废物的总和。在这样的情况下，每年在中国国内城市和农村的废物量是约5亿吨，其中包括超过200,000,000吨的水，约300,000,000吨干基废物。2.4、参考物理组件对城乡生活废物的资源回收潜力进行评估城市生活垃圾资源回收利用潜力评价参考组件见表1和表2，农村生活垃圾基于谢东明的结果。表1 在2007年北京城八区的家居废物物理组件（湿基，）食物垃圾 塑料 纸 尘 竹 纺织 玻璃 砖 金属 其他66.22 12.30 10.68 4.83 2.27 1.64 0.95 0.68 0.26 0.17表2 低价值的城市生活垃圾的物理组件食物垃圾 变废塑料 卫生纸 玻璃 二手衣服 家政服务垃圾 电子废物70.34 12.34 7.22 3.60 3.20 1.64 1.24表3 中国农村生活垃圾的物理组件（以湿基计，）渣土 食品废物 其他 塑料 纸 纺织品 金属 玻璃55.76 24.54 7.05 6.02 2.88 1.61 1.51 0.643、城市和农村的生活垃圾资源回收潜力的估计根据表1-3中的参考组件，国内主要的废物资源回收潜力估计如下。3.1、食物垃圾城市食物垃圾。城市家庭食物垃圾中生活垃圾占相当大的一部分（如表1所示，食物垃圾占生活垃圾的66.22，在2007年北京城八区）。为方便起见，我们假设平均有60的食物浪费成为城市生活垃圾，所以城市生活垃圾1.2亿吨中会有餐厨垃圾200,000,000吨。据李振山等人的观点，食品废弃物干重占20-25，所以每年中国城市餐厨垃圾的干基总重量将为2760万吨，平均干重占23时。最合适的堆肥含水量为50-6016，所产生的有机肥料，重量比总重量轻50，所以在中国城市生活垃圾有机肥的潜在数量有55的水含量的情况下将是2139万吨的（27600000*1.55=42780000/2）。根据表3，食品废物占中国的农村生活垃圾总量的24.54。基于一个圆形的百分比为25，中国农村食品废物的总量是7500万吨，包括1750万吨的干基础废弃物（干基含量：23）可产生有机肥料（17,500,000*1.55=27515000/2）。根据上面的分析和估计，中国城市和农村生活垃圾每年500,000,000吨餐厨垃圾有机肥理论潜在金额将是34952500吨（21,390,000+13562500）。在最合适的有机和无机养分的有机 - 无机复合肥料（1:1）比例的情况下，潜在的量的有机 - 无机复合肥在中国的食品废弃物中接近69905000吨。颗粒状的有机 - 无机复合肥是高效、高品质的缓释肥料。在国外缓/控释肥料的成本通常比普通肥料高3-9倍以上18，比普通化肥多2-8倍，被称为“买不起的化肥”。2012年6月，在国内市场尿素价格稳定在2,300元左右/吨。鉴于尿素价格2,000元人民币/吨，颗粒状的有机 - 无机复合肥69905000吨的潜在价值将在不同的价格比率（ 1:1，2:1和3:1）为人民币139.81亿元，人民币279.62亿元和人民币419.43亿元的缓/控释肥料与普通肥料。3.2、废塑料低价值的废塑料通常被送往填埋场或焚烧，而不是被回收，导致了严重的环境污染和资源浪费。根据表1，废塑料在北京城八区的生活垃圾占13.11，以中国城市生活垃圾总量的塑料2000万吨作为基期（假定为方便起见，在10）的百分比。根据表3，6.02，农村生活垃圾是塑料，所以总量是1806万吨。因此，城市和农村的废塑料的年产量约3806万吨。木塑复合材料是新的可逆和可回收的多用途材料，主要由木纤维和塑料（塑料树脂30-75;木纤维：25-70）。木塑建筑模板的废旧塑料（30）和木屑（70）已经在中国开发，这意味着3806万吨废塑料，木塑板，可以生产12687万吨。假设木塑模板成本人民币5,760元/吨，其潜在价值将人民币741.1百万吨1亿元。中国的有关政策表明，木塑复合材料的应用是国家重要的可再生资源。 2010年，国家发展和改革委员会，科学技术部，工业和信息化部，工信部，国土资源部，住房和城乡发展部和商务部联合颁布“纲要”中国资源综合利用技术政策，明确提出“推广的技术，利用废旧塑料和木质材料用于生产木塑复合材料和产品的决定。”两步走的发展战略，木塑复合材料业界也已亮相：第1步（2011-2015年）：500万吨（基本目标）;8,000,000吨（发展目标）;第2步（2016-2020年）：15,000,000-20,000,000吨（发展目标）21;年产人民币300亿元的工业体系。表4：中国木塑复合材料的年产量的目标和潜力年份 输出 （10,000 吨）2001 12002 22003 32004 42005 52006 82007 152008 202009 3
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