美国度假村运营情况概览 (NXPowerLite)

1、resort conference march 21st, 2006 jan d. freitag, vp smith travel research agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projections total united states estimated revenue and profitability years 1999 2005p life is good ! u.s. lodging industry - key statistics l

2、atest 12 months - january 2006 % change hotels 47,735 0.6% rooms4.4mm 0.3% occupancy63.3% 2.9% a.d.r. $91.28 5.5% revpar$57.76 8.6% room revenue$94b 9.0% total united states room supply/demand percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 cyclicality clearly visible recent s/d imba

3、lance spells opportunity 0.3% 3.3% total united states occupancy/adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 divergence divergence? if history repeats itself, strong adr gains are here to stay total united states occupancy percent, average daily rate, revpar twelve month movi

4、ng average 1989 to january 2006 $86.36 $91.28 64.9% 63.3% robust occ and adr gains post 9/11 str chain scales selected chains from each segment luxury four seasons, ritz carlton, fairmont, w hotels upper upscale doubletree, hilton, hyatt, sheraton upscale hilton garden inn, courtyard, crowne plaza,

5、radisson mid with f&b holiday inn, ramada, best western, quality inn mid no f&b comfort inn, hi express, country inns & suites economy motel 6, days inn, esa, travelodge, ramada limited chain scales supply/demand percent change twelve months ended january 2006 business traveler drives demand for big

6、 boxes chain scales occupancy/adr percent change twelve months ended january 2006 above inflation rate growth across all chain scales chain scales revpar/room revenue percent change twelve months ended january 2006 life is good! agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hot

7、els total us projections resort locations key statistics 12 month moving average january 2006 % change hotels3,890-2.5% room nights214.6 m-1.8% demand 143.3 m-0.8% occupancy66.7% 1.1% adr$127.06 6.0% revpar $85.11 7.1% room rev$18.3 b 5.2% resort locations room supply/demand percent change twelve mo

8、nth moving average 1989 to january 2006 supply increase used to be somewhat constant until 9/11 -0.8% -1.8% resort locations room demand percent change peaks twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 demand peaks every 48 months or does it? 48 months48 months 42 months resort locations occupa

9、ncy/adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 despite decreasing occ growth, adr growth should be here to stay resort locations occupancy percent, average daily rate twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 july 1997: 69.1% occ & adr rebound after 9/11 but occ still

10、 has a way to go july 2001: $115 jan 2006: $127 jan 2006: 66.7% resorts day of week analysis occupancy 2003 - 2005 nice increases midweek - but have weekends peaked? resorts day of week analysis adr 2003 - 2005 $8 rate growth across the board a good sign for 2006 resorts group vs. transient adr 2003

11、 - 2005 group rate growth lags transient rate growth resorts day of week adr - group 2003 - 2005 2005 vs 2004: moderate daily rate growth (3%) for groups resorts day of week adr transient 2003 - 2005 2005 vs 2004: healthy rate increases across all days (10%) agenda total us overview resort locations

12、 destination resorts condo hotels total us projections destination resort key statistics 12 month moving average january 2006 % change hotels3171.0 % room nights57.7m- 0.5 % demand 38.8 m1.2 % occupancy67.3%1.7 % adr$182.986.3 % revpar $123.148.1 % room rev $7.1 b7.6 % 0.7% of us hotel supply genera

13、tes 7.6 % of us rooms revenue destination resorts room supply/demand percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 segment always attracts new supply except in the most recent past 1.2% -0.5% destination resorts occupancy/adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to janua

14、ry 2006 above 6% rate growth lasts not forever but for now destination resorts occupancy percent, average daily rate twelve month moving average 1989 to january 2006 still room for improvement post 9/11 in both measures may 1997: 70.6% july 2001: $171 jan 2006: $182 jan 2006: 67.3% destination resor

15、ts monthly occupancy 2000 vs. 2005 in the off season, year 2000 still is the benchmark to beat 76.8% 75.8% destination resorts monthly adr 2000 vs. 2005 december rate differential still $6 -$6 +$14 destination resorts day of week analysis occupancy 2003 - 2005 strong “long weekends” (thu sat) but ha

16、ve fr/sat reached their peak? destination resorts day of week analysis adr 2003 - 2005 second part of the cycle: rate increase 04/03: 2% - rate increase 05/04: 6% agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projections definitions condo hotel rooms: rooms plac

17、ed in rental pool residences: rooms not placed in rental pool total u.s. summary of condotel pipeline march 2006 source: str condotel pipeline, part of the str / twr / dodge construction pipeline 229 projects with a total of 98,142 reported* rooms rooms are broken out as follows ( % of total): hotel

18、 rooms: 34,166 35% condo hotel rooms:48,678 50% total affecting nightly room supply: 82,844 85% non-rental residences:13,938 14% timeshare rooms: 1,360 1% * some projects have not yet reported room counts total u.s. top 10 condotel msas march 2006 annual occupancy 2003 - 2005 total us vs. condo hote

19、ls vs. destination resorts % annual adr 2003 - 2005 total us vs. condo hotels vs. destination resorts $ condotel: data reporting topics reporting availability static vs. fluctuating rooms available reporting rooms sold issue: owner occupied, non-revenue generating rooms reporting rooms revenue the r

20、ule: no restatements after 120 days comp set issues choosing a condotel in your comp set will likely do more harm than good agenda total us overview resort locations destination resorts condo hotels total us projections lodging industry issues supply growth remains benign construction costs, condo c

21、onversions higher operating costs insurance, labor, amenities, energy solid demand growth degrees of good, some not so good changing demand experience travel, baby boomers occupancy growth slows varies widely by market aggressive pricing could double cpi, control of internet pricing transportation problems troubled airlines, gasoline, infrastructure higher industry profits more difficult for each property global issues terrorism, bird flu, currency fluctuations outlook great till