机场规划设计模拟答辩图文学习教案

1、会计学1机场规划设计模拟答辩机场规划设计模拟答辩(dbin)图文图文第一页，共44页。际机场，是中国华东地区重要的航空国际口岸之一，中国东南沿海最繁忙机场之一，也是重要的航空客货集散地。飞行区等级为4E级，停机坪面积32万平方米。福州机场目前已被国家民航局确定为“海上丝绸之路”门户枢纽机场，这意味着福州机场从一般枢纽机场上升为国家级门户枢纽机场，使之成为机场设施互联互通和打造(dzo)空中交通走廊的核心节点。第1页/共43页第二页，共44页。第2页/共43页第三页，共44页。年客运年客运/ /万万 年货运年货运/ /吨吨 年份年份1985198523.3223.3242574257198619

2、8635.7235.72436943691987198751.4651.46468246821989198959.4359.43457845781990199043.0743.07376837681991199139.939.95516551619921992104.41104.416607660719931993133133130381303819941994147.4147.4272872728719951995169.75169.75347593475919961996198.37198.37374563745619971997221.3221.340600406001998199821

3、1.58211.58412004120019991999204.47204.47453264532620002000215.31215.31507895078920012001229.39229.39498534985320022002244.56244.56482424824220032003254.37254.37487514875120042004312.88312.88491284912820052005345.48345.48500755007520062006379.41379.41542745427420072007424.72424.7256512565122008200845

4、3.89453.89601526015220092009545.22545.22644326443220102010648.31648.31794277942720112011720.46720.46876438764320122012785.27785.27969149691420132013892.59892.5911032011032020142014936.32936.32122000122000第3页/共43页第四页，共44页。第4页/共43页第五页，共44页。y = 1.3577x2 - 11.984x + 90.672第5页/共43页第六页，共44页。年客运年客运/ /万万 X

5、X年份年份-14-141985198523.3223.32196196-326.48-326.48543.8224543.8224-13-131986198635.7235.72169169-464.36-464.361275.91841275.9184-12-121987198751.4651.46144144-617.52-617.522648.13162648.1316-11-111989198959.4359.43121121-653.73-653.733531.92493531.9249-10-101990199043.0743.07100100-430.7-430.71855.02

6、491855.0249-9-91991199139.939.98181-359.1-359.11592.011592.01-8-819921992104.41104.416464-835.28-835.2810901.448110901.4481-7-7199319931331334949-931-9311768917689-6-619941994147.4147.43636-884.4-884.421726.7621726.76-5-519951995169.75169.752525-848.75-848.7528815.062528815.0625-4-419961996198.37198

7、.371616-793.48-793.4839350.656939350.6569-3-319971997221.3221.39 9-663.9-663.948973.6948973.69-2-219981998211.58211.584 4-423.16-423.1644766.096444766.0964-1-119991999204.47204.471 1-204.47-204.4741807.980941807.98090 020002000215.31215.310 00 046358.396146358.39611 120012001229.39229.39 1 1229.3922

8、9.3952619.772152619.77212 220022002244.56244.56 4 4489.12489.1259809.593659809.59363 320032003254.37254.37 9 9763.11763.1164704.096964704.09694 420042004312.88312.88 16161251.521251.5297893.894497893.89445 520052005345.48345.48 25251727.41727.4119356.4304119356.43046 620062006379.41379.41 36362276.4

9、62276.46143951.9481143951.94817 720072007424.72424.72 49492973.042973.04180387.0784180387.07848 820082008453.89453.89 64643631.123631.12206016.1321206016.13219 920092009545.22545.22 81814906.984906.98297264.8484297264.8484101020102010648.31648.31 1001006483.16483.1420305.8561420305.85611111201120117

10、20.46720.46 1211217925.067925.06519062.6116519062.6116121220122012785.27785.27 1441449423.249423.24616648.9729616648.9729131320132013892.59892.59 16916911603.6711603.67796716.9081796716.9081141420142014936.32936.32 19619613108.4813108.48876695.1424876695.14240 09031.39031.36 62030203058355.3658355.3

11、64763269.2094763269.209Y2xxy第6页/共43页第七页，共44页。 311.4262069311.426206928.7464827628.746482760.9273446330.9273446331a6x28.74648279311.426206y年份年份预测量预测量20202020886.3558621886.3558621202520251030.0882761030.088276203020301173.820691173.82069205020501748.7503451748.750345222)(axxnxyxyx22bxxnyxxyn)()(n2222

12、yynxxnyxxy第7页/共43页第八页，共44页。年货运年货运/ /吨吨 X X年份年份-14-141985198542574257196196-59598-595981812204918122049-13-131986198643694369169169-56797-567971908816119088161-12-121987198746824682144144-56184-561842192112421921124-11-111989198945784578121121-50358-503582095808420958084-10-101990199037683768100100-3

13、7680-376801419782414197824-9-919911991551655168181-49644-496443042625630426256-8-819921992660766076464-52856-528564365244943652449-7-71993199313038130384949-91266-91266169989444169989444-6-61994199427287272873636-163722-163722744580369744580369-5-51995199534759347592525-173795-1737951208188081120818

14、8081-4-41996199637456374561616-149824-14982414029519361402951936-3-31997199740600406009 9-121800-12180016483600001648360000-2-21998199841200412004 4-82400-8240016974400001697440000-1-11999199945326453261 1-45326-45326205444627620544462760 02000200050789507890 00 0257952252125795225211 12001200149853

15、498531 14985349853248532160924853216092 22002200248242482424 49648496484232729056423272905643 32003200348751487519 9146253146253237666000123766600014 42004200449128491281616196512196512241356038424135603845 52005200550075500752525250375250375250750562525075056256 620062006542745427436363256443256442

16、94566707629456670767 72007200756512565124949395584395584319360614431936061448 82008200860152601526464481216481216361826310436182631049 920092009644326443281815798885798884151482624415148262410102010201079427794271001007942707942706308648329630864832911112011201187643876431211219640739640737681295449

17、76812954491212201220129691496914144144116296811629689392323396939232339613132013201311032011032016916914341601434160121705024012170502400 014142014201412200012200019619617080001708000148840000014884000000 00 0总和总和130195513019552030203073940307394030881299712788129971279 9Y2xxy 2Y第8页/共43页第九页，共44页。222

18、)(axxnxyxyx22bxxnyxxyn)()(n2222yynxxnyxxy 44895448953642.379313642.379310.9526003590.9526003592b2ax3642.3793144895y年份年份预测量预测量20202020117742.5862117742.586220252025135954.4828135954.482820302030154166.3793154166.379320502050227013.9655227013.9655第9页/共43页第十页，共44页。年份年份x xy=y=年旅年旅客吞吐量客吞吐量（万）（万）yyxyxyx2x

19、2y2y219851985-14-1423.3223.321.367728541.367728546 6-19.14819965-19.148199651961961.8706813761.87068137619861986-13-1335.7235.721.552911451.55291145-20.18784885-20.187848851691692.4115339722.41153397219871987-12-1251.4651.461.711469781.711469782 2-20.53763738-20.537637381441442.9291288142.9291288141

20、9891989-11-1159.4359.431.774005731.77400573-19.51406303-19.514063031211213.1470963313.14709633119901990-10-1043.0743.071.634174871.634174872 2-16.34174872-16.341748721001002.6705275122.67052751219911991-9-939.939.91.600972891.600972896 6-14.40875606-14.4087560681812.5631142132.56311421319921992-8-81

21、04.41104.412.018742092.018742096 6-16.14993677-16.1499367764644.0753196494.07531964919931993-7-71331332.123851642.123851641 1-14.86696149-14.8669614949494.5107457934.51074579319941994-6-6147.4147.42.168497482.168497484 4-13.0109849-13.010984936364.7023813364.70238133619951995-5-5169.75169.752.229809

22、782.229809783 3-11.14904891-11.1490489125254.9720516684.97205166819961996-4-4198.37198.372.297475992.297475993 3-9.189903973-9.18990397316165.278395945.2783959419971997-3-3221.3221.32.344981412.344981414 4-7.034944242-7.0349442429 95.4989378325.49893783219981998-2-2211.58211.582.325474612.325474613

23、3-4.650949226-4.6509492264 45.4078321755.40783217519991999-1-1204.47204.472.310629592.310629597 7-2.310629597-2.3106295971 15.3390091345.339009134200020000 0215.31215.312.333064202.333064201 10 00 05.4431885665.443188566222)(axxnxyxyx22bxxnyxxyn) ()(n2222yynxxnyxxyaa2.3127323592.312732359bb0.0505084

24、030.0505084030.9671897570.967189757取吞吐量的对数(du sh)记做y第10页/共43页第十一页，共44页。200120011 1229.39229.39 2.36057442.360574481812.360574482.360574481 11 15.5723118825.572311882200220022 2244.56244.56 2.38838542.388385426264.776770854.776770851 14 45.7043849425.704384942200320033 3254.37254.37 2.40546582.405465

25、89 97.216397677.216397679 95.7862661485.786266148200420044 4312.88312.88 2.49537782.495377803039.981511219.981511212 216166.2269103796.226910379200520055 5345.48345.48 2.53842292.5384229111112.692114512.69211455 525256.4435908756.443590875200620066 6379.41379.41 2.57910872.5791087737315.474652615.47

26、465264 436366.6518020646.651802064200720077 7424.72424.72 2.62810272.6281027121218.396718918.39671899 949496.9069238676.906923867200820088 8453.89453.89 2.65695062.6569506151521.255604921.25560492 264647.0593865687.059386568200920099 9545.22545.22 2.73657172.7365717787824.629146024.62914601 181817.4

27、888250997.488825099201020101010648.31648.31 2.81178272.8117827212128.117827228.11782721 11001007.9061220677.906122067201120111111720.46720.46 2.85760982.8576098747431.433708631.43370861 11211218.1659341918.165934191201220121212785.27785.27 2.89501902.8950190060634.740228034.74022807 71441448.3811350

28、468.381135046201320131313892.59892.59 2.95065202.9506520171738.358476238.35847622 21691698.7063473258.706347325201420141414936.32936.32 2.97142432.9714243 41.599940241.59994021961968.8293623718.829362371总和总和0 09031.39031.36 667.06923867.0692384 4102.532058102.5320588 820302030160.6492471160.64924713

29、x0.0505084092.31273235ylgylgy客运量客运量y y202020203.3229004263.3229004262103.2961462103.296146202520253.5754424433.5754424433762.2048843762.204884203020303.827984463.827984466729.5257586729.525758205020504.8381525274.83815252768889.419868889.4198增长率=0.123332705350845第11页/共43页第十二页，共44页。年货运年货运/ /吨吨 X X年份年

30、份y ylgylgyx.lgyx.lgy(lgy)2(lgy)2-14-1419851985425742573.629103653.62910365-50.8074511-50.807451113.170393313.1703933-13-1319861986436943693.6403820453.640382045-47.32496658-47.3249665813.2523814313.25238143-12-1219871987468246823.6704314093.670431409-44.04517691-44.0451769113.4720667313.47206673-11-

31、1119891989457845783.6606757883.660675788-40.26743367-40.2674336713.4005472313.40054723-10-1019901990376837683.5761108943.576110894-35.76110894-35.7611089412.7885691312.78856913-9-919911991551655163.7416242583.741624258-33.67461832-33.6746183213.9997520813.99975208-8-819921992660766073.8200043073.820

32、004307-30.56003445-30.5600344514.592432914.5924329-7-71993199313038130384.1152109774.115210977-28.80647684-28.8064768416.9349613816.93496138-6-61994199427287272874.4359557914.435955791-26.61573475-26.6157347519.6777037819.67770378-5-51995199534759347594.5410672744.541067274-22.70533637-22.7053363720

33、.6212919820.62129198-4-41996199637456374564.5735213964.573521396-18.29408559-18.2940855920.9170979620.91709796-3-31997199740600406004.6085260344.608526034-13.8255781-13.825578121.238512221.2385122-2-21998199841200412004.6148972164.614897216-9.229794432-9.22979443221.2972763121.29727631-1-11999199945

34、326453264.6563473944.656347394-4.656347394-4.65634739421.6815710621.681571060 02000200050789507894.7057696624.7057696620 022.1442681122(axxnxyxyx22bxxnyxxyn) ()(n2222yynxxnyxxy取吞吐量的对数(du sh)记做y4.4649258094.4649258090.0526975240.0526975240.9170049530.9170049532a2b第12页/共43页第十三页，共44页。1 120

35、01200149853498534.6976914.6976912982984.6976912984.697691298 22.0683035322.068303532 22002200248242482424.6834254.6834253043049.3668506099.366850609 21.9344725821.934472583 32003200348751487514.6879834.68798352952914.0639505914.06395059 21.9771895621.977189564 42004200449128491284.6913294.6913290840

36、8418.7653163418.76531634 22.0085685822.008568585 52005200550075500754.6996204.69962095895823.4981047923.49810479 22.0864371522.086437156 62006200654274542744.7345914.734591838328.4075509828.40755098 22.416359822.41635987 72007200756512565124.7521404.75214067867833.2649847433.26498474 22.5828410222.5

37、82841028 82008200860152601524.7792504.77925007207238.2340005738.23400057 22.8412312522.841231259 92009200964432644324.8091014.80910161261243.2819145143.28191451 23.1274583223.1274583210102010201079427794274.8999684.89996815915948.9996815948.99968159 24.0096879624.0096879611112011201187643876434.9427

38、174.94271723523554.3698895854.36988958 24.4304536624.4304536612122012201296914969144.9863864.98638651951959.8366382359.83663823 24.8640505224.864050521313201320131103201103205.0426545.04265425325365.5545052965.55450529 25.4283619225.428361921414201420141220001220005.0863595.08635983183171.2090376371

39、.20903763 25.8710563325.871056330 013019551301955129.4828129.4828485485106.9759733106.9759733 584.8352978584.83529784x0.0526975294.46492580ylgylgy货运量货运量yy202020205.5188762855.518876285330275.4438330275.4438202520255.7823639045.782363904605848.3142605848.3142203020306.0458515236.0458515231111351.7121

40、111351.712205020507.0998019997.09980199912583515.812583515.8增长率=0.129009311543061第13页/共43页第十四页，共44页。年份客运量/人货运量/吨年份客运量/人货运量/吨1992104.4166072003254.37487511993133130382004312.88491281994147.4272872005345.48500751995169.75347592006379.41542741996198.37374562007424.72565121997221.3406002008453.896015219

41、98211.58412002009545.22644321999204.47453262010648.31794272000215.31507892011720.46876432001229.39498532012785.27969142002244.56482422013892.59110320预测出预测出客运量2020年1516.683636人2025年2106.72人2050年6507.810909人货运量2020年197619.8347吨2025年274500吨2050年847950.4132吨2)199220141992(32.936:xy客运2)221992(122000yx货运：

42、第14页/共43页第十五页，共44页。第15页/共43页第十六页，共44页。3、预测客运量按照十二五计划GDP增长率为9%，计算(j sun)得2020年GDP为81.66425243亿元预测十三五计划GDP增长率为8%，计算(j sun)得2020年GDP为117.239595亿元2020年的吞吐量为y=69.27882212+17.5009166381.66425243=1498.47809万人2025年的吞吐量为y=69.27882212+17.50091663117.239595=2121.079212万人 222)(axxnxyxyx 22)(bxxnyxxyn20.99377751

43、第16页/共43页第十七页，共44页。第17页/共43页第十八页，共44页。计算得计算得 a=-4.054363258 a=-4.054363258b=0.257861074b=0.257861074log-1a=8.82342E-05log-1a=8.82342E-05log-1b=1.810760757log-1b=1.810760757可发现可发现a a、b b值不可用，舍弃值不可用，舍弃(sh q)(sh q)该方法该方法 222)(axxnxyxyx 22)(bxxnyxxynbaxy人万5812194.7105*117.23959y31.06356831第18页/共43页第十九页，

44、共44页。第19页/共43页第二十页，共44页。 计算(j sun)得 a=9648.634639b=1298.570782 y=9648.634639+1298.570782x3、预测客运量 按照十二五计划GDP增长率为8%，计算(j sun)得2020年GDP为81.66425243亿元 预测十三五计划GDP增长率为7.5%，计算(j sun)得2020年GDP为117.239595亿元 2020年的货运吞吐量为 y=9648.634639+1298.57078281.66425243=1498.47809万吨2025年的货运吞吐量为 y=9648.634639+1298.57078211

45、7.239595=2121.079212万吨 222)(axxnxyxyx 22)(bxxnyxxyn第20页/共43页第二十一页，共44页。byax（）log第21页/共43页第二十二页，共44页。 222)(axxnxyxyx 22)(bxxnyxxyn计算得计算得 a=3.876083518 a=3.876083518b=0.02676539b=0.02676539log-1a=7517.674509log-1a=7517.674509log-1b=1.063568313log-1b=1.063568313 代入代入3 3、预测、预测(yc)(yc)客运量客运量 按照十二五计划按照十二五

46、计划GDPGDP增长率为增长率为8%8%，计算得，计算得20202020年年GDPGDP为为81.6642524381.66425243亿元亿元 预测预测(yc)(yc)十三五计划十三五计划GDPGDP增长率为增长率为7.5%7.5%，计算得，计算得20202020年年GDPGDP为为117.239595117.239595亿元亿元 20202020年的吞吐量为年的吞吐量为 20252025年的吞吐量为年的吞吐量为baxy吨万5812194.710117.239595*7517.6745y31.06356831万人5812194.710= =y吨万9881369.119=117.239595*

47、97517.67450=y31.06356831第22页/共43页第二十三页，共44页。 根据观察分析，发现每产生4亿元人民币的GDP就会有10000人的客运量和100吨的货运量。2011-2015年，国家“十二五”计划中，国民生产总值增长(zngzhng)速率为9%，2016-2020年，国家“十三五”计划中，国民生产总值增长(zngzhng)率按8%计算。2021-2025年在国家“十四五”计划中，虽然没有发布计划，但是按照我国的发展趋势，预计增长(zngzhng)率在7.5%左右。但是2050年的国民生产总值变数较大，难以估计，所以暂时没有计算2050年的航空业务量。亿元）（38.563409. 0116.51692015GDP亿元）75.827808. 01 (16.516952020GDP亿元）（23.11885075. 0175.827852025GDP万吨万人万吨万人年货运量年客