使用枢轴点指标做更好的交易

1、Using Pivot Points to make Better Trades使用樞軸點指標做更好的交易作者 : Jesse Richards Nationality: AmericanWebsite: 使用樞軸點指標做更好的交易Pivot Points have been used by floor traders at the major equities and futures exchanges for a long time. Traders found that the price tended to hover near the pivot level and trade in

2、 between the pivot and support and resistance levels generated by a simple calculation based on the previous days high low and close. One advantage of using Pivots is they are a predictive indicator as opposed to lagging. 樞軸點指標已經被地板交易者用於股票與期貨交易已有一段長時間。交易者發現價格趨向於俳徊在接近樞軸水平並且使用由前一天的最高價/最低價/收盤價所簡單計算出來的支

3、撐/壓力/樞軸之間交易。樞軸點指標的好處是它是預測性指標並非是落後性指標。Predictive Vs Lagging Indicators預測vs落後性指標The majority of technical indicators most traders use such as moving averages and RSI are lagging. Meaning they are telling us what has already happened, or at best, what is happening in real time. Few indicators are predi

4、ctive; one type of predictive indicator is Pivot Point study. Pivot Points use old data to predict future price movement, and, since technical analysis is based on the idea that many people looking at the same thing will draw similar conclusions, we can use pivot points in a variety of ways to impro

5、ve our trading. Traders found that by using the pivot point and the previous days range, high and low, they could set support and resistance levels that price respected. There are several methods of calculation for these pivots and we will explore the classic calculation method in this article in de

6、tail but will also discuss the alternative methods.大多數交易者所使用的技術指標如移動平均線和RSI是落後性的。意即它們只告訴我們已經發生的事或頂多正在發生的事。很少有技術指標是預測性的；樞軸點指標是一種預測性指標。樞軸點用舊資料預測未來價格變動並且由於技術分析是大多數人都看到一樣的東西得到類似的結論，因此我們可使用樞軸點指標以很多不同的方式來改善我們的交易。交易者發現使用樞軸點及前一天全距/最高價/最低價可以算出對應價格的支撐及壓力。計算這些樞軸點有幾種方式，本文將會深入探討傳統計算方式但也會討論其他方式。Classic Pivot Poin

7、ts傳統樞軸點To calculate the pivot point, take the previous day or sessions high(H), low(L) and close(C), add them together and divide by 3 (H+L+C/3 = Pivot Point (PP) Now we can calculate the support and resistance levels based off the pivot,計算樞軸點要取前一天或前一期間的最高價(H), 最低價(L)及收盤價(C)，相加一起除以3 (H+L+C/3 = 樞軸點 (

8、PP) 現在我們可以以樞軸點為基礎計算支撐與壓力。S1 = (PP x 2)-H R1 = (PP x 2) L S2 = (PP-Range) S3 = (PP-Range) x 2 S4 = (PP-Range) x 3 R2 = (PP+Range) R3 = (PP+Range x 2) R4 = (PP+Range x 3)Range = High-Low. E-mini S&P500 Chart:For this example we will use the E-mini S&P 500 futures. 這個例子我們用E-mini S&P 500 期貨.

9、The previous session high = 1124.25,The low = 1110.25Close was 1122.25 前一期間的最高價 = 1124.5， 最低價 = 1110.25 ，收盤價 = 1122.25Using these values we can calculate the pivot point, 我們可以使用這些數據計算樞軸點PP(樞軸點) = 1118.92 S1(支撐1)= 1113.57 R1(壓力1) =1127.58 S2 (支撐2)= 1104.94 S3 (支撐3)= 1090.92S4 (支撐4)= 1076.17 R2 (壓力2)=

10、 1132.92 R3 (壓力3)= 1146.92 R4 (壓力4)= 1160.92. Looking at this chart, we see that when price fell, it fell exactly to the first level of support and bounced higher. We used the exchange hours to set our session and ignored the Globex/overnight session when calculcating our pivot points. The reason we

11、 did this is because much more volume is traded during the exchange session and the institutions that really move the price are trading during these hours. Most institutions do not trade the low liquidity overnight session unless there is a news event. So when the market opened the next day it immed

12、iately fell and found support exactly at S1. The difference between R1 and S1 was about 14 points, which is a pretty large range for this contract. In other words, it would take a major event to push the price to the next level of support or resistance (S2, R2). By using S1 as the buy entry and our

13、pivot point as a take profit level we can use S2 as the Stop Loss level, the difference between S1 and the PP was 5.34 (5.25 rounded down, which is 21 ticks on this contract), so that was our profit potential on this setup. Conversely, we could have set a buy stop slightly higher than R1 and a sell

14、stop right below S1, this would be more of a breakout strategy where we look for the price to move through either level with momentum and continue down to S2 or move higher to R2看上表我們看到當價格跌時，它跌到剛好第一個支撐後就反彈上去。我們使用交換期間來設定我們的期間並且計算樞軸點時我們忽略國際交換時間及深夜的期間。這樣做的理由是因為交換期間有多更多的交易量並且交易機構真正推動價格及交易是在這段期間。多數機構不在低流

15、動的深夜期間交易，除非有新聞事件。所以當隔日市場開始時，價格馬上就下跌並準確地在到支撐1得到支撐。支撐1與壓力1的差距是14點，這對這個合約來說是相當大的範圍。換句話說，如要江價格推向第二個支撐與壓力(S2,R2)需要很重大的事件。如以支撐1做買多進場點，以用樞軸點當停利點，我們可以用支撐2當停損點，支撐1與樞軸點的差距是5.34(5.25 rounded down, which is 21 ticks on this contract)，所以這是我們潛在獲利的設定。反過來說，我們可以設一個停止買進點在R1更高一點的價位及設一個停止賣出點在S1更低一點的價位，當我們看到價格由S1/R1的任何一

16、方向下衝向S2或向上衝向R2這時就傾向是個突破的策略。Alternate Calculation Methods其他計算方法There are several methods to calculate pivot points, 2 alternate methods are Woodies and Fibonacci. For Woodies method instead of using the previous sessions closing price, we use the current sessions open price.The formula to calculate t

17、he pivot point is PP = (H+L+(Todays Openx2)/4. 有幾種計算樞軸點的方式，其中的兩種是Woodies與Fibonacci。 Woodies的方式是不採用前一期間的收盤價，而是採用目前期間的開盤價。公式如下樞軸點 = (最高價+最低價+(今日開盤價x 2)/4Our Support and Resistance levels are calculated the same way as the classic method. Another method is Fibonacci, this method uses the Classic calcul

18、ation to find the Pivot Point of (H+L+C)/3 but uses the major fibonacci levels to calculate support and resistance levels. S1 = PP-0.382 x (H-L) S2 = PP-0.618 x (H-L)S3 = PP-1.0 x (H-L) R1 = PP+0.382 x (H-L) R2 = PP+0.618 x (H-L) R3 = PP+1.0 x (H-L)支撐與壓力水位的計算則與傳統方式相同。另一個方式是費波南西，這方式使用傳統計算樞軸點的方式(H+L+C

19、)/3但使用費波南西黃金分割率計算支撐與壓力水位。Here is a table using the same Open, High , Low and Close data to compare the different calculation methods:這裡有個表是使用相同的開高低收價位來比較不同的計算方式Combining Pivots with other tools.將樞軸點與其他工具合併Pivot Points are a valuable tool for any trader, however, no single tool tells the whole story,

20、 we are looking for multiple indicators to align and confirm a move. Meaning, if the price is nearing R1, our RSI is above 90 and we have an important Fibonnacci level at or around the same price, that validates our prediction that we will encounter resistance more than relying on any 1 indicator. I

21、t is important to look at different indicators that tell a different story. For example if you are using a moving average crossover for entry confirmed by a MACD, you are basically looking at the same thing in two different ways, a MACD measures the difference between 2 moving averages so of course

22、the signal will be confirmed! But if we mix the inidcators up by using a momentum indicator such as RSI or Stochastics, now we are looking at 2 different instruments that are giving a similar reading. Combine these indicators with support and resistance tools such as pivots and Fibonnacci, now you have 3 totally different