3交通量分析及预测都安2

1、第三章交通量分析及预测本报告在相关道路机动车起讫点调查（OD调查）的基础上，采用四阶段法”对本项目交通量进行分析预测。3.13.1公路交通调查与分析交通调查是交通需求分析的重要环节， 其目的是为了了解项目所在地区公路交通量的特性和构成，掌握公路交通流量、流向及车辆构成等数据资料，为拟建公路交通量预测提供基础数据，同时也为经济评价和公路设计提供可靠的依据。3.1.13.1.1交通调查的组织1 1.调查方法及内容为了解项目沿线和相邻地区公路机动车的现状流量、流向分布特征，为预测交通量提供基础资料，2013年12月19日（星期四），在相关部门的配合下，项目组开展了机动车OD调查及交通量观测工作。OD

2、调查采用路侧拦车询问调查法，调查内容包括起迄点、货类、货车核定吨位、实载量、客车座位数、实载人数、通过时间（以小时为单位）。除军警等特殊车辆外，通过调查点的其它车辆都在调查范围之内。本次调查共设2个OD调查点，分布在都匀附近的X922和镇宁附近的S102。调查时间均为12小时。在OD调查的同时还进行交通量观测。调查时间为早7:00至晚19:00。OD调查点布置情况见表3-1、图3-1。此外12月20日，项目组分别在G75新寨主线收费站和G60大龙主线收费站补充进行了6个小时的OD调查。报告还分别收集了贵州省赤水至望谟高速公路安顺至紫云段工程可行性研究、贵州省从江至兴义高速公路惠水至兴仁段工程可

3、行性研究和贵州省惠水至安顺高速公路工程可行性研究部分OD调查数据，参见图3-1。两次调查分别与2010年1月和2009年2月进行，考虑到至预测基年（2013年）期间本地区没有大的路网和交通源变动，相关站点OD数据也作为本项目交通量预测的基础。考虑到本项目将分流目前G60、S85承担的部分交通， 报告还收集了贵州省高速公路管理局联网收费管理中心全线车流量OD数据，以全面准确反映本区域的交通流向特征，这也是本项目交通量预测的重要基础。调查按照交通部2004年1月29日发布的公路工程技术标准，将机动车划分为七种车型。车型划分情况见表3-2和图3-1。表3-1OD调查点布置一览表编 R名称所处道路所属

4、区域OD调查时间交通量观测时间调查时间1两所屯S102西秀7时19时7时19时2012.8.12宁谷东X007西秀7时19时7时19时2012.8.13惠水西S309惠水7时19时7时19时2009.2.244宁谷南S209西秀7时19时7时19时2010.1.285惠水东S309惠水7时19时7时19时2012.8.16都匀西X922都匀7时19时7时19时2013.12.197镇宁东G320镇宁7时19时7时19时2013.12.19福泉市n*Sn*S三都上弟瓜乌当区老国帮都句市图3-1OD3-1OD调查点布置示意图表3-2车型划分表序号车型车型定义折算系数1小货CW2吨1.02中货2吨

5、VCW7吨1.53大货7吨 V019座1.5注：C为额定载质量，P为额定载客量。为了把握研究范围内公路货物运输特征，将公路运输货物分为13种类型,具体见表3-3。表3-3货类划分表货类编号货物类别1煤炭2石油3金属矿石4钢铁5矿建材料6水泥7木料8非金属矿石9化肥及农药10盐11粮食12电子产品13其它2 2.交通小区的划分为更好研究交通出行分布特征，预测未来交通量，需合理划分交通小区。根据项目沿线地区社会经济特点和空间地理位置分布特征，以把握区域内公路交通流向特征为准则，以行政区划为基础，结合城镇体系、产业布局、旅游资源分布,同时参考历史项目交通小区划分，确定本项目交通小区进行划分。交通小区

6、划分情况见表3-4和图3-2。交通小区划分小区编号小区名称范围所属区域1都匀西甘塘、摆忙、江洲黔南州2都匀南石龙、平浪、凯口沙寨黔南州3都匀东坝固、大坪、王司、基场、阳和、奉和黔南州4都匀都匀市其它地区黔南州5三都三都县黔南州6贵定南云雾、铁场、窑上、抱管、猴场堡黔南州7贝/E贵定县其它地区黔南州8龙里南摆省、湾寨、羊场黔南州9龙里龙里县其它地区黔南州10惠水东甲烈、岗度、宁旺、摆金、摆榜、斗底、鸭绒黔南州11惠水北长田、大坝、高镇黔南州12惠水惠水县其它地区黔南州13广顺广顺、凯佐、马路黔南州14长顺除广顺外其他地区黔南州15平坝平坝县安顺市16西秀西秀区安顺市17镇宁镇宁县安顺市18紫云紫

7、云县安顺市19日正日正安顺市20关岭关岭安顺市21贵阳除花溪区以外地区贵阳市22贵阳北修文、息烽、开阳贵阳市23贵阳西清镇贵阳市24贵阳东乌当贵阳市25花溪花溪除花溪南其他地区贵阳市26花溪南马铃、燕楼、青岩、默陶、高坡贵阳市27罗甸罗甸县黔南州28黔南北福泉、瓮安黔南州29黔南南独山、平塘、荔波黔南州30六盘水六盘水贵州省31毕节毕节贵州省32黔东南黔东南（除黔东南南）黔东南州表3-4小区编号小区名称范围所属区域33黔东南南丹寨、榕江、从江、黎平黔东南州34黔西南黔西南贵州省35遵义遵义市贵州省36铜仁铜仁地区贵州省37湖南湖南省38OR广省39）西东部桂林、贺州、梧州、玉林40广西中部河池

8、、柳州、来宾、贵港、南宁、北海、钦州41厂四四部百色、崇左、防城42重庆四川重庆及以远43A房云南及以远图3-23-2交通小区划分示意图立於口但-我啪着善吃.自由f*AitIRAitIRAJi4必具n=Mi，占上H He 启坦KIMHIMHHNHN.niELUihfeMhfeMEHM-EHM-XELAXELA配置H HLSILSI三ETJ1ETJ1，宣m2）当。时式中:v一路段交通量;c一路段通行能力;a、b、a1、匕一回归参数，具体取值公路建设项目可行性研究方法改善。按不同vc及相应参数取值后，根据车速与行程时间的内在关系，对口进行非线性回归，得到参数标定结果如表3-33所示。标定的路阻函数

9、参数与美国公路局推荐的默认值0.15、4.0有一定差距，其原因主要是由于我国公路上行驶车辆中驾驶性能较差的中型车所占比例较高，行驶速度对交通量的反映较敏感。一当3m时2,交通量分配依照前面所述交通量分配方法，将各特征年的OD分布分配到相应的路网，得出各特征年新建项目、平行老路交通量以及无项目时老路交通量。分配结果参见表3-16表3-18。表3-16推荐方案各特征年交通量预测结果（单位：辆/日，标准小客车）路段20192019年20252025年20302030年20382038年杨柳街枢纽铁冲互通440397411635627191铁冲互通马场互通413091051548426029马场互通羊

10、烈枢纽404289661530125504羊烈枢纽坝固互通4579100231691028639坝固互通乌养枢纽4996109861846430579乌养枢纽王司互通5643140712399833530王司互通河阳枢纽6455155872571635555河阳枢纽富溪互通8989186782849838366富溪互通云雾枢纽8726184372880339059云雾枢纽云雾互通8726223613495651175云雾互通岗渡互通11022231933522351501岗渡互通摆金互通11176236253678952966摆金互通惠水枢纽11477246183819653759惠水枢纽人龙

11、枢纽16976364215949287365大龙枢纽沙坑互通11125246263982056847沙坑互通广顺互通10912243453958156613广顺互通冷坝枢纽10605235343812254457都匀支线（杨柳街枢纽乌养枢纽）443244329770977016536165362763827638东段（乌养枢纽雾枢纽）76657665170091700927116271163705537055西段（云雾枢纽冷坝枢纽）1169611696253032530340083400835757857578全线平均87198719190551905530470304704390343903

12、公路等级OfOfP高速公路、一级公路0.252.20二级公路1.642.17三级公路1.482.16四级公路1.742.17表3-15CtCt、参数标定结果表3-17相关平行公路交通量预测结果（单位：辆/日，标准小客车）分路段20192019年20252025年20302030年20382038年X007（惠水-广顺）58995513362301S309（惠水-昌明）1048213843696976S85（昌明-都匀）33455443694977153098根据上表预测结果，2019年、2025年、2030年和2038年本项目全线平均交通量分别为0.9万辆/日、1.9万辆/日、3.0万辆/日和

13、4.4万辆/日。从路段交通量分布来看，以云雾枢纽互通为界，都匀支线和东段交通量明显小于西段，其中都匀支线 （杨柳街枢纽乌养枢纽）2019年、2025年、2030年和2038年交通量分别为0.8万辆/日、1.7万辆/日、2.7万辆/日和3.7万辆/日，东段（乌养枢纽云雾枢纽段）交通量分别为0.8万辆/日、1.7万辆/日、2.7万辆/日和3.7万辆/日，西段（云雾枢纽冷坝枢纽段） 交通量分别为1.7万辆/日、2.5万辆/日、4.0万辆/日和5.7万辆/日。 末年 （2038年）交通量最大的路段是惠水枢纽-大龙枢纽段，年均交通量约为8.7万辆/日，交通量最小的路段是马场互通羊烈枢纽段，年均交通量约为

14、2.6万辆/日。在路线交通量预测的同时，通过对互通立交附近交通出行特征的分析，对部分交通小区按照人口、经济指标进行局部细化，预测转向交通量。图3-11、图3-12是各特征年互通转向交通量预测结果。3.车型预测从未来汽车市场发展趋势看，汽车消费需求结构由中间向两极分化、由公用型向私用型转变。轿车是支撑未来汽车需求的主导车型，随着居民收入的增加，居民出行向个性化、多样化方向发展，私人小轿车出行将持续增长，未来小客车比例将逐渐增加；未来货车车型将逐渐向两极发展，中型车明显减少，小型车、拖挂（集装箱）车将逐步增加。本项目处于黔中经济区，参照目前G60、S309和X007、X922等相关公路车型分布，通

15、过专家咨询确定未来通道内车型构成比例。预测结果见表3-19。表3-18车型比例构成预测单位：%年份小货中货大货拖挂小客大客合计20197.37.66.49.960.78.1100.020258.35.95.111.462.76.6100.020309.24.44.112.664.35.4100.0203810.52.02.514.567.03.5100.0注：车型比例按绝对数计算。图3-11各特征年推荐方案互通转向交通量示意图（都匀支线）超69741910589S689S6V074|10023109S6129Sy 7085140714315|2279|116e/1)271429p /27610

16、52|/20153234 /322025年2030年2038年15062719126029255Ml2741J/2863930579期马/21日4厂335301213594s/4783-55C/30254063、/(66O5?42spl36914338 /m2（单位：标准小客车）图3-12各特征年推荐方案互通转向交通量示意图（乌养枢纽终点段）（单位：标准小客车）互通广顺互通沙坑互通大龙枢纽惠水枢纽摆金互通岗渡互通云雾互通云雾枢纽富溪互通河阳枢纽2019年附表3-12013年客车OD表（单位：标准小客车，辆/日）234567891011121314151617181920212223242526

17、272829303132333435363738394041424313101359031310010090431100113405110346304900250028102631103050672801328000000001200038174811500590036100103103001004590560000000000000160710100024002262002230700764421045911500270713679710539130146055215053194209366077452032222262846411100402000600000002000000002040

18、000020000000755420305001101131260333311819963410541204800102602224264571122910111803002550426628153818264175241177551933518014273547257291887101210100020000002000000000000000200000000000000000490226600600000320208207626494614002000540213680010500060006026686224600404100072700022000000000000700420260

19、200020000400000202200000400000000012801126006820030190010600000404407000140000000007006006000001500000000002000100040000000009401128002203000500000000000015000000000000010110230240020020441520128384874315165449130057014018145111030101902510830056230211120100388181733980810341142475201891820366925713

20、217117836511105711701705170600000145376202913680982763112574441400171553591326198632511308125100152020000000078627000132000000040000000000000006037004010012732910600302071344616175005112801415061030221100032000000056768841173001551731426950062211006131729000094136174680302187007534144004881023829134

21、220158010584470770866521402537085421110618119235551711613557916901283350284209000004611747022221039802292881052600118270341027581122613230027332211676022921405900000158923671201042431549922177018123869236001091485930480413850521176310102228516542171360594584070900000511677303224710290181603671890029

22、937706179175310867182761321153340128740187000063120490191963513937493650107700417175181449149511305119161706529092000010131909313949240201108200030353310234251030130038221820724200100002000000070000020000000000000000000000000050000000000000000000007111915434102010022440153302041738521118285561570000

23、102751234322910215232428000005010000096717708147291401072000003036414270000813590010010020700132030405238976310033010313320500101663257190954906020000950570912108961265711110340010433004041071946665223521304517925310362200000000650201813831752770081304210035530708032015010000026201260016600209144272

24、516110023302950223130000321318515213100504144018871120261733525807859814617203361314459300581423102498711030033903000003720161851126971630023329633470339204002023280394090000055831031815436104483060023606549211436502040510532300306010000003201052122353163009911173020010000410040410000000000000723720

25、001500200300000067567068150200000174030117261028336600223223960461300009300101000000000000002012100030010010000001022301360200000106241011116582902821426800239155161426236413396901085015077011000002013328501641129481961319700321378236715749109420508710746467246202010528131969206733594719247271237682

26、6310161476296236919199442202213922704220109353883227722637115166924201471117941781403599181345492659附表3-22013年货车OD表（单位：标准小客车，辆/日）234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424341440609920002500017100057132841256201110531202104000143050133600000000400012099410010900627700

27、935116001901080210000018000000001206751001000549001992271028212000263430340526741252221512100140528332245371033401830319525653024781213180000013001802000000000000000050000020000000833200200000330100222004101381351091292650140013191902414444191040735313000173010149041726721475211072191502004911010070

28、503223232098492117051714000000000100020000000000000000000000000000004200173001500000000001962854654260010003400631021601000018000150128224025018000010900020970009000000000000520010110012804300000000000000201370000023000000001871233490022443005060500160002214239001800290000000004100000000000100000000

29、000000000000000000000251010412025050001300060000000011000000000000000200214020000006773208736102519233020002020141100001041104144024260418082136650110774323654948810074418157370018740524196201973511653721440020090000000601046062839023942203882120005201409337178411305794001000200005000707400024400000

30、007000000000000020200140000000882372500541034128344000030160820463611613112142002701000004153938203208432158104450024202023661023219014181443650132494019610901620105527209259951220294520909965401322012467641848344770312884113171341410757280351180280000011883402565308407367144431006211227872228274932

31、126132544271443025136570140235049000001807322220139156225571404251678188001078422167997722734410802423962081192154501011490670000063717061899276432016457005470795217302472154761322910545013116002220200411767205250544437175113205652069146114593810137225237120211110833604227011002005382703123154541692

32、755200024568871727221639223130071051100921400000000200020002200000000000000000000070200000000000000000000000000000098182975231060301373901101811710013461113527114220000257222192406620162546000011000010097220029306890640000071385704510306865001400000000000106007523010032000000007460531100859043220145

33、050409018002192004718659153851511200276430739213368382477922630616220101326050000001120014517923067200290061001150511700102025022000000014174890223565197714533001134617102102000003413950142210060232900930160922744281518779721001127791891000756720165516454560100250800000045025421822860200133030802003

34、971040213912280101030280000089581011412901514187122765002642387050387442502160613481017045100000000411011681336630533003310193137400000156005019000000001300020232091610010005101110000047405601415500000000673405921824412287112542001542063112170141000044500100200000000010005552400020010030000001200320

35、5100000000769800153841941921341159003028973814221652371263845510017500300270000000313385025106740118301096009867440913235221376319018970930635004188730661369056450058246359128357662600103988518541208190588899250953501314142101873166512303321903139169201007446979426124796741153368附表3-32013年机动车OD表（单位：

36、标准小客车，辆/日）23456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142431724176504121201021404328101139718138387545620361033143933207050191033026640000000052001401165715600168009888019661190030056707160000180000000028014186100340027111003101223410104554004851493061059203493503320410230

37、286433851729722113012706181078715282727565212145324230040213002402000002000000002090000040000000158862023050044021334703743255334744234676062002345130228399101221146918147113300428010575669226326419112273148397701293843002421431050461052381855822191527190020000001200200000000000020000000000000000091

38、024390021000003202010163511771489200030008802189182170150002400021015429264742300401490001021670021000000000000059001051201540450002000040000040160000002700000000181992447500292450080250510220002218283071800430000000004900600600000250000000000200010004000000000345021692047080001800060000000026000000

39、000000010310417054002002721184021473589481708578015005100160322651110401430061960325609232382324267604988156057513571521214321921924756205414326237413136913340127631302610110052606000002054808035164119910661051329821262600172073731335413571101022601383450026204000050001493310003760000000110000000000

40、000209032100401002155661310085310175751961500514224022180523711643333142006901000009713071223176202394947236531000765112084977232219022584921832043423640948149420205921551103839231628001352967978082119227345495152485129026423543252034507718250411042358103306316003700000572048104688134820302915854957

41、007319497121315585603415214556457147035734221330369449010800000176930981423056347172482892022375547425002162328147117848910778652714334341949328463221810695733077600000572038903841809416622480531247003541077862313483132139336152264401488002592340401002001052961210716911795755500496016432011021618977

42、521495023429913321621274922010856020202001551460402629310440922816340005381041181051476226422361600109263020164182001000040002000300000020000000000000007020000000050000000000000000000001692912129572080140160830263483111107519812303371263030000012837345334691683539410741500001601001001813919701023101

43、142291014600000101749212531030142224001500100207001426304804681076620033010320770103111025112291040022105401001001800106977013191274120418796261460013197304761992128215034711131356757715473304949050000001770212262017520594100011030482004655912408132327027010000041375349018836275345043969140014675316

44、604233300006526913529415200100274340261171280343940968622104689143382044820936318410583812219654142117703103640110000031170310228294910576600366212713670736309023311155601319703700000131531120145944418752111925872004949315255959897890411101014534247034580100000071302112014589836960013221366157410000

45、198001005100000000013000282623161810024007101410000053125123082170020000017538063229946633015416249003774210217221515400005380020120000000001000756450005002004000000130255018160200000181321210264910767094951814217005337251542849401641016545545110260013409140110000023267370041521968831343128140041224

46、567616289853214705114027617839521074761289783471626597705749419355160091814210863205523614816490002900230921164311239333232351457563941349310437257238112163128016251119731933968086646027附表3-42019年客车OD表（单位：辆/日标准小客车）23456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142433023345406

47、362002002108631002272911231748651050049006321413722060130131785025540000000034000792141002310001120078200204206002201130010120000000000000330142120004600481240043501400187810450812924700600183381522121159192502106312118350124448601986140187211577505442519146231120080300011000000030000000030600000300

48、000001410118305090022020529100556123436111821977630810019460404538710422756192405050044808511050258930311731787531510091716329023613610384413523511114238022004000000400000000000000030000000000000000011004467001300000730401548131151236882600350010704241211002011000110001306416212488170090900001641400

49、055000000000000180083064050006000090000040440000090000000003210225100162500605200201300000708501500029000000000150010001200000350000000000300020007000000000215020500048060001300000000000027000000000000020230350380030047272450223668687726519789230081302603325914105021340515301971012176824927466008876

50、170983819852617291615051322946408417951513256029422641032701742950215082801000000234860704223413841458112194613279250027281510922469171114072230172441002930300000000164039000212000000060000000000000001405120090200222814183005539525834313310009224160272808206054020005400000009818971446275602953358750

51、171000104322001188324120000217875361083055833900142290980087225911461216419299020829901513950129127339663170838225734038268773562215410152216212496612052770170000083299840424220458044271752105100201654270195411335436204580647634333173041638201100000027935897208307955879581421503509753545300192292116

52、610148808161710615896191934658315883631801109106901353000009242713006246139981793513073437200541614145533934104227932841482762211680024013603416000011430887037361255277727272802127007414215534289629138225012137213390120530174000018333301762719645939621410005461067194664720603100783329301447300200003

53、000000011000003000000000000000000000000009000000000000000000000135211942658170017044850265703262126893820751510227110000192388460613714427410860140000090200000171753210162714518276201440000060745284100000192718002002004015002840608054771891262005602062624070020397107011174301710430119500001713310501

54、824222712653214672286900195760079521144206195936610527492341861184064380000000015904034161533325213001406082900610740130180650290200000475194680311159416288355032220046754191004361800007726016103432418090929703221819504932647011306162815890333058122589911759010112145905804136207406750600000619402123

55、832353203346004464208768140495308004134460412001200000610338042421150140674280029809391229195340205081445355044901000000630208019358225500140222740310100007600100820000000000000144614400028004006000000141410153012427040000021770602255019316170120039444781108824000021500202000000000000004024200060020

56、020000002056402913050000021189870252515426866493362190049223713932625494257214208201980212013130210000036336501030772519437426381400572754473133119421129301002042508150816922383788995263709477170833100407944129490165072030294959167257839206432942737013845395117497318457145431428633514860295313602252

57、7626113178025106195236附表3-52019年货车OD表（单位：辆/日标准小客车）2345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243830863019340005110003820001122656825012402120106240320700160306570267200000000900024018188200212001321500020482290041023504200000420000000024012141020020001196002131444920607

58、258005268506901251568953543345419028135867459161370654036647381501211423713147430430000023003604000000000000000090000030000000166640037000070019046400718672251204240499025002534216031207732192279147012300032102221040801355134261395920340728137292190180120985395414112570362839363100000000020004000000

59、000000000000000000000000840032000310000000000364541011237911001800670011613321002100036000310315535055042000022500040181400020000000000000124002232003160110000000000000004029600000490000000041165470105005351100011015010003400044294820041006000000000085000000000002200000000000000000000000000005330198

60、040550110002900012000000002100000000000000039042504000000138757015865183934955440003040251900002082409329050550942020529136902315149750611751033218159339336800037143011494114121425821124617636500400160000000107219001052724439793771515223000870270169652996222012120600190040000100001421700043000000001