人力资源需求的预测(1)ppt课件

1、人力资源需求的预测.人力资源供求情况分析升职升职招聘岗位编制调入降职降职离任调出人才市场竞争对手其他部门其他业务本部门本部门.人力资源需求的预测A key component of HRP is forecasting the number and type of people needed to meet organizational objectives. A variety of organizational factors, including competitive strategy, technology, structure, and productivity, can infl

2、uence the demand.Forecasting HR RequirementsEstimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need at future datesDemand for firms goods or services must be forecastForecast is then converted into people requirements.Forecasting HR AvailabilityDetermining whether the firm will be able

3、 to secure employees with the necessary skills, and from what sources these individuals may be obtainedShow whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the company, from outside the organization, or from a combination of the two sources.人才贮藏第一年第二年第三年n1n2n3招聘招聘人才贮藏1人才贮藏2n2n人才贮藏招聘需求n3n2人才

4、贮藏2人才贮藏需求人才稀缺度越高人才贮藏越重要规划的关键是n1、n2、n3确实定.定量分析方法(Quantitative Approaches )Quantitative approaches to forecasting involve the use of statistical or mathematical technique; they are the approaches used by theoreticians and professional planners. .趋势预测法 (Trend analysis )“With the past, we can see trajec

5、tories into the future - both catastrophic and creative projections. -John Ralston Saul The Trend Analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response data over time. This is especially valuable, if you are conducting a long running survey and would like to measure differences in perception and re

6、sponses over time. .预测步骤搜集企业在过去几年内人员数量的数据根据这些数据做图，用数学方法进展修正，使其成为平滑曲线 将这条曲线延伸就可以看出未来的变化趋势 .例题某企业过去8年人员的数据如下表，预测今后第二年和第四年人力资源的需求是多少。年度12345678人数450455465480485490510525.定性分析法Qualitative analysisQualitative approaches to forecasting are less statistical, attempting to reconcile the interests, abilities

7、, and aspirations of individual employees with the current and future staffing need of an organization.客观判别法Management forecastsManagement forecasts are the opinions (judgments) of supervisors, department managers, experts, or others knowledgeable about the organizations future employment needs.德尔菲法

8、Delphi technique 德尔菲法：也称专家小组法，是采用咨询意见表，利用通讯方式，向一个专家小组进展调查，将专家小组的判别预测加以集中、反响，并反复调查多次，最终利用集体的智慧得出市场景象未来预测结果的定性预测方法。.差距提交反响修正提交反响修正提交反响同意第一轮第二轮第三轮提交：运营方案、编制、人力本钱反响：优缺陷、建议、意见修正：运营方案、财务预算经过反复的反响与修正缩短运营方案与公司总体财务预算的差距。.特征匿名性 匿名是德尔菲法的极其重要的特点，从事预测的专家彼此互不知道其他有哪些人参与预测，他们是在完全匿名的情况下交流思想的。 .多次有控制的反响 小组成员的交流是经过回答组

9、织者的问题来实现的。它普通要经过假设干轮反响才干完成预测。.小组的统计回答 它报告一个中位数和两个四分点，其中一半落在两个四分点内，一半落在两个四分点之外。这样，每种观念都包括在这样的统计中了，防止了专家会议法的一个缺陷。.德尔菲法的实施步骤： 1 确定预测标题，选定专家小组；2 设计调查表，预备有关资料；3 咨询专家初次判别意见；4 综合整理收回的各位专家初次判别意见，作出定量化的归纳，加以必要阐明。并反响给各位专家，请他们再次思索，提出判别意见；5 经过反复咨询意见后，做出预测值。.优缺陷德尔菲法的优点： 1 各专家可以在不受干扰的情况下，独立、充分地阐明本人的意见； 2 预测值是根据各位

10、专家的意见综合而成的，可以发扬集体的智慧； 3 运用面比较广，费用比较节省。德尔菲法的缺陷： 在综合预测值时，仅仅是根据各专家的客观判别，缺乏客观规范，而且显得强求一致。.PURPOSEThe purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments from participants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does so without physically assembling the contrib

11、utors. Instead, information is exchanged via mail, FAX, or . This technique is designed to take advantage of participants creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It is structured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize the liabilities of group problem-solving. .PROCESS Identify the issue and solicit