港口、铁路、高速公路行业投资分析ppt课件

1、蒸蒸日上的中国港口业 分析员:郑栋2007年8月12日内容提要 第一章 行业根本面回想 第二章 重点公司引荐2第一章行业根本面回想3吞吐量大增. GDP和外贸增长是主要动力 今年上半年国内主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅较上年同期略低2个百分点。上半年中国GDP增长11.5%,外贸增长23.3%, 成为港口吞吐量上升的最重要动力。资料来源: CEIC, 中金公司研讨部This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or c

2、omplete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned he

3、rein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of t

4、his document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 4集装箱业务表现最为强劲资料来源 : 中金公司研讨部,中国航贸网在港口业务中,今年上半年集装箱吞吐量创下24.4% 的同比升幅,较上年同期的增速高1.2个百分点,在一切港口业务中居首。This repor

5、t is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with

6、 it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong

7、) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 5

8、集装箱业务增长的动力:外贸增长,出口晋级及运输集装箱化率的提升资料来源: CEIC, 辽宁师大,中金公司研讨部 我们的宏观分析小组估计今明两年外贸将分别增长26%和20%。中国的出口构造继续晋级。中国的集装箱化率远低于国际同业。我们估计未来三年，中国港口集装箱业务年复合增长率将达 20%。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to bu

9、y or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform

10、 investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of un

11、authorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 6短期内无须担忧港口吞吐才干过剩据交通部规划，到2021年中国将拥有377个集装箱泊位,总设计吞吐才干为1.36亿TEU。2006年，中国集装箱吞吐量达9,300万TEU ，我们估计明年将升至 1.339亿TEU，到2021年底将接近设计吞吐才干。未来四年强劲的需求应会缓冲继续扩容压力，极大

12、缓解吞吐才干过剩的担忧。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and

13、others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital

14、Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs

15、 written permission. 7增值税退税调整影响不大 机械和运输设备在中国的出口中占主要部分。近期的增值税退税调整对这部分的影响甚微，调整后其退税率仍高达9-11%， 居于首位。 中国政府鼓励高附加值机械产品的开展，这有望推升港口吞吐量。资料来源: CEIC, 中金公司研讨部This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to bu

16、y or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform

17、 investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of un

18、authorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 8投资主题: 内生增长及资产扩张腹地的经济增长潜能，尤其是外贸开展，对于港口的内生增长而言至关重要。因此，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲以及环渤海地域仍是中国港口开展的主要地域。中国港口的建立或重组将为运营商提供注资的时机。 This report is based on information a

19、vailable to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positio

20、ns in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China Inte

21、rnational Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 9第二章重点公司引荐 10天津港: 谨慎引荐天津港是我们

22、引荐的港口类股票的首选腹地经济开展将带来货源支持 集装箱业务的快速开展加快公司的业务转型 资产注入将进一步提高盈利程度 天津港区开展空间宏大估值分析This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities m

23、entioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also

24、be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotatio

25、n by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 11天津港：腹地省份GDP将实现快于全国平均程度的增长资料来源: CEIC,中金公司研讨部天津港直接经济腹地占全国面积的46.9%。 “十五期间，天津港腹地省份GDP增长率均快于全国平均程度。“十一五期间，腹地经济的快速开展将极大推进天津口岸进出口总值的增长，从而为天津港货物吞吐量带来货源支持。This report is based on information available to the public. No repre

26、sentation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactio

27、ns in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Ho

28、ng Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 12天津港：天津口岸进出口总值预测资料来源: CEIC,中金公司研讨部“十五期间，天津港腹地省份的GDP出口依存度逐渐上

29、升，使得天津口岸进出口总值实现快于腹地GDP总量增长 。口岸进出口总值相对腹地GDP的弹性由2001年的0.84上升至2006年的1.62。 根据腹地经济GDP增长预测，我们估计未来5年天津口岸进出口总值年复合增长约20.1%。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of

30、 an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services f

31、or those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, repro

32、duction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 13天津港：进出口构造晋级整体利好集装箱吞吐量的增长速度资料来源: CEIC,中金公司研讨部2001年2005年期间，天津市进出口构造出现较为明显的晋级趋势：机械及运输设备进出口占比由2001年的55%上升至2005年的63%。 天津口岸进出口构造晋级对于集装箱吞吐量的影响以正面为主。集装箱吞吐量增长相对进出口总值的弹性在2004年见底之后呈现明显上

33、升趋势，估计天津口岸进出口构造仍将继续晋级，进一步推进集装箱吞吐量实现快于进出口总值的增长。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China Internation

34、al Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong K

35、ong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or ind

36、ividual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 14天津港：集装箱需求强劲增长资料来源: 公司数据，中金公司研讨部2006年天津港区在建的集装箱工程主要包括北港池一、二、三期，估计2021年全部建成后，天津港区的集装箱吞吐才干将增长约2.44倍至1343万TEU左右。我们估计天津口岸集装箱吞吐量将于“十一五期间年复合增长22.2%，于2021年到达1,308万TEU，对产能利用率构成剧烈的支撑。需求的强劲增长亦将极大减少天津港股份与天津港开展的竞争风险。 This report is based on information av

37、ailable to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have position

38、s in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China Inter

39、national Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 天津港集装箱吞吐量及产能利用率15天津港：天津港集装箱分泊

40、位吞吐量预测资料来源: 中金公司研讨部2006年公司投资11.7亿元投资北港池3期合资公司，占51%股权，估计于2021年下半年投产，建成后将成为港区最大的集装箱工程。受利于北港池3期工程，估计集装箱吞吐量将于20052021年期间年复合增长25.3%至2021年的694万TEU，增长速度快于整个天津港区约3.1个百分点。 于天津港区集装箱吞吐量的市场份额将由2005年的47%上升6个百分点至2021年的53%。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that

41、 it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of co

42、mpanies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Lim

43、ited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 16天津港：资产注入的盈利增厚远超出预期资料来源: 中金公司研讨部天津港股份将向 天津港集团定向增发不超越2.26亿股，用于收买天津港集团未上市运营资产。我们估计资

44、产收买后，公司2007、2021年每股盈利分别为0.583元及0.659元，对应增厚效应46%及58%。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China Inter

45、national Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in

46、Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution

47、or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 17天津港：天津港区开展空间宏大资料来源: 公司数据，中金公司研讨部东疆港区：东疆港区占地约30平方公里，其中10平方公里的地域为东疆保税港区，是我国目前规模最大的保税港区。南疆散杂货物流中心：配合“北煤南移的战略转移，天津港集团投资开发了南疆散杂货物流中心，占地约13平方公里。临港工业区：天津临港工业区占地面积将到达150平方公里，相当于目前整个天津港区的1.4倍。估计到2021年，临港工业区将实现销售收入1000亿元，GDP到达300亿元以上。This report

48、is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with i

49、t (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong)

50、Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 东疆港

51、区规划图18天津港：天津港集团资产贮藏仍比较丰富目前集团旗下主要的未注入的资产包括在建的30万吨原油码头，南疆散杂货物流中心等。目前临港工业园的股权比重仍未最终确定，但我们估计天津港集团实现参股乃至控股的能够性仍比较大。注资完成之后天津港股份运营资产所涉及的面积仅为1.7平方公里，而光南疆散杂货物流中心面积就有13平方公里左右，临港工业区的面积更是与现有运营性资产的面积不在一个数量级。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate

52、 or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mention

53、ed herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright

54、 of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 19天津港：A股、H股上市公司整合资料来源: 公司数据, 中金公司研讨部在同一港区两个上市公司进展同业竞争集装箱业务的格局不利于港区的长期开展。因此港口资源整合具有较大的必要性。作为国资委系列的

55、指点及天津港股份的董事长，于汝民先生上任天津港开展商务委员会系列公司的董事长给市场剧烈的有关A股、H股上市公司整合的暗示。我们判别在集团主要资产注入完成之后，A、H股整合将有能够被提上议事日程。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy o

56、r sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies

57、. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publicati

58、on, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICCs written permission. 20天津港 : 高估值不损长期投资价值资料来源: 彭博资讯，中金公司研讨部天津港目前股价相当于2007、2021年市盈率 思索资产注入影响48.3倍及42.7倍，在A股交通根底设备中处于较高的程度。思索增长率的PEG程度，天津港估值仍处于合理程度。思索港区未来的开展及A、H股整合带来的投资时机，我们以为天津港仍具较高的投资价值。进一步的股价驱动来自A、H股整合活动的开展。This re

59、port is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated w

60、ith it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong K