TED演讲—JosephNye《21世纪权力的变迁》中英对照教学提纲

1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。TED演讲JosephNye21世纪权力的变迁中英对照-Imgoingtotalktoyouaboutpowerinthis21stcentury.Andbasically,whatIdliketotellyouisthatpowerischanging,andtherearetwotypesofchangesIwanttodiscuss.Oneispowertransition,whichischangeofpoweramongststates.Andtheyarethesimpleversionof

2、themessage,isitsmovingfromWesttoEast.Theotherispowerdiffusion,thewaypowerismovingfromallstates,WestorEast,tonon-stateactors.Thosetwothingsarethehugeshiftsofpowerinourcentury.AndIwanttotellyouaboutthemeachseparatelyandthenhowtheyinteractandwhy,intheend,theremaybesomegoodnews.我想讨论的是21世纪的权利。基本上我想告诉大家的是

3、权利的变化，有两种变化是我想探讨的。一种是权利的转移，国家和国家之间的权利变化。这是对权利转移的简单解读，即权利正从西方转移到东方。另一种是权利的分散，即权利的转移是从西方和东方的各个国家到非国家的范围。以上两种情况是本世纪权利的重要转移。我想分别说说这两种情况和它们之间的相互影响以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。Whenwetalkaboutpowertransition,weoftentalkabouttheriseofAsia.Itreallyshouldbecalledtherecovery,orreturn,ofAsia.Ifwelookedattheworldin1800,youdf

4、indthatmorethanhalfoftheworldspeoplelivedinAsiaandtheymademorethanhalftheworldsproduct.Nowfastforwardto1900:halftheworldspeople-morethanhalf-stillliveinAsia,buttheyremakingonlyafifthoftheworldsproduct.Whathappened?TheIndustrialRevolution,whichmeantthatallofasudden,EuropeandAmericabecamethedominantce

5、nteroftheworld.Whatweregoingtoseeinthe21stcenturyisAsiagraduallyreturningtobeingmorethanhalfoftheworldspopulationandmorethanhalfoftheworldsproduct.Thatsimportant,anditsanimportantshift.ButletmetellyoualittlebitabouttheothershiftthatImtalkingabout,whichispowerdiffusion.说到权利的转移，我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。确切地说应该称作亚洲

6、的复兴或者亚洲的回归。回顾19世纪的世界，你会发现世界上一半以上的人口都居住在亚洲而且他们生产的产品占了世界总量的一半以上。现在我们来看20世纪，世界上一般的人口超过一半仍然在亚洲居住，但是他们的生产总值进占全球的五分之一。这是为什么呢？工业革命，也就是说突然之间，欧洲和美国成为主导世界的中心。而到了21世纪，我们看到的是亚洲将重新回到占世界一半以上人口和生产总值的位置。这很重要，而且是一次重大的权利转移。但是接下来我要和你们探讨一下刚才提到的另外一种转移，那就是权利分散。Tounderstandpowerdiffusionputthisinyourmind:computingandcommu

7、nicationscostshavefallenathousandfoldbetween1970andthebeginningofthiscentury.Nowthatsabig,abstractnumber,buttomakeitmorereal,ifthepriceofanautomobilehadfallenasrapidlyasthepriceofcomputingpower,youcouldbuyacartodayforfivedollars.Nowwhenthepriceofanytechnologydeclinesthatdramatically,thebarrierstoent

8、rygodown;anybodycanplayinthegame.Soin1970,ifyouwantedtocommunicatefromOxfordtoJohannesburgtoNewDelhitoBrasiliaandanywheresimultaneously,youcoulddoit,thetechnologywasthere.Buttobeabletodoit,youhadtobeveryrich-agovernment,amultinationalcorporation,maybetheCatholicChurch-butyouhadtobeprettywealthy.Now,

9、anybodyhasthatcapacity,whichpreviouslywasrestrictedbypricejusttoafewactors,iftheyhavethepriceofentryintoaninternetcafe-thelasttimeIlooked,itwassomethinglikeapoundanhour-andifyouhaveSkype,itsfree.Socapabilitiesthatwereoncerestrictedarenowavailabletoeveryone.要理解权利分散就要明白一点：计算和交流的成本已经降到原来的千分之几从1970年到本世纪

10、初。这个数字很大，很抽象，但是具体来说，如果汽车价格的降幅和计算机的降幅一样，那么今天你只花五美元，就可以买辆车。那么如果所有的技术价格都以这个幅度下跌，获得这一技术的门槛就会降低；人人都可以享有。从20世纪70年代开始，如果你想从牛津到约翰内斯堡或到新德里或到巴西利亚或是其他任何地方获得即时通讯，是可行的，因为技术已经发展到了这个阶段。但是要真正做到这一点，你需要很有钱才行你要么是政府，要么是跨国公司，也可能是基督教堂不过你得及其有钱才行。但是几天人人都能享有这些技术，以前人们受到价格的制约只有少数人才能享有，如果人们有足够的钱去网吧我上次查到的价格大概是每小时一磅左右但是如果你用Skype

11、，是免费的。所以曾经被限制的能力现在人人都可以享有。AndwhatthatmeansisnotthattheageoftheStateisover.TheStatestillmatters.Butthestageiscrowded.TheStatesnotalone.Therearemany,manyactors.Someofthatsgood.Oxfam,agreatnon-governmentalactor.Someofitsbad.AlQaeda,anothernon-governmentalactor.Butthinkofwhatitdoestohowwethinkintraditio

12、naltermsandconcepts.Wethinkintermsofwarandinterstatewar.Andyoucanthinkbackto1941,whenthegovernmentofJapanattackedtheUnitedStatesatPearlHarbor.Itsworthnoticingthatanon-stateactorattackingtheUnitedStatesin2001killedmoreAmericansthanthegovernmentofJapandidin1941.Youmightthinkofthatastheprivatizationofw

13、ar.Sowereseeingagreatchangeintermsofdiffusionofpower.这并不意味着国家的时代结束了。国家依然很重要。但是舞台是很拥挤的。国家不可能单独存在。还有很多很多的角色。其中有一些是好的角色。比如牛津饥荒救济委员会（乐施会）就是一个很重要的非政府角色。其中也有一些是不好的。基地组织，是另一个非政府角色。但是试想这些对我们传统的思维方式和观念有哪些改变。我们过去考虑的是战争和内战。大家可以想一想1941年，日本政府日本政府袭击美国珍珠港。只得注意的是在2001年，一个非政府的角色袭击了美国在这次袭击中丧生的美国人超过了1941年日本政府的行为。你可能会想

14、战争已经不再是国家行为。因此我们看到的是权力分散的一个重大变化。Nowtheproblemisthatwerenotthinkingaboutitinveryinnovativeways.Soletmestepbackandask:whatspower?Powerissimpletheabilitytoaffectotherstogettheoutcomesyouwant,andyoucandoitinthreeways.Youcandoitwiththreats,ofcoercion-sticks,youcandoitwithpayments-carrots,oryoucandoitbyge

15、ttingotherstowantwhatyouwant.Andthatabilitytogetotherstowantwhatyouwant,togettheoutcomesyouwant,withoutcoercionorpayment,iswhatIcallsoftpower.Andthatsoftpowerhasbeenmuchneglectedandmuchmisunderstood.Andyetitstremendouslyimportant.Indeed,ifyoucanlearntousemoresoftpower,youcansavealotoncarrotsandstick

16、s.Traditionally,thewaypeoplethoughtaboutpowerwasprimarilyintermsofmilitarypower.Forexample,thegreatOxfordhistorianwhotaughthereatthisuniversity,A.J.P.Taylor,definedagreatpowerasacountryabletoprevailinwar.Butweneedanewnarrativeifweretounderstandpowerinthe21stcentury.Itsnotjustprevailingatwar,thoughwa

17、rstillpersists.Itsnotwhosearmywins;itsalsowhosestorywins.Andwehavetothinkmuchmoreintermsofnarrativesandwhosenarrativeisgoingtobeeffective.HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html可问题是HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html我们对此的看法不够新。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/

18、eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html所以让我们再退一步重新审视HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html并且想一想：什么是权利？HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html权利其实就是一种能力HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html能够影响他人HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/jos

19、eph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html以达到你的目的，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html实现权利的方式有三种。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html可以威胁他人，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html通过强迫棍棒，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_glob

20、al_power_shifts.html可以买通他人HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html胡萝卜，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html或者通过让别人心甘情愿地HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html做你想要达成的结果。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.

21、html而让别人心甘情愿地做逆向要做的，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html来达到你的目的，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html而不是通过强迫或买通，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html就是我所说的软实力。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.htm

22、l而这种软实力很大程度上被人们所忽视HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html所误解了。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html然而软实力是极其重要地。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html事实上，如果你知道如何HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html运用

23、软实力，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html你会节省很多地HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html胡萝卜和棍棒。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html按照惯例，人们认为权利HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html基本就是军事力量。HYPERLINK/

24、talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html例如来自牛津的伟大的历史学家HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.htmlA.J.P.泰勒HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html对大国的定义是HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html能够打赢战争的国家。HYPERLINK/talks/lan

25、g/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html但是我们需要一个新的阐述HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html来真正懂得21世纪地权利。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html权利不仅仅是赢得战争HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html尽管战争依旧存在。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/en

26、g/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html哪一个国家的军队赢了并不重要；HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html重要的是谁讲的故事能够赢得人心。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html而且我们需要进一步考虑这个阐释HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html以及谁的阐释更加有效。Nowletmegoback

27、tothequestionofpowertransitionbetweenstatesandwhatshappeningthere.thenarrativesthatweusenowtendtobetheriseandfallofthegreatpowers.AndthecurrentnarrativeisallabouttheriseofChinaandthedeclineoftheUnitedStates.Indeed,withthe2008financialcrisis,manypeoplesaidthiswasthebeginningoftheendofAmericanpower.Th

28、etectonic【筑造的;构造的】platesofworldpoliticswereshifting.AndpresidentMedvedevofRussia,forexample,pronouncedin2008thiswasthebeginningoftheendofUnitedStatespower.Butinfact,thismetaphor【暗喻】ofdeclineisoftenverymisleading.Ifyoulookathistory,inrecenthistory,youllseethecyclesofbeliefinAmericandeclinecomeandgoev

29、ery10or15yearsorso.In1958,aftertheSovietsputupSputnik【俄人造卫星】,itwasThatstheendofAmerica.In1973,withtheoilembargo【禁运】andtheclosingofthegoldwindow,thatwastheendofAmerica.Inthe1980s,asAmericawentthroughatransitionintheReaganperiod,betweentherustbelt【铁锈地带(指从前工业繁盛今已衰落的发达国家一些地区】economyofthemidwesttotheSili

30、conValleyeconomyofCalifornia,thatwastheendofAmerica.Butinfact,whatweveseenisnoneofthoseweretrue.Indeed,peoplewereover-enthusiasticintheearly2000s,thinkingAmericacoulddoanything,whichledusintosomedisastrousforeignpolicyadventures,andnowwerebacktodeclineagain.HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_glo

31、bal_power_shifts.html现在我要回到HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html国家之间HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html权利转移HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html的问题HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html讲讲最新的动态。HY

32、PERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html我们现在用的阐释HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html大多是大国的HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html崛起和没落。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html而近来这种阐述全都是HYPERLINK/talks/lang

33、/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html中国的崛起HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html和美国的没落。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html确实，2008年发生的经济危机HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html会让很多人说这是HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_n

34、ye_on_global_power_shifts.html美国领导力终结的开始。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html全球政治格局的板块HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html正在发生转变。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html例如俄罗斯的总统梅德韦杰夫，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_g

35、lobal_power_shifts.html在2008年曾说过HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html经济危机是美国领导力结束HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html的开端。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html然而事实上，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shift

36、s.html这种衰落的比喻HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html非常误导人。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html如果回顾历史，近代历史HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html你会发现这种认为HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html美国衰落的说法HYP

37、ERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html每隔10年到20年左右就会出现。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html1958年，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html苏联发射人造卫星以后HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html人们就说“美国要衰落了。”HYPERL

38、INK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html1973年的石油禁运HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html和黄金窗口的关闭，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html又有人说美国要衰落了。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html20世纪80年代，HYPERLINK/talks

39、/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html在里根就职期间，美国经历了一次HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html从美国中西部老工业基地HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html到加州的硅谷经济的转变，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html又有人在说美国要衰落了。HYPERLINK/tal

40、ks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html但事实上，我们发现HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html所有这些谣言都不是真的。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html事实上，正是人们在21世纪初HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html过分乐观，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/

41、eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html认为美国无所不能，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html导致了我们作出了一些灾难性的HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html外交政策，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html现在又出现了美国衰落的声音。Themoralofthisstoryisallthe

42、senarrativesaboutriseandfallanddeclinetellusalotmoreaboutpsychologythantheydoaboutreality.Ifwetrytofocusonthereality,thenwhatweneedtofocusoniswhatsreallyhappeningintermsofChinaandtheUnitedStates.GoldmanSachshasprojectedthatChina,theChineseeconomy,willsurpassthatoftheU.S.by2027.Sowevegot,what,17morey

43、earstogoorsobeforeChinasbigger.Nowsomeday,withabillionpointthreepeoplegettingricher,theyaregoingtobebiggerthantheUnitedStates.ButbeverycarefuloftheseprojectionssuchastheGoldmanSachsprojectionasthoughthatgivesyouanaccuratepictureofpowertransitioninthiscentury.Letmementionthreereasonswhyitstoosimple.F

44、irstofall,itsalinearprojection.Youknow,everythingsays,heresthegrowthrateofChina,heresthegrowthrateoftheU.S.,hereitgoes-straightline.Historyisnotlinear.Thereareoftenbumpsalongtheroad,accidentsalongtheway.ThesecondthingisthattheChineseeconomypassestheU.S.economyin,letssay,2030,whichitmayit【就算事实真的如此】,t

45、hatwillbeameasureoftotaleconomicsize,butnotofpercapitaincome-wonttellyouaboutthecompositionoftheeconomy.Chinastillhaslargeareasofunderdevelopment.Andpercapitaincomeisabettermeasureofthesophisticationoftheeconomy.AndthattheChinesewontcatchuporpasstheAmericansuntilsomewhereinthelatterpart,after2050,of

46、thiscentury.HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html总之HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html所有这些关于崛起，倒退和衰落的阐述HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html讲的更多的是一种心理HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html而不是事实。H

47、YPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html现在让我们只关注事实，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html那么我们就需要关注HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html当下在中国和美国HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html正在发生的事情。HYPERLINK/tal

48、ks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html高盛预言HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html中国，中国经济HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html将会在2027年HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html超过美国。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_o

49、n_global_power_shifts.html所以我们只剩下HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html在中国超过美国之前HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html我们只剩下17年左右。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html也许未来HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_sh

50、ifts.html等到这1.3亿人口富起来的时候，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html他们将超过美国。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html但是不要轻易接受HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html高盛这些公司做出的预测。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts

51、.html尽管这些预测能给你本世纪潜力转移的HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html精确画面。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html让我来给出为什么这些预测过于简单的原因。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html第一，它是线性的预测。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_s

52、hifts.html种种迹象HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html这是中国的增长率，这是美国的增长率，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html请看直线HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html然而历史不是一条直线。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html历

53、史进程经常出现曲折和突发事件。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html第二HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html中国经济HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html如果说在2030年超过了美国经济，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html就算事实真的如此，H

54、YPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html也是按经济总量来衡量的，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html并非人均收入HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html并不能说明经济的组成。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html中国的广大地区HYPERLINK/tal

55、ks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html还很落后。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html人均收入能够更好的衡量HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html经济的复杂性。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html在这之后，中国才有可能在人均收入HYPERLINK/talks/lang/e

56、ng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html超过美国，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html那会是在本世纪，2050年以后。Theotherpointthatsworthnoticingishowone-dimensionalthisprojectionis.Youknow,itlooksateconomicpowermeasuredbyGDP.Doesnttellyoumuchaboutmilitarypower,doesnttellyouverymuchabouts

57、oftpower.Itsallone-dimensional.Andalso,whenwethinkabouttheriseofAsia,orreturnofAsia,asIcalleditalittlebitearlier,itsworthrememberingAsiasnotonething.IfyouresittinginJapan,orinNewDelhi,orinHanoi,yourviewoftheriseofChinaisalittledifferentthanifyouresittinginBeijing.Indeed,oneoftheadvantagesthattheAmer

58、icanswillhaveintermsofpowerinAsiaisallthosecountrieswantanAmericaninsurancepolicyagainsttheriseofChina.ItsasthoughMexicoandCanadawerehostileneighborstotheUnitedStates,whichtheyrenot.SothesesimpleprojectionsoftheGoldmanSachstypearenottellinguswhatweneedtoknowaboutpowertransition.HYPERLINK/talks/lang/

59、eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html另外值得一提的是HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html这个预测的衡量标准HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html是多么的单一。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html它看到是通过GDP，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye

60、_on_global_power_shifts.html衡量的经济实力。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html并不说明军事实力，HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html也不能说明软实力。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html它的衡量标准是单一的。HYPERLINK/talks/lang/eng/joseph_nye_on_global_