中国棉花市场分析报告

1、China Cotton Price, Import Policy And Consignment Trade TCEM 目 录 Cotton Net Gap change from Rigidity to FlexibilityThe Influence of RMB appreciation Domestic Supply & Demand DataSliding Import Duties Affect the Price Chinas Cotton Price in 2007 Unfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry Slid

2、ing Import Duties Affect the Price Sliding Import Duties Affect the Price China Cotton PriceDomestic Supply & Demand DataIn 2006 China enjoyed a cotton harvest with plantation 79.97mil. mu and 6.73 million tons output 。(Data from NBS - National Bureau of Statistics of China ). In 2007 cotton plantat

3、ion is 81.7 million mu which is 2.2% higher than that of in 2006. Output will be 7.07mil.tons in early September this year. China Cotton PriceCotton production in Main Areas China Cotton PriceCotton production in 2007Cotton production in 2007China Cotton PriceChina Cotton PriceChina cotton consumpti

4、on in the second quarter, the GDP growth in the first half of 2007 is 11.9%, and the annual GDP growth is expected to be 10%. For the past 4 years, the growth has been holding 9% and up.Chinas per capital consumption of fabric also shown a rapid upward. In the past three years, the increase is 15% p

5、er annum and will maintain the strong growth. China Cotton PriceChina cotton consumptionFor 2006-07 is 10.88 million tons, while for the 2007-08, the predicted cotton consumption will be 11.75 million tons. 。In 2006, Chinas yarn production is 17.22 million tons. By the end of July in 2007 , the yarn

6、 production is 17.33 million tons.China Cotton PriceUnfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry above 95% are non-stated-owned enterprises in textile industry, one of the most market-oriented industries in China.increase of domestic labor costs, the raise of raw material price and the decreas

7、e of the tax-return for textile export, the profits margin of the textile industry is extruded further.China Cotton Price Un-favorable Environment for China Textile Industrycreated a lot of trade surplus benefiting from the good quality and cheaper price, and now are suffering from tense trade frict

8、ions and technical barriers caused by this trade gap.Unfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry The Influence of RMB appreciationChinas cotton & textile industry chains in main three elements: raw cottonyarn & fabrics apparel and textile. Products are distributed to two markets: for export a

9、nd for domestic demand.Chinas textile industries export related ratio is up to 53%. Any block in the industry chain will affect the benefits and efficiency of the whole industry. The slowdown in exports will have a direct and strong effect on the market demand for cotton.Unfavorable Environment for

10、China Textile Industry The Influence of RMB appreciationUp till August 31, 2007, the cumulative RMB appreciation had reached 3.365%, exceeding 3.349%- the annual increases of 2006. Taking into consideration the one-time adjustment at the start of the reform in 2005, the appreciation is higher ,i. e

11、9.557%. the corresponding for 2006 is 5.525%.Unfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry The Influence of RMB appreciationRMB Appreciation will weaken the labor comparative advantage in textile industry which is the most critical points in China textile exports.The appreciation of RMB can fur

12、ther enhance the higher value-added products, accelerate industry re-construction. Unfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry Lower Tax Rebates for TextileExport tax rebates for textiles was lowered from 11% to 9%, for garments from 13% to 11% from July 1st ,2007.let market itself to select

13、textile enterprises, to optimize the allocation of the resources. Unfavorable Environment for China Textile Industry Lower Tax Rebates for TextileThere will be a remarkable change on Chinas export textiles orientation, expediting the export of high value-added products. The state aims to transform C

14、hina textiles industry from Huge to Strong.China Cotton Price Cotton Net Gap transit from Rigidity to Flexibility confronted with ever severe market situation. Some small-sized textile mills are shutdown, and the large and medium-sized are keeping operating rate around 70-80% due to the large invent

15、ory. Lower production and higher yarn counts comes out lower cotton consumption in volume. China domestic cotton supply gap will be affected more by the markets nationally and internationally China Cotton Price China national reserves sound stronger in the supervision During July 16th Aug. 22nd in 2

16、007, China had auctioned 300,000mts of commercial and reserve cottons. Since 2003, China had invested 10 more new warehouse giving 600,000mts. more spaces to national reserves. China remain 3.27mil.mts of cotton stock in 2006/07 and 2.996mil mts for 2007/08.China Cotton PriceChina Cotton Price Influ

17、enced by rapid micro-economy growth, higher of CPI , planting cost, other crops prices new crops price will be higher than that of 2006. But the price can not go higher than mills can accept as the commodity price finally needs to be confirmed by the consumers, and China textile industry are now com

18、pressed in and out. Import Policy for Cotton Principles for Sliding Duty Policy on Imported CottonUse proper preferential temporary tax to increase import. To make the imported cotton price similar to domestic cotton price by the adjustment on import duties.Import Policy for Cotton Sliding Duty Poli

19、cy on Imported Cotton On Jan. 1st , 2007 China amend the sliding duty ratio slightly to reveal the difference of the quality, reduce the risk of custom supervision. Ratio range from 6% - 40% compare with 5% - 40% in 2006 Duties are lower than last year for the price lower than usd 0.575/lb and highe

20、r than that for usd 0.66/lb. Import Policy for Cotton Amendment Sliding Duty Policy in 2007 Consignment Trade in ChinaGeneral Situation of ConsignmentTianjin Cotton Exchange Market and ECOM first start to sell the imported cotton on consignment terms in free trade zone in China at the end of 2003.In

21、ternational cotton dealers positively quickly suit themselves to the business custom in China. Consignment Trade in ChinaGeneral Situation of ConsignmentThe average volume in consignment is abt.400,000mts per month in 2007.And sales abt. 20% - 43% of China total imports according to different month.

22、And percentage is higher in mid of the year . Consignment Trade in ChinaThe Good part for the consignor raise the rate of profit take the preemptive opportunities. popularize imported cottonConsignment Trade in ChinaThe Good part for the Chinese millsHave prompt delivery Accelerate funds flow Reduce price risks Avoid quality uncertainty Tianjin Cotton Exchange MarketPhysical market for imported cotton in China TCEM aims to serve market participants in China and abroad alike by taking advantages of the geographical p