电信、有线与卫星：频谱及5G概述

1、Telecom, Cable and SatelliteSpectrum & 5G OverviewNorth America Equity ResearchMarch 2019Conference Call DetailsThursday, March 7 10:00am ET / 15:00 UKDial-in Info:888-566-1930 (US); +1-517-623-4814 (Outside US); Passcode: TELECOMReplay Info:Replay through 3/14: 800-324-4587 (US); +1- 402-220-3854 (

2、outside US); Passcode: 30719 Replay available approximately one hour after the call ends.PODCAST available within 24 hrs: HYPERLINK /Research/Multimedia Click here to find on J.P. Morgan Markets or find on BLOOMBERG JPMR , Features - Multimedia - 3) U.S. Conference CallsTelecom Services, Cable, Sate

3、llite and Towers Philip Cusick, CFA AC(212) 622-1444 HYPERLINK mailto:philip.cusick philip.cusickJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCNote: We have corrected the disclosures starting on Slide 24.See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst

4、 disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor

5、in making their investment decision.Agenda J.P. Morgan Spectrum OverviewUpcoming Spectrum Auctions and Potential Dish OutcomesCarrier Wireless Spectrum SummaryUpdate on Carrier 5G Network PlansUPCOMING SPECTRUM AUCTIONSCurrent and upcoming auctions could total an estimated $18-30b in 2019-202028 GHz

6、 mmWave ended January 24th with proceeds of $703m or $0.011/MHz-popAuction 102 (24 GHz) expected to raise $4b across 700 MHz of largely fallow spectrum ($0.02/MHz-pop)C-Band clarity should emerge in 2019 with our base case estimate $15b ($0.25/MHz-pop) on 180 MHz2H19/1H20 mmWave auction for 37, 39,

7、and 47 GHz bands estimated to clear at $8b ($0.01/MHz-pop)With HYPERLINK /document/fcc-acts-increase-investment-and-deployment-35-ghz-band-0 rules finalized we look for a CBRS auction sometime in 2020, and estimate $3b in proceedsAuction 101 (28 GHz) ended January 24th for 850 MHz (2 x 425 MHz) on a

8、 county basisCleared at $703m ($0.011/MHz-pop) vs our estimate of $750m ($0.012/MHz-pop)Just 24% of 28 GHz band was auctioned with Verizon already holding more than half nationwide and 76% within top 50 markets.Most licenses were outside of the top 50 so we expected a rather quick auction at low pri

9、cesQualified bidders for the 28 GHz band include AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, US Cellular, and Dish. Sprint and MSOs did not register for the auction. Frontier and Windstream also registered for the auction.Auction 102 (24 GHz) to HYPERLINK /auction/102 begin March 14th700 MHz of fallow spectrum should

10、command significant bidding we estimate $0.02/MHz-pop or $4b of proceeds totalFCC will auction the 700 MHz of spectrum as seven 100 MHz blocks on a PEA basisQualified bidders for the 24 GHz auction include AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Sprint, US Cellular, and Dish. Frontier and Windstream also registere

11、d for the 24 GHz auction. Cable did not register for the 24 GHz auction either.Estimated Auction Spend Through 202128 GHz24 GHzCBRSC-Band37 GHz39 GHz47 GHzTotalMHz-pops (billions)62.1218.322.858.5325.0135.7325.01,147.3Estimated $/MHz-pop$0.01$0.02$0.15$0.25$0.01$0.01$0.01Estimated Value (millions)$7

12、03$4,366$3,431$14,632$3,250$1,357$3,250$30,988Recently at Mobile World Congress, Chairman Pai reiterated his intentions to hold a HYPERLINK /news-events/blog/2018/07/11/coming-home single auction across the 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz bands in late 2019 which we view as the earliest possible timing a

13、nd somewhat optimistic.Auction rules for the 37, 39, and 47 GHz bands finalized.2.4 GHz of spectrum expected to be auctioned across these bands in late 2019We estimate that 31% of 39 GHz airwaves are unowned nationwide (40%/27% held by Verizon and AT&T, respectively), while the 37 and 47 GHz bands a

14、re largely fallowWe ascribe a $0.01/MHz-pop value ($8b total) for these bands vs $0.01 in the 28 GHz band and $0.02/MHz-pop in the 24 GHz band given the greater availability, higher frequencies, and less developed ecosystem of testing in these bandsThe 2.4 GHz of airwaves will all be licensed as 100

15、 MHz blocks37 GHz band provides a “greenfield” opportunity for carriersCurrently there are a limited number of existing Federal users in the 37 GHz band. This coupled with the adjacency to the 39 GHz band and consistent band plan allows for large, contiguous spectrum holdingsEstimated mmWave Auction

16、 ProceedsmmWave BandsAvailable MHz-pops (millions)mmWave Acquisitions ($/MHz-pop)24 GHz218,29728 GHz62,88037 GHz325,00039 GHz135,66147 GHz325,000FiberTower ($/MHz-pop)$0.002$0.002$0.002$0.002$0.002NextLink Wireless ($/MHz-pop)$0.003$0.003$0.003$0.003$0.003Straight Path ($/MHz-pop)$0.014$0.014$0.014$

17、0.014$0.014Minimum Opening Bids$0.001$0.001JPM Estimate$0.020$0.011$0.010$0.010$0.010Clearing Price$0.011Implied Auction Proceeds (millions)FiberTower$487$140$726$303$726NextLink Wireless$617$178$918$383$918Straight Path$3,052$879$4,543$1,897$4,543Minimum Opening Bids$294$41JPM Estimate$4,366$712$3,

18、250$1,357$3,250Clearing Price$703Value the 180 MHz proposed by the CBA at $15b.We use $0.25/MHz-pop vs current estimate of $0.50 for Sprints 2.5 GHz spectrum which accounts for the higher frequency of the band as well as time to market (unlikely use before 2021).Estimate approximately $1.75b of move

19、 costs related to head ends, base station filters, etc. There are 25k ground stations.Base case assumptions for C-Band spectrum monetization180 MHz could be auctioned in late 2019/early 2020 with the spectrum becoming usable in the 2021-2023 timeframeCould see 300 MHz over time if there is enough de

20、mand from bidders to incent more satellite investmentBase case an order from the FCC by mid-2019 followed by a private auction in the second half of 2019 or early 2020Potential auction structure and bidders are the next big question depends on demand and who runs the auction.FCC seems to have no int

21、erest in controlling the auction and appears more motivated to expedite time to market. We assume the auction is run by the CBA and structure will likely depend on what demand looks like at the timeMain opposition to current CBAs C-Band proposal.Google and Charter would like an FCC-led auction in or

22、der to maximize transparency rather than allow secondary-market transactionsT-Mobile has proposed an incentive auction for the C-Band as well as differing amounts of spectrum by PEA.Is T-Mobile trying to delay the process beyond the Sprint decision?Is cable trying to delay C-Band coming to market in

23、 order to protect its broadband service from 5G wireless competiton?Google and Microsoft would like the FCC to allow P2MP which the companies would use to offer fixed wireless ISP service HYPERLINK /tech-and-telecom-law/lawmakers-leery-of-satellite-companies-5g-airwaves-plan-1 Bloomberg recently rep

24、orted that several Congressmen and Senators may introduce legislation to slow or block the CBAs proposalWe see supply and demand as a bigger driver of price than international prices.Verizon is currently the only motivated bidder, clearly wants to move fastAT&T is balance sheet constrainedT-Mobile c

25、ould get 200 MHz from SprintCable doesnt seem committed enough to wireless to spend $billions on spectrumEstimated C-Band Spectrum ValuationSummary Recent Mid-band Auctions GloballyEstimated $/MHz-popCountryDateMHzPrice ($)POPs$/MHz-pop100120$1,625$1,950$3,250$3,900$4,875$5,850$6,500$7,800$8,125$9,7

26、50$9,750$11,700FinlandOct-18390885.5$0.04140160180$2,275$2,600$2,925$4,550$5,200$5,850$6,825$7,800$8,775$9,100$10,400$11,700$11,375$13,000$14,625$13,650$15,600$17,550ItalySpainOct-18Jul-182002004,9271,59960.646.6$0.41$0.17200$3,250$6,500$9,750$13,000$16,250$19,500South KoreaJun-182803,20251.3$0.2222

27、0$3,575$7,150$10,725$14,300$17,875$21,450U.K.Apr-181501,44966.3$0.15240260280300$3,900$7,800$11,700$15,600$19,500$23,400IrelandMay-17350894.8$0.05$4,225$8,450$12,675$16,900$21,125$25,3506$4,550$9,100$13,650$18,200$22,750$27,300$4,875$9,750$14,625$19,500$24,375$29,250$0.05$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30Aus

28、traliaDec-1812561324.6$0.20C-Band Spectrum (MHz)Source (all): Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.Estimate move/re-banding costs of $1.75b for the C-Band Alliance (CBA) or$12.9b in proceeds to the satellite consortium.C-Band Monetization AssumptionsIntelsat and SES will require HYPERLINK /file

29、/12191201606642/CBA%20-%20Ex%20Parte%20re%20Satellite%20Procurement%2012-19-18.pdf 8 new satellites, which we estimate could InputsAssumptionscost $100-125m apiece, in order to compensate for the 200 MHz lost.Estimated $/MHz-pop$0.25Estimated move costs will cover relocation of ground stations (head

30、-Proposed C-Band Spectrum (MHz)180ends) away from major metro areas as well as new filters on otherUS Population (millions)325ground stations.Estimated C-Band Value, gross (millions)$14,625Impact on IntelsatEstimated Moving Costs (millions)$1,750We estimate Intelsats transponder share at 45% across

31、the USEstimated C-Band Value, net (millions)$12,875(equivalent to SES)Intelsat % Share of C-Band (45%)$5,794Accordingly, we assume that Intelsat will garner $5.8b of proceeds much of which will be deployed to paying down its debt load2019 Intelsat Shares Outstanding (millions) Private C-Band Value p

32、er Share (dollars)152$38We believe Intelsat will look to de-lever from an estimated 9x to 5-6x (or lower) net debt to EBITDA in order to lift covenant restrictionsOn a per share basis, we estimate $34/share in C-Band value based on the above assumption (sensitivity table below)However, we estimate I

33、ntelsat is also massively over-levered, and target leverage of 4-5x.Estimated SES (covered by JPM Analyst Akhil Dattani) proceedsSES has a comparable level of transponder share to Intelsat (45%) and therefore similar net proceedsNet-net estimate 9/share in proceeds for SES based on the above assumpt

34、ionsPrivate to public discount10%Public C-Band Value per Share (dollars)$34Core Satellite Value per Share (dollars)-$8Intelsat Price Taget (dollars)$27Estimated C-Band Proceeds/share for Intelsat (post move costs)Estimated Moving Costs$0.05$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30$0.35$0.40$0.45$0.50$750$6$14$21$29

35、$37$45$53$60$68$76$1,000$5$13$21$29$36$44$52$60$68$75$1,250$4$12$20$28$36$44$51$59$67$75$1,500$4$12$19$27$35$43$51$58$66$74$1,750$3$11$19$27$34$42$50$58$66$73$2,000$2$10$18$26$34$42$49$57$65$73Estimated $/MHz-popBroad support for CBRS spectrum with auction expected in 2020.Assume $0.15/MHz-pop value

36、 for the CBRS spectrum band or $3b total across 70 MHz nationwideNearly all US carriers have expressed interest in the 3.5 GHz band and are in the process of conducting field testsAs MSOs delve further into wireless, cable operators could use CBRS to offload MVNO traffic onto an underlying small cel

37、l infrastructure as Charter outlined in its ex-parte filings with the FCCFixed wireless operators and enterprise LTE applications are also potential use cases for the PAL and GAA portionsCBRS has certain limitations:Spectrum will be licensed on a county basis which is more ideal than census tracts,

38、but smaller than other bandsIncumbents US Military will have priority even in licensed bandsExclusion zones to protect incumbent users primarily along the US coasts40 MHz cap per bidder in each geographyOutdoor to In-building propagation seems limited vs 2-2.5 GHz bands. This seems ok for cable, but

39、 not a band that telcos want to rely on.Tier Overview:Incumbent AccessPriority Access (PALs)General Authorized Access (GAA)Estimated CBRS Spectrum Analysis3550 MHz3650 MHz3700 MHzFederalIncumbent Uses Priority AccessGeneral Authorized AccessIncumbent Uses General Authorized AccessFSS/C-BandPALPALPAL

40、PALPALPALPALWIRELESS SPECTRUM SUMMARY9In the US there is roughly 710 MHz of spectrum licensed and ready for use with mobile wireless technologies. Within that, weSpectrum Band $/MHz-pop Estimates Based on Recent AuctionsDiscount/Premium from original auction weighted average priceOriginal Auction Co

41、mpsDiscount/PremiumAvg. $/MHz-Popestimate the majority is allocated to 4G LTE technology, while some is still allocated to 3G CDMA and HSPA to support older devices and international roaming.We estimate that 170 MHz currently lies fallow comprised of 95 MHz at Dish (40 MHz of AWS-4, 20 MHz of AWS-3,

42、 10 MHz of PCS H-Block, 19 MHz of 600 MHz Broadcast spectrum, and 6 MHz of 700 MHz) and as much as 70 MHz of 600 spectrum across carriers which are still clearing that spectrum (though T-Mobile has deployed the band aggressively in some areas this year), but will be deployed in the next few yearsBan

43、dAuctionTop 100RestTop 100RestTop 100RestAll700MHz700 MHz$1.69$0.746%35%$1.79$1.00$1.50700MHz E-Block700 MHz$1.69$0.740%0%$1.69$0.74$1.32700MHz FirstNet700 MHz$1.69$0.743%0%$1.74$0.74$1.35600MHz Broadcast600 MHz$1.19$0.6554%54%$1.83$1.00$1.50Cellular700 MHz$1.69$0.746%35%$1.79$1.00$1.50AWSAWS-3 (pai

44、red)$3.35$1.60-30%-35%$2.34$1.04$1.83AWS-3AWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-30%-35%$2.34$1.04$1.83Unpaired AWS-3AWS-3 (unpaired)$0.51$0.270%0%$0.51$0.27$0.42PCSAWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-30%-35%$2.34$1.04$1.83PCS H-BlockPCS-50%-50%$1.17$0.52$0.91DISH AWS-4AWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-30%-35%$2.34$1.04$1.83Unpaired

45、 AWS/L2AWS-3 (unpaired)$0.51$0.270%0%$0.51$0.27$0.42WCSAWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-50%-50%$1.67$0.80$1.332.5 GHzAWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-78%-90%$0.74$0.16$0.50C-BandAWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-90%-92%$0.33$0.12$0.25CBRSAWS-3 (paired)$3.35$1.60-95%-93%$0.17$0.12$0.1528 GHzNANANANANA$0.02$0.02$0.0239 GHzNAN

46、ANANANA$0.01$0.01$0.0124 GHzNANANANANA$0.01$0.01$0.0137 GHzNANANANANA$0.01$0.01$0.0147 GHzNANANANANA$0.01$0.01$0.01Estimated Spectrum Value NationwideCommon Band NameFrequencyBandwidth (MHz)3G/4G/5GComments600 MHz600 MHz704G/5G2016-17 Auction. Mostly owned by T-Mobile and Dish Network700 MHz700 MHz5

47、24G2008 Auction. Mostly owned by AT&T, Verizon, DISH Network, T-Mobile, US Cellular700 MHz FirstNet700 MHz204GFirstNet awarded to AT&T in 2017Cellular800/850 MHz643G/4G50 MHz given to industry in the 80s. 14MHz owned by Sprint through Nextel allocated to LTE and CDMAPCS1900 MHz1403G/4G120 MHz auctio

48、ned in mid-90s + 10 MHz of G-Block spectrum owned by Sprint + 10 MHz owned by DishAWS1.7/2.1 GHz904G2006 Auction. T-Mobile and VZ own 30 MHz for 4G. T owns 20 MHz for 4GAWS-31.7/2.1 GHz654G/5G2014 AuctionAWS-42.0/2.2 GHz404G/5GOwned by DISH Network, rolling out 4G-based IOT but eventually 5GWCS2.3 G

49、Hz204G/5GOwned by AT&T2.5 GHz2.5/2.6 GHz1504G/5GOwned by Sprint, allocated to 4GCBRS3.55/3.7 GHz1505GAuction expected in 2020C-Band3.7/3.9 GHz1805GAuction expected in 2019/2020 as FCC concludes NPRM in coming months24 GHz24.25/24.75 GHz7005GAuction for fallow band expected immediately after 28 GHz (

50、Auction 101) conclusion28 GHz27.5/28.35 GHz8505G75% currently held today; remaining 25% currently being auctioned (Auction 101)37 GHz37.6/38.6 GHz10005GAuction expected in 2H19 for fallow band39 GHz38.6/40.0 GHz14005GAuction expected in 2H19 for remaining 31% unowned today47 GHz47.2/48.2 GHz10005GAu

51、ction expected in 2H19 for fallow bandTotal Spectrum Under Use711Total Spectrum with Visibility for Use5991Low-band (1GHz) Spectrum OwnershipMid-band (1.7-2.5 GHz) Spectrum OwnershipDish 11%Other 10%AT&T 32%US Cellular 1%Dish 15%Other 0%AT&T 19%US Cellular 2%Sprint 6%Verizon 13%T-Mobile 18%Verizon 2

52、1%Sprint 38%T-Mobile 14%Total Spectrum Ownership (excluding mmWave)mmWave Spectrum OwnershipTotal Spectrum Ownership (including mmWave)OtherUS CellularDishOtherAT&TUS CellularDishOtherAT&TUS Cellular 1%Dish3%14%AT&T 23%T-Mobile 20%Sprint0%2%0%1%14%0%5%Sprint7%2%17%Sprint 28%Verizon 16%T-Mobile 19%T-

53、Mobile 15%Verizon 63%Verizon 50%AT&Ts spectrum worth an estimated $88b.We estimate that AT&Ts 164 MHz of 6 GHz (traditional) mobility spectrum portfolio is worth $87b more than any other carrier. This equates to $1.66/MHz-pop. AT&T valued its spectrum at $96b on its balance sheet in 4Q18 which is 9%

54、 above our estimated value.AT&T has an average of 453 MHz of spectrum nationwide including the 39 GHz band which we value at $927m (or$0.01/MHz-pop). This brings AT&Ts total portfolio value to $88b ($0.61/MHz-pop).$72b estimated value for Verizons spectrum.We estimate that Verizons 112 MHz (excludin

55、g mmWave) of nationwide spectrum is worth $66b second only to AT&T. We calculate an average $1.82/MHz-pop for Verizons low and mid-band holdings.Including its mmWave spectrum (1.24 GHz on average nationwide), which we value at $6b, we estimate Verizons1.35 GHz of total nationwide spectrum at $72b or

56、 $0.16/MHz-pop. This compares to an $94b carrying value on Verizons balance sheet 31% above our estimated value.Avg. Spectrum Holding Nationwide (MHz)Average Spectrum Holdings NationwideUnpaired700 MHzAWS and600 MHz700 MHz(First Net)CellularPCSAWSAWS3AWS-3WCS2.5 GHz28 GHz39 GHzTotal 6 GHzTotal(weigh

57、ted(weighted avg)avg)AT&T-282023391420-20289Verizon-2225213312-679562T-Mobile3010027383-37813Sprint-14360-1502US Cellular81311547-1644531121,3541084992002024848DISH Network195-10401013-35Comcast10961311010Spectrum with visibility to use705220641401305015201501,1501,4007113,261Spectrum Value ($ in 00

58、0s)Estimated Spectrum Value Nationwide600 MHz700 MHz700 MHz(First Net)CellularPCSAWSAWS3UnpairedAWS and AWS-3WCS2.5 GHz28 GHz39 GHzTotal 6 GHzTotal(6 GHz +mmWave)AT&T-14,667,5828,653,03311,618,81123,529,9097,975,88312,478,255-8,550,659-927,18287,474,13188,401,313Verizon-10,876,52012,033,85814,108,54

59、421,239,4427,286,813-4,363,7761,805,95165,545,17771,714,905T-Mobile12,965,1045,087,3137,48016,714,78324,338,5321,435,325-2,429,29841,23060,548,53763,019,065Sprint-6,862,98122,168,08620,006-25,385,28912,110-54,436,36254,448,473US Cellular326,767738,147680,199377,605254,606434,015-2,811,3372,811,337Di

60、sh Network10,576,9362,136,6273,205,44825,643,5866,177,9811,833,457227,606-49,574,03449,801,640Comcast3,084,611-3,084,6113,084,611Value of all visible spectrum26,953,41833,506,1898,653,03331,203,32880,104,37579,472,05427,812,3896,877,5748,550,65925,385,2897,032,7902,774,364328,518,307338,325,461Sprin