东盟股市策略：2020年前瞻

1、Asia Pacific Equity Research25 November 2019Correction (See page 78 for details)ASEAN Equity StrategyYear Ahead 2020Southeast Asia Equity Strategy Rajiv Batra AC(65) 6882-8151 HYPERLINK mailto:rajiv.j.batra rajiv.j.batraBloomberg JPMA BATRA J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedHoy Kit Mak

2、 AC(60-3) 2718-0713 HYPERLINK mailto:hoykit.mak hoykit.makBloomberg JPMA MAK JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)Jeanette Yutan AC(63-2) 8878-1188 HYPERLINK mailto:jeanette.g.yutan jeanette.g.yutanBloomberg JPMA YUTAN J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.Henry Wibowo AC(622-1) 5291

3、8526 HYPERLINK mailto:henry.wibowo henry.wibowoPT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia Head of ASEAN Research Ajay Mirchandani AC(65) 6882-2419 HYPERLINK mailto:ajay.mirchandani ajay.m HYPERLINK mailto:irchandani irchandaniBloomberg JPMA MIRCHANDANI J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedEM Equi

4、ty StrategistPedro Martins Junior, CFA AC(55-11) 4950-4121 HYPERLINK mailto:pedro.x.martins pedro.x.martins Bloomberg JPMA MARTINS Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.Jainik Mody, CFA(44 20) 3493-0443 HYPERLINK mailto:jainik.mody jainik.modyJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAnindita Gandhi(91-22) 6157-3248 HYPERLINK mail

5、to:anindita.gandhi anindita.gandhiJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedSonia Tewani(91-22) 6157 3803 HYPERLINK mailto:sonia.tewani sonia.tewaniJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 78 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks

6、 to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HY

7、PERLINK / 2020 Year of two halvesAs we write this report, markets are attempting to price in the fact that trade talks between the US and China have stalled and that an initial deal might not be reached until sometime next year. The early-October truce had boosted risk assets and raised the possibil

8、ity of an improvement in business sentiment as well as some rebound in global trade and industrial activity. Our current allocation in Southeast Asia reflects the tactical reality of today.We remain optimistic on ASEAN equities from here. The underperformance of ASEAN is likely to continue versus EM

9、 Asia, in our view, with markets neither being exposed to the value trade nor a big beneficiary of US- China trade reconciliation. At the same time, we believe that high beta and a few value sectors in ASEAN could experience near-term multiple expansion.Consensus forecasts ASEAN growth to pick up fr

10、om 1.0% in 2019 to 7.1%/7.4% in 2020/21 helped by pro-growth monetary/fiscal policies and a recovery in external demand from a likely pickup in global manufacturing. The delta growth in ASEAN is lesser than EM or APxJ as the beneficiaries of a manufacturing pick-up lie mainly in the north of EM Asia

11、. The combination of a marginal re-rating (led by Singapore and Indonesia) with higher single-digit EPS growth means MSCI ASEAN looks set to deliver a 12% return in 2020E.Key themes for 2020Indonesia reform drive unlock the growth potential (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 6)Off-index exposure E-commerc

12、e (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 7) and Vietnam (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 54).Beneficiaries of manufacturing relocation Tech, industrial estates and logistics (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 8)Show me the money Zero short rates and low/negative bond yields will force investors to consider dividend-pa

13、ying equities.Asset allocation for 2020We upgrade Singapore from Neutral to OW driven by: (1) Macro data showing early signs of recovery; (2) inexpensive valuation; (3) light investor positioning; and(4) global tailwinds and policy support optionality to domestic growth. We execute our upgrade via a

14、dding weight in Developers. For more see page HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 12.OW Indonesia Our top high-beta play in the region is a key beneficiary of eroding global geopolitical risks.The country offers political stability and structural reforms starting with Omnibus law which should drive FDI and trans

15、form Indonesia into a manufacturing hub with monetary easing backed by a stable Rupiah.OW Vietnam - Amid the global economic slowdown, Vietnam offers strong growth underpinned by robust domestic consumption and resilient exports activity. Four core fundamental developments support our stance: (1) Re

16、silient growth; (2) Low and stable inflation; (3) Strong FDI flows and trade activities; and (4) Key reforms are under way to support further growth and investment inflows.Neutral Philippines Supportive monetary and fiscal policies reinforce a positive view. However, we see potential downside risks

17、to earnings and GDP. Seasonal weather issues could limit the government capex recovery in 2H19. Valuations are undemanding, while investor positioning is light.Neutral Thailand Not a mainstay during a risk-on value rally, Thailand offers limited upside. Slowing domestic demand, already dampened by t

18、he investment slowdown, will partly offset the fiscal support to household incomes. The prospect of a large-scale fiscal stimulus program is low, and progress on the governments infrastructure spending, the strength of the tourism industry, and monetary policy easing are important drivers for the Th

19、ai stock market.UW Malaysia Policy action is unclear, while growth will remain a challenge going forward. Lack of external visibility and expensive valuations are weighing on the market. Two turning points that could rekindle foreign interest, in our view, are a near-term uplift in exports and re-ki

20、ndled China relations and tourism.Table 1: ASEAN Core MetricsRecoMacroPolicyValuationEarningsPositioningSingaporeOWIndonesiaOWVietnamOWPhilippinesNThailandNMalaysiaUWSource: J.P. Morgan ASEAN Strategy teamTable 2: ASEAN Potential MSCI Index targets for bull, base and bear caseRegion/ CountryLastPric

21、eBase CaseTargetUpsideBull caseTargetUpsideBear caseTargetUpsideIndexLocal index TargetBase case Bull case Bear caseIndonesia70818,350189,110296,390(10)JCI725078805530Singapore3684251545022340(8)STI370039003000Philippines13231,500131,670261,200(9)PCOMP880098007100Thailand560600765016550(2)SET1700185

22、01550Malaysia547565360010530(3)KLCI165017501550Vietnam (off index)812940161,03027740(9)VNINDEX11401250890Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. 21 November 2019. Targets in local currency.Table 3: ASEAN asset allocation heatmapID ConsDiscretionarySG Com SvsMYIndustrialsMY FinancialsPH FinancialsT

23、H EnergyTH FinancialsIDConsumer StaplesID FinancialsSGMY UtilitiesSG Real EstatePHIndustrialsFinancialsSG IndustrialsTH Com SvsTHConsumerStaplesID Com SvsMY Consumer StaplesPHReal EstateTHMaterialsMY EnergyID OthersMYPH Com SvsTHIndustrialsTH CDID MaterialsSGSG C StaplesMY MaterialsCom SvsPH Uti + C

24、DTH HCID EnergyID HCCons DiscSG OthersMY CDMY HCPH CSTH UtilitiesTH Real EstateSource: MSCI, DataStream, J.P. Morgan estimates.Table 4: Consensus 2020 EPS growth trendEMAPxJASEANIndonesiaSingaporePhilippinesThailandMalaysiaVietnamAggregateUptrendUptrendUptrendUptrendSlowdownSlowdownRecoveryRecoveryU

25、ptrendCons DiscSlowdownSlowdownRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoverySlowdown Contraction Cons StaplesSlowdownUptrendUptrendUptrendRecoverySlowdownSlowdownRecoveryRecoveryEnergyRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoverySlowdownRecoveryFinancialsSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownUptrendSlowdownSlowdownUptrendRecoveryU

26、ptrendHealthcareUptrendUptrendUptrendUptrendSlowdownRecoveryIndustrialsUptrendUptrendUptrendRecoveryUptrendSlowdownSlowdownRecovery SlowdownITRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryMaterialsRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryRecoveryReal EstateSlowdownSlowdownSlowdownContractionSlowdownSlowdownRecover

27、yRecoveryUptrendCommunication svsUptrendUptrendUptrendSlowdownRecoveryContractionSlowdownSlowdownUtilitiesSlowdownUptrendUptrendRecoveryRecoveryRecoverySlowdownSlowdownSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Data as of 21 November 2019. *Codes refer to: a) 2020 growth is 0 - Contraction; b) 2019 growth0 Rec

28、overy; c) Both 2019 and 2010 growth 0, but 2020 growth 0, but 2020 growth 2019 growth UptrendFigure 1: FDI InflowsFigure 2: ASEAN countries performance pre & post US Presidential electionSingaporeIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaPhilippines1301251201151101051009590-12M-9M-6M-3M0+3M+6M+9M+12MSource: UNCTAD,

29、J.P. MorganSource: MSCI, J.P. Morgan. Note: Chart shows average performance 12 months pre and post US presidential elections from 1992. We have excluded 2008, when markets were largely impacted by global financial turmoil.Stocks for the Year of the RatTable 5: Top picks for ASEANPriceJPMMkt capP/E(x

30、)EPSDiv.YldROESector(21-Nov-19)CodeRating(US$B)19E20E19E20E20E20EIndonesiaBank Central Asia (BCA)Financials31500BBCA IJOW55.126.823.4117713452.118.7PT Bank Mandiri Tbk.Financials7175BMRI IJOW23.413.010.35536944.817.3PT Telekomunikasi IndonesiaComm Svs.4020TLKM IJOW28.517.915.32252634.127.4Ciputra De

31、velopmentReal Estate1050CTRA IJOW1.423.726.044401.34.9Jasa MargaIndustrials5150JSMR IJOW2.623.641.32181250.24.8Semen IndonesiaMaterials12450SMGR IJOW5.235.820.93485951.010.3SingaporeCapitaLandReal Estate3.62CAPL SPOW5.7Mapletree Industrial TrustReal Estate2.50MINT SPOW4.120.720.50

32、.United Overseas Bank (UOB)Financials26.06UOB SPN32.210.411.010.4Sea LtdComm Svs.37.22SE USOW17.2NMNM-3.3-1.8nanaYangzijiang Shipbuilding HoldingsIndustrials1.00YZJSGD SPOW9.3PhilippinesSM Prime HoldingsReal Estate39.00SMPH PMOW22.430.01.213.5Robinsons

33、Land CorpReal Estate25.65RLC PMOW2.714.91.48.4Metropolitan BankFinancials66.95MBT PMOW6.111.71.39.3Puregold Price ClubC. Staples40.00PGOLD PMOW2.316.61.311.3Internationnt. Cont Terminal SvsIndustrials122.00ICT PMOW4.824.02.714.4ThailandAirports of ThailandIndu

34、strials80.00AOT TBN38.044.61.417.3Tisco Financial Group PCLFinancials97.50TISCO TBOW2.610.07.718.8CP All PclC. Staples75.50CPALL TBOW22.428.31.627.7Advanced Info ServicesComm Svs.220.00ADVANC TBOW21.720.117.910.912.33.948.5Thai Oil Public CompanyEnergy67.00TOP TBOW4.613

35、.59.75.06.94.710.8MalaysiaMISC BerhadIndustrials8.33MISC MKOW8.917.919.00.470.443.85.4Sime Darby PlantationC. Staples5.11SDPL MKOW8.5RHB Bank BhdFinancials5.70RHBBANK MKOW0.620.627.910.0Dialog Group BhdEnergy3.43DLG MKOW4.6KLCCP Stapled GroupReal

36、 Estate8.00KLCCSS MKOW3.580.824.95.5VietnamAsia Commercial BankFinancials24000.00ACB VNOW3457.123793.962.220.6TechcombankFinancials23500.00TCB VNOW2734.463175.530.016.6Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg.Table 6: Least preferred forASEANPriceJPMMkt capP/E(x)EPSDiv.YldROESector

37、(21-Nov-19)CodeRating(US$B)19E20E19E20E20E20EIndonesiaAdaro EnergyEnergy1310ADRO IJUW3.010.015.27.9Matahari Department StoreC. Discretionary3550LPPF IJUW5274667.468.0United TractorsEnergy22100UNTR IJUW6.07.68.9289324964.015.1SingaporeGenting SingaporeC. Discretionary0.94GENS SPUW8.

38、417.818.50.050.053.77.6Hutchison Port Holdings TrustIndustrials0.15HPHT SPUW1.420.021.60.060.069.81.9CapitaLand Commercial TrustReal Estate1.97CCT SPUW5.624.525.10.080.084.54.3PhilippinesMegaworld CorpReal Estate4.60MEG PMUW0.490.521.79.6Robinsons Retail HoldingsC. Staples76.30RRHI PMUW2.32

39、6.321.12.883.591.07.5ThailandBerli Jucker PCLC. Staples45.75BJC TBUW6.026.925.41.711.821.76.2True Corporation PCLComm Svs.4.12TRUE TBN4.737.959.00.110.070.01.7MalaysiaPetronas Chemicals GroupMaterials7.01PCHEM MKUW13.617.716.50.400.433.210.5Telekom MalaysiaComm Svs.3.70T MKUW3.417.641.86.

40、3Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 2020 Year of two halves2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Stocks for the Year of the Rat4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Key themes for 20206 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Inflection Led Rotation9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Why tactical, not structural?10

41、HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Upgrade Singapore to Overweight12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Indonesia: A Dawn of New Era14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Singapore: Green shoots are starting to appear23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Thailand: Frowns in the Land of Smiles33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Philippines: Risks to GDP a

42、nd earnings43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Malaysia: Still watching the turn49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Vietnam: Riding the growth wave54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Valuation Deep Dive57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Earnings bell growth outlook and trend60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Flows & Positioning63 HYPERLINK l

43、 _bookmark19 Quant-Strategy65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 2020 economic outlook70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 GDP and inflation forecasts73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 FX and commodity forecasts76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Interest rate forecasts77Table 7: J.P. Morgan ASEAN Equity Strategy Key Country CallsSector

44、RecJ. P. Morgan Equity Strategy ViewIndonesiaSingaporeOWOWPrudent macro policies. Lower inflation and government spending should support domestic demandMacro data showing early signs of recovery; inexpensive valuation; policy support optionalityVietnam (off index)OWGrowth underpinned by robust domes

45、tic consumption and resilient export activities; beneficiary of supply chain shiftPhilippinesThailandNNMacro backdrop remains supportive of elevated GDP growth. Current account deficit position puts weakening pressure on the currencyOngoing earnings disappointment, uneasy market valuation and potent

46、ial decline in domestic demand vs government fiscal expansionMalaysiaUWGovernments limited fiscal headroom, private investment likely not enough to offset government capex cutsSource: J.P. MorganKey themes for 2020Indonesia reform drive unlock the growth potentialInternet Economy of ASEANBeneficiari

47、es of manufacturing relocation Tech, industrial estates and logisticsIndonesia reform drive unlock the growth potential Among his major second-term initiatives, President Jokowi aims to simplify regulations by passing two Omnibus laws related to Job Creation and Empowermentof SME. Jokowis inaugurati

48、on address pledged that dozens of laws that hamper both job creation and the development of SME will be revised.Multiple overlap of regulations, at both central and regional government levels, has been one of the biggest bottlenecks holding back foreign investment into Indonesia, in our assessment.

49、According to Indonesia Center for Law and Policy Study (PSHK), as at October 2019, Indonesia had 7,621 Ministerial regulations, 765 Presidential regulations, 452 Government regulations, and 107 laws. The Government issued 1,324 regulations over the period of 2014-2018. Cabinet continuity in Law & Hu

50、man Rights Minister Yasona Laoly and Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, both second-term ministers in Jokowis newly formed cabinet in charge of executing the Omnibus laws, could help speed up execution.Note that the first time Omnibus law was mentioned by the Government, in September

51、 2019, was one month before Jokowi was inaugurated for his second-term presidency. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani stated plans at the time to issue one Omnibus law in the taxation sector to amend the General Taxation Law, Income Tax Law, and Value Added Tax Law. This is targeted at boosting foreign in

52、vestment into Indonesia and also increasing tax collection penetration domestically.We conclude that there are three key Omnibus laws in focusEmployment Creation Act (Labor Reform, Negative list revision),SME Empowerment Act (Deregulation),Taxation Reform.We are hopeful that the draft bill can be re

53、viewed by the parliament in early 2020, and be passed into law in the same year. We would like to highlight the biggest difference this time in passing a bill is a much stronger Government coalition compared to previous parliaments. President Jokowi is currently backed by 74% of parliament, much str

54、onger than a mere 37% back in 2014. We expect parliament proceedings to approve the bill into a law will be much faster and smoother this time a keystone of our optimistic view on Indonesian equities.Based on our sensitivity analysis, a corporate tax rate reduction from current 25% to 20% would boos

55、t EPS growth by +7%. For listed companies who meet certain criteria, tax rate can fall further to 17%, translating to additional EPS growth of +11%.Table 8: High conviction picks in Indonesia TickerNameRecoPriceTPUpside BBCA IJBank Central AsiaOW315253500011%BMRI IJBank MandiriOW7075790012%TLKM IJTe

56、lekomunikasi IndonesiaOW4050485020%EXCL IJXL AxiataOW3540395012%CTRA IJCiputra DevelopmentOW1040150044%SMRA IJSummarecon AgungOW1040160054%JSMR IJJasa MargaOW5100650027%SMGR IJSemen IndonesiaOW122501700039%INDF IJIndofood Sukses MakmurOW792585007% MAPI IJMitra AdiperkasaOW1035140035% Source: J.P. Mo

57、rgan estimates, Bloomberg.22 November 2019Table 9: Sensitivity Analysis Tax Rate CutFY20E EPS (Rp / sh)482 Implied pre-tax profit 25%643 Tax RateEPS assuming tax rateUpside/downside 24%4881%23%4953%22%5014%21%5085%20%5147%19%5218%18%5279%17%53311%25%482Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.Figure 3: Retrenc

58、hment fees (in weeks)8070605040302010Mauritius Sierra Leone Indonesia Sri Lanka Ghana Zambia MozambiqueEcuador Thailand Lao PDR BangladeshEgypt Vietnam ArgentinaChile China Israel Korea Philippines Turkey Pakistan Mexico Myanmar Malaysia0Source: World Bank, J.P. MorganFigure 4: Skilled labor is impo

59、rtantSource: OECD, World Bank, J.P. Morgan. PISA score is simple avg math, reading, and scienceInternet Economy of ASEANFigure 6: Internet economy GMV as % of GDPAccording to the Google and Temasek s e-Conomy SEA 2019 report, the internet economy has tripled over the last four years to $100bn in 201

60、9. Google and Temasek project the internet economy in SE Asia to be $300 billion by 2025.Indonesias internet economy is one of the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia with over USD40bn (c4% of GDP) of estimated market size in 2019 (Google and Temasek s e-Conomy SEA 2019 report). It is largely