咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版课件

1、咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版咨询解决问题的方法与假设34英文版Goals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving ” Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teamsPractice the suggested process on a real-life example 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedGoals of t

2、his moduleLay out a Strategy is about thriving in a changing world“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.” 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedStrategy is about thriving in which is

3、 all about “decision making” “Strategy is about making decisions”The best strategy “makers” are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and simple good luckBased on often imperfect information they make decisions and then drive implementation 2004 Capgemin

4、i - All rights reserved which is all about “decisionThere are two basic approaches to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere” approachThe structured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find somethin

5、g usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypotheses 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedThere are two basic approachesDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAn

6、alyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the

7、analysis 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedDefining the issue is the firsHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new th

8、oughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedHypothesis formation ensures

9、 tHypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . .A series of statements, not yet backe

10、d by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access n

11、ew business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Hypotheses are developed in thA hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impact

12、Think through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tel

13、l there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”A hypothesis should identify nThe Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement Define the ProblemStructure the ProblemDevelop a HypothesisExecute the Analysis Develop a Recomme

14、ndation Create the Communication Deliver CommunicationFollow Up with ClientCovered in current moduleCovered later in the week 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedThe Structured Problem SolvingThe Basics - Problem Solving Approach 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedThe Basics - Problem Solving ADEFI

15、NE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questionsIs there a problem or opportunity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.

16、 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Always ask: “Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?”Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define, structure and solve the clients

17、 problem 1.Ideas at any level in the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them2.Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary3.Ideas in each grouping must always be in a logical order:MainAssertionK

18、ey LineDeductively or inductively Trace course or time orderDivide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.)Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.) 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedSource: Barbara Minto, “The PLogical pyramids increase the

19、 effectiveness of problem solving, results delivery and communicationVertical structureHorizontal structureKey line / narrativebut help ensure thoroughanalysiswhile decreasingcomplexityand increasing the powerof presentations Logical pyramids have simple rulesThe effectiveness of our work depends he

20、avily on how compellingly we can argue that the solution we put forward serves the client bestThe reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactionsTo build succinct and compelling presentations of our work, we use logical pyramids

21、as the preferred communication style:Pyramids make information more memorable and meaningfulThey lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solveThey structure our solutions to these problems and make them more compellingSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.which will make your work/l

22、ife much easier to handle 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedLogical pyramids increase the Define and Structure the Problem 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedDefine and Structure the Probl“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” -AnonymousWhy problem definition matter

23、s 2004 Capgemini - All rights reserved“If you dont know where Why pIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not

24、 work? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedIn structuring a problem, breaMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you impose 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedMutually Exclusive and CompreDivideClarifyDiagnosticFrameworkCause EffectFrameworkStructu

25、ralFrameworkProblem StructureTo help you solve a problem, your structure must:Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve componentsBe a “MECE” description of the problem and its possible solutionsTrace CauseThere are three ways to structure a business problemSource: Barbara Minto, “Th

26、e Pyramid Principle”. 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedDivideClarifyDiagnosticFramewHeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress, TensionHypochondriaBumped, Bruised HeadAllergiesBad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, ColdBrain TumorWater on the BrainExample 1 disaggregate the problem into a diagnosti

27、c solution treeSCooPSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”. 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedHeadPhysicalMentalExternalInteStore is withinshopping radiusdo not know about the storeknow about the storenever visit the storeenter the storedo not buymake a purchasedo not come backmake repeat

28、purchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage, CIConversionCustomer ValueRoot CauseExample 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect frameworkHow can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedStore is withindo not know aboAccounttypePack sizeRE

29、PURCHASETarget market persuaded to repurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrand madeavailable?TRIALTarget market induced to try?AWARENESSTarget marketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyof useOccasionof useConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIf all lines

30、of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target market and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspending rateMediamixRegional weightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSales forcecoverageSales

31、forcedirectionTradetermsExample 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic structure Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?ChannelSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle”.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrand properly positioned for themarket? 20

32、04 Capgemini - All rights reservedAccountPack sizeREPURCHASEDISTExercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts business problemSituationKmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line Discount storesDifferent pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strategy of week

33、ly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts regular prices are higher than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lowerWal*Mart has a better price perception than KmartKmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%)Kmart has sign

34、ificantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*MartWal*Marts scale advantage is not driven by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better sales per square foot)Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales than Wal*Mart ($17

35、0 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*MartComplicationKmart is operating at break-even, and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution and Kmarts over

36、all profitabilityQuestion?Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including identifying the key question that our study must answer 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedExercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*MarExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is to logically or

37、ganize the factsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strate

38、gyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than Kmart 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedExercise 1 define and structExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step is to iterate to drive insight creationAlthough Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&A has led to erodi

39、ng sales productivityHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive

40、 WalMart prices better than KmartWalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMartCustomers perceive WalMart delivers higher value in some areasHow can Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)? 2004 Capgemini - All rights reser

41、vedExercise 1 define and structExercise 4 summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats the problem?Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no priceinflation and that interest rates have remained constantThe 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the dataOften we miss the goldmine because we

42、 are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it This data, taken from a real client (but rebased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in one picture 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedExercise 4 summary performanExercise 5 using a “quick and dirty” approach can produce su

43、rprisingly accurate results30 million?300 million?3 billion?30 billion?300 billion?How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?Data: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedExercise 5 using a “quick aDevelop a Hypothesis 2004 Capgemi

44、ni - All rights reservedDevelop a Hypothesis 2004 CapExplicitly ties your analysis to your problem definitionWhy hypotheses matterThey keep your effortHelps define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quic

45、k check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on it?”Keeps you efficientOn targetAccurateMinimalActionableOn Time 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedExplicitly ties your analysis Source: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle

46、”.1. Rule2. Case3. ResultRuleCaseResultIf we put the price too high, sales will go downWe have put prices too highTherefore, sales will go downCaseResultRuleWe have put prices upSales have gone downSales have gone down because the price is too highSales have gone downSales go down when prices are to

47、o highProbably we have put prices too highHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbduction is a variation on deductive and inductive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1. Case2. Result3. Rule1. Result2. Rule3. Case 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedSource: Barbara Minto, “The PDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit driversMinimal: “Occams razor”Actionab