中级宏观经济学绪论课件

1、中级宏观经济学绪论中级宏观经济学绪论Course ObjectiveUsing formal models and analytical tools, we will study the behavior of aggregate economic variables.Discussing business cycles，the affects of monetary and fiscal policy，sources of long run economic growth as well as micro foundation of macroeconomics.The goal of th

2、is course to develop a more sophisticated understanding of macroeconomic concepts as well as enhance the students ability to think critically and analyze important macroeconomic issue.Course ObjectiveUsing formal mMacroeconomic Issues Why does the cost of living keep rising? Why are millions of peop

3、le unemployed? Why are there recessions? Can policymakers do anything? Should they? What is the government deficit? How does it affect the economy? Why does China have a large trade surplus? Macroeconomic Issues Why doesMacroeconomics Chapter 14Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. HistoryMacroec

4、onomics Chapter 16OuMacroeconomics Chapter 15Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. HistoryGrowth rate of real GDP for year tMultiply by 100 to get the growth rate of real GDP in percent per year.Macroeconomics Chapter 17Ou中级宏观经济学绪论Macroeconomics Chapter 17Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S.

5、HistoryMacroeconomics Chapter 19OuMacroeconomics Chapter 18Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. HistoryMacroeconomics Chapter 110OMacroeconomics Chapter 19Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. HistoryGDP 的价格平减指数，2000的数值为100Macroeconomics Chapter 111OMacroeconomics Chapter 110Output, Unemploym

6、ent, and Prices in U.S. HistoryInflation rate for year t Macroeconomics Chapter 112OMacroeconomics Chapter 111Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. HistoryMacroeconomics Chapter 113OMacroeconomics Chapter 112A Brief Introduction of Chinese Success (All data without special notes are from Chinese

7、Statistical Yearbook) Nominal 1978: 2013: GDP 364.5 Billion RMB 56884 Billion RMB GDP p.c. 381 Yuan RMB 41521 Yuan RMBMacroeconomics Chapter 114AMacroeconomics Chapter 113Real GDP 1978: 2005 2013: GDP 100 1206 2619GDP p.c.100 891 1854Macroeconomics Chapter 115RMacroeconomics Chapter 114Growth rate (

8、 in RMB )Macroeconomics Chapter 116GMacroeconomics Chapter 115Macroeconomics Chapter 117中级宏观经济学绪论Macroeconomics Chapter 117Macroeconomics Chapter 119中级宏观经济学绪论Macroeconomics Chapter 119如何去理解我们这个世界？亚里士多德的观察： 鸡毛下落速度远慢于铁球伽利略的实验： 两个铁球同时落地Macroeconomics Chapter 121如Macroeconomics Chapter 120如何去理解我们这个世界？实验

9、的条件是什么？ 忽略空气浮力模型与假设Macroeconomics Chapter 122如Economics Modelsare simplified versions of a complex reality irrelevant details are stripped away are used to show relationships between variables explain the economys behavior devise policies to improve economic performance Economics Modelsare simplifie

10、Macroeconomics Chapter 122Economic ModelsEndogenous variables（内生变量） are the ones that we want the model to explain.Exogenous variables （外生变量）are the ones that a model takes as given and does not attempt to explain.Macroeconomics Chapter 124EMacroeconomics Chapter 123Economic ModelsMacroeconomics Cha

11、pter 125EMacroeconomics Chapter 124Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market目标 我们想去了解咖啡价格的决定因素。什么因素促使咖啡价格上升？ -买的人多了 -西方文化的流行 -咖啡对身体健康作用的发现Macroeconomics Chapter 126EMacroeconomics Chapter 125Economic ModelsThe Coffee MarketMacroeconomics Chapter 127EMacroeconomics Chapter 126Economic ModelsThe Coffee MarketM

12、acroeconomics Chapter 128EMacroeconomics Chapter 127Economic ModelsThe Coffee MarketMacroeconomics Chapter 129EMacroeconomics Chapter 128Economic ModelsThe Coffee MarketMacroeconomics Chapter 130EMacroeconomics Chapter 129Economic ModelsThe Coffee MarketMacroeconomics Chapter 131E模型的多样性没有单一的模型能够说明我们

13、关注的所有问题： 如果我们想知道总收入下降如何影响咖啡的价格，那么我们可以使用咖啡市场的the S/D model . 但是如果我们想知道总收入为什么会下降，我们需要不同的模型。模型的多样性没有单一的模型能够说明我们关注的所有问题： 模型的多样性所以我们必须学习不同的模型，来研究不同的问题。对于每一个新模型，必须要记住以下假设哪些变量是内生的，哪些变量是外生的which of its variables are endogenous and which are exogenous模型能帮助我们理解哪些问题，不能理解哪些问题the questions it can help us underst

14、and, and those it cannot模型的多样性所以我们必须学习不同的模型，来研究不同的问题。Macroeconomics Chapter 132Economic ModelsDisequilibrium a discrepancy between the quantities of demanded and supplied.New Keynesian model, argues that some prices are sticky and move only slowly to equate the quantities of goods demanded and suppl

15、ied.Macroeconomics Chapter 134EMacroeconomics Chapter 133Economic ModelsEconomic growth modelEquilibrium business-cycle model - basic market-clearing model of economic fluctuations （Neo-classical model）Macroeconomics Chapter 135E宏观模型基本假设：价格的伸缩性（flexible）与黏性(sticky)The economys behavior depends partl

16、y on whether prices are sticky or flexible:Market clearing an assumption that prices are flexible and adjust to equate supply and demand.市场出清：价格具有伸缩性（弹性），使得供给和需求平衡。In the short run, many prices are sticky-they adjust only sluggishly in response to supply/demand imbalances在短期，一些商品的价格是黏性的面对供求变动（供求出现不平

17、衡）时，价格调整非常缓慢。比如：labor contracts劳动合同规定工资水平magazine prices杂志报纸的价格通常三年才会调整。宏观模型基本假设：价格的伸缩性（flexible）与黏性(sIf prices are sticky, then demand wont always equal supply如果价格是的黏性，需求将不会总是与供给相等，这用于解释：失业 (excess supply of labor)the occasional inability of firms to sell what they produce企业无法将其生产出来的产品全部销售出去Long ru

18、n: prices flexible, markets clear, economy behaves very differently在长期，价格是伸缩性的，市场是出清的。中级宏观经济学绪论本书的安排第一部分：导言（Chps 1&2）第二部分：古典理论（Chps36）当价格是伸缩性的，经济在长期中如何表现？第三部分：增长理论（Chps7&8）极长期中生活水平是如何提高的？第四部分：经济周期理论（Chps913）当价格是黏性的，经济在短期中如何表现？本书的安排第一部分：导言（Chps 1&2）第五部分：宏观经济政策的争论（Chps1415）当经济波动的时候，政府应该干预经济吗？政府债务如何解决？

19、第六部分：宏观经济学的微观基础（Chps1619）从微观的角度，分析消费者、厂商和其他问题的行为与表现第五部分：宏观经济政策的争论（Chps1415）宏观经济学的发展：亚当斯密创立了经济学： 1776年的国富论“看不见的手”“看不见的手”：人们都是自利的，在追求自身利益最大化的时候，好象有一只看不见的手引导他们（其实没有），结果导致社会福利达到最大。宏观经济学的发展：亚当斯密创立了经济学： 献给女王陛下的一本书：女王陛下，请您回家去吧！请不要干涉经济，回家去吧。国家做什么？国家是守夜人。当夜幕降临的时候，维持秩序，看看街上没有偷盗行为就回家去吧。国家不要干涉经济，经济自然就会发展。献给女王陛下的一本书：凯恩斯创立的宏观理论凯恩斯 John Maynard Keynes （18831946）。1930年代大危机使自由市场经济理论受到挑战。1936年凯恩斯发表就业、利息和货币通论，“挖坑理论”，提出国家干预经济思想看的见的手，标志着宏观经济学产生。凯恩斯深信政府在指导和刺激经济增长方面的重要作用，并由此形成了主张政府干预经济的“凯恩斯学派 凯恩斯创立的宏观理论总需求与总供给41约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯 1883-1946就业、利息与货币通论 1936年衰退和萧条之所以发生，是因为对物品与劳务的总需求不足；政策制定者应该移动总需求对古典经济学理论的著名批