量化历史班版pekin univ3european fiscal centralization

1、 Towards the Modern State: Multiple Paths in Fiscal Centralization of Europe, 1500-1800evket Pamuk with Kivan Karaman Bogazii University, Istanbul presented at The 3rd Summer School on Quantitative History Pekin University, July 2015Some Introductory Remarks:Motivations for Studying State Formation

2、in Early Modern EuropeStates play very important roles in Economic Development . not only by providing security and enforcing laws but also by creating the laws themselves, providing support for markets, various other public goods and support for the private sector State Capacity in important . In t

3、his paper we test Theories of State Formation early modern in Europe by using new evidence from both Western and Eastern EuropeDifferent Paths to the Modern State in Europe: The Interaction between Warfare, Economic Structure and Political RegimeAmerican Political Science Review, 2013K. Kvan Karaman

4、 and evket Pamuk Boazii University, Istanbul, Turkeyfollows our earlier paper on the Ottoman Empire .Early Modern State Finances in EuropeOne critical feature of early modern Europe was the high level of interstate competition and warfare. Military expenditures dominated state budgets. Frequent wars

5、 posed the greatest challenge to early modern states. All European states struggled to deal with the fiscal shocks created by the wars. How states financed their wars had important implications for the economy.Fiscal Centralization in Early Modern Europe Those states which were able to establish and

6、 implement an efficient system of taxation and collect more taxes at the center:- enjoyed greater military success in the international arena.- benefited from greater capacity to deal with domestic challenges, - were able to shield their economies better from the large fiscal shocks created by the w

7、ars.- Stronger macroeconomic and institutional environment and the increased capacity to enforce property rights and support markets also enabled strong states to bring about greater economic development.(Hoffman and Norbert, 1994; OBrien, 2004; Van Zanden and Prak, 2006; Besley and Persson, 2009)Mu

8、ltiple Paths to Fiscal Centralization - 1Our econometric study suggests that there was not a single path to fiscal centralization and state formation in early modern Europe. Not One but Multiple Paths to the Modern Era across EuropeWe find that tax revenues increase with warfare and with economic st

9、ructure (degree of urbanization). On the other hand, political regime by itself, does not have a statistically significant contribution to tax levels collected at the center.Multiple Paths to Fiscal Centralization - 2When we allow for interaction between warfare, economic structure and political reg

10、ime, we find that :i) In the more urbanized, higher e countries in NW Europe (Dutch Republic, Great Britain), fiscal centralization was achieved under representative regimes.ii) In the more rural (more agricultural) and lower e countries in Central and Eastern Europe, tax revenues also increased und

11、er the pressure of wars but more slowly, Fiscal centralization in these countries was not achieved under more representative regimes (Poland) but under less representative and more authoritarian political regimes. (Austria, Prussia, Russia) We need to understand, Europe, past and present, with the h

12、elp of this DiversityMotivation and AgendaFramework: The formation of states and determinants of state capacityCore issue in study of political economy, economic historyConsolidation of state apparatus necessary for economic development ?Acemoglu (2005) , Besley and Persson (2009), Dincecco (2009)Fo

13、cus on Early Modern Europe (1500-1800) and not the 19th centuryFormative period for modern state system, permenant gains in centralized fiscal and coercive capacity well before the Industrial Revolution and the onset of economic growth Variations in timing, extent, the paths to state formation19th c

14、entury a different era for fiscal centralization Test alternative theories of state formationData: Tax Revenues and Other IndicatorsAnnual Tax Revenue Series for 1500-1800Central treasury revenues, excluding loans, converted to tons of silverAlso Series forPopulation, wages, urbanization, political

15、regime, warfare, book production, army sizes, size of territoryCountries:England, France, Dutch Republic, Spain, Venice, Austria-Hungary, Portugal, Prussia, Russia, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Sweden and Ottoman EmpireTheories of State Formation in Early Modern EuropeThree Sets of Variables :I-

16、Changes in Economic StructureII- Interstate Competition and WarfareIII- Political RegimeRepresentative vs Authoritarian I- Changes in Economic StructureHypothesis: Changes in Economic Structure - Rise of Centralized StatesAnderson (1974), Wallerstein (1974), Spuyt (1994) and others Urbanization, inc

17、rease in domestic and international trade, growing use of money, commodification of land and labor - Realignment of domestic interests towards centralized tax collection and provisioning of public goods- Build up of centralized fiscal capacity and stateII- Interstate Competition and WarfareHypothesi

18、s: Interstate Warfare - Rise of Centralized StatesBean (1973), Hinze (1975), Rasler and Thompson (1989), Tilly (1990), OBrien (2009)Sustained interstate warfare - Technological and organizational innovations - Domestic monopolization of coercion-Increase in fiscal capacityIII- Political Regime or Re

19、presentationHypothesis: Representative Regime- Positive Impact on Rise of Centralized StatesLevi (1988), Hoffman and Norberg (1994), Dincecco (2009)Premise: Domestic elites cooperate towards centralized state- building Representative regime- Information transmission, reduce costs of negotiation, sol

20、ve free rider problems among taxpayers- Increase fiscal capacityHypothesis: Representative Regime- Negative Impact on Rise of Centralized StatesDowning (1992) , Thomson and Rasler (1998)Premise: Domestic elites antagonistic towards centralized state-building Representative regime - Greater resistanc

21、e to taxation by domestic elites- Decrease fiscal capacityTesting the TheoriesDependent variablePer capita Tax Revenues divided by Daily WagesIndependent VariablesWar PressureRegimeEconomic Stuctureand interactions between themControl VariablesFixed Effects for Country and DecadeRegression EquationR

22、esults- Positive impact of changes in Economic Structure- Positive impact of War- A more complicated pattern for Political Regime: we find there were multiple paths to fiscal centralization and the modern state in early modern Europe:in the more urban economies in western Europe, more representative

23、 regimes were better able to increase central tax revenues under pressure of war: in contrast, in the more rural economies in central and eastern Europe, it was more authoritarian regimes that were better able to increase central tax revenues under pressure of war.InterpretationIn more rural and mor

24、e agricultural economiesdomestic elites were antagonistic towards centralized state-buildinglandowners wanted to retain their coercive capacity to tax agriculture and defend their interestsAs a result, representative assemblies hindered centralized state-building; authoritarian regimes performed bet

25、terIn more urban economiesdomestic elites cooperated towards centralized state-building . deals .strong central states served their interests through war-making and overseas tradeAs a result, representative assemblies facilitated centralized state-buildingTable 8: Classification of Polities Based on Urbanization Rates and Actual Regime TypeAuthoritarian (Reprtax=0)Representative (Reprtax=1)Urb. Rate8.0%France (1680- 1789)England (1640-1799)7Spain (1650-1799) Spain (1540-1649)8The Ottomans6Portugal (153