马来西亚石油与天然气：生产削减

1、16August 2019MalaysiaEQUITIESMsia gross production: slowing (MMboe)Malaysia O&GKey pointsKey points Our proprietary analysis of IHS Markit data points to urgency for brownfield redevelopment to stem potential 34% domestic production decline by FY25. We see Dialog as the best brownfield play, with it

2、s strong balance sheet, track record and integrated solutions. Initiate with OP and RM3.80 TP. In contrast, there are Malaysian E&P companies 31% CAGR in entitled production led by SAPE. Offshore E&C outlook remains positive as well.We arehereProducing Improved rec. Enhanced rec. Developing Await. d

3、ev. Appraising Discovery02015Source: IHS Markit, August 2019List cos production: 2025 peak (MMboe)3025+31%20CAGR1510502040UZMA DLG REB HIBI SAPEPetronas: fending off production declineOur proprietary bottom-up analysis of IHS Markit data points to growing urgency for Petronas to stem the decline in

4、Malaysian production by 2025, and by extension, defend government petroleum revenues. We expect emphasis will be placed on brownfield redevelopment in order to enhance recovery rates, while the pipeline of development and discovery assets cannot afford any delays.Malaysias gross production will peak

5、 in FY20/21 and fall 34% by FY25 as production assets mature, based on IHS Markit data. The decline in liquids will substantially outpace that in gas, with new developments being gas-focused. We do not expect appraisal/discovery assets to contribute substantially until FY25, and would have to make t

6、he unrealistic assumption of 100% appraisal/ discovery asset conversion if production is to be assumed to sustain at 600MMboe/yr. The20152040Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Inside HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Productiondeduction2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Petronas: Arrestingproductiondecline3 HYPERLINK l _boo

7、kmark2 Production runway forE&P companies6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Positive medium-term offshore E&C HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 outlook11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Greenfield opportunitiesathome12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Appendix15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Dialog Group Bhd(DLGMK)16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Sap

8、ura Energy Bhd(SAPE MK)49 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 MacVisit: HibiscusPetroleumBhd55 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 MacVisit: ReachEnergyBhd61AnalystsMacquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. HYPERLINK /directory/people/details?analystId=5332 Ben Shane Lim +6 03 2059 8868 HYPERLINK mailto:benshane.li

9、m benshane.limdata suggests government take will fall 30%-34% by FY25 without intervention.Capex cant slow: We remain upbeat on medium-term offshore E&C activity, despite turning more bearish on oil (see Vikas Dwivedis latest HYPERLINK /api/static/file/publications/7378520/1e93af5ca3bc553b0a7b769db8

10、5aac36aa845ae054f6ff85b71dd2e1c8aa391d.pdf?f=DP Global O&G HYPERLINK /api/static/file/publications/7378520/1e93af5ca3bc553b0a7b769db85aac36aa845ae054f6ff85b71dd2e1c8aa391d.pdf?f=DP update). Based on the current development pipeline, non-exploration capex looks set for 35% CAGR till FY22 with the top

11、side fabrication requirement alone registering 74% CAGR. Petronas cannot afford to take its foot off the capex pedal, or risk further production deceleration. The persisting capex requirement affirms our Petronas Monetisation thesis (see HYPERLINK /api/static/file/publications/7375710/1f73e8a64c4eb2

12、ba86304af472d0bff0390079a0a6efd90802992b8267f4f8ad.pdf?f=DP More pressure): 1) increased payouts from listed subsidiaries (PChem/PetDag) and/or; 2) stake sales.For brownfield, Dialog: We believe tank terminal infrastructure company Dialog is best positioned as a brownfield redevelopment play, with i

13、ts strong balance sheet, solid track record, and integrated solutions. Initiate with OP (pg 16).Sapura best E&P play (OP, RM0.47 TP): SAPE offers the best project economics relative to reserve size among Malaysian E&P companies. SK408 production ramp-up as early as 4QCY19 will triple production. 50%

14、 stake sale to OMV (US$1.6bn EV) lends strong confidence to timely execution and recovery rates. Reiterate E&P-led FY21 turnaround, with E&C upside (pg 49).Other ideas: E&P MacVisitsHIBI (NR): The 50% stake the UKs North Sea Marigold asset cost US$37.5m or US$1.25/boe vs IHS Markit-estimated NPV of

15、US$8.05/boe. Mgmt plans 15% stake sale to fund capex; balance 35% entitlement is estimated to double production by FY23, on top of 30% growth in existing brownfield production assets.REB (NR): IHS values REBs (60% stake) Emir Oil asset at US$558m-US$1bn or 3.2x-5.8x REBs estimate EV of US$170m. Mgmt

16、 guides 1Q19 breakeven on 4 new wells (at US$65/bbl oil), but cautions US$50m refinancing + US$25m ST capex requirement; cumulative US$310m required by FY23.Please refer to page HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 67 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disc

17、losures /research/disclosures.E&P companies production torise, but Petronas will be production declineinProduction deductionMalaysian production set to declineWe expect an increased urgency for Petronas to stem the decline in Malaysian production. This includes expediting greenfield developments as

18、well as enhances/improved production for aging assets.Based on IHS Markit data, the existing pipeline of development assets will be insufficient to arrest the decline in gross revenues and government take. This is partly because gas is the primary resource for the pipeline of development assets. Gre

19、enfield interest has also been lacklustre: only two of nine blocks of the 2018 offering have been contracted (24% of km2 take-up), while the bidding deadlines for 2019 block offer had to be extended (pg 14). Note, Petronas overall revenue entitlements should remain relatively stable with the help of

20、 non-Malaysian entitlements (pg 4).Fig 1 Government take headed forrapiddeclineFig 2 Falling liquid revenues (gross) the maindriverUS$m16,00014,00012,00010,0008,000-31%Producing Improved recovery Enhanced recovery DevelopingAwaiting dev. approval AppraisingDiscovery-31%Producing Improved recovery En

21、hanced recovery DevelopingAwaiting dev. approval AppraisingDiscoveryUS$Liquid revenue Gas revenueGas price per Mcf assumption (RHS) Oil price per bbl assumption (RHS)65Liquid revenue Gas revenueGas price per Mcf assumption (RHS) Oil price per bbl assumption (RHS)6,0004,0002,00010,0005,00020192020202

22、1202220192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040Source: IHS Markit,August2019Source: IHS Markit, August 2019E&P companies have solid production runwayIn stark contrast

23、, Malaysian E&P companies face a different outlook with +31% CAGR in production expected. SAPEs production growth is domestic, while HIBI and REBs will be driven by UK/Kazakhstan production respective.Fig 3 Grossproduction outlookFig 4 Relative share price performance vsBrentFactor 100BrentSAPESAPE+

24、31%CAGRHIBIREB DLGUZMA30200SAPE+31%CAGRHIBIREB DLGUZMA180251602015100108060540DLGHIBI REB UZMA202015201620152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040-Oct 17Apr 18Oct 18Apr 19Source: IHS Markit,August 2019Source: Bloomberg, August2019Petronas

25、: Arresting production declineMalaysias production is expected to peak in FY20/FY21 (Fig 5) as a number of improved recovery assets begin a sharp decline (-42% by FY25), exacerbating the decline in producing assets (-31% by FY25). Based on the current trajectory of producing and development assets,

26、Malaysian production is on course for sustained multi-year declines in production starting from FY21. The only way to sustain production at 600MMBOE, would be a 100% conversion of all discovery and appraisedassets,whichishighlyunlikely.Notably,Petronaswillaimtooffsetthisdeclinewithnon- Malaysian pro

27、duction (pg 4).Fig 5 Malaysia production outlookFallingliquidrevenues, and aprimarilygas developmentpipelineis driving a -34%declinein government takeoverFY20-FY25.MMboe-42%Producing Improved rec. Enhanced rec. Developing Await. dev. AppraisingDiscovery-31%e-42%Producing Improved rec. Enhanced rec.

28、Developing Await. dev. AppraisingDiscovery-31%7006005004003002001002010201220102012201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042204420462048205020522054See appendix for definitions Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Gross revenue decline: -32% by 2025 (Fig 2): The immediate production dec

29、line pressure stems from liquids (as opposed to gas), since the bulk of the new development assets incoming are primarily gas-producing. Based on production and development assets alone, gross liquid revenues are expected to fall 48% from FY20 to FY25, while gas revenues will fall 11%. Overall gross

30、 revenue will decline 32% in the same period, according to IHS Markitdata.Government take: -34% by FY25 (Fig 1): In turn, we see massive pressure on the governmentsshareofrevenues,whichisprojectedtofall34%infromFY20toFY25,basedon producing and development assets alone. Even including assets awaiting

31、 approval, under appraisal and discovery assets, the decline is only slowed to-31%.140120100PM-315 SK-408Block H - RotanSK-320Block H806040140120100PM-315 SK-408Block H - RotanSK-320Block H806040200US$m 4,000Gas Liquids3,500Gas Liquids3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0002015201620172015201620172018201920202021

32、2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044Source: IHS Markit,August2019Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Saved by foreign productionWe also note that

33、 Petronas has been active in pursuing foreign assets to beef up entitled production. Of course, these assets will contribute substantially less to government take.Despite a sharp fall in Malaysian production and revenues, Petronass overall entitlement revenue will face an average annual decline of o

34、nly -1% (starting FY21 onwards) due to the stronger overseas production. Of course, due to local royalties, overseas assets production generate relatively lower entitlement revenues.That said, we should be cautious on these assumptions as the bulk of Petronas non-Malaysian revenues will come from th

35、e Canadain fact from a single project, the Montney BC-Frontier Wet Gas project.Fig 8 Petronas global gross production:bycountryFig 9 Petronas global entitled production: bycountryewe are hereOthers Malaysia/Thailand JDA Azerbaijan TurkmenistanIraq Canada Malaysia800ewe are hereOthers Malaysia/Thaila

36、nd JDA Azerbaijan TurkmenistanIraq Canada Malaysia700600500600ewe are hereOthers Malaysia/Thailand JDA Azerbaijan TurkmenistanIraq Canada Malaysia500ewe are hereOthers Malaysia/Thailand JDA Azerbaijan TurkmenistanIraq Canada Malaysia4004003003002001002001002015201620172015201620172018201920202021202

37、220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040Source: IHS Markit,August2019Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Fig 10 Petronas global entitlement revenue:bycountryFig 11 Petr

38、onas global entitled production: bystatusUS$mOthersMMboeProducing16,00014,00012,00010,000Overseas revenues offset declineMalaysia/Thailand JDA Azerbaijan TurkmenistanIraq Canada Malaysia600500400Improved rec. Enhanced rec. Developing Await. dev. Appraising Discovery-Malaysian revenues in decline3002

39、00100201920202021201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040Source: IHS Markit,August2019Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Brownfield opportunityWe antici

40、pate Petronas will have tight deadlines to put in place programmes to maximise recovery from aging assets. Among the domestic players with the balance sheet capacity, track record and expertise, Dialog stands out as our top pick to benefit directly from new brownfield and/or greenfield assets; putti

41、ng offshore services aside.Based on IHS data, we have identified 14 blocks that have 20% of their reserves remaining. For greenfield opportunities, see pg 12.Fig 12 Producing blocks 10%)Fig 13 Producing blocks RM4bn by FY22, with topside facilities making up RM1.7bn of said capex.In fact, we anticip

42、ate further upside from brownfield redevelopment projects lifting demand of offshore services and solutionspositive for both Dialog and Sapura. The ongoing requirement for capex also affirms our HYPERLINK /api/static/file/publications/7375710/1f73e8a64c4eb2ba86304af472d0bff0390079a0a6efd90802992b826

43、7f4f8ad.pdf?f=DP Petronas Monetisation Thesis.See also: HYPERLINK /api/static/file/publications/7363080/f216827e2a95c8113518ee3fb3226106d4d1bc123b54c687275f631b64de0b0e.pdf?f=DP Petronas 2019-21 outlookFig 32 Malaysian offshore capex: non-exploration capex on growth trajectoryUS$bnFacilitiesSubseaFa

44、cilitiesFloatersFacilitiesPipelinesFacilitiesStructures8FacilitiesTopsidesDecomm SeismicCostsDevDrilling7Dev FacilitiesProd.FacilitiesAppraisal DrillingCostsExploration Drilling Costs654321201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030020102011201220132014201520

45、1620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Source: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, August 2019US$bn 76Producing Improved recovery Enhanced DevelopingAwaiting dev. approval AppraisingUS$bn 76Producing Improved recovery Enhanced DevelopingAwaiting dev. approval AppraisingDiscovery543210

46、201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Source: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, August 2019201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Greenfield opportunities at homeWe expect Sapura-OMV to be a top contender for ne

47、w greenfield projects.There are currently three major assets that have been appraised and are awaiting approval Limbayong, Belud, and K5. We expect development of these assets to go ahead as planned.LimbayongUL - Belud DevelopmentK5Fig 34 Assets awaiting approvalLimbayongUL - Belud DevelopmentK56050

48、4030201020192020201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048204920502051205220532054Source: IHS Markit, August 2019There are a large number of assets that are currently under appraisal with a more balanced resource skewabout

49、 50:50 liquid to gas. The largest block is SK318, with estimated 530MMBoe of reserves estimated.oeSK-306 SK-315Mengkuang/TembakauBlockoeSK-306 SK-315Mengkuang/TembakauBlock2GSK-314ABlock SK-305Bindu Block R WL4-00 PM-313 SK-318PM313SK410BSK318Not knownMMb 15010050201820192018201920202021202220232024

50、202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048Source: IHS Markit, August 2019Looking further ahead, we note that Petronas has been active in offering new blocks for exploration. In 2019 Petronas put up 14,116km2 of blocks up for bidding (which closed

51、 May/June). Meanwhile Petronas put up 39,540km2 of blocks in 2018, of which 24% (by area) or 2/9 blocks was taken up (Figs 39-42).Fig 36 Petronas 2019 bidding blocksBlock nameBasin nameBid closeTerrain(s)Block (km2)% DeepwaterPM-337Malay Basin30-MayShelf2,464.17n/aPM-409Malay Basin30-MayShelf1,667.3

52、2n/aSB 2HOutboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)27-JunDeep Water/Shelf2,157.8769%SB 2TBaram Delta|Outboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)27-JunDeep Water/Shelf2,723.5299%SB-407Inboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)/30-MayShelf4,058.02n/aNorthwest Borneo TerraneSB-411Baram Delta|Inboard Belt (Nort

53、hwest Sabah Province)/30-MayShelf1,046n/aOutboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)Source: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, July 2019Fig 37 Bid blocks PeninsulaMalaysiaFig 38 Bid blocks SabahSource: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research,July2019Source: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, July2019Fig 39 Petronas 2

54、018 bidding blocks contractedBlock nameBasin name(s)Contract statusTerrain(s)Block (km2)Award dateContract typePartnerPartner stakePM-415Malay BasinSurface ExplorationShelf3,3502019-03-21PSC30%PTTEP HK Offshore Ltd70%PM-407Malay Basin|PenyuSub-basin(West Natuna Basin)|Tenggol Surface6,2782019-03-214

55、5%PTTEP HK Offshore55%Arch (Malay Basin)Exploration ShelfPSCLtdSource: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, August 2019Fig 40 Petronas 2018 bidding blocks open blocksBlock nameBasin name(s)Contract statusTerrains(s)Block (km2)Deepwater%SK-328Southwest Balingian Sub-basin Tatau ProvinceOpen BlockShelf8,12

56、8.33n/aSK-427Balingian Province|Central Balingian Sub-basinTatau ProvinceOpen BlockShelf3,342.89n/aSB 2KNorthwest Sabah PlatformOpen BlockDeep Water1,965.77100%Northwest Sabah TroughSB-412Inboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province) Outboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)Open BlockDeep Water/Shelf3,406.

57、4923%SK-433Baram DeltaOpen BlockLand3,790.72n/aTinjar ProvinceSK-334Inboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)Open BlockLand/Shelf7,194.35n/aNorthwest Borneo TerraneSB-410Baram DeltaInboard Belt (Northwest Sabah Province)Open BlockShelf2,082.23n/aSource: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, August 2019Fig 4

58、1 Petronass 2018contractedblocksFig 42 Petronass 2018 openblocksSource: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research,July2019Source: IHS Markit, Macquarie Research, July2019AppendixFig 43 Asset statusdefinitionsAssetstatusDefinitionDiscoveryDiscoveries on which no current or recent appraisal activity isknown.Appr

59、aisingDiscoveries being evaluated at the last time the discovery wasresearched.Awaiting development approvalA commitment to invest has been made on the part of the operating group but government approval has not yet been granted.DevelopingA commitment to invest has been made on the part of the opera

60、ting groupand government approval has been granted.ProducingWith the exception of artificial lift (pumping; gas lift), any advanced technology applied is not an ongoing phenomenon but is limited primarily to the drilling and completion phase of reservoirdevelopment.Production - RecoveryProduction -