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1、Matthew BucklandGM: New Media, M&G Onlinefuture web trends innovation series 2007 with jimmy walesIMG SRC: FlickrMatthew Bucklandfuture web trethe thing about predictions.IMG SRC: Flickrthe thing about predictions. Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. Popular Mechanics, forecasti

2、ng the relentless march of science, 1949 Computers in the future may I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 I think there is a world ma 640K ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal 640K ought to be enough for There is no rea

3、son anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 There is no reason anyoneinternet connectivityDirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” internetComputers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to workMost applications we

4、b-based for best efficiencyIMG SRC: Flickrinternet connectivityDirt cheall digital devices will be connected & networkedFrom your car, radio, phone, fridge. “always on”An unconnected digital device will be a strange thingWiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD?all digital devices will be

5、corise of the mobile internetRapid improvements in connectivity & screensMobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwideJapan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones)Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts - IM Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of payme

6、ntCitizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?rise of the mobile internetRarise of individual & entrepreneurOpen source = unprecedented access to code & applicationsCheap to create business online & make own mediaTeenager in basement same opp. as worker in big companyEXAMPLE: New mob

7、ile operating system (Android)?rise of individual & entreprestrides against digital divideDeveloping world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phonesAlso become part of economy via cellphone walletMobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitousIlliteracy issues overcome by video & audio streamsCreates new

8、 areas of collaboration and educationstrides against digital dividealmost no privacy on the webYour data will be out thereIt will be ok because everyone will be in the same boatSeeing already with soc. networking services like FBalmost no privacy on the webYthe rise of the virtual universeVirtual wo

9、rlds like Second life go mainstreamCome to fore as graphic cards & broadband improvePotentially a visual alternative to the world wide webStandards: different worlds connect to each other seamlesslyVirtual coup detat by SL citizens?Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically elected virtual govtthe rise

10、of the virtual univeinformation pollution & overloadNext big challenge is how to manage masses of informationPeople will complain about digital fatigue“ & digital noiseFocus on developing filters & aggregators“Switch-off holidays regularly prescribed by your doctorRise of anti-digital movements urgi

11、ng “get back to basics”In response to clutter, a second world wide web announcedinformation pollution & overlomore googles & facebooksGoogle & Facebook finally get good competitionMicrosoft releases OS code and goes open sourceMS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving supportAdvertising is ma

12、in bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers)Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influencemore googles & facebooksGoogldecline of the nation state?Govt has less influence & control than ever beforeTechnologies threaten existing power & economic relationshipsAlso: music industry has resisted

13、 digital audio and NapsterBut oppressive regimes clamp down on internetSome countries regress into dark ages decline of the nation state?G.and media?.and media?media distribution & productionAll media eventually delivered via internet Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies leftAll fu

14、lly converged, broadcasting & publishing via the netMedia on many digital platformsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA media distribution & productifragmented media environmentNon-media players become de facto media companiesMedia world filled with new compe

15、titorsCellphone operators, handset makers - media companiesVodacom stop aggregating, start producing own contentOperators already big media companies (Voda: 1,4m users)Battle between media & cellphone companies loomingMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA frag

16、mented media environmentNonow everyone is a media playerBarrier to entry drops even more dramaticallyRise of the reader and the consumer Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaboratorsSmall, converged media challenge media conglomeratesMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA M

17、EDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA now everyone is a media playerrole of media changesAlso content aggregators, facilitatorsBusiness model: capture audience via all meansMedia companies look to own channels: deals for own phones?Content portals - web applications & servicesSocial networks as well as conte

18、nt hubsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA role of media changesAlso contis this the end of print?Books, newspapers magazines.Read on flexible digital boards, always connected Websites & digital newspapers become “same thing”Newspapers smaller & niched, but

19、not extinctNewspapers become expensive, luxury itemsA lifestyle item: buying an “experience”, part of “offtime”MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA is this the end of print?BookIMG SRC: WANNIMG SRC: WANN.other developments.other developmentsother trends forno

20、w & the futureSemantic web entrenchedArtificial intelligenceAttention economy in full swingSophisticated personalisation of contentLocation-based/mapping services common & mobileVirtualisation eg: Amazons EC2 & S3 servicesWeb 14.0?. ;-)SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blogother trends fornow & the futForget capitalism and the class struggle. the digital revolution is changing things far more dramatically than the hypemongers ever imagined. the move fr