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CHAPTER3BALANCEOFPAYMENTSSUGGESTEDANSWERSANDSOLUTIONSTOEND-OF-CHAPTER
QUESTIONSANDPROBLEMS
QUESTIONS
Definethebalanceofpayments.
Answer: Thebalanceofpayments(BOP)canbedefinedasthestatisticalrecordofacountry’s
internationaltransactionsoveracertainperiodoftimepresentedintheformofdouble-entrybookkeeping.
Whywoulditbeusefultoexamineacountry’sbalanceofpaymentsdata?
Answer:Itwouldbeusefultoexamineacountry’sBOPforatleasttworeaso ns.First,BOPprovidesdetailedinformationaboutthesupplyanddemandofthecountry’scurrency.Second,BOPdatacanbeusedtoevaluatetheperformanceofthecountryininternationaleconomiccompetition.Forexample,ifacountryis experiencingperennialBOPdeficits,itmaysignalthatthecountry’sindustrieslackcompetitiveness.
TheUnitedStateshasexperiencedcontinuouscurrentaccountdeficitssincetheearly1980s.Whatdoyouthinkarethemaincausesforthedeficits?WhatwouldbetheconsequencesofcontinuousU.S.currentaccountdeficits?
Answer:ThecurrentaccountdeficitsofU.S.mayhavereflectedafewreasonssuchas(I)ahistoricallyhighrealinterestrateintheU.S.,whichisduetoballooningfederalbudgetdeficits,thatkeptthedollarstrong,and(ii)weakcompetitivenessoftheU.S.industries.
IncontrasttotheU.S.,Japanhasrealizedcontinuouscurrentaccountsurpluses.Whatcouldbethemaincausesforthesesurpluses?Isitdesirabletohavecontinuouscurrentaccountsurpluses?
Answer:Japan’scontinuouscurrentaccountsurplusesmayhavereflectedaweakyenandhighcompetitivenessofJapaneseindustries.MassivecapitalexportsbyJapanpreventedyenfromappreciatingmorethanitdid.Atthesametime,foreigners’exportstoJapanwerehamperedbyclosednatureofJapanesemarkets.Continuouscurrentaccountsurplusesdisruptfreetradebypromotingprotectionist
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sentimentinthedeficitcountry.Itisnotdesirableespeciallywhenitisbroughtaboutbythemercantilistpolicies.
Commentonthefollowingstatement:“SincetheU.S.importsmorethanitexports,itisnecessaryfortheU.S.toimportcapitalfromforeigncountriestofinanceitscurrentaccountdeficits.”
Answer: ThestatementpresupposesthattheU.S.currentaccountdeficitcausesitscapitalaccountsurplus.Inreality,thecausalitymayberunningintheoppositedirection:U.S.capitalaccountsurplusmaycausethecountry’scurrentaccountdeficit.SupposeforeignersfindtheU.S.agreatplacetoinvestandsendtheircapitaltotheU.S.,resultinginU.S.capitalaccountsurplus.Thiscapitalinflowwillstrengthenthedollar,hurtingtheU.S.exportandencouragingimportsfromforeigncountries,causingcurrentaccountdeficits.
Explainhowacountrycanrunanoverallbalanceofpaymentsdeficitorsurplus.
Answer: AcountrycanrunanoverallBOPdeficitorsurplusbyengagingintheofficialreservetransactions.Forexample,anoverallBOPdeficitcanbesupportedbydrawingdownthecentralbank’sreserveholdings.Likewise,anoverallBOPsurpluscanbeabsorbedbyaddingtothecentralbank’sreserveholdings.
Explainofficialreserveassetsanditsmajorcomponents.
Answer: Officialreserveassetsarethosefinancialassetsthatcanbeusedasinternationalmeansofpayments.Currently,officialreserveassetscomprise:(I)gold,(ii)foreignexchanges,(iii)specialdrawingrights(SDRs),and(iv)reservepositionswiththeIMF.Foreignexchanges arebyfarthemostimportantofficialreserves.
Explainhowtocomputetheoverallbalanceanddiscussitssignificance.
Answer:TheoverallBOPisdeterminedbycomputingthecumulativebalanceofpaymentsincludingthecurrentaccount,capitalaccount,andthestatisticaldiscrepancies.TheoverallBOPissignificantbecauseitindicatesacountry’sinternationalpaymentgapthatmustbefinancedbythegovernment’sofficialreservetransactions.
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Sincetheearly1980s,foreignportfolioinvestorshavepurchasedasignificantportionofU.S.treasurybondissues.Discusstheshort-termandlong-termeffectsofforeigners’portfolioinvestmentontheU.S.balanceofpayments.
Answer:AsforeignerspurchaseU.S.Treasurybonds,U.S.BOPwillimproveintheshortrun.Butinthelongrun,U.S.BOPmaydeterioratebecausetheU.S.shouldpayinterestsandprincipalstoforeigners.IfforeignfundsareusedproductivelyandcontributestothecompetitivenessofU.S.industries,however,U.S.BOPmayimproveinthelongrun.
Describethebalanceofpaymentsidenatnidtydiscussitsimplicationsunderthefixedandflexibleexchangerateregimes.
Answer:Thebalanceofpaymentsidentityholdsthatthecombinedbalanceonthecurrentandcapitalaccountsshouldbeequalinsize,butoppositeinsign,tothechangeintheofficialreserves:BCA+BKA
=-BRA.Underthepureflexibleexchangerateregime,centralbanksdonotengageinofficialreservetransactions.Thus,theoverallbalancemustbalance,i.e.,BCA=-BKA.Underthefixedexchangerateregime,however,acountrycanhaveanoverallBOPsurplusordeficitasthecentralbankwillaccommodateitviaofficialreservetransactions.
Exhibit3.3indicatesthatin1991,theU.S.hadacurrentaccountdeficitandatthesametimeacapitalaccountdeficit.Explainhowthiscanhappen?
Answer:In1991,theU.S.experiencedanoverallBOPdeficit,whichmusthavebeenaccommodatedby
theFederalReserve’sofficialreserveaction,i.e.,drawingdownitsreserveholdings.
ExplainhoweachofthefollowingtransactionswillbeclassifiedandrecordedinthedebitandcreditoftheU.S.balanceofpayments:
AJapaneseinsurancecompanypurchasesU.S.TreasurybondsandpaysoutofitsbankaccountkeptinNewYorkCity.
AU.S.citizenconsumesamealatarestaurantinParisandpayswithherAmericanExpresscard.
AIndianimmigrantlivinginLosAngelessendsacheckdrawnonhisL.A.bankaccountasagifttohisparentslivinginBombay.
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AU.S.computerprogrammerishiredbyaBritishcompanyforconsultingandgetspaidfromtheU.S.bankaccountmaintainedbytheBritishcompany.
Answer:
Transactions
Credit
Debit
JapanesepurchaseofU.S.TbondsJapanesepaymentusingNYCaccount
U.S.citizenhavingamealinParisPayingthemealwithAmericanExpress
GifttoparentsinBombay
Receiptsofthecheckbyparents(goodwill)
Exportofprogrammingservice
BritishpaymentoutitsaccountinU.S.
ConstructthebalanceofpaymenttableforJapanfortheyearof1998whichiscomparableinformattoExhibit3.1,andinterpretthenumericaldata.YoumayconsultInternationalFinancialStatisticspublishedbyIMForresearchforusefulwebsitesforthedatayourself.
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Answer:
AsummaryoftheJapaneseBalanceofPaymentsfor1998(in$billion)
CurrentAccount
(1)Exports
(1.1)Merchandise
(1.2)Services
(2)Imports
-516.50
(2.1)Merchandise
-251.66
(2.2)Services
-111.83
(3.3)Factorincome
-153.01
(1.3)Factorincome
(3)Unilateraltransfer
Balanceoncurrentaccount[(1)+(2)+(3)]
Credits
646.03
374.04
62.41
209.58
5.53
120.69
Debits
-14.37
CapitalAccount
(4)Directinvestment
3.27
-24.62
(5)Portfolioinvestment
73.70
-113.73
(5.1)Equitysecurities
16.11
-14.00
(5.2)Debtsecurities
57.59
-99.73
(6)Otherinvestment
39.51
-109.35
Balanceonfinancialaccount[(4)+(5)+(6)]
Statisticaldiscrepancies
OverallbalanceOfficialReserveAccount
4.36
6.17
-131.22
-6.17
Source:IMF,InternationalFinancialStatisticsYearbook,1999.
Note:Capitalaccountintheabovetablecorresponds withthe‘Financialaccount’inIMF’s balanceofpaymentstatistics.IMF’sCapitalaccount’isincludedin‘Otherinvestment’intheabovetable.
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MINICASE:MEXICO’SBALANCEOFPAYMENTSPROBLEM
Recently,Mexicoexperiencedlarge-scaletradedeficits,depletionofforeignreserveholdingsmajorcurrencydevaluationinDecember1994,followedbythedecisiontofreelyfloatthepeso.TheventsalsobroughtaboutasevererecessionandhigherunemploymentinMexico.Sincethedevaluathowever,thetradebalancehasimproved.
InvestigatetheMexicanexperiencesindetailandwriteareportonthesubject.Inthereport
may:
documentthetrendinMexico’skeyeconomicindicatorss,uchasthebalanceofpayments,theexchangerate,andforeignreserveholdings,duringtheperiod1994.1through1995.12.;
investigatethecausesofMexico’sbalanceofpaymentsdifficultiedsevparliuoartitoon;thepeso
discusswhatpolicyactionsmighthavepreventedormitigatedthebalanceofpaymentsproblemthesubsequentcollapseofthepeso;and
derivelessonsfromtheMexicanexperiencethatmaybeusefulforotherdevelopingcountries.Inyourreport,youmayidentifyandaddressanyotherrelevantissuesconcerningMexico’sbalancpaymentproblem.
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SuggestedSolutiontoMexico’sBalance-of-PaymentsProblem
Tosolvethiscase,itisusefultoreviewChapter2,especiallythesectionontheMexicanpesocrisis.DespitethefactthatMexicohadexperiencedcontinuoustradedeficitsuntilDecember1994,thecountry’scurrencywasnotallowedtodepreciateforpoliticalreasons.TheMexicangovernmentdidnotwantthepesodevaluationbeforethePresidentialelectionheldin1994.IftheMexicanpesohadbeenallowedtograduallydepreciateagainstthemajorcurrencies,thepesocrisiscouldhavebeenprevented.
The
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