房地产市场的外在因素

ExternalFactorinRealEstateMarkets

房地产市场的外在因素AssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram博士,副教授马里兰大学城市规划系马里兰大学城市理性增长国家中心总裁特别助理林肯土地政策研究院中国项目部Outline大纲ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地产市场的外在因素 HighestandBestPrinciple 最高与最佳原则ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社会和经济力量的影响ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets

房地产市场的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis

区域与社区分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis

邻里单元价值分析4.LandUsePlanning

土地利用规划

PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影响价值Propertyrightsandownership财产权和所有权ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美国第五和第十四修正案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols联邦财政补助和财政控制Rateofinterests利率ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社会和经济力量的影响SocialForcesinfluencingValue社会因素影响价值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增长率（时间与空间）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住房/千人）ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社会和经济力量的影响

GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影响价值的经济因素Grossnationalproduct国民生产总值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和实际收入水平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性Personalsavingandinvestments个人存款和投资Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商业和地产活动StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue国家和区域因素影响价值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差异Differentialsofeconomicprospective经济远景差异etc.等等GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket

房地产市场中的政府手段Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行为如何影响房地产价值并促其变化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle监控市场行为以排序发展次序，减缓涨跌循环Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用，其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地产价值Abilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服务能力影响价值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警预防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue从事商务活动的方便性影响价值Propertytaxrate房地产税率Regulatoryenvironment政策规范环境Liquorlicense酒精饮料销售许可Zoningrequirements分区要求LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地产价值Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周围环境等外在因素影响环境Noisefromairports机场噪声Pollutionfromfactories工厂污染MonitoringLandMarketActivity

监控土地市场活动Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目标在于防止建设过度而导致空置、蚀本和经济衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓励商业开发以增加房地产税基数和促进经济发展MonitoringLandMarketActivity监控控土土地地市市场场活活动动PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策策工工具具：：开开发发次次序序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace规划划师师审审查查规规划划方方案案，，仅仅审审批批那那些些市市场场可可以以消消化化的的建建设设Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans––gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns规划师采采用传统统方式——收集租金金数据，，空置率率，建设设现状，，就业率率增长和和消费模模式——来估计市市场形势势TheRealEstateMarket房地产市市场Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破坏坏性non-homogeneity异质性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地产的的差异性性形成了了特殊的的市场条条件durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地产的的持续性性导致对对地方市市场供求求的不当当调整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成成房地产产供求的的潜在力力量2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社社区分析析CauseofUrbanization城市化的的结果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空间间形态和和增长RegionalAnalysis区域分析析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis区域分析析方法：：经济基基础分析析，区域域投入产产出分析析PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趋势势和特征征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社区增长长的经济济量化LandUsePattern土地利用用模式RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域和社社区分析析NeighborhoodDefined邻里的定定义TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle邻里单元元的周期期3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元元价值分分析NeighborhoodCharacteristics邻里单元元的特征征Physicalfeatures物质特征征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征征Economicinfluences经济影响响3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元元价值分分析4.LandUsePlanning—Zoning土地利用用规划——分区Density密度Use使用Intensity强度Location区位UrbanBidRentAgriculturalRentDistancefromCenterPeriodIIIPeriodIII:DemolitionDensityControl--FloorAreaRatio密度控制制——容积率CBDUrbanEdge$PeriodIPeriodIIPeriodIII:UrbanRedevelopmentWhatwillhappentotherelationbetweenlandvalueandbuildingvalueifbuildingheightlimitisimposed?WoB.H.L.WB.H.L.LandUseRightsintheUnitedStates美国土地地使用权权Landamarketablecommodity土地是可可交易商商品Bundleofsticks权利束Usedeterminedbyhigherbidder.最高报价价者决定定使用Stateshaverightstocontrollandusetoprotecthealth,safety,morals,andwelfare州政府府有权权控制制土地地使用用以保保护健健康、、安全全、道道德和和福利利。Moststatesdelegateauthoritytolocalgovernments.多数州州下放放权利利至地地方政政府ObjectivesofZoning分区的的目的的ControlExternalities控制形形态ProtectFarmland保护农农田ComplementInfrastructure完善基基础设设施Maximizetaxbase最大化化税收收基数数PreserveCommunityCharacter保护社社区个个性Excludetheunwanted消除闲闲置土土地AllowableUseZoningandUrbanLandMarkets允许使使用的的分区区和城城市土土地市市场Landallocationdeterminedbymarketforcesintheabsenceofzoning.没有分分区规规划时时土地地资源源分配配由市市场决决定Marketallocationcanbeimperfectinthepresenceofexternalities在外部部效应应存在在的情情形下下，市市场场分配配结果果有缺缺陷Zoningcanbeusedtocorrectexternalitiesortomisguideawell-functioningmarket.分区规规划可可以纠纠正外外部效效应或或者误误导运运作良良好的的市场场Landpricescanbeusedtodetermineifzoninghasimpacts.土地价价格可可以用用于决决定是是否分分区规规划对对房地地产产产生影影响Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandTotallandRcRrRc*Rr*Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRc’Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRr*Rc*DensityZoningandUrbanLandMarkets密度分分区和和城市市土地地市场场Landrentgradientsw/odensityzoning没有密密度分分区时时的土土地租租金梯梯度Landrentgradientsw/densityzoning有密度度分区区时的的土地地租金金梯度度Thepriceeffectsofdensityzoning密度分分区的的价格格影响响Thewelfareeffectsofdensityzoning密度分分区的的福利利影响响HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高与与最好好使用用原则则Concepts概念Presentvalue现在价价值Amortization分期偿偿还Value,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)价值，，资金金率和和租金金（净净收益益——租金））Futurevalue(=0)未来价价值2.Highestandbestuseanalysis最高与与最佳佳使用用分析析HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与与最好好分析析Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland闲置土地的的最高与最最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已开发土地地的最高与与最佳原则则HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高与最好好分析Fourcriteria:四项条件：：Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.物质上可行行：尺寸，，形态，地地形，容量量，服务设设施等Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.法律上允许许：限制，，分区，建建筑规范，，环境规则则和其他法法律Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.经济上可行行：如果项项目产出等等于或大于于投入Maximallyproductive.最大生产率率Apartment OfficeRetail公寓办办公零零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000 $817,300建设投资Effectivegrossincome有效毛收入入$265,000$200,000 $180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000运营费用--------------------------------------------$130,000 $120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot闲置土地的的最高与最最佳使用ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000-$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000Apartment OfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000 $109,000 $96,000Incometosite$10,000 $11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10% $100,000 $110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesiteHighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地产更新新的最高与与最佳原则则Thealternativesare不同方案:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000更新现存商商店，花2万美元Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000改成办公，，花4万Demolishandconstructanewbuilding.拆除，建设设新办公楼楼ExistingDemolish,UseConverted Construct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice $200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000 $40,0000Constructioncost0 0$700,000Demolishcost00 $30,000Totalcosts$220,000 $240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.ExistingDemolish,UseConverted Construct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000 $160,000 $0Newconstruction20,00040,