宏观经济学发展史课件

宏观经济学发展史宏观经济学发展史ClassicalEconomicsDatesbacktothelate1700s.RootedinthelaissezfairewritingsofAdamSmith,DavidRicardo,andJeanBaptisteSay.ClassicalEconomicsDatesbackClassicalEconomicsUnemploymentisanaturalpartofthebusinesscycle.Theeconomyisself-correcting.Mostimportant,thereisnoneedforthegovernmenttointervene.ClassicalEconomicsUnemploymenTheClassicalEconomists

MeettheGreatDepressionTheClassicalEconomists

MeetTheGreatDepressionThestockmarketcrashesin1929.GrossDomesticProductfellbyalmostathirdbetween1929and1933.25%oftheworkforcewasunemployed.Businessinvestmentfellfromabout$16billionin1929to$1billionby1933.TheGreatDepressionThestockTheBirthofKeynesianEconomicsTheBirthofKeynesianEconomiTheKeynesianViewJohnMaynardKeynesflatlyrejectedtheClassicalnotionofaself-correctingeconomyandwarnedthatpatientlywaitingfortheeventualrecoverywasfruitlessbecause“inthelongrun,we’realldead.”TheKeynesianViewJohnMaynardTheKeynesianViewKeynesbelievedthatundercertaincircumstances,theeconomywouldnotnaturallyrebound反弹butsimplystagnate淤塞or,evenworse,fallintoadeathspiral漩涡.TheKeynesianViewKeynesbelieTheKeynesianCureToKeynes,theonlywaytogettheeconomymovingagainwastoprime注入theeconomicpump泵withincreasedgovernmentexpenditures.Thus,fiscalpolicywasbornandtheKeynesianprescriptionbecametheunderlyingofFranklinDelanoRoosevelt’sNewDeal.TheKeynesianCureToKeynes,tTheKennedyTaxCutIn1962,HellerrecommendedtoKennedythatthePresidentadvocatealargetaxcuttostimulatethesluggish偷懒的缓慢的economy.Congresseventuallyagreed,andthisKeynesiantaxcuthelpedmakethe1960soneofthemostprosperous繁荣decadesinAmerica.TheKennedyTaxCutIn1962,HTheFoundationofStagflationThisfiscalstimuluslaidthefoundationfortheemergenceofstagflation–simultaneoushighinflationandhighunemployment.TheFoundationofStagflationTTheRootsofStagflationThestagflationproblemhaditrootsinPresidentLyndonJohnson’sstubbornness顽固的.TheRootsofStagflationThestTheRootsofStagflationInthelate1960s,againstthestrongadviceofhiseconomicadvisors,JohnsonincreasedexpendituresontheVietnamWarbutrefusedtocutspendingonhisGreatSocietysocialwelfareprograms.Thisrefusalhelpedspawnavirulent剧毒的种子“demandpull”inflation.TheRootsofStagflationIntheDemand-PullInflationTheessenceofdemand-pullinflationis“toomuchMoneychasingtoofewgoods,”andthatexactlywhathappenedwhentheU.S.triedtofinanceboth“gunsandbutter”--boththeVietnamWarandtheGreatSociety.Demand-PullInflationTheessenDemand-PullInflationPricelevelRealGDPPQEPQADASE'P'Q'AD'PotentialOutputDemand-PullInflationPricelevCost-PushInflationCost-pushorsupplysideinflationoccurswhenfactorssuchasrapidincreasesinrawmaterialpricesorwageincreasesdriveupproductioncosts.Thiscanhappenasaresultofso-called“supplyshocks”suchasthoseexperiencedintheearly1970s.Duringthisperiodsuchshocksincludedcropfailures,aworldwidedrought,andaquadrupling四倍的oftheworldpriceofcrudeoil.Cost-PushInflationCost-pushoCost-PushInflationPricelevelRealGDPPQADASAS'PotentialOutputEPQE'P'Q'Cost-PushInflationPricelevelABuddingParadox悖论的萌芽Priortothe1970s,economistsdidn’tbelieveyoucouldevenhavebothhighinflationandhighunemploymentatthesametime.Ifonewentup,theotherhadtogodown.Butthe1970sprovedeconomistswrongonthispointandlikewiseexposedKeynesianeconomicsasincapableofsolvingthenewstagnationproblem.ABuddingParadox悖论的萌芽PriortoTheKeynesianDilemmaUsingexpansionarypoliciestoreduceunemploymentsimplycreatedmoreinflationwhileusingcontractionarypoliciestocurb制止inflationonlydeepenedtherecession.ThatmeantthatthetraditionalKeynesiantoolscouldsolveonlyhalfofthestagflationproblematanyonetime--andonlybymakingtheotherhalfworse.TheKeynesianDilemmaUsingexpTheRiseofMonetarismItwasthisinabilityofKeynesianeconomicstocopewith应对stagflationthatsetthestageforProfessorMiltonFriedman’sMonetaristchallengetowhathadbecometheKeynesianorthodoxy正统学说.TheRiseofMonetarismItwastFriedman’sMonetaristSchoolTheproblemsofbothinflationandrecessionmaybetracedtoonething--therateofgrowthofthemoneysupply.Inflationhappenswhenthegovernmentprintstoomuchmoneyandrecessionshappenwhenitprintstoolittle.Friedman’sMonetaristSchoolThTheMonetaristPerspectiveStagflationistheinevitable不可避免的resultofactivistfiscalandmonetarypoliciesthattrytopushtheeconomybeyonditsso-called“naturalrate”or,moretechnically,its“lowestsustainableunemploymentrate.”TheMonetaristPerspectiveStagThisnaturalrateofunemploymentisthelowestlevelofunemploymentthatcanbeattainedwithoutupwardpressureoninflation.AccordingtotheMonetarists,expansionaryattemptstogobeyondthislowestsustainableunemploymentratemayresultinshortrunspurts迸发ofgrowth.However,aftereachgrowthspurt,pricesandwagesriseanddragtheeconomybacktoitsnaturalrateofunemployment.ThisnaturalrateofunemploymSomeBitterMedicine苦方Overtime,thesefutile无意的无效的attemptstopushtheeconomybeyonditsnaturalrateleadtoanupwardinflationaryspiral.Inthissituation,Monetaristsbelievethattheonlywaytowringinflationandinflationaryexpectationsoutoftheeconomyistohavetheactualunemploymentrateriseabovethenaturalrateofunemploymentandthatmeansinducingarecession.SomeBitterMedicine苦方OvertimInducingaRecessionThisisatleastoneinterpretationofwhattheFederalReservedidbeginningin1979undertheMonetaristbannerofsettingmonetarygrowthtargets.UnderChairmanPaulVolcker,theFedadoptedasharplycontractionarymonetarypolicyandinterestratessoared高扬提高toovertwentypercent.InducingaRecessionThisisatWhiletheFed’sbittermedicineworked,threeyearsofhardeconomictimesleftabittertasteinthemouthsoftheAmericanpeoplenowhungryforasweetermacroeconomiccurethaneithertheKeynesiansorMonetaristscouldoffer.Enterstageright:supplysideeconomics.ASweeterEconomicCureWhiletheFed’sbittermedicinTheComingofRonaldReaganCutTaxesIncreaseGovernmentTaxRevenuesAcceleratetheRateofEconomicGrowthWITHOUTInducingInflationTheComingofRonaldReaganCutTheSupplySidePhilosophyOnthesurface,thesupplysideapproachlooksverysimilartothekindofKeynesiantaxcutprescribedinthe1960stostimulateasluggisheconomy.However,thesupplysidersviewedsuchtaxcutsfromaverydifferentbehavioralperspective.TheSupplySidePhilosophyOntTheBehavioralDifferenceKeynesianismTaxCutIncreasedDemandforGoodsProducersmayincreasepricesPossibleInflationTheBehavioralDifferenceTheBehavioralDifferenceSupplySideEconomicsKeynesianismTaxCutIncreasedDemandforGoodsProducersmayincreasepricesPossibleInflationWorkerskeepmoreofwhattheyearnIndividualsworkharderandincreasetheirproductivityIncreasedOutputandEmploymentShiftstheSupplyCurveOutTheBehavioralDifferenceALowerBudgetDeficitThelossintaxrevenuesfromthetaxcutwouldbelessthanoffsetbytheincreaseintaxrevenuesfromincreasedeconomicgrowth.Thus,undersupplysideeconomics,thebudgetdeficitwouldactuallybereduced.ALowerBudgetDeficitThelossTheEndResultUnfortunately,thatdidn’thappen.Whiletheeconomyboomedso,too,didAmerica’sbudgetdeficit.Andasthebudgetdeficitsoared,America’stradedeficitsoaredwithit.TheEndResultUnfortunately,tGeorgeBush’sBurdenTheseso-called“twindeficits”deeplyconcernedReagan’ssuccessorGeorgeBush,particularlyafterthebudgetdeficitjumpedover$200billionatthemidpointofhistermin1990,andtheeconomybegantoslideintorecession.ToKeynesians,thisrecessionwouldhavebeenaclearsignaltoengageinexpansionarypolicy.However,intheBushWhiteHouse,Reagan’sSupplySideadvisorshadbeensupplanted代替byso-called“NewClassicals.”

GeorgeBush’sBurdenTheseso-cNewClassicalEconomicsNewClassicaleconomicsisbasedonthecontroversial有争议的theoryof“rationalexpectations.”Thistheorysaysthatifyouformyourexpectations“rationally,”youwilltakeintoaccountallavailableinformationincludingthefutureeffectsofactivistfiscalandmonetarypolicies.NewClassicalEconomicsNewClaRationalExpectationsTheideabehindrationalexpectationsisthatsuchactivistpoliciesmightbeabletofoolpeopleforawhile.However,afterawhile,peoplewilllearnfromtheirexperiences,andthenyoucan’tfoolthematall.Thecentralpolicyimplicationofthisideaisprofound:rationalexpectationsrenderactivistfiscalandmonetarypoliciescompletelyineffectivesotheyshouldbeabandoned.理性预期使财政和货币政策完全失效RationalExpectationsTheideaSomeBadPoliticsWe’lltalkmoreaboutwhetherthistheoryisgoodeconomicsornotinalaterlesson,butitwasclearlybadpolitics–atleastforPresidentBush.Indeed,Bush’sNewClassicaladvisorsflatlyrejectedanyKeynesian“quickfix”tothedeepeningrecession.Instead,theycalledformore“stableandsystematic”policiesbasedonlongtermgoalsratherthanacontinuedrelianceon“short-sighteddiscretionary随意的reactions.”

SomeBadPoliticsWe’lltalkmoTheEconomyStupidTheEconomyStupidRestoredConfidenceWhatisperhapsmostinterestingaboutthistransitionofpoweristhatBillClintonactuallydidverylittletostimulatetheeconomy.Themerefact,however,thatClintonpromisedamoreactivistapproachhelpedrestorebusinessandconsumerconfidence.RestoredConfidenceWhatisperAtthesametime,CongressionalpassageofClinton’sdeficitreductionlegislationin1993sentWallStreetaclearsignalthathisAdministrationwasseriousaboutbudgetbalance.Together,thesefactorshelpedacceleratearecoverythathadalreadybegunbytheendofBush’sterm.ThesefactorsalsosetthestageforClinton’sremarkablyeasyre-electionin1996aswellasthelongesteconomicrecoveryinpeacetimehistory.Atthesametime,CongressionaOntheBrightSideAsweenteranewmillennium千年,th