气候变化与水资源

ClimateChangeandWater:

Impacts&ManagementNeeds

气候变化与水资源：

影响与管理需求

RogerCalow

WaterPolicyProgramme,ODI罗杰Overview

概述Thebigpicture概括Irrigation–surfacewatersystems灌溉—地表水系统3.Irrigation-groundwatereconomies灌溉—地下水节约4.Conclusions总结Themostvulnerable?

最脆弱群体？Driversofchange&managementchallenges

变化动因&管理挑战Majordrivers?主要动因？…urbanisation,industrialisation,consumption...withclimatechangeoverlayAwater‘crisis’?水危机？…whogetswhat(Q,Q,R)inavariableclimate:farmsvscities,upstreamvsdownstream,environmentalvshumanAdaptationchallenge?适应挑战？…mediatingbetweencompetingclaims:rangeofdifferentscalesAgriculturalfutures?农业未来？...agriculturewilllosewater.How?Impactsonpoorerhouseholds?Agriculture&irrigation

农业&灌溉Twostories:Surfacewaterirrigation(IDs)Development-statesponsored,drivenManagement-increasinglycommercialGroundwaterirrigationMorerecent,increasinglyfarmer-led&opportunisticBoreholes1949(0)–today(>5M)...concentratedinwaterscarcenorthControllability,affordability...impactsWaterwithdrawalsinHebeibysector,1990–2003

河北省分部门采水量Source:HebeiprovincialWRDStatisticalYearbooksYellowRiverflows1956-2000

黄河水流量Prov.QHSCGSNXIMSASAHNSDHBTotAlloc.1.40.13.04.05.93.84.35.57.02.037YellowRiverAllocationPlan（billionm3）WaterallocationintheYellowRiverBasin黄河流域水资源配给Permit1HangjinID:0.41bcmPermits2&3HetaoID:4.77bcmDefinedundertheYRCC’sWaterAllocationPlan(longterm)andadjustedunderAnnualRegulationPlans(annual)Definingandprotectingfarmers’rights?Irrigationdiversion灌溉Waterallocation–basintohousehold

水资源分配—从流域到用户BasinAllocationAgreementProvinceQHSCGSNXIMSAASAHNSDHBTotalAlloc.14.10.430.440.058.638.043.155.470.020.0370HangjinIrrigationDistrict280GL（abstraction)HetaoIrrigationDistrictAbstractionpermitsWaterUserAssociationsWaterUserAssociationsChannelLossesOtherusersGroupwaterentitlementsWatercertificatesHouseholdHouseholdHangjin-channellining

夯井—分渠灌溉Channelliningandwatertransfer:

winners…andlosers?

分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？MuganBalahaiJiansheGrosspermitbeforetrading410mcmReturnflowbeforetrading35mcmSavingaftertrading130mcmReturnflowaftertrading35mcmGrossdiversionaftertrading280mcmWaterPermitof5860mcmWaterdivertedbeforetrading375mcmWaterdivertedaftertrading245mcmKeymessages–IDs&watertransfers

关键点—IDs与水资源配给IrrigationwilllosemarketshareSupplywillfluctuate...variabilitywillincreaseDeepeningrightsreform(basintofarmer)willgrowinimportanceProtectingtheinterestsofpoorerhouseholdsaswaterisreallocatedwilldependon:Informalclaims(WUAs,contracting)Soundscience–basinefficiencies,consumptiverightsWillingnesstorecogniseeffectson‘3rdparties’&environmentalflows‘Water&AgriculturalManagementinHebei’

河北省水资源与农业管理TotalwaterwithdrawalsinBashangcounties,1995–2005

坝上县水资源抽取总量01000200030004000500060007000SurfacewaterGroundwaterSurfacewaterGroundwaterSurfacewaterGroundwater199520002005YearWithdrawal(m3x103)ZhangbeiGuyuanShangyiKangbaoSource:personalcommunication,ZhangjiakouCityWaterAffairsBureau2005.GroundwaterlevelchangesrecordedforthreeBashangcounties,2003–2005

地下水水位变化记录Source:ZhangjiakouCityWaterAffairsBureau,2006.PredictedgroundwaterleveldeclinesintheBashang

可预测地下水位下降情况Source:WAMH2004.Note:drawdownmodelledovera10yearperiodbasedon2003estimatesofgroundwaterabstractionandrecharge.IrrigationdevelopmentandcontrolareasintheBashangControlareas-welldrillingintheBashang

控制区—井水抽取Groundwatermanagementchallenge

地下水管理挑战CountryAnnualgroundwateruse(km3)No.ofgroundwaterstructures(million)Extraction/structure(m3/year)%ofpopulationdependentongroundwaterIndia185-200209,000-10,00055-60Pakistan450.590,00060-65China753.521,50022-25Iran290.558,00012-18Mexico290.07414,2855-6USA1100.2555,000<1-2Source:Shah,2004WUAs"asInthelong-term:长期

Scale-uptoreducefree-ridingTiequotastovariablesharesofaquifersafeyieldProgress:进展SharedallocationsConservationincentivesDevolvedmanagementAfarmeconomy?农业经济？Shiftinglivelihoods

生活水平变化Ruraljobs–RNFE,migrationRuralincomes–diverse,dispersedDependenceonCPRs-decliningDriversofchange–smallpush,bigpullSourcesofvulnerability–incomeshocksNatureofcommunity–boundariesblurringRuraldevelopmentnarrative–income,employmentVulnerablearelockedintothe‘old’economy

Keymessages–protectinghighvalueaquifers&services

主要信息—保护高价值地下蓄水层&服务Groundwateraccess–keyroleinpovertyreductionButmonitoringpatchy,numbersuncertain,impactsofclimatechangeunclearProtectingtheinterestsofpoorerhouseholdswilldependon:ExtendingaccesstoGWirrigationPrioritisingdomesticwaterProtectingkeyreservesAdifferentapproachtomanagement…devolvingtasksandfunctions…supportedbysoundscienceAdaptation&de