J.P. 摩根-全球制药业：2021年美国特应性皮炎调查要点

RichardVosserAC

(44-20)7742-6652

richard.vosser@

JamesDGordon

(44-20)7742-6654

james.d.gordon@

LaerkeLEngkilde

(44-20)7742-2917

laerke.enkilde@

CoryKasimovAC

212-622-5266

cory.w.kasimov@

GavinScott

212-622-0579

gavin.scott@

TurnerKufe,MD

212-622-4104

Turner.kufe@

GlobalEquityResearch

April2021

Takeaways

GlobalBioPharma–2021USAtopicDermSurvey

EUPharma&Biotech

USBiotechnology

USMajor&SpecialtyPharma

ChristopherSchott,CFAAC

212-622-5676

christopher.t.schott@

ChristopherNeyor

212-622-0334

christopher.z.neyor@

EkaterinaV.Knyazkova

212-622-9576

ekaterina.v.knyazkova@

XilingChen

212-622-0364

xiling.chen@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

J.P.MorganSecuritiesPLC

Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

1

KeyProductTakeaways

1Dupixent:Surveypointstocontinuedgrowthacrossadults,adolescentsandpediatricsbutwithadoptionandgrowth

stillskewedtoadults.JAKsseenhavinglimitedimpactonuse.

1Adults:Respondentsindicatea8ppincreaseinuseto33%ofalladultpatientswithinthenext3yearssupportingastronggrowthoutlookforDupixentinadults.AhigherproportionofdermatologistsconsiderDupixentuseinmoderatepatientscomparedtoour2020survey,potentiallypointingtoabroadeningoftheopportunity.

1Adolescents:Adolescentprescribinglagscurrentuseinadults(14%vs.25%ofpatients),andthesurveypoints3ppofincreaseduseinadolescentswithinthenext3years

1Pediatrics:Asexpected,physiciansaremostcautiousinpediatrics,with64%indicatingtheywouldonlyconsiderDupixentuseinseverepatientsvs.36%foradolescentsand12%foradults.Evensodermatologistsstillexpecttoincreaseuseinthenext3yearsto11%ofallpediatricpatients.

1JAKsimpact:DermatologistsseealimitedimpacttotheirDupixentuse3yearsaftertheapprovalofJAKs.

1JAKs:Viewedpredominantlyas2Ltherapiesalbeitwithasizablemarketopportunity.Rinvoqpreferredchoiceoverabrocitinib

1MostphysiciansseeJAKSofferingsuperiorefficacybalancedagainstinferiorsafetyrelativetoDupixentandexpecttousethemprimarilyas2LbiologicagentsfollowingtopicalsandDupixent.Thatsaid,~25%ofphysicianexpecttomovetheseagentsto1Lovertimeastheygainexperiencewiththeproducts.

1Onsafety,physiciansappearsomewhatconcernedwithclottingriskassociatedwiththeJAKclass,whichisnotsurprisinggiventherecentheightenedconcernsonsafety.

1OnRinvoqvsabrocitinib,physicianshaveapreferenceforRinvoqbasedonbetterefficacyandsomewhatcleanersafety.Payercoveragewillalsoplayaroleinuptake(whichshouldfavorRinvoq)

1OnthehigherdosevslowdoseRinvoqdebate,oursurveypointstoaverylimitedimpacttoexpectedshareintheeventofjusta15mgapproval(notaltogethersurprisinggivenexpecteduseinDupixentfailures).Inaddition,mostrespondents(80%)donotseethesingletreatment-emergentdeathforRinvoqinitsH2HstudywithDupixentimpactingtheirprescribingdecisions

1Ontopicalruxolitinib,highratesofutilizationbyphysiciansareexpectedacrossalldiseaseseveritiesforbothpediatricandadultpopulations(slides34)

1Docsareenthusiasticaboutthepotentialfortopicalruxandseeutilizationacrossthespectrum(mild/moderate/severe)ofbothadultandpediatricpatients.Suggesteduseintheseverepopulation(andevenoversystemicagents)issomewhatpeculiarasithasnotbeenstudiedinthissubset.

2

KeyCompanyTakeaways

ABBV:SurveyhighlightsanattractiveopportunityforRinvoqasthepreferredoralJAKtherapyandawithbetterthan

expectedviewonlow-doseonlyapprovalscenario

1WithRinvoqemergingasthepreferredoralJAKinthissettingandafairlysizable2Lopportunityovertime,weseeADasanattractivenewindicationforthedrug.

1Further,asmostphysicianseea15mgonlyapprovalunlikelytoimpacttheirprescriptionchoice,weseeanupwardbiastoourestimates(~$1.5bnpeaksalesinADwith15mgapprovalasabasecaseandbothdoseapprovalasclearupside)

1Allinall,wecontinuetoseeAtopicDermasanimportantindicationforRinvoqsupportingour~$12bnpeaksalesestimatefortheproduct

PFE:ResultslargelyinlinewithexpectationswithabrocitinibupsidelargelytiedtooverallgrowthoftheADmarket

1WeseesurveyresultslargelyconsistentwithourexpectationswithrespondentsgenerallyexpectingtouseoralJAKsas2LtreatmentandpreferringRinvoqoverabrocitinib.Thesedynamicsarelargelyreflectedinourestimateswhereweforecast~$900mmsalesfortheproductin2025

1Atthesametime,wehighlightthatatopicdermremainsasignificantlyunder-penetratedindicationandexpectsolidbiologicmarketgrowthtosupportsolidgrowthforbothabrocitinibandRinvoqoverthenextfewyearsastheseneweragentsexpandthemarket

SAN:SurveycontinuestohighlightstronggrowthoutlookforDupixentinADacrossallagegroups.

1Respondentshighlighttheyexpecttocontinuetoincreasetheiruse,overthenext3years,ofDupixentinallagecategories(adultsby>30%,adolescentsby20%andpediatricsby>50%).ThisunderpinsourcurrentDupixentUSforecasts,whichweforecasttogrowfrom$3.2bnin2020to$6.5bnin2023,a20-23CAGRofc.26%.Thiscomprisesc.80%ofourglobalDupixent2023salesforecastof$8.2bn(€7.4bn),whichisc.7%aheadofConsensus.Inaddition,theexpectationofalimitedimpactfromtheJAKinhibitorsshouldprovideinvestorswithincreasedconfidenceSanofi’sabilitytoachieveorevenexceedtheir€10bnpeaksalestargetforDupixent.OverallthesurveyreinforcesourbeliefthatDupixentwillcontinuetodeliveraheadofexpectations.

3

KeyCompanyTakeaways

REGN:OverallthesurveysupportsastrongoutlookforDupiinADwhichdoesn’tcomeasasurprise;ultimatelythelongterm

questionishowbigisbig?

1Weanticipatedafavorablephysicianoutlookfordupi,andthat’sconsistentwiththeresultsobserved.Whilethere’ssomelingeringnoisearoundpotentialcompetitionfromJAKs–atleastbasedonourinvestorconversations–physiciansaren’tindicatingameaningfulthreatinthenear-to-midterm.

1Wecurrentlymodel~$10BinpeakWWsalesfordupi.Theadultsegmentcomprises~63%ofourWWdupiestimatesin2021andweexpectalineardeclineto~51%in2025asadolescent/pedsgainshareintheintermediate-to-longterm.

1MorebroadlyforREGN,mostscrutinyisaroundEylea’stail,themid-to-longertermoutlookforREGN-COVantibodycocktailandthepotentialofthecompany’semergingoncologyfranchise.Webelievetheseissueshavemorepotentialtodriveinvestorsentiment,asthere’slittleprevailingcontroversyarounddupi.

INCY:AnticipatingfavorableuptakeforruxcreaminADinbothadultandadolescentpatients,potentiallyacrossthespectrumofdiseaseseverity

1WeanticipateruxcreamtobeakeyleverinINCY’sdrivetodiversify(fromJakafi)andgrowtheoverallbusiness.Tothatend2QisshapingupasanimportantperiodwiththeanticipatedapprovalofthetopicalproductforatopicdermatitisaswellasPhase3dataforvitiligo.Whilebotheventsarebroadlyanticipatedtohavefavorableoutcomes,itshouldgenerateincreasingattentionforthisasset.

1Importantly,thissurveysuggestsahighlevelofphysicianenthusiasmandpotentiallybroaderthananticipatedutilization.Wetakeanticipatedmarketsharedatapointsfromtheseexerciseswithagrainofsalt,butthetrendsareclearlyfavorable.Furthermore,amajorityofdocs(52%)evensuggestuseofruxcreamoversystemicagentsinmoderate-to-severepatients,despitenopivotaldatainthispatientsubset.

4

SurveyBackground

5

%breakdownofADpatients

SurveyBackground:MixOfPrivate/GroupPracticeinNon-HospitalSettings

1SurveywaslaunchedonApril9,2021.

1Enrollmentcriteria:Respondentsweredermatologistswith>15adultatopicdermatitispatientsundertheircareandwerefamiliarwithDupixent,JAKinhibitorsandtopicalruxolitinib.

1Respondentcharacteristics:Respondentshadanaverageof538patientsundertheircare,comprising357adultpatients,83adolescentpatients(age12-17),57pediatricpatientsaged6-11and41pediatricpatientsaged<6.

1Samplesize:N=25

1SurveyDemographics:40%respondentswerefromaprivatepractice,28%wereatagrouppracticeand32%werefromanacademiccenter/teachinghospital

100%

80%

60%

40%

32%

40%

28%

20%

0%

Grouppractice,non-HospitalAcademiccenter/teachingPrivatepractice,non-Hospital

setting(2+physicians)hospitalsetting

n=25

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

6

Note:Listofalltheanswerscanbefoundintheappendix

AdultADMarketByPatientSeverity

Ofyouradultatopicdermatitispatients,whatpercentageofyourpatientsareclassifiedasmild,moderate,and

severe?

1WefirstaskedoursurveyrespondentsthebreakdownofadultADpatientstreatedbyseveritywith37%/39%/24%beingmild/moderate/severecomparedtoour2020surveyof40%/36%/24%mild/moderate/severe.

1Withinthesecategories,ourrespondentsindicatedthat16%mild(2020:13%),45%moderate(2020:28%),and74%ofseverepatients(2020:50%)havefailedtopicalsteroids.

1JPMView:Whiletheoveralltrendisconsistentwithourexpectationsandprevioussurveyresults,thephysiciansinthisyear’ssurveyreportahigher%failureratethaninour2020survey,particularlyinmoderateandseverecases.ThiscontinuestohighlighttheopportunityinADpost-topicaltherapyandcouldpointtoincreasingcomfortwithDupixent.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

WhattypeofadultADpatientsdoyouseeby

severity?

39%

37%

24%

MildModerateSevere

n=25

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

n=25

ForyouradultADpatients,whatpercentagehave

eachgrouphavefailedtopicaltreatments?

74%

45%

16%

Mild

Moderate

Severe

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

7

SurveyResults

(DupixentAdultPatients)

8

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0%

DupixentPrescribingByPatientSeverity

HowwouldyoudescribetheseverityofsymptomsrequiredtoconsidertreatmentwithDupixent?

1AllofourrespondentsrequiredmoderateorseveresymptomstoconsidertreatmentwithDupixentinatopicdermatitis.

1Comparedtolastyear’ssurvey,anincreasingnumberofrespondentsrequiredlessseveresymptomstostartDupixent,with88%ofrespondentsrequiringmoderatesymptoms(2020:64%),withabroadlycorrespondingreductioninthe%ofrespondentsrequiringseveresymptoms.

1JPMView:100%useinmoderate-severepatientsisbroadlyconsistentwithourexpectationsandourprevioussurvey,givenDupixent’scurrentlabelandhowdermatologiststypicallyviewsystemictreatments.Thehigherproportionofmoderatecases,relativetoseverecases,requiredtoconsiderDupixentuseispromisingasitsuggestsdermatologistsaremoreopentoconsideringDupixentuseearlieronindiseaseonset,broadeningtheoverallopportunity.

SeverityofsymptomsrequiredtoconsiderusingDupixent

2021SurveyResults

100%

88%

12%

Mild

Moderate

Severe

n=25

Source:J

.

P.MorganResearch

2020SurveyResults

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

64%

32%

4%

Mild

Moderate

Severe

n=25

9

2020SurveyResults

2021SurveyResults

31%

29%

25%

20%

0%

ContinuedGrowthforDupixentinAdultADExpected

Whatpercentage,ifany,ofyouradultatopicdermatitispatientsareyoucurrentlytreatingwithDupixentand

whatpercentage,ifany,doyouexpecttotreatwithDupixentoverthenext3years?

1Currentlyourrespondentsaretreating25%oftheiradultADpatientswithDupixent,whichisbroadlyconsistentwithoursurveyresultfromlastyearinwhichrespondentsexpectedtobetreating24%oftheirpatientswithin12months.

1Goingforward,thesedermatologistsexpecttoincreaseDupixentuseby8ppovera3yeartimeperiodtoatotalof33%.

1Dermatologists’viewonthesizeofthemarketopportunityaswellthepaceofgrowthhasincreasedsincelastyearwithatotalmarketopportunityof32%in2yearsfromnow(comparedto28%attheequivalenttimeinourpriorsurvey),anincreaseof7ppfromcurrentuse(comparedtoa4ppincreaseovertheequivalentperiodinthe2020survey).

1JPMView:Sinceourlastsurvey,dermatologistsseemtohavemoreconfidenceinthemarketopportunityforDupixent,expectingbothahigheroverallopportunityaswellasafasterramp.

%ofadultatopicdermatitispatientstreatedwithDupixent

100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

33%

40%

20%

0%

32%

40%

22%24%

17%

26%28%

Currently6monthsfrom12monthsfrom2yearsfrom3yearsfrom

nownownownow

Currently6monthsfrom12monthsfrom2yearsfromnow3yearsfromnow

nownow

n=25

n=25

Source:J.P.MorganResearch,Companydata.

10

SurveyResults

(DupixentAdolescentandPediatricPatients)

11

Adolescent&PediatricADMarketsByPatientSeverity

Ofyouradolescent/pediatricatopicdermatitispatients,whatpercentageofyourpatientsareclassifiedas

mild,moderate,andsevere?

1Weaskedoursurveyrespondentsthebreakdownofadolescent/pediatricADpatientstreatedbyseverity.44%/36%/20%ofadolescentsweremild/moderate/severecomparedto51%/32%/17%pediatrics.

1Withinthesecategories,ourrespondentsindicatedthat11%/28%/56%mild/moderate/severeadolescentpatientshavefailedtopicalsteroids,comparedto14%/27%/53%pediatricpatients.

1JPMView:Respondentshighlightasmallerproportionoftheiradolescentpatientshavemoderatetoseveredisease(56%),comparedtoadults(63%)withevenfewermoderatetoseverepediatricpatients(49%)asexpected.Thesurveyalsoconfirmsthelowerrateoftopicaltreatmentfailureinbothadolescentsandpediatricscomparedtoadultswhichisalsoin-linewithexpectations.

WhattypeofadolescentADpatientsdoyouseeby

severity?

44%

36%

20%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Mild

Severe

Moderate

100%80%60%40%20%0%

WhattypeofpediatricADpatientsdoyouseeby

severity?

51%

32%

17%

Mild

Moderate

Severe

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

100%80%60%40%20%0%

100%80%60%40%20%0%

12

ForyouradolescentADpatients,whatpercentagehaveeachgrouphavefailedtopicaltreatments?

56%

28%

11%

MildModerateSevere

ForyourpediatricADpatients,whatpercentagehaveeachgrouphavefailedtopicaltreatments?

53%

27%

14%

Mild

Moderate

Severe

60%

40%

20%

0%

0%

0%

DupixentPrescribingByPatientSeverity

HowwouldyoudescribetheseverityofsymptomsrequiredtoconsidertreatmentwithDupixent?

1Inadolescentsandpediatrics,allofourrespondentsrequiremoderate-to-severesymptomstoconsiderDupixent,though:

1.AhigherproportionofphysiciansonlyconsideringDupixentinseverecasesforadolescentsthaninadults(36%vs.12%)andthemajority(64%)onlyconsideringDupixentforseverecasesinpediatricpatients.

2.ComparedtopediatricpatientsphysiciansaremuchmorecomfortabletouseDupixentinmoderateadolescentpatients,potentiallypartlyastheyhavegreaterexperienceusingtheproductinthesepatients.

1JPMView:Thisisconsistentwithourexpectations,highlightingphysicians’attitudestowardssystemictherapyinyoungerpatients,particularlyinpediatrics,wheretheyaremorecautious.Intheadultpopulation,confidenceinusingDupixentinmoderatepatientshasincreasedinthelastyear,with88%consideringuseinmoderatepatientsinthisyear’ssurveycomparedto64%in2020.Webelievewecouldseeasimilartrendovertimeinadolescents(March2019

approval)andpotentiallyeveninthepediatricsetting(May2020approval).

SeverityofsymptomsrequiredtoconsiderusingDupixent

Adolescents

100%

80%

64%

36%

MildModerateSevere

n=25

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%n=25

13

Pediatrics

64%

36%

Mild

Severe

Moderate

BothAdolescent&PediatricADofferGrowthPotentialforDupixent

Whatpercentage,ifany,ofyouradolescentandpediatricatopicdermatitispatientsareyoucurrentlytreating

withDupixentandwhatpercentage,ifany,doyouexpecttotreatwithDupixentoverthenext3years?

1Currentlyourrespondentsaretreating14%oftheiradolescentADpatientswithDupixentand7%oftheirpediatricADpatients.Goingforward,thesephysiciansexpecttoincreaseDupixentuseby3ppovera3yeartimeperiodinadolescentsand4ppinpediatrics.

1JPMView:ItisnotsurprisingthatphysiciansexpecttouseDupixentlessinAdolescentsandlessstillinPediatricsthanAdultsgiventheirexperiencelevelinagegroup.SomewhatsurprisingisthelowergrowthanticipatedinAdolescentscomparedtoPediatricpatients.Wewouldexpectphysicianusetogrowwithtimeinboththeseagegroupsastheygainmorecomfortinusingtheproduct.

%atopicdermatitispatientstreatedwithDupixent

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

n=25

Adolescents

3pp

17%

16%

14%

15%

15%

Currently6monthsfrom12monthsfrom2yearsfrom3yearsfrom

nownownownow

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

n=25

Pediatrics

4pp

11%

10%

8%

7%6%

Currently6monthsfrom12monthsfrom2yearsfrom3yearsfrom

nownownownow

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

14

SurveyResults(Rinvoq/Abrocitinib)

15

PhysiciansSeeSafetyandEfficacyAsTopFactorstoConsiderForNew

Agents

Pleaseratethefollowingcharacteristicsonascaleofimportancefrom1to5,where1=relativelyLEAST

importantand5=relativelyMOSTimportant,whendecidingtoprescribeanewproductliketheseJAKsforthetreatmentofyouratopicdermpatients.

1Safety/tolerabilityandEfficacywerethemostimportantfactorforphysicianswhiledosingfrequency/formappearrelativelylessimportantwhentreatingatopicdermpatients.Wealsohighlightthatmajorityofphysicians(68%)considerprice/accesstobeamongtop2factorsintheirprescriptionprocess.

1JPMView:Thisresultislargelyinlinewithourexpectationswithsafetyrepresentingoneofthetopfactorsphysiciansconsiderwhileprescribinganewproductinthisindication(particularlygivenrecentheightenedconcernoversafetyoftheJAKclass).Thatsaid,withefficacyrepresentingaclosesecondfactor,wecontinuetoseeanopportunityforthesemoreefficaciousagenttoplayanimportantroleintheirtreatmentparadigmsforAD.

%rank4or5:100%100%68%56%36%

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.84.7

4.0

3.7

3.0

Safety/tolerabilityEfficacy

Price/Patientaccess

Dosingfrequency/form

Clinical

experience

16

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

PhysiciansSeesHigherEfficacyforJAKsBalancedAgainstInferiorSafety

vsDupixent

HowdoyouseethesenewJAKs'efficacyandsafetyprofilescomparedtoDupixent?

1WeaskedrespondentstorankRinvoqandabrocitinibagainstDupixentfrombothefficacyandsafetyperspective

1JPMView:Overall,theresultsarelargelyconsistentwithourexpectationswithmajorityofphysiciansnotingatleastmoderatelybetterefficacyforRinvoq/abrocitinibatbothdoses.Atthesametime(althoughunsurprisingly),thisisbalancedagainstmoderatelyinferiorsafetyforbothJAKproducts(withabrocitinibrankedmarginallyworsefromasafetyperspective)

100%

Efficacy(vsDupixent)

80%

100%80%60%40%20%

60%

36%

32%

32%32%

40%

28%

28%

28%0%

20%12%

16%

20%16%20%

12%

12%12%

8%

20%

8%

4%

4%4%

4%

8%

4%

0%

Rinvoq(15mg)Rinvoq(30mg)Abrocitinib(50mg)Abrocitinib(100mg)

100%

Safety(vsDupixent)

80%

52%

60%

44%

36%

28%24%

32%28%

40%

20%16%

20%

16%16%

20%

16%

20%

8%

4%4%

0%0%0%0%

8%4%

0%0%

4%

0%0%

Rinvoq(15mg)Rinvoq(30mg)Abrocitinib(50mg)Abrocitinib(100mg)

0%

n=25

Source:J.P.MorganResearch17

Significantlyinferior

Moderatelyinferior

Marginallyinferior

Aroundthesame

Marginallybetter

Moderatelybetter

Significantlybetter

AlongTheseLines,MajorityofPhysiciansSeesJAKsasa2LTreatment

OptionAfterDupixent

Whatroledoyouseetheseproductplayinginyourpracticeoverthenextseveralyears?

1Majorityofrespondents(80%)expecttousethesenewerJAKsasa2LtreatmentforpatientswhohavefailedtopicalsandDupixent.Thatsaid,aswelookahead,morephysiciansappearopentousingtheseasa1Ltreatment(~30%forRinvoqand~20%forabro)overthenext5yearsbasedonsuperiorefficacyprofile.

1JPMView:WeseetheseresultspointingtoJAKsasprimarily2Ltherapiesasphysiciansfamiliarizewiththeseneweragentsandgetcomfortablewiththeirrespectiverisk/benefitprofiles.Overtime,thereappearstobesomeinterestinmovingJAKs(particularlyRinvoq)upinthetreatmentparadigm(~25%ofdocs).WithlowoverallbiologicpenetrationintheADmarket,weanticipatealarge2LmarkettoevolvefortheJAKsovertimeevenif1LusageremainsprimarilywithDupixent.

100%80%60%40%20%0%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1.

4%

0%

68%

64%

28%

24%

12%

4%

0%

12%

4%

In1-3

years

4%

Within1year

In3-5years

80%

76%

Abrocitinib(Pfizer)

76%

12%

4%

12%

0%

20%

12%

0%

4%

Rinvoq(AbbVie)

80%

Within1

In1-3

year

years

In3-5years

Source:J.P.MorganResearch18

1Ltreatment(failedtopicals)

2Ltreatment(failedtopicalsandanotherbiologic)

Other

Idon'tforeseeusingthis

product

%breakdownofphysicians

PhysiciansHaveAModestPreferenceForRinvoqOverAbrocitinib

GiventheefficacyandsafetyprofilesfortheneworalJAKs,doyouseeapreferenceinuse(ifbothapproved)

andcanyoudescribehowyouexpectbothproductstofitintoyourtreatmentparadigm?

1Among25surveyedphysicians,majorityofrespondents(64%)appeartohavenopreferenceoverthetwooralJAKswhile32%preferredRinvoqoverabrocitinib

1JPMView:Interestingly,whilemajorityphysiciansexpressnopreferenceyetbetweenthetwoJAKs,mostnotedthatultimateusewillbedecidedbyfactorslikepayercoverage(whichwilllikelybodewellforRinvoq/AbbVie).ForthosepreferringRinvoqoverabrocitinib,superiorefficacyandarelativelycleanersafetywerehighlighted.WeseethelikelybroaderformularycoverageforRinvoq(givenitswiderangeofindications)andnumericallyhigherefficacypointinggreateruptakeinADrelativetoabrocitinib.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

n=25

64%

32%

4%

IpreferRinvoqover

Abrocitinib

IpreferAbrocitiniboverRinvoq

Nopreference

betweenthetwo

Nopreferencebetweenthetwo

Ithinkthatrefinementofthetargetsandusesinthemarketwillshapetheirrole.

Iwouldusebothdependingonpatient'spreferencefordosingregimenandinsurancecoverage

Themedicationsseemfairlycomparableatthispoint,andusewilllikelybedictatedbyfactorslikeinsurancecoverage.

Ithinktheevidenceisthattheywouldbeequivalenttherapies

afterdupixentthenjak

Bothhavethesametheoreticalriskprofiles

PreferRinvoqoverabrocitinib

needhigherdoseforAbrocitinibwhichincreasesideeffectpotential

GreaterEASI75andEASI90scoreswithRinvoq

Niceheadtoheaddatavsthegoldenstandard(dupixent)

Moreeffectiveandwelltolerated

efficacyseemedsignificantlymoreimpressivewithRinvoqoverAbrocitinb

moreefficacythantheother

PreferabrocitiniboverRinvoq

Thesafetydataisbetter

19

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

TheseDynamicsWillLikelyTranslateIntoHigherShareForRinvoqvs

Abrocitinib

1WeseeseveraldynamicsfrompreviousslidespointingtohigherRinvoqshare(vsabrocitinib)inAtopicdermincluding:

1PhysiciansseeRinvoqofferingbetterefficacyandslightlycleanersafetyatbothdoses,whicharebyfarthetop2factorsintheirprescribingdecisions

132%ofphysicianspreferRinvoqtoabrocitinibandamongthosewithnoclearpreference(64%),manynotedinsurance/payercoverageasthekeydecidingfactorwhichagainbodewellforRinvoq(sincebothhaveoraldosing)

1Whilebothwilllikelyremainpredominantly2Ltreatmentoptions,ahigher%ofphysiciansappearopentousingRinvoqas1Ltreatmentovertime(25%in5yrsvs17%forabro)

1Overall,oursurveypointstoawillingnesstoincorporateJAKsintotheirtreatmentparadigmswithabiastowardsRinvoqoverabrocitinib.Thisisveryconsistentwithourviewofthemarketandifanything,webelieveABBV’shistoricstrong

launchexecutioninimmunologyandlikelyfavorableRinvoq

100%80%60%40%20%

0%

Moderately/SignificanthigherefficacyvsDupi

60%

44%

48%

36%

100%80%60%40%20%0%

n=25

Abrocitinib(50mg)

Abrocitinib(100mg)

Rinvoq(15mg)Rinvoq(30mg)

Moderately/SignificantlyInferior

64%

60%

64%

safetyvsDupi

72%

Abrocitinib(100mg)

Rinvoq(15mg)Rinvoq(30mg)Abrocitinib

(50mg)

Source:J.P.MorganResearch

payercoveragecouldfurtherdifferentiatetheasset.

%AdoptioninAdultandAdolescentPatients

100%

80%

60%

40%

23%

25%

16%17%

20%

0%

RinvoqAbrocitinib

n=251-3yearsIn3-5years

20

%breakdownofphysicians

32%

Somewhat

concerned

OnSafety,MostPhysiciansAreSomewhatConcernedAboutDVT

AssociatedWiththeJAKClass

HowconcernedareyouabouttheblackboxwarningsonelevatedthrombosisriskassociatedwiththeJAKclass

whenprescribingRinvoqandabrocitinib?(NotetherehavenotbeenanyDVTobservedin