飞轮电池生产计划课程设计

学号：课程设计题目飞轮电池生产计划的制定学院机电工程学院专业工业工程班级工业1001班姓名指导老师王老师2023年1月2日目录市场需求预测实际产品的生产工艺路线分析生产方式的经济分析和比较制定综合生产计划生产能力的粗平衡制定主生产计划制定MRP,CRP生产能力的精平衡零件工序卡编制产品装配工序卡编制1.市场需求预测（MarketForecast）HistoricalRecord(AggregateDemand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4由过去的3年的需求来看，需求呈年周期性变化，不考虑每年后8个月的情况，所以选择季节模型来预测，其预测结果如下。***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.00019.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.1183111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.57021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数=0.8872,预测结果准确性很高。其预测结果如下：Mouth1Mouth2Mouth3Mouth4Year4122432282.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代号零件名称零件数量零件材料零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-01顶罩145#铸造车削钻孔半精铣精铣2MLF-02支柱645#粗车半精铣半精车精车车螺纹1MLF-04减震胶圈12普通塑胶板冲压1MLF-06支撑底座3Q235-A铸造粗铣半精铣扩孔2MLF-08密封板1Q235-A冲压半精铣精铣钻孔2MLF-10滑动轴承1锡青铜铸造粗铣半精铣精铣钻孔2MLF-07-01线圈挡板6绝缘板冲压1MLF-07-02电磁铁线圈3Q铜漆包线缠绕13.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)该工厂生产状况：劳工标准600（Labor/Assemble）机器标准425（Machine-Hour/Assemble）装配标准175（Assemble-Hour/Assemble）机器总工作能力12325（Hours/Mouth）装配总工作能力4900（Hours/Mouth）现有工人90（Person）（25workdays&8workhoursaday）Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。每生产一个飞轮电池需要工人：600/（25×8）=31.由市场预测情况知道：总需求量=12+24+32+28=96若采用均衡生产方式，则96/4=24，每月要生产24个由预测情况知道，其中第三月需求量为32，超过该工厂的最大生产能力，所以第三月生产28个首先,计算这一年里计划聘用人员数量,下岗工人的数量和平均库存:123456789101112AggregateplanMouthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffInventoryaddingorsubtractionBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventorypermouthinventoryforfourmouthsLevelcpacitywithinventory112247201812102216682242472000222222332247200（8）221418428247200（4）141012Matchingdemand11212360540000022424723600000332288412000004282884000000接下来,计算所有可能计划的年成本:库存成本79（$/Mouth）雇佣成本10（$/Person）解雇成本60（$/Person）外协成本1800（$/Assemble）AggregateplanTotalnumberofworkershiredTotalanumberofworkerslaidoffAverageforfourmouthshiringandlayoffcostinventorycarryingcostTotalsubtractioncostTotalincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity018681080537206452Matchingdemand48540372004*180010920在matchingdemand生产计划中第三月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。由上，我们知道该工厂的机器总工时和装配总工时最多就能生产28个飞轮电池，所以不是人能加班就能完成的，所以超出28个飞轮电池以外的需求，只能采用外协。又因为，只给出了4个月的市场需求，我们能知道这4个月的生产情况和库存情况，而4个月过后，工人雇佣情况是保持不变，此时，均衡生产是72个工人，而市场匹配是84个工人。但均衡生产有10个的库存。所以仅以此4个月的生产成本计算，其他8个月的情况都忽略。最后，分别计算市场匹配和均衡生产的成本并比较;Costoflevelcapacity=6452+72×4×2×200=121652Costofmatchingdemand=10920+（36+72+84+84）×2×200=121320由以上计算我们知道，市场匹配的成本比均衡生产的成本要少332$综上所述：采用市场匹配方案的费用为121320美元，其次是均衡式生产的费用为121652美元，两者相差332美元，相差不大。1.从预测的数据来看，产品的市场前景是比较好的，环境是比较稳定的。而该厂的生产能力不够，需要扩大机器及装配生产能力。2.市场匹配的生方式使得工厂处于不稳定的状态，总是需要招聘或辞退工人，而且需要加班和外协，不仅使生产变得复杂化，而且公司的生产能力并没用充分利用，同时可能导致工人的工作热情不高，由于新工人经验不足，又或者外协的产品的质量也是不能把握的，都会给产品的质量带来一定的负面影响。3.机器的使用状态也是不稳定的，常需要停用一些机器，这样对机器的工作效率也有一定的影响，而均衡式的生产方式恰能弥补这一点，对公司的稳定发展更有益处。所以选择均衡生产的方式制定综合生产计划(AggregatePlanning)按市场均衡方式生产1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200428247200生产能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Assemblecapacity(hours4900490049004900Finalmachinehours10200102001020010200Machinecapacity(hours12325123251232512325从上表可以看出Finalassemblyhours<Assemblecapacity(hours)，Finalmachinehours<Machinecapacity(hours)说明生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协.6.制定主生产计划（MasterProductionSchedule）均衡生产：主生产计划Month1Month2Month3Month41234123412341234Totaldemand12243228Beginninginventory10222214Requiredproduction6666666666666666Endinginventory22221410制定MRP&ERP(MaterialRequirementplanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)7.1MRP的制定Level0飞轮电池LT=1weekLevel1MLF-01SA-1MLF-08MLF-10SA-4LT=1weekLT=1weekLevel2MLF-02MLF-04MLF-06MLF-07-01MLF-07-02SA-1支撑装配体SA-4电磁铁装配体各个零件选择用LotForLot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得：***MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)***==============================================================================PROBLEMNAME:Untitled==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF00001080LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0112000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeSA-0111000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0221000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements180108108108108108108108ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements180108108108108108108108PlannedOrderReceipts180108108108108108108108PlannedOrderReleases288108108108108108108108****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1081081081081081081080ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1081081081081081081080PlannedOrderReceipts1081081081081081081080PlannedOrderReleases10810810810810810800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0421000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements360216216216216216216216ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements360216216216216216216216PlannedOrderReceipts360216216216216216216216PlannedOrderReleases576216216216216216216216****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements2162162162162162162160ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements2162162162162162162160PlannedOrderReceipts2162162162162162162160PlannedOrderReleases21621621621621621600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0622000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements9054545454545454ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements9054545454545454PlannedOrderReceipts9054545454545454PlannedOrderReleases19854545454545454****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements545454545454540ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements545454545454540PlannedOrderReceipts545454545454540PlannedOrderReleases5454545454000****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0812000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF1012000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeSA-0411000LFL----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678----------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****-----------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF7121000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements6036363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements6036363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts6036363636363636PlannedOrderReleases9636363636363636****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements363636363636360ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements363636363636360PlannedOrderReceipts363636363636360PlannedOrderReleases36363636363600****RUSHORDER****-------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF7221000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements3018181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3018181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts3018181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements181818181818180ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements181818181818180PlannedOrderReceipts181818181818180PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================PLANN