逍遥子-精美时尚PPT模板

INDIA’S

FUTURE29January2007

RBRoyChoudhuryMemoriallectureMumbaiEventhoughtheworldhasjustdiscoveredit,theIndiagrowthstoryisnotnew.Ithasbeengoingonfor25yearsold

WhatistheIndiastory?1)RisingGDPgrowthIndiaStory

2)PopulationgrowthisslowingIndiaStory

%195017199052200065 2023(proj) 80 Source:CensusofIndia(2001)3.LiteracyisrisingIndiaStory

4.MiddleclassisexplodingIndiaStory

198046%200026%2023(proj) 16%1%ofthepeoplehavebeencrossingpovertylineeachyearfor20years.Equals~200million.5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaStory

6.Productivityisrising

IndiaStory

30%to40%ofGDPgrowthisduetorisingproductivity

(US$ppp)

19801178

20003051Source:WorldBankIndiaStory

IndiaStory

THEINDIAMODELISUNIQUEDRIVERSOFGROWTH

India

EastandS.E.Asia

Domestic ExportsDRIVERSOFGROWTH

India

EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic Exports

Services ManufacturingDRIVERSOFGROWTH

India

EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices Manufacturing

Consumption InvestmentDRIVERSOFGROWTH

India

EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingConsumption Investment

Hightech,capitalLowtech,labourintensiveindustryintensiveindustryIMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL

DomesticledInsulationfromglobaldownturnsLessvolatilityIMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL

ServicesledHaveweskippedtheindustrialrevolution?Howdowetakepeoplefromfarmstocities?IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL

ReasonsforSuccess

India’ssuccessismarketledwhereasChina’sisstateinduced.TheentrepreneurisatcentreoftheIndianmodel

Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billionIndiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestmentIndiahasavibrantprivatespaceIndiahasavibrantprivatespaceIndiahasavibrantprivatespaceIndiahasavibrantprivatespaceButpublicspaceisaproblem

Althoughwehavea:+Dynamicdemocracywith honestelectionsPublicspaceisaproblem

Althoughwehavea:

+Dynamicdemocracy

+Free,livelymediaandpressPublicspaceisaproblem

+Dynamicdemocracywith

+Free,livelymediaandpressButthereis:

-Poorgovernance

Publicspaceisaproblem

+Dynamicdemocracy

+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance

-Highpopulistsubsidies,whichresultsinahighfiscaldeficitPublicspaceisaproblem

+Dynamicdemocracy

+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance-HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit

-Nomoneyforinfrastructure

Publicspaceisaproblem

Earlierwehadworldclassinstitutions,buttheyarenowfailingBureaucracyJudiciaryPoliceContrastbetweenpublicandprivatespaceraisesthequestion:

IsIndiarisingdespitethestate?Evenslowreformsaddup -stategettingoutoftheway -everygovernmenthasreformed since1991

KeyReformsEvenslowreformsaddup-stategettingoutoftheway

2)Youngmindsareliberated

MentalRevolution

-‘IwanttobeBilgay’-Raju’ssecretofsuccess-Banianisationofsociety -100cablechannelsfor$3-Hinglish

LookingForward ($)

200021002005 3050 20235800 204016,800 206637,000

Demographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactors25+yrs0-25yrsDemographicSplit1.5bn1.1bnLaborForceLaborForcewilldoubleinthenext20yearsDemographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactorsAgeDependencySavingsRateHighersavingsandinvestmentratewilltranslateintohigherGDPgrowth%198082000222023 32202350Westofthe Kanpur-Chennailine204050Eastofthe Kanpur-ChennailineINDIAWILLGRADUALLYTURNMIDDLECLASS

“By2023Indiawillhaveworld’slargestnumberofEnglishspeakers〞

“When300millionIndiansspeaka wordinacertainway,thatwillbethewaytospeakit.〞

-Prof.DavidCrystal,CambridgeEncyclopediaoftheEnglishLanguageWhatcouldstoptheshow?

FiscaldeficitInfrastructureBadgovernanceNuclearwarREFORMSCHOOL

Labour

REFORMSCHOOL

Labour

AgricultureREFORMSC