运用经济学方法进行疾病防控决策

使用经济决策工具进行疾病防控n

疾病防控经济决策介绍Introductionofeconomicdecisionsfordiseasepreventionandcontroln

如何做疾病预防中的经济决策Howtomakeeconomicdecisionsfordiseasepreventionn

如何做疾病控制中的经济决策Howtomakeeconomicdecisionsfordiseasecontrol疾病防控经济决策介绍INTRODUCTION

OFECONOMIC随着非瘟倒逼养猪产业的升级，养猪业已经发展成为集生产、健康、育种、营养、建设、数据、人力、财务等领域高度融合的一项复杂投资活动。Thepigindustrywhichisunder

ASFpressurehasbeenupgradedanddevelopedintoacomplexinvestmentactivityintegratedwithproduction,health,breeding,nutrition,construction,humanresourceandeconomy.中国面临着世界上最严峻的疾病挑战。如何选择最经济的疾病防控策略至关重要。China’spigindustryfacingthemostseriousdiseasechallengeandit’s

criticaltoknowhowtoselectthemosteconomicalstrategyfordiseasepreventionandcontrol.DECISIONSFORDISEASEPREVENTIONANDCONTROL为什么疾病防控需要经济决策？WHYDODISEASEPREVENTIONANDCONTROLNEEDECONOMICDECISIONS?n

疾病防控直接影响养猪投资回报，进而影响着养猪业的发展。

Diseasepreventionandcontrolinfluencethereturnoninvestmentinpigproductiondirectlyandthedevelopmentofthepigindustryisinfluencedconsequently.n

直接影响企业盈利能力及可持续发展。

Theprofitabilityofcompaniesandsustainabledevelopmentareinfluenced.n

直接反映了健康管理团队的技术水平和生产团队的执行力。Itshowsthetechnicallevelofthehealthmanagementteamandtheexecutivecapacityoftheproductionteam.n

直接影响了动物福利。Animalwelfareisinfluenced.n

影响着养猪业的低碳减排。Lowcarbonreductionofthepigindustryisinfluenced.n

。。。什么是疾病防控中的经济决策工具？WHATISTHEECONOMICDECISIONOFDISEASEPREVENTION?n

经济学的首要关注不是金钱，而是如何制定合理选择或决策整合有限资源来达成目标。Economicsisnotconcernedprincipallywithmoneybutwithmakingrationalchoices/decisionsinallocatingscarceresourcestoachievecompetinggoals.n

金钱单位仅仅是用来比较不同资源和决策目标的衡量单位。

Monetaryunitsaresimplyusedasayardsticktocomparethedifferentresourcesandgoalsinvolvedinthedecision.什么是疾病防控中的经济决策工具？WHATISTHEECONOMICDECISIONOFDISEASEPREVENTION?1234567•

毛利分析•

Grossmarginanalysis•

盈亏平衡分析•

Break-evenanalysis•

局部预算分析•

Partialbudgetanalysis•

决策树分析和回报矩阵•

Decisiontreeanalysisandpay-offtables•

投资评估（成本收益分析）•

Investmentappraisal(cost–benefitanalysis)•

财务可行性•

Financialfeasibility•

模型•

Models谁来做疾病防控中的经济决策？WHOMAKESTHEECONOMICDECISIONINDISEASEPREVENTIONANDCONTROL?决策人想有所收获并做出决策Itisthedecision-makerwhowantsthingsandmakesdecisionsDecision-maker决策人Economicanalysis经济学分析Resources资源Products产品资源是物理因素以及生产产品的基础Resourcesarethephysicalfactorsandservicesthatarethebasisforgeneratingtheproducts产品是满足人需求的东西和服务Productsaregoodsandservicesthatsatisfypeople’swants什么时候什么方面需要做疾病防控中的经济决策？WHENANDWHERENEEDMAKINGTHEECONOMICDECISIONOFDISEASEPREVENTIONANDCONTROL?预防PREVENTION复盘

CASESTUDY•

前瞻分析prospectiveanalysis•

回顾性分析Retrospectiveanalysis如何做疾病预防中的经济决策在实操层面，当以决策制定为目的进行经济分析时，有两个事项需要考虑：HOW

TO

MAKEECONOMICAtamakinganyeconomicanalysisfordecision-inissuestobeconsidered:DECISIONSFORDISEASE息来进行决策制定tionusedfordecisionmakingPREVENTION2如何整理信息以及为了制定决策需要应用什么经济准则Howtoarrangetheinformationandwhateconomiccriteriatoapplyinordertomakedecisions.育肥场如何预防蓝耳？HOWTOPREVENTPRRSFORWEANTOFINISHFARMS?Policy

策略Costs

成本Benefits

受益Unchecked的发病和死Donothing什么也不做Noobviousbenefits无明显收益Treatmentofdiagnosedcase对诊断病例进行治疗Diagnosis,costs诊断Reductioninmorbidityandmortality发病率和死亡率的减少urtherreductioninmorbidityandmortalityplussavingtreatmentcosts发病率和死亡率的进一步减少和治疗费用的节省Annuallyreprogramm疫）的再次Controlofthedisease控制疾病Remainingmorbidityandmortalityeliminatedandcostsofpreviousmethods消除仅剩的发病率和死亡率以及前面方法的成本Once-and-for-allcostoftheprogrammeplussurveillancecosts彻底根除的成本和监测成本Eradicationofthedisease净化疾病育肥场蓝耳控制项目的成本和收益BENEFITSANDCOSTSOFADISEASECONTROLPROJECTCost

ofdisease疾病损失ProductionlossOtherexpendituretocontrolthedisease控制疾病的其他费用Costoftreatment生产损失（Mortality死亡率、ADG日增重、FCR饲料转化率）治疗费用ProjectcostsExtracostsforimplementingthecontrolstrategyintroducedbytheprojectBenefits

ofthediseasecontrolproject疾病控制项目的收益项目成本执行控制策略项目的额外成本疾病控制项目的成本和收益Benefitsandcostsofadiseasecontrolproject育肥场蓝耳免疫的局部分析PARTIALANALYSISFORPRRSVACCINATIONOFWEANTOFINISHFARMSCosts成本RMBRMBExtracosts额外成本ꢀꢀPRRSvaccine蓝耳疫苗2*10*1000=20.15*2310*1000=346500增sLaborforvaccination免疫人工

1000*5000/(2er54*1000*1000/(20*365)=7390成本=200为Laborfor15%extrapigs饲养额外15%猪的人工成本比ꢀ5000*15%1000*0.62*147*0.17*1.5=232401000*10=10000Revenueforgone收益丧失Costsaved成本节约Medicineforsickpigs病猪的药None没有ꢀ费Total

costs总成本20200Total

Benefits总收益38713018.48Benefits收益-Costs成本=366180Benefits收益/Costs成本数据参考DeeS,GuzmanJE,HansonD,GarbesN,MorrisonR,AmodieD,etal.(2018)育肥场蓝耳治疗策略的局部分析PARTIALANALYSISFORPRRSTREATMENTOFWEANTOFINISHFARMSCosts成本$$ꢀꢀExtracosts额外成本收益ided减Medicine兽药49.05*1000=491000*5000/(26*0.15*2310*1000=346500ed日增

54*1000*1000/(20*365)=7390前54天出为1000/Laborfortreatment治疗人工成本Laborfor15%extrapigs饲养5000*15%=750额外15%猪的人工成本1000*0.62*147*0.17*1.5=23240y0.17料Revenueforgone收益丧失Costsaved成本节约ꢀNone没有None没有ꢀTotal

costs总成本Benefits收益-Costs成本=50000Total

Benefits总收益Benefits收益/Costs成本3871307.74337130数据参考DeeS,GuzmanJE,HansonD,GarbesN,MorrisonR,AmodieD,etal.(2018)育肥场蓝耳感染的决策树DECISIONTREEOFPRRSINFECTIONOFWEANTOFINISHFARMSProbablityofInfection感染蓝耳概率ControlStrategiesControl控制ProbabilityTotalvauleCost成本Benefit收益控制策略概率总价值80%Yes感染Yes

成功No

失败0.95¥366,180¥20,950¥20,950¥387,1300.05(¥408,080)(¥387,130)Vaccination免疫¥257,784ꢀ20%Yes成功No

失败10(¥20,950)(¥20,950)¥20,950¥20,950¥0¥0ꢀNO不感染PRRVInfection感染蓝耳ꢀꢀ80%Yes成功No

失败0.20.8¥337,130¥50,000¥50,000¥387,130Yes感染ꢀ(¥437,130)(¥387,130)Treatmentonly仅治疗ꢀ(¥225,822)20%Yes成功No

失败10¥0¥0¥0¥0¥0¥0NO不感染数据参考ZhenhuaGuo1,Xin-xinChen,RuiLi,etal.(2018)小结SUMMARY1000头）选择免疫蓝耳疫苗控制策略的收益是257784元。而选择不n

育肥场（免疫蓝耳疫苗仅治疗的策略的收益是-225822元。尤其在高密度养殖区及蓝耳流行率高的地区，蓝耳免疫控制策略有更大的优势。

ThebenefitsofPRRSvaccinationforweantofinishfarm(1,000heads)is257,784RMBwhilethatoftreatmentonlywithoutPRRSvaccinationis-225,822RMB.EspeciallyforthehighpigdensityareawithhighPRRSprevalence,thePRRSvaccinationstrategyhasbiggeradvantage.如何做疾病控制中的经济决策中国养猪业健康管理面临诸多挑战，如何发挥经济决策在疾病控制中的作用至关重要。Chinapigindustryfacingmanychallengesinhealthmanagement.Itiscriticalunderstandhoweconomicdecisionplayitsroleindiseasecontrol.HOW

TO

MAKEECONOMICDECISIONSFORDISEASECONTROL在诸多挑战中，非洲猪瘟无疑是最重要的一个。并且报道显示非瘟弱毒株（基因I型和自然致弱基因II型）的出现，让非瘟控制的难度进一步加大。Amongthechallenges,

ASFisthemostimportantonewithnodoute.Moreover,

thereportedlowvirulent

ASFVinfieldmakethecontrolof

ASFbecomemoredifficult.母猪场发生非瘟弱毒的风险评估RISKASSESSMENTOFSOWFARMSINFECTEDLOWVIRULENTASF生物安全风险评估

AssessingBiosecurityRisk从疫区通过合法和违法运输或者其他传播途径传到母猪场内并最终暴露在猪群的风险是什么？Whatistheriskofintroducing

ASFfrominfectedzonethroughlegalandillegaltransportortransmissionroutesintosowfarmsandsubsequentexposuretotheherds?Physicalpathway&scenariotrees物理途径&情景树GeneralRiskPathway一般传入途径HazardIdentification危害识别RiskQuestion风险问题RiskAss风险案母猪场发生非瘟弱毒的风险评估RISKASSESSMENTOFSOWFARMSINFECTEDLOWVIRULENTASF生物安全风险定性评估

QualitativeassessmentofBiosecurityRisk非瘟弱毒感染后的生产流程图FLOWCHARTOFPRODUCTIONANALYSISAFTERLOWVIRULENTASFVINFECTION母猪场非瘟弱毒拔牙策略的投资收益局部分析PARTIALANALYSISOFBENEFITSANDCOSTSOFTESTREMOVALOFLOWVIRULENTASFINFECTIONSownumber母猪数Prevalence流行率80000.1%Euthanatizedanimalpercentage处死动物百分比0.5%Costs成本ꢀꢀBenefits收益ꢀꢀExtracosts额外成本Costsaved成本节约Euthanatizedsuspiciousanimals处死动物费用¥40Valuelostofculledanimalsindepopulation清群动物价值损失Humanresourcecostofrepopulation复产人力成本Disinfectantscostofrepopulation复产消毒剂成本4800000661688403600Deadanimalsdisposal死猪处理¥15,600¥18,900¥2,250Disinfection消毒Withdrawcoverall工作服丢弃Equipementcostofrepopulation复产设备成本Materialscostofrepopulation复产耗材成本263852¥97,692Costofunproductivedays(10)静默10天饲养成本Valuelostofeuthanatizedanimals处死动物的价值损失¥41,629¥292,000ꢀꢀRevenueforgone收益损失ꢀExtrarevenue额外收益ꢀꢀꢀNewpigletsofthe10days10天的新生仔猪(¥353,846)Profitofnewpigletsofeuthanatizedanimals处死动物提供的仔猪利润Profitofnewpigletsofwholeherd全群全年动物提供的仔猪利润(¥9,200)(¥18,400,000)Totalcosts总成本¥7,373Totalbenefits总收益(¥12,173,168)Benefits总收益-Costs总成本=(¥12,180,541)Benefits收益/Costs成本=-1651.09母猪场非瘟弱毒带毒生产的投资收益分析ANALYSISOFBENEFITSANDCOSTSOFSOWFARMPRODUCTIONWITHLOWVIRULENTASFINFECTIONProductionEfficiencyInformation生产效率信息WeanedPigs/MatedSow/Year断奶仔猪/配种母猪/年Litters/MatedSow/Year窝数/配种母猪/年WeaningWeight(Kg)断奶重SowReplacementRate母猪更新率SowMortality(%)母猪死亡率Revenue收入WeanedPig断奶苗猪ManureCredit粪肥销售CullSows淘汰母猪Insuranceofdeadsows母猪死亡保险毛收益GROSSINCOME16.00ꢀ2.00ꢀ6ꢀ45%ꢀ30%ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀPrice价格Unit单位Qty数量

Unit单位1hd头TotalperYearperSow每年每头母猪均摊4800TotalperYearperPigSold每年每头断奶猪均摊300.0300perhd每头0perton每吨1500perhd每头1500perhd每头ꢀ******16.00=1=0ton吨1hd头1hd头ꢀ02254500.014.128.1**39%=30%=ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ5475342.2VariableCosts可变成本GiltFeed后备料GestatonFeed妊娠料FarrowingFeed哺乳料ꢀꢀꢀꢀ***ꢀꢀꢀ***ꢀꢀ45%=2.00=2.00=2.00=ꢀ3.2perkg每千克3.1perkg每千克3.7perkg每千克8.8perkg每千克207kg千克299kg千克105kg千克7.2kg千克298.11853.8777.018.6115.948.67.9CreepyFeed教槽料**126.7ExternalBiosecuirty外部生物安全Operatingcost运营费用Labtestcost检测费用Manureprocessingcost环保费用Transportationcost运输费用Labor人工VetMedicine/Drugs兽医兽药ReplacementFemales后备母猪SemenCost&GeneticFee精液&基因费Marketing市场销售Utilities,Gas,Fuel,Oil公共资源水电煤气Machinery,Facility/Equip.Repairs器械设备维修Othervariablecosts其他可变成本总可变成本TotalVariableCostsFixedCosts固定成本ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ550.099.0550perhd每头99perhd每头396perhd每头616perhd每头16.5perhr每小时180perhd每头2800perhd每头225perhd每头0perhd每头300perhd每头250perhd每头62.75perhd每头ꢀ************1hd头1hd头1hd头1hd头44hour小时1hd头0.45hd头1hd头1hd头1hd头1hd头1hd头ꢀ************1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=34.46.2396.0616.0726.0180.01260.0225.00300.0250.062.824.838.545.411.378.814.1018.815.63.9ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ7720.35482.5ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀMachinery,Facilities,GeneralOverhead器械设备一般间接费用500perhd每头15perhd每头0perhd每头0perhd每头****1hd头1hd头1hd头1hd头ꢀꢀꢀꢀ****1=500.015.00.00.051531.30.90.00.032.2TaxesandInsurance税费和保险Legal,Accounting,etc.法务和财务Otherfixedcosts其他固定成本总固定成本TotalFixedCosts总成本TotalCosts1=1=1=ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ8235.35-2245.35-2760.35514.7094-140.334-172.522IncomeOverVariableCosts除去可变成本后收入IncomeOverTotalCosts除去总成本后收入母猪场非瘟弱毒感染的决策树DECISIONTREEOFSOWFARMSWITHLOWVIRULENTASFINFECTIONControlStrategies控制策略Eradication净化Probability概率Totalvaule总价值Cost成本Benefit收益Testandremoval拔牙

Yes成功(¥6,531,522)0.050.95(¥12,180,541)¥7,373(¥12,173,168)(¥6,226,832)No失败(¥6,234,205)¥7,373ꢀProductionwithvirusInfectionwithlowvirulentASFV弱毒感染

带毒生产(¥22,082,800)Yes成功No失败01(¥6,743,32