财务估值模型

,公司名称：,,,,,

,一般情景,,,,,

,公司基本情况,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,每股收益（元）,0.172,0.295,0.511,0.600,0.694

,净利润增长率,,71.71%,73.20%,17.26%,15.75%

,市盈率（倍）,NA,27.09,15.64,13.34,11.53

,行业平均市盈率（倍）,37.77,28.02,29.17,28.44,N/A

,市场平均市盈率（倍）,42.35,33.95,28.85,26.90,N/A

,PE/G（倍）,,0.38,0.21,0.77,0.73

,净资产收益率,9.30%,13.77%,21.31%,22.21%,23.31%

,每股净资产（元）,1.85,2.14,2.40,2.70,2.98

,市净率（倍）,,3.73,3.33,2.96,2.69

,每股经营性现金（元）,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.87,0.98

,流通A股（百万股）,250.0,250.0,250.0,250.0,250.0

,总股本（百万股）,"3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0"

,利润表（百万元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,销售收入,"4,326","5,177","6,471","7,636","8,781"

,增长率,,19.7%,25.0%,18.0%,15.0%

,主营业务成本、税金,"3,207","3,722","4,192","4,972","5,724"

,%销售收入,74.1%,71.9%,64.8%,65.1%,65.2%

,主营业务利润,"1,119","1,454","2,278","2,664","3,057"

,主营利润率,25.9%,28.1%,35.2%,34.9%,34.8%

,其他业务利润,25,24,25,25,25

,%税前利润,3.7%,2.1%,1.2%,1.1%,0.9%

,营业费用,0,0,0,0,0

,%销售收入,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

,管理费用,188,226,224,261,298

,%销售收入,4.3%,4.4%,3.5%,3.4%,3.4%

,财务费用,156,118,97,100,86

,%销售收入,3.6%,2.3%,1.5%,1.3%,1.0%

,营业利润,800,"1,134","1,982","2,328","2,698"

,营业利润率,18.5%,21.9%,30.6%,30.5%,30.7%

,投资、补贴及营业外收支,-116,20,20,20,20

,%税前利润,-17.0%,1.7%,1.0%,0.9%,0.7%

,税前利润,684,"1,154","2,002","2,348","2,718"

,利润率,15.8%,22.3%,30.9%,30.8%,31.0%

,所得税,111,172,300,352,408

,所得税率,16.3%,14.9%,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%

,少数股东损益,0.3,0.7,1.1,1.3,1.6

,%税前利润,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%

,净利润,572,982,"1,701","1,994","2,309"

,净利率,13.2%,19.0%,26.3%,26.1%,26.3%

,增长率,,71.7%,73.2%,17.3%,15.7%

,EPS（元/股）,0.172,0.295,0.511,0.600,0.694

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,资产负债表（百万元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,货币资金,715,"1,138",700,"1,886","2,457"

,应收款项,NA,243,279,329,379

,存货,116,116,147,177,208

,其他流动资产,194,262,324,382,439

,流动资产,"1,449","1,760","1,450","1,589","2,912"

,固定资产,"7,498","7,726","9,099","9,873","9,491"

,资产总计,"9,002","9,585","10,654","11,575","12,523"

,短期贷款,197,271,380,140,0

,应付账款,193,152,184,222,260

,其他流动负债,646,338,364,437,512

,流动负债,"1,037",762,929,800,772

,长期负债,"1,804","1,686","1,738","1,790","1,842"

,负债,"2,841","2,447","2,666","2,589","2,613"

,少数股东权益,5.5,6.1,6.4,6.6,6.9

,股东权益,"6,149","7,131","7,982","8,979","9,902"

,负债股东权益合计,"9,002","9,585","10,654","11,575","12,523"

,,,,,,,

,现金流量表（人民币百万元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,净利润,572,982,"1,701","1,994","2,309"

,少数股东损益增额,0.3,0.7,0.2,0.3,0.3

,折旧与摊销,864,791,831,928,986

,坏帐准备,-3.2,4.7,7.7,5.6,5.5

,营运资金变动,307,154,-86,-41,-38

,经营活动现金净流,"1,741","1,932","2,453","2,887","3,262"

,资本开支,-979,-970,"-2,200","-1,700",-600

,其他,0,0,0,0,0

,投资活动现金净流,-979,-970,"-2,200","-1,700",-600

,募集资金,829,0,0,0,0

,股息,-333,-443,-850,-997,"-1,385