SAT历年真题：新SAT0305（完美修复版）

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SAT®PracticeTest#0305

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ReadingTest

65MINUTES,52QUESTIONS

TurntoSection1ofyouranswersheettoanswerthequestionsinthissection.

DIRECTIONS

Eachpassageorpairofpassagesbelowisfollowedbyanumberofquestions.Afterreadingeachpassageorpair,choosethebestanswertoeachquestionbasedonwhatisstatedorimpliedinthepassageorpassagesandinanyaccompanyinggraphics(suchasatableorgraph).

Questions1-10arebasedonthefollowingpassage.

ThispassageisadaptedfromMichaelChabon,TheAmazingAdventuresofKavalier&Clay.©2000byMichaelChabon.

RoseSaxon,theQueenofRomanceComics,wasatherdrawingboardinthegarageofherhouseinBloomtown,NewYork.

Line MissSaxonwasatworkonthetextofanew

5story,whichsheintendedtobeginlayingoutthatnightafterhersonwenttobed.Itwouldbethe

leadstoryfortheJuneissueofKissComics .Sheplannedtocallit“TheBombDestroyedMyMarriage.”Thestorywouldbebasedonanarticle

10thatshehadreadinRedbookaboutthe

humorousdifficultiesofbeingmarriedtoanuclearphysicistemployedbythegovernmentatatop-secretfacilityinthemiddleoftheNewMexicodesert.Shewasnotwritingsomuchas15planning

15outherpanels,onebyone,atthetypewriter.Overtheyears,Sammy’sscriptshadgrownnolessdetailedbutlooser;heneverbotheredwithtellinganartistwhattodraw.Rosacouldn’toperatethatway;shehatedworkingfrom

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10

CONTINU

Unauthorizedcopyingorreuseofanypartofthispageis

20Sammy’sscripts.Sheneededtohaveeverythingfiguredoutinadvance—storyboarded,theycalleditinHollywood—shotbyshot,asitwere.

RosahadgottenherstartincomicssoonafterSammy’sreturntothebusiness,afterthewar.

25Upontakingovertheeditor’sdeskatGoldStar.Sammy’sfirstmovehadbeentoclearoutmanyofthesubcompetentswholitteredthestaffthere.Itwasaboldandnecessarystep,butitlefthimwithanacuteshortageofartists,inparticularofinkers.

30 Tommyhadstartedkindergarten,andRosawasjustbeginningtounderstandthetruehorrorofherdestiny,thearrantpurposelessnessofherlifewheneverhersonwasnotaround,onedaywhenSammycamehomeatlunch,harriedandfrantic,

35withanarmloadofBristolboard,abottleofHigginsink,andabunchof3brushes,andbeggedRosatohelphimbydoingwhatshecould.Shehadstayedupallnightwithpages—itwassomedreadfulGoldStarsuperherostrip,TheHuman

40GrenadeorThePhantomStallion—andhadthejobfinishedbythetimeSammyleftforwork

thenextmorning.ThereignoftheQueenhadcommenced.

RoseSaxonhademergedslowly,lendingher

45inkbrushatfirstonlynowandthen,unsignedanduncredited,toastoryoracoverthatshewouldspreadoutonthedinettletableinthekitchen.Rosahadalwayshadasteadyhand,astrongline,agoodsenseofshadow.Itwasworkdoneina

50kindofunreflectivecrisismode—butafterawhile,sherealizedthatshehadbeguntocraveintenselythedayswhenSammyhadsomethingforhertodo.

Thenonenight,astheylayinbed,talkinginthe

55dark,SammytoldherthatherbrushworkalreadyfarexceededthatofthebestpeoplehecouldaffordtohireatlowlyGoldStar.Heaskedherifshehadevergivenanythoughttopenciling;tolayouts;toactuallywritinganddrawingcomic

60bookstories.HeexplainedtoherthatSimonandKirbywerejustthenhavingconsiderablesuccesswithanewkindoffeaturethey’dcookedup,basedpartlyonteenfeatureslikeArchieandADatewithJudyandpartlyontheoldtrue-

65romancepulps(thelastoftheoldpulpgenrestobeexhumedandgivennewlifeinthecomics).ItwascalledYoungRomance.Itwasaimedatwomen,andthestoriesittoldwerecenteredonwomen.Womenhadbeenneglecteduntilnowas

70readersofcomicbooks;itseemedtoSammythattheymightenjoyonethathadactuallybeenwrittenanddrawnbyoneoftheirown.Rosahad

acceptedSammy’sproposalatonce,withaflushofgratitudewhosepowerwasundiminishedeven

75now.

1

Whichchoicebestsummarizesthepassage?

Asuccessfulartistthinksbackonthebeginningofhercareer.

Acomicbookgearedtowardwomenbecomesapopularbestseller.

Anownerofacomicbookcompanydevelopsanewkindofcomicbook.

Awomanhelpsherhusbandbuildasuccessfulcomicbookcompany.

2

Theauthorincludestheinformationinthefirstparagraphmostlikelyto

RevealspecificinformationaboutRosa’sconflictlaterinthepassage.

Provideabriefintroductiontothewomen’scomicbookindustry.

Revealkeydetailsaboutthemaincharacterandsettingofthepassage.

ProvideaflashbacktoRosa’slifebeforeshebecameawifeandmother.

3

Asusedinline17,”looser”mostnearlymeans

Roomier

Moreinformal

Morecareless

Weaker

4

ThemainpurposeofincludingtheinformationaboutSammytakingoverastheeditoratGoldStaristo

providecontextforthereasonRosastartedworkingforSammy.

explainwhymanypeoplestoppedpurchasingGoldStarcomics.

revealhowSammywassosuccessfulinhiscareeratsuchayoungage.

illustrateRosa’sgratitudeforajobopportunityatGoldStar.

5

Accordingtothepassage,whywasSammysodesperateforRosatohelphim?

Hehadnoartistswithcomicbookexperience.

Hewasnotconfidentthathewouldbeabletodotheworkhimself.

HehadashortageofartistsatGoldStarafterfiringmanymembersofthestaff.

HefeltitwouldbebeneficialforRosatospendtimeworkingonaproject.

6

Basedonthepassage,helpingSammyinkcomicswasespeciallyimportanttoRosabecauseshe

hadapassionforcomicbooks.

wasfeelinganemptinessinherlife.

likedtosupportherhusband’sgoals.

wantedtofindaninterestinghobby.

7

Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines9-14(“Thestory…desert”)

Lines30-37(“Tommy…could”)

Lines57-60(“Heasked…stories”)

Line66(“Itwascalled…Romance”)

8

Theauthorusestheterm“Queen”inlines1and42mostlikelyto

stresshowsuccessfulRosahasbecomeatcreatingcomicbooks.

describeanewcharacterthatSammyisdevelopingatGoldStar.

showhowRosaviewsthewomenwhoreadhercomics.

explainwhyRosausesadifferentnamewhileworkingforGoldStar.

9

WithwhichideaaboutcomicbookswouldRosamostlikelyagree?

Drawingforcomicbooksisharderthandrawingforotherartforms.

Masteringcomicbooksketchingtakesyearsofformaltraining.

Developingcomicbooksrequiresarangeofskills.

Creatingcomicbooksiseasiestwhenthereisnottoomuchstructure.

10

WhichchoicebestsupportstheideathatRosaisthrilledtobewritinganddrawingherowncomics?

Lines14-15(“Shewas…typewriter”)

Lines37-40(“Shehad…Stallion”)

Lines49-52(“Itwas…todo”)

Lines72-75(“Rosa…evennow”)

Questions11-21arebasedonthefollowingpassages.

Passage1isadaptedfromCesarChavez,“LetterfromDelano,”alettersenttoE.L.BarrJr.in1969.Passage2isfromMarkDay,FortyAcres:CesarChavezandtheFarmWorkers.©1971byPraegerPublishers,Inc.CesarChavezcofoundedtheNationalFarmWorkersAssociation.E.L.BarrJr.wasthepresidentoftheCaliforniaGrapeandTreeFruitLeague.FortyAcresisahistoricalaccountwrittenbyamemberofChavez’smovement.

Passage1

Youmustunderstand-1mustmakeyouunderstand—thatourmembershipandthehopesandaspirationsofthehundredsofthousandsof

Linethelinepoordispossessedthathavebeenraised

5onouraccountare,aboveall,humanbeings,nobetterandnoworsethananyothercross-sectionofhumansociety;wearenotsaintsbecausewearepoor,butbythesamemeasureneitherareweimmoral.Wearemenandwomenwhohave

10sufferedandenduredmuch,andnotonlybecauseofourabjectpovertybutbecausewehavebeenkeptpoor.Thecolorsofourskins,thelanguages

ofourculturalandnativeorigins,thelackofformaleducation,theexclusionfromthe

15democraticprocess,thenumbersofourmenslaininrecentwars—alltheseburdensgenerationaftergenerationhavesoughttodemoralizeus,tobreakourhumanspirit.ButGodknowsthatwearenotbeastsofburden,agriculturalimplements,or

20rentedsalves:wearemen.Andmarkthiswell,Mr.Barr,wearemenlockedinadeathstruggleagainstman’sinhumanitytomanintheindustrythatyourepresent.Andthisstruggleitselfgivesmeaningtoourlife.andennoblesourdying.

25 Asyourindustryhasexperienced,ourstrikershereinDelanoandthosewhorepresentusthroughouttheworldarewelltrainedforthisstruggle.Theyhavebeenunderthegun,theyhavebeenkickedandbeatenandherdedbydogs,they

30havebeencursedandridiculed,theyhavebeenstrippedandchainedandjailed,theyhavebeensprayedwiththepoisonsusedinthevineyards:butsprayedwiththepoisonsusedinthevineyards;buttheyhavebeentaughtnottolie

35downanddienortofleeinshame,buttoresistwitheveryounceofhumanenduranceandspirit.Toresistnotwithretaliationinkindbuttoovercomewithloveandcompassion,withingenuityandcreativity,withhardworkand

40longerhours,withstaminaandpatienttenacity,withtruthandpublicappeal,withfriendsandallies,withnobilityanddiscipline,withpoliticsandlaw,andwithprayerandfasting.

Thisisnottopretendthatwehaveeverywhere

45beensuccessfulenoughorthatwehavenotmademistakes.Andwhilewedonotbelittleorunderestimateouradversaries-firtheyaretherichandthepowerfulandtheypossesstheland-wearenotafraidnordowecringefromthe

50confrontation.Wewelcomeit!Wehaveplannedforit!Weknowthatourcauseisjust,thathistoryisastoryofsocialrevolution,andthatthepoorshallinherittheland.

Passage2

Intheearlierspringof1970,theleavesbegan

55appearingonthegrapevinesaroundDelano.Anendlesscyclerepeateditself;birth,fruition,thenthedeadandcoldofwinter.Untilrecently,farmworkersblendedinwiththisscenarioalmostunnoticeably.Peopletooktheirpoverty,their

60hunger,andtheirdreary,hopelessexistenceforgranted.

ButinSeptember,1965,acryforjusticewentforthfromDelano.Itwasacryofoutrageandacryofhope.Thepicketlinesandthecrowded

65strikers’meetings,theexcitementintheair,spelledoutacommonlonging:justbecausethingswerebadlastyear,andtheyearbefore,andtheyearbeforethat-theydidnothavetobethesamethisyear,orintheyearstocome.

70 TheDelanostrikersbeganalong,uphillfightin1965.Theybegantochipawayattheoldfoundationoftheruralfarmeconomyinordertobuildanewlifeforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.Itwasanalmostimpossibletask.Theywithdrew

75theirlaborfromthevineyardsandwerereplacedbyforeignlabor.Theysetuptheirpicketlinesandhadthemweakenedbypowerfulinjunction.Theypledgedthemselvestononviolenceandhadtofaceviolenceandhatredfromthegroweragents

80andtheinstitutionalizedviolenceofcorruptcourts,brutalpolicemen,andself-seekingpoliticians.

But,inspiteofanendlessstreamoffrustratingobstacles,victorieshavebeenwonanddespairhasgivenwaytohope.Farmworkersunionized

85severalranchesandhaveshouted“no”tothepaternalismandexploitationoftheirbosses.Theynowhavedevelopedinspiringleadershipamongthemselveson85theirranches.Theyhavelearnedthemachineryofunionism:grievanceprocedures,

90negotiations,andthenewsenseofdignityandpowereverymanneedsonordertofacethefuture.

11

ItcanreasonablybeinferredthattheauthorofpassageIviewstheDelanostrikeas

alastresortthatisnecessarybecausepreviousattemptstoachieveequalityhavefailed.

anoutwardexpressionofthehighmoralintegrityofsufferingworkers.

anhonorableundertakingwithconnectionstosimilarstrugglesofthepast.

anintimidatingbutultimatelynecessaryresponsetochangingconditions.

12

Accordingtotheauthorofpassage1,theactoffightingagainstmistreatmentgivesthestrikersandtheirsupportersasenseof

dignity

authority

contentment

hopelessness

17

Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines56-57(“People…granted”)

Lines67-69(“Theybegan…families”)

Lines74-77(“Theypledged…politicians”)

Lines85-88(“Theyhave…future”)

18

Asusedinline72,“foundation”mostnearlymeans

association.

underpinning.

justification.

genesis.

13

WhichchoicefrompassageIbestsupportstheconclusionthattheDelanostrikershavenotresortedtoviolence?

Lines18-20(“ButGod…slaves”)

Line28-32(“Theyhavebeenunder…vineyards”)

Lines37-38(“Toresist…compassion”)

Lines50-51(“Wewelcome…forit”)

14

Themainpurposeofthelastparagraphofpassage1isto

acknowledgesshortcomingsyetexpressafirmconvictionaboutthestrike.

Establishthecredibilityofthegroupthatisoverseeingthestrike.

Reiteratetheclaimthatthestrikersarenodifferentfromotherindividualsinsociety.

Recognizeanargumentmadebycriticsofthestrikeandpresentexampletorefuteit.

15

Asusedinline66,”common”mostnearlymeans

routine

shared

standard

causal

16

TheauthorofPassage2suggeststhattheDelanostrikewasprimarilydrivenbyadesireto

undermineestablishedpracticesthatweredetrimentaltothefarmworkers.

ensurethatevenlaborerswithoutformaltrainingwouldreceivesufficientwages.

putanendtotheinfluenceofcorruptgovernmentofficialsonfarmingprograms.

bringattentiontotheharshenvironmentalconditionsofvineyardsinthearea.

19

Whichofthefollowingstatementsbestdescribestherelationshipbetweenthepassages?

Passage1discussesingeneraltermsastrugglethatisdescribedindetailinPassage2.

Passage1detailstheoutcomeofaconflictthatisintroducedinPassage2.

Passage2offersbackgroundinformationabouttheauthorofPassage1.

Passage2providesmorecontextforthesituationthatisfocusofPassage1.

20

Whichpointabouttheexperienceoffarmworkersismadeinbothpassages?

Workershavereliedonpicketingasameanstoadvancetheircause.

Workershavebeenheldbackanddiscouragedbypersistentcircumstances.

Workershavebeenreplacedbyworkersfromotherindustriesduringthestrike.

Workershaveidentifiedthemselvesasinstrumentsessentialtoagriculture.

21

TheworkersdescribedinthefirstparagraphofPassage2aremostlikelymembersofwhichgroupreferredtoinPassage1?

The“dispossessed”(line4)

The“saints”(line7)

The“adversaries”(line47)

The“rich”(line47)

Questions22-32arebasedonthefollowingpassageandsupplementarymaterial.

ThispassageisadaptedfromRobertMartinHowWeDok.

©2013byRobertMartin

Rapidbraingrowthduringthefirstyearoflifeisconnectedwithanunusualfeatureofnewbornhumaninfants:theirstrikingplumpness.Inan

Lineaveragehumannewbornweighingsomeseven

5andahalfpounds,fattissueaccountsforoverapound,around14percentofbodyweight.Ourbabiesareamongtheplumpestfoundamongmammals.Humanbabiesatbirthlookmarkedlydifferentfromthescrawnynewbornsofother

10primates,suchaschimpanzeesandrhesusmonkeys.Theproportionoffattissueinanewbornhumanmatchesthatinmammalslivingunderarcticconditionsandactuallyexceedsthelevelfoundinbabyseals.Asanthropologist

15ChristopherKuzawahasshown,anewbornhumanhasaboutfourtimesasmuchfatasexpectedforastandardnewbornmammalofthesamebodysize.Infact,theproportionofbodyfatinahumanbabyincreasesfurtheroverthefirst

20ninemonthsafterbirth,buildinguptoaboutaquarterofbodyweight.Duringthatperiod,around70percentoftheenergyallocatedtogrowthisusedtodepositfat.Inshort,healthybabiesdonotlosetheirbabyfatafterbirthbut

25consolidateitandmaintainitforuptothreeyears.Amother’sinvestmentinbuildingupherinfant’sfatreservescontinueslongafterbirth,largelythankstonursing.

Astandardexplanationforplumpbabieshas

30beenthatnaturalselectionfavoredanincreaseinbodyfattooffsetthelossofinsulatingbodyhair.Itisknownthattheoptimaltemperatureforahumaninfantkeptinanincubatorisabout90°F,socoolingcouldbeaproblem.Babyfatis

35distinctivelydistributed,beingmainlylocatedjustbeneaththeskin.Incontrasttoadultfatstores,thereisrelativelylittlefatinthebellycavity.AnthropologistBoguslawPawlowskisupportedthisview,arguingthatcariousfeatureofhuman

40newbornevolvedinearlyhumanstocounterexcessivecoolingduringnightsspentsleepinginopensavannah.Thosefeaturesincluderelativelylargesizeaswellasagreaterproportionofsubcutaneousfat.

45 However,Kuzawa’sstudiesyieldedonlyweakevidencefortheroleofsubcutaneousfatproposedbyPawlowski.Kuzawawentontoexploreamorelikelyexplanationforourexceptionallyplumpbabies:increasedfatreserves

50asacrucialenergybuffer.Thiswouldbeparticularlyadvantageousduringtheperiodof

rapidbraingrowthinthefirstyearoflife.Itcouldoffsetanydisruptionintheflowofresourcestothegrowinginfant.Goingastepfurther,a2003

55paperbytwonutritionists,StephenCunnaneandMichaelCrawford,arguedthatplumpbabiesarethekeytotheevolutionofthelargehumanbrain,andnotonlybecauseofenergysupply.Abouthalfthebrainconsistsoffat,andababy’sfatreserves

60containspecialfats—long-chainpolyunsaturatedfattyacids(LCPUFAs)—thatareessentialfornormalbraindevelopment.CalculationsindicatethatLCPUFAspresentinbabyfatatbirthshouldbeenoughtofuelthreemonthsofbraingrowth.

65Depositionoffatinthehumanfetustakesplaceonlyduringthelastthirdofpregnancy;almostnofatispresentduringthefirstsixmonths.Asaresult,fatreservesarewellbelownormalinprematurebabies.Ababybornfiveweeksearly

70hasonlyhalftheusualamountoffat,andababyborntenweeksearlyhaslessthanasixth.

Insufficientfatdepositsmeanthatpreemiesarenotwellbufferedfortherapidbraingrowththattakesplaceafterbirth.Althoughnormalbrain

75growthcanneverthelessoccurgivenadequatenutrition,itisvitaltorecognizedthespecialneedsofprematurebabies.Cunnaneaptlydescribesstoredfatinthenewbornhumanas“insurance.”

AdaptedfromChristopherKuzawa,“AdiposeTissueinHumanInfancyandChildhood.”©1998byWiley-Liss,Inc.

22

Themainpurposeofthepassageisto

providedatatochallengeahypothesisabouthumangrowth.

evaluatethevalidityofresearchfindingsregardingearlybraindevelopment.

examineresearchcomparingtraitsofhumannewbornstotraitsofothernewbornmammals.

23

explorenewhypothesesabouttheimportanceoffatinhumaninfants.

Acentralideaofthepassageisthat

reservesofspecialfatsinhumannewbornsandinfantshelpfueltheirbraindevelopment.

theamountoffatreservesinahumannewbornislargelydeterminedbythenewborn’senvironment.

theproportionofbodyfatinahumaninfantrisestosurprisinglevelsduringthefirsttwoyearsoflife.

differencesinfattyacidlevelsexplaindifferencesbetweenthebraingrowthrateofhumanadultsandthatofhumaninfants.

raiseadditionalquestionsaboutthefunctionoffattyacidsfoundinbabies.

reconcileconflictingtheoriesabouttheroleoffatreservesinprematurenewborns.

29

Whichchoicebestsupportstheconclusionthatthepercentageoffatinahumanfetus’sbrainincreasesbetween6and9months’gestation?

Lines54-58(“Going…supply”)

Lines58-62(“About…development”)

Lines62-64(“Calculations…growth”)

Lines65-67(“Deposition…months”)

24

Asusedinline29,“standard”mostnearlymeans

definitive.

accepted.

uniform.

technical.

25

Asusedinline42,“open”mostnearlymeans

porous.

accessible.

uncovered.

vacant.

26

TheauthorsuggestthatKuzawarejectedPawlowski’shypothesisabouthumanbabyfatbecauseKuzawa

believedthatPawlowskihadnotstudiedalargeenoughnumberofsubjects.

determinedthatPawlowskihadmisrepresenteddata.

consideredthedataonwhichPawlowskibasedhishypothesisoutdated.

foundinsufficientsupportforPawlowski’sconclusion.

30

Thefigureindicatesthatthefatpercentageofbodyweightin60-month-oldmalesismostsimilartothefatpercentageofbodyweightthathumanspossessatage

0months

10months

20months

40months

31

Accordingtothefigure,thedifferencesinthefatpercentageofbodyweightbetweenmalesandfemalesare

smallerafteranincreaseinfemales’growthratearound10monthsofage.

exactlythesameduringtheperiodfrombirthto60months.

initiallyveryslightbutbecomegreaterafterabout5monthsofage.

consistentwithbodylengthdifferencesbetweenmalesandfemalesuptoage60months.

32

27

Whichchoiceprovidesthebestevidencefortheanswertothepreviousquestion?

Lines38-42(“Anthropologist…savannah”)

Lines45-47(“However…Pawlowski”)

Lines47-50(“Kuzawa…buffer”)

Lines77-78(“Cunnane…insurance”)

Accordingtothedatainthefigure,thefatpercentageofbodyweightinhumanfemalesislessatage20monthsthanatage

10months.

30months.

40months.

60months.

28

ThedescriptionofCunnaneandCrawford’sworkservesmainlyto

suggestthatearlierhypothesesaboutfatreservesareincomplete.

furthersupportKuzawa’shypothesisabouttheeffectoffatreservesonbraingrowth.

Questions33-42arebasedonthefollowingpassageandsupplementarymaterial.

AdaptedfromNealJ.RoeseandKathleenD.Vohs,“HindsightBias”2012byNeau.RoeseandKathleenD.Vons

Hindsightbiasisdefinedasthebeliefthataneventismorepredictableafteritbecomesknownthanitwasbeforeitbecameknown.Forexample,a

Linevotermightbelievethatafteracceptingthe

5DemocraticnominationforpresidentinAugust2008,BarackObama’schancesofwinningthe

U.S.presidencywereabout60%.AfterObama’svictoryinNovember2008,thissamevotermightlookback,seethevictoryasmorepredictable

10thanitwasbeforetheoutcomewasknown,andconcludethatObama’schanceswereatleast80%atthetimeoftheconvention.Sometimestermedthe“Knewitallalongeffect,”hindsightbiasinvolvestheinabilitytorecapturethefeeling

15ofuncertaintythatprecededanevent.Whenthereisaneedtounderstandpasteventsastheywereexperiencedatthetime,hindsightbiasthwartssoundappraisal.

Hindsightbiashasimportantconsequencesfor

20thelegalsystem,particularlywithrespecttonegligence,productliability,andmedicalmalpractice.Inlegalapplications,thedangerofhindsightbiasisclear,inthatlawofmanynationsstatesthatadefendantmayonlybejudgedonthe

25basisofwhatheorshecouldreasonablyhaveknownatthetimeofaction.Knowledgethatisgatheredlater,suchasfromaccidentsceneinvestigations,forensictests,orthearbitrarydiscoveryofanoddlymisusedproduct,isdeemed

30irrelevantinevaluatingthequalityofthedecisionsmadeinthemoment,thatis,beforeafocalmishapoccurred.Asempiricalstudieshaveshown,however,hindsightbiasroutinelyafflictsjudgmentsofadefendant’spastconduct.

35 Therealityofhindsightbiasissometimesdifficulttoconveytoseasoneddecisionmakersbecausehindsightbiascanbeconfusedwithsimplelearningfromexperience.Individualandorganizationsinnovate,thrive,andprosperwhentheyanalyze

40mistakesandadjusttheirstrategiesaccordingly.Thisinterpretationfollowalongthelinesof“onlyfoolswouldn’tknowmoreafterlearninganoutcomethanbeforeitoccurred.”When,then,isknowledgebornofhindsightabenefittobe

45embraced,andwhenisitabiastobeavoided?Theanswerisinthetimingofmakingaconclusion.Knowledgebornofhindsightisappropriateandusefulwhendirectedatcurrentactionsandfutureplans,inwhichitinformsongoingstrategy.By

50contrast,knowledgebornofhindsightmayinvolve

errorwhendirectedatpastmomentsintime,asinevaluatingtheskillofdecisionmakerswhohadnocrystalballandsocouldnotpossiblyhaveknownwhatisknownnow.

55 Twomainexperimentalstrategiesdocumenthindsightbias:awithin-subjectmemorydesignandabetween-subjecthypotheticaldesign.Inthememorydesign,eachparticipantgivestwojudgments,onebeforeandoneafterafocal

60outcome.Forexample,beforeafootballgame,afanmightestimatethelikelihoodthatthehometeamwillwin.Afterafactualoutcomeisestablished(thehometeamdidinfactwin),thefanestimatesthelikelihoodofvictoryasitwas

65beforethegamewasplayed(whichmayinvolveattemptingtoretrieveone’searlierestimatefrommemory).Hindsightbiasisdefinedasthedifferencebetweentheforesightandhindsightlikelihoodestimates.

70 Thehypotheticaldesigninvolvesindependentexperimentalgroupsthateitherreceiveordonotreceiveoutcomeinformation.Returningtothefootballgameexample,bothgroupswouldseetheendingandlearnthatthehometeamhadwon

75(outcomeconditionvs.no-outcomecondition).Thenparticipantsintheno-outcomeconditionestimatethelikelihoodofahometeamvictory,whereasparticipantsintheoutcomeconditionareinstructedtodisregardtheirknowledgeofhowthe

80gameturnedoutandthenmakethissamelikelihoodjudgmentwhileimaginingthemselvestobeintheshoesofno-outcomeparticipants.Hindsightbiasisdefinedasthedifferencebetweenthesetwogroups’likelihoodestimates.

HindsightBiasamongEntrepreneurs

Ina2009studybyeconomistsGavinCassarandJustinCraig,hundredsofentrepreneurswhowerestartingnewbusinesswereaskedtoestimatethelikelihoodthattheirbusinesswouldbesuccessful.Yearslater,thosewhosebusinesshasfailedwereaskedtorecall,whentheyweregettingstarted,whattheyhadthoughttheirchancesofsuccesswere.

AdaptedfromDouglasE.Hough,IrrationalityinHealthCare:WhatBehavioralEconomicsRevealsaboutWhatWeDoandWhy.20