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BankingonAI
BankingTop10Trendsfor2024
Introduction
TheDigitalAgerevolutionizedbanking;expectevenmore
fromtheAgeofAI
Aquarterofacenturyagowestoodonthe
thresholdoftheDigitalAge.Amazonhadjustmadethebolddecisiontobroadenitssales
catalogbeyondbooks,Googlewaslaunchedtohelpusfindourwayaroundarapidly
expandinginternet,andwewereblissfully
unawarethatthedot-combubblewasabouttoburst.Afewyearsearlier,expectingdigitaltodisplaceourindustry’sincumbents,BillGatesfamouslydeclared:“Theworldneedsbanking,butitdoesnotneedbanks.”1
Digitaldidn’tdisappointus.Thepast25yearssawarevolutioninhowcompaniesworkandtheproductsandservicestheyoffer.Bankschangedfundamentally.Theirbranches,
whichusedtohandlevirtuallyallcustomer
interactions,todaydealwithonlyatiny
proportion.Theuseofcashdeclinedasnewwaysofpayingemerged.Withtechnologyhavingbecomeacriticaldifferentiator,andwithalmost$550billion2investedinthe
fintechsectorsince2010alone,theindustryexperiencedaninfluxofdigital-native
competitors.Theseincludedbothagile
start-upsandbigtechswithdeeppockets,hugecustomerbases,trovesofdataandunmatchedtechnologicalexpertise.
Yetdespitetheirbestefforts,nofintechhasmanagedtobreakintotheglobaltop-250listofbanksbyassets.3Itappearstheworlddoesneedbanksafterall.
AsweentertheAgeofAI,
manybankersfeelthe
samesenseofawethat
theircounterpartsdida
quarterofacenturyago.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20242
Introduction
Today,weagainstandonthevergeoftransformationalchange.
Theabilitytoprocessandanalyzevaststoresofdata,theenablingpowerofcloud,andtherapidmaturationofartificialintelligence
arecombiningtocreateawealthofopportunitiesforenhancementandinnovationacrossorganizations’operations,workforce,
productsandexperiences.
AsweentertheAgeofAI,manybankersfeelthesamesenseofawethattheircounterpartsdidaquarterofacenturyago.Theyknowthat,aswithdigitalization,verylittlewillremainuntouched.Thesetechnologiesareunlikelytochangewhatbankingdoes,buttheywilldramaticallytransformhowitdoesit.
Eachofthetrendswedescribeinthisreportiseithercausedor
amplifiedbyAI.We,togetherwithmostbankerstoday,arepeeringintothefuture:tryingtofigureoutwhatthistechnologyholdsfortheindustry.WeareconfidenttheAgeofAIwillchangebankingandmanyotherindustries;exactlyhow,wewillonlyknowin
retrospect.However,itiswewhogettochoosewhereandhowwewilluseAI.Thechallengeistoensureit’saforceforgoodthatbenefitsallhumankind.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20243
Introduction
OurTop10BankingTrends.
01
Theriseof
genAI
06
Time
tothink
cloudfirst
02
Capturing
thedigital
dividend
07
Regulation
recalibrated
03
Alltherisk
wecannotsee
08
From
technologyto
engineering
04
Awhole
newwayof
working
09
Thekey
tothecore
05
Thepower
ofpricing
10
Beyond
SixSigma
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20244
Trend:1
TheriseofgenAI
Banksarelikelytobenefitmorefromgenerative
AIthananyotherindustry.Ouranalysisofoperational
efficiencyindicatesapotentialtoboostproductivityby
22-30%,4whileafurtherstudyfoundthatrevenuecouldbeincreasedby6%.5Toachievetheseimprovements,however,itwillbenecessarynotonlytoutilizethecloudanddata
effectively,butalsotofundamentallyrethinkworkandtalent.
Trend1|TheriseofgenAI
“AIwillfundamentally
transformeverything,from
businesstoscienceto
societyitself.”6
Sweepingstatementslikethisareusuallygivenlittlecredenceinthesober
worldofbanking.ButthatwasbeforegenerativeAIcamealong.Suddenly
allbetsareoff,andbankersthroughouttheindustryarewondering
whetherthereisanypartofthebusinessthatwon’tsoonerorlaterbe
affected,ifnotactuallytransformed.
Withgoodreason.Werecentlyanalyzed19,265tasksacross900job
familiesin19industries,usingdatafromtheUSBureauofLaborStatistics
andothers.Thestudyincludedabreakdownofthetimespentoneachtask
andanassessmentofthepotentialforautomationandaugmentationby
generativeAI.Weconcludedthatbankingislikelytobemoreextensivelyimpactedthananyotherindustry,withalmostthree-quartersofallworkbeingwell-suitedtoautomationoraugmentation(Figure1).
6
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor2024
Trend1|TheriseofgenAI
BankingInsurance
CapitalMarkets
Software&Platforms
Health
Communications&Media
Retail
LifeSciences HighTech Travel AutomotivePublicService EnergyUtilities
Industrial
ConsumerGoods&Services
Aerospace&Defense
Chemicals
NaturalResources
Figure1.BankingislikelytobemoreprofoundlyimpactedbygenAIthananyotherindustry.
WorktimedistributionbyindustryandpotentialimpactofLLMs.
Lowpotentialfor
automationoraugmentation
Higherpotentialforautomation
Higherpotential
foraugmentation
39%34%27% 33%37%30% 32%37%31% 31%37%32% 42%25%33% 34%31%35% 36%28%36% 34%29%37% 31%31%38% 35%27%38% 34%27%39% 34%26%40% 35%23%42% 34%23%43% 33%24%43% 32%24%44% 30%26%44% 31%22%47% 31%19%50%
Note:Weightedbyemploymentlevels
intheUSin2022.Estimatesarebased
onhuman+machineidentification
oftheexposureofworktaskstothe
impactofgenerativeAI.
Source:AccentureResearchbased
onUSBLSandO*Net.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20247
Trend1|TheriseofgenAI
AIhasofcoursebeenaroundforalongtime;mosttech
historianscredittheEnglishmathematicianandcryptanalyst
AlanTuringwithhavingdevelopedtheconceptin1950.Whatisnewisthatcloud-basedgenerativeAIengineshavereachedthepointwheretheyaresurpassinghumancapabilitiesinimportantrespects.Theseprogressivelyadaptiveenginesareadvancingatanunprecedentedspeed,arousingbothwonderandalarminmostpartsofbusinessandsociety.
WithinmonthsofthelaunchofChatGPTattheendof2022,early
adoptersinthebankingindustrywereexploringthemostpromisingusecases.Today,littlemorethanayearlater,virtuallyeverybank
hasagenerativeAIstrategyofsomedescriptionandisrunningavarietyofproofsofconcept.Manyarereportingimpressiveresults.Thenext12monthswillseescaledadoptionacrossmultiplepartsoftheorganization,withthemoreambitiousbanksusingitasthefoundationforwhatwecall
TotalEnterpriseReinvention
.
Ouranalysisindicatesthattherearehundredsofusecasesfor
generativeAIinbanking.Productivityisthemostobviousbenefit.AsFigure2shows,thereisgreaterpotentialtoboostoutputin
bankingthaninanyotherindustry.
Banking
InsuranceCapitalMarkets
Software&Platforms
Communications&Media
LifeSciences
HighTech
Retail
PublicService
TravelEnergy
Utilities
Aerospace&Defense
Health
IndustrialAutomotive
Chemicals
ConsumerGoods&Services
NaturalResources
22%30% 20%28%19%28%19%27%
14%14%
14%
20%20%
20%
13%
13%
19%
18%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
11%
11%
17%
16%
16%
16%
16%
15%
15%
10%
14%
9%
9%
13%
12%
Figure2.Bankscanimprove
theirproductivitybyupto30%
byadoptinggenerativeAI.
Potentialhourssavedbyindustry,
valuatedatUSannualoccupation
headcountandwagesof2022.
USvalueonly.
Note:Estimatesarebasedonhuman
+machineidentificationofworktasks
exposuretotheimpactofgenerativeAI.
Source:AccentureResearchbasedon
USBLSandO*Netdata.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20248
Trend1|TheriseofgenAI
Thesegainsarebeingrealizedinawide
varietyofareas,fromduediligenceandriskandcompliancetolegalcontractgenerationandcodewriting.However,webelieve
themostsignificantfinancialimpactwill
beinhelpingbanksincreaserevenue.Our
modelsshowthatbypairingAIwithpeopletoofferpersonalizedwealthadvisory,guidecommercialrelationshipconversations,tailorproductsforindividualcustomers,enhancethequalityofcontactcenterinteractions,
andstreamlinetheirproductapplicationandonboardingprocesses,bankscanimprovetheirrevenueby6%ormorewithinthree
years.7
Functionsotherthansales,marketingand
customerinteractionthatarelikelytoreceive
earlyattentionareriskmanagementand
compliance,technology,HRandlegal.
GenerativeAIoffersCEOsthechancetoreshapetheir
bank,empowertheirpeople,amplifytheirproductivityand
increaseprofitability.Butmostexecutivesrecognizethatit
cannotdothisonitsown;torealizeitsfullpotentialitneeds
toworkintandemwithhumaningenuity.Forthisreason
alone,anyAIstrategyneedstohavetheworkforceatits
core.ThesuccessfuldeploymentofAInotonlydemands
asetofskillsthatfewbankshaveinsufficientnumbers,
butalsorequiressignificantchangesinwhatpeopledo
andhowtheydotheirwork.Banksthatmanagethisaspect
effectivelywillhaveabigadvantageastheyexploreand
unraveltheexcitingpossibilitiesofAI.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor20249
Trend:2
Capturingthe
digitaldividend
Whilemostbankshavemastereddigital,itsfocus—more
oftenthannot—hasbeenonservicing.Turningevena
modestnumberofdigitalinteractionsintoopportunities
holdsimmensepotential.Todothat,bankswillneedtofind
waystohavemeaningfulconversationswithcustomers
acrossdigitalchannels.AImayholdthekey.
Trend2|Capturingthedigitaldividend
Afteraquarterofacenturyofdigitalizingtheiroperations,channels,
andexperiences,withastrongfocusonservicingjourneys,banks
cancongratulatethemselvesforhavingmastereddigital.
Virtuallyeverybankhasamobileappthat
workseffectively:itmanagesthemajorityof
customerinteractions,istypicallyratedwell
over4outof5bycustomersand—together
withdigitalenhancementselsewhereinthe
organization—continuestodeliverbigefficiencygainsandconvenienceforcustomers.
Yettherehavebeenunwelcomeside-effects.Byshiftingcustomerengagementoutofthebranchandontotheirdigitalchannels,banks’experienceshavebecomefunctionallycorrectbutemotionallyvoid.Andatthesametimeastheirpersonalconnectionwithcustomershasweakened,sohasbanks’abilitytodifferentiatethemselves:Accenture’sLifeTrends2024
survey8foundthat42%ofconsumersfindithardtodistinguishbetweenfinancialservicesbrands.Intheprocess,customerloyalty
hasweakened.Theaverageconsumerhas6.3financialservicesproducts,only
halfofwhicharefromtheirprimarybank—73%acquiredatleastonefinancialservicesproductfromanewproviderinthepast
12months.9
Digitalizationhasimprovedbanks’ability
tosolvecustomers’mostbasicneeds,but
conversationsabouttheirfinancialaspirationsandhowthebankcanhelpthemachievetheirgoalshavebecomeincreasinglyrare.Yetthegoalofincreasingtheproportionofdigital
salesdependsonit.
Thegoodnewsisthatcustomersstilltrustbanksandaresendingthemclearsignalsofwhattheywant.Tocapturethefullpotentialofdigital,banksneedtoimprovetheirabilitytorespondtothesesignals.Thisincludes
shiftingtheirthinkingaboutdigitalfrom“servicing”to“conversations”.
BBVAisonebankthathassucceededatthis.
By2017itwasusingitsdigitalchannelsformost
ofitscustomerservicing,butforonly25%of
productsales.*Fiveyearslaterthepicturehad
changed:61%ofitssaleswereclosedonthe
bank’sdigitalchannels,anditscost-to-income
ratiohadfallenfromapproximately50%to
43%(seealsopage13).
Toincreasetheirpercentageofdigitalsales,
banksaregettingbetteratpersonalizingtheir
interactions.Likemanyserviceproviders,Bank
ofAmericaaskscustomersforfeedbackevery
timetheyengagewiththeorganization.Itnow
hasmorethan50millionresponses.Butinstead
ofjustaggregatingthatdatatogainabetter
understandingofitscustomerbaseasawhole,
thebank’sprimaryaimistofocusonindividual
customers:howtheyfeel,whattheywant,and
howtheirexperiencescouldbeimproved.10
*Measuredbythepercentageoftotallifetimeeconomicvalueofallproductssold.BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202411
Trend2|Capturingthedigitaldividend
Currently,asour2022analysisof41leadingbanksacrosstenmarketsshows,lessthan
15%ofthemprovidecomprehensiverewardsforcustomerswhoincreasethenumber
ofproductsandservicestheyuseorthetransactionstheyconductwiththebank.Theabilitytotreateachcustomerasanindividualcanmakeabigdifferencetoboththecustomerandthebank,buttoooftenpersonalizationgoeslittlefurtherthandeliveringbanneradvertisements.
In2024,agrowingnumberofbankswill
seektorealizeagreaterreturnontheir
investmentindigitalbyusingtheirvast
storesofcustomerdataandadvanced
analyticsandAIcapabilitiestomovebeyondbasicdemographicsegmentationandstarttreatingcustomersasindividuals.Thiswill
notonlymakecustomersfeelmorespecial,increasingtheirloyalty.Itwillalsoallowthese
bankstogainabetterunderstandingofeachcustomer’scircumstances,andtoreachoutproactivelywithempathy,timelyadviceandrelevantoffers.Wecallthisapproach‘life-
centricity’.Whenyoufeelrecognizedand
appreciated,whywouldyoubuyelsewhere?
Asbankscommittohavingconversations
withcustomers,thelogicoflife-centricity
ratherthanproduct-centricitybecomesmorecompelling,andweexpecttoseecorporatestructureschangingtoreflectthis.Thiswill
havemanybenefits,forbothparties.Whenthebankingapp—consumers’second-mostimportantconsumertechnologyaftertheircar8—becomesmorethanjustameansofcheckingaccountbalancesandmaking
paymentsbutprovidesasteadyflowof
valuable,tailoredadviceandpropositions,therelationshipbetweenthetwobecomesmoretrusting,durableandproductive.
Bankcustomers,inthe
past12months,used
branchesmorethanany
otherchanneltoopen
accounts,getadviceand
acquirenewproducts.
Almost2outof3turn
tobranchestosolve
specificandcomplicated
problems.
Source:AccentureGlobalBanking
ConsumerStudy,2023.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202412
Trend2|Capturingthedigitaldividend
BBVAisagoodexampleofabankthathastransformedits
operatingmodelto(amongotherthings)developanend-to-endpersonalizationcapability,optimizeitscustomerexperiences,
andimprovetheeffectivenessofitscustomeracquisitionandcross-selling.Justoneofthemetricsithasannouncedisa30%improvementinitsconversionrateforauto-loansales.11
Theultimateobjectiveistoofferthesameauthentic,personal
experiencethroughdigitalchannelsasbankshavealwaysdone
face-to-faceintheirbranches.Commerzbankbelievesitsnew
mobilevirtualassistantwilldothis,enablingprivateandsmall-
businesscustomerstohavenaturalandengagingconversationsongeneraltopicsaswellasforfinancialadvice.12Bycombiningtheconvenienceandefficiencyofdigitalwiththecontextualrelevancethatcomesfromadeeperandmoretimelyunderstandingofeachcustomer,bankswillbeabletoshiftagrowingproportionoftheirsalestodigitalwhilesimultaneouslyreinforcingtrustandloyalty.
Thisisthedigitaldividendtheyhavebeen
pursuingforsolong.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202413
In2024,banksrisks:some
haveidentifiedPlanningfor
Trend:3
Alltherisk
wecannotsee
willbeconfrontedbyavarietyoffamiliar,otherslesspredictable.We
fivethatwethinkdeserveattention.theunplannedwillpaydividends.
Trend3|Alltheriskwecannotsee
Withhindsight,allrisksareobvious.
Yetasweentered2023,nooneforesawthatabankfailureinCaliforniawould
escalateintoaregionalbankingpanic
andultimatelyleadtothemergerof
Switzerland’slasttwomajorbanks.
Giventhefar-reachingconsequencesofeventssuchasthese,
banksneedtoimprovetheirplanningforriskswecannotalways
see.Thisisespeciallytrueasstabilitycontinuestoeludethe
industryandthemarketsitserves.InourlatestRiskSurvey,
72%ofseniorbankingriskprofessionalssaidtheirorganization’s
riskmanagementcapabilitiesandprocesseshavefailedto
keeppacewiththerapidlychangingrisklandscape.13
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202415
Trend3|Alltheriskwecannotsee
It’sobviouslyimpossibletoknow
exactlywhatrisks2024willbring,
buthereareafewideastogetthe
conversationstarted:
01
Bankshaveinvestedvastamounts
inbolsteringtheircyberdefences.
However,inNovemberlastyear,aransomwareattackontheUS
subsidiaryoftheChinesebankICBCnearlycrashedtheUS30-year
TreasuryauctionandforcedparticipantstotradebyusingUSBpen
drives.14TheadventofgenerativeAIhashandedhackersanotherpotentweapon,enablingthemtoattackallofbanks’surfaceswithdeepfakesthatcandeceivevoiceanalysisandotherdefences,amplifyphishing
attacks,andcreatemuchmorecomplexandelusiveviruses.In2024,asthelikelihoodofsuchattackssucceedingedgestowardtheinevitable,bankswillshiftthefocusoftheirstrategiesfrompreventiontoresilience.
TheytoowillusegenerativeAI—notonlytodetectattacksbutalsotoincreasethefrequency,depthandscopeoftheirscenarioplanning,andtolooknotonlyattheimmediateimplicationsofacyberbreachbutalsothesecond-andthird-ordereffects—andhowtheyshouldprepareandrespond.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor2024
16
Trend3|Alltheriskwecannotsee
02
Almost17yearsofnear-zerorateshas
causedhousepricestorisestrongly.
Thereisagrowingriskofstressedcustomersdefaultingontheir
mortgagesasratesremainhighandsalaryincreasesfailtooffset
consumerpriceinflation.InasampleofWesternmarkets,theriseinthepriceofhouseshassignificantlyexceededtheaveragegrowthinhouseholddisposableincomesince2015(Figure3).Asratesremainelevatedandlowpre-Covidmortgagesrolloff,theriskofstressed
consumersdefaultingrises,evenwhereunemploymentislow.
Thequestionthenis:willgovernmentsallowlargenumbersof
employedbuthard-pressedhome-ownerstolosetheirpropertiesorwillweseesomeinterestingpublic/privatepartnerships—theCanadiangovernmentisalreadytalkingaboutinterventionstohelpcitizens
crushedbyrisingrates.15Inour2023GlobalRiskSurvey,only35%of172bankingexecutivessaidtheirorganizationisfullyabletoassesstherisksassociatedwithinterestrateincreases.16Thisalonesuggestsalowlevelofreadinesstointerveneifthesituationturnsugly.
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Figure3.Theaveragehousepricehasrisenmorethan
personaldisposableincome.
Evolutionofhousepricesandpersonaldisposable
incomeacrossselectedmajoreconomies*
Indexed:2013Q1=100
Housepriceindex
Personaldisposableincomeindex
20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
*Overallindicescalculatedassimpleaveragesofhousepriceandpersonaldisposable
incomeindicesfor:Australia,Belgium,Canada,Germany,Spain,France,UK,Italy,
Switzerland,NetherlandsandUS
Source:AccentureResearchbasedonFederalReserveBankofDallas
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202417
Trend3|Alltheriskwecannotsee
03
Thestatusofcommercialrealestate(CRE)issimilarlyprecarious.
Alothasbeenwrittenaboutitrecently,andthebankruptciesofSignaDevelopment17andWeWorkhavehighlighted
whatmaybethemostpublicizedriskinwaiting.Aswith
mortgages,15yearsofnear-zeroratesfollowedbyasuddenrise,combinedwithashifttowork-from-home,hasleftmanycommercialpropertydevelopersandreal-estateowners
inaperilousposition.Itisaglobalrisk,andCREdebtandequityareheldnotonlybybanksbutalsobyotherplayersthroughoutthefinancialindustry—oftenbeyondthescopeofregulators(seeFigure4).
Figure4.Commercialrealestateexposureconstitutesasignificantshareof
GDPandofbanks’andotherfinancialinstitutions’balancesheets.
CREdebtas%ofGDP
18%
Banks
BankloanexposuretoCRE
%oftotalassets,Dec2022
12%
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%
Sweden USA NorwayNetherlands Germany Belgium AustraliaItaly
Spain
France
US
Europe
Ownersof
Others
13%
14%
38%
15%
21%
CREdebt
USonly
Commercial
mortage-backed
securities
Insurance
Agenciesandgovernment-sponsoredentities
Source:AccentureResearchbasedonIMF:GlobalFinancial
StabilityReport,October2023,andReserveBankofAustralia:
FinancialStabilityRisksfromCommercialRealEstate.
BankingonAI|BankingTop10Trendsfor202418
Trend3|Alltheriskwecannotsee
04
Theriseinshadowbanking.
Intheaftermathofthe2008FinancialCrisis,off-balance-sheetlendingbecameapriorityforregulators,whointroduced
wavesofBaselregulationsaswellasmanylocalmeasures.
Thiscausedbankstodialbacktheirrisk.Butthequestionis:
hasthatriskgone,orhavewejustmoveditoutofsight?Banksholdlessthan50%offinancialassets(Figure5)andtheshareofUSnon-bankmortgageoriginationhasballoonedfrom
9%in2010to62%in2022.18Isanyonemonitoringthatrisk,andwhatwouldtheinevitablefalloutbeforbanks,insurancecompaniesandpensionfundsshouldthisturnbad?
Figure5.Non-bankfinancialinstitutionsholdnearly
60%oftheprivatesector’stotalglobalfinancialassets.
$trillions.Financialassetsheldbycentralbanksandpublicfinancialinstitutionsareexcluded.
$332
$335
$361
$396
$422
57%
56%
56%
$209
$210
$224
$236
$251
$263
$284
$294
$315
55%
56%
55%
54%
54%
53%
51%
49%
50%
50%
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