Q2全球基础设施投资收益指南

EQUITIESIntellectualPropertyGlobalInfrastructure

Inside2Q19guidetoyieldinvesting

Macquarie'sglobalinfrastructurepicks2

1Q19guidetoyieldinvesting6Keypoints

Macquarie*sfundamentalviews10Lowerperceivedriskofrisingratesisdrivingutilitysharepriceperformancein

EuropeandtheUS.

Utilities13

WecontinuetothinkUStelecomshavetoworkhardertopreservetheir

Telecom21premiumsover2yr/1OyrTreasuries.

TransportationInfrastructure41»ICTPM.PLNGINand2778HKhaveOPratingsandarethetop-ratedinfra

RealestateandREITS53stocksbyourquantteam.

Yieldsummarycharts62

Thefundamentalview

Highestcurrentdividendyields67

Macro:Aspricegrowthaccelerates,ourEconomicsDeskStrategyteamexpectsthe

Fastestdividendgrowth68

Fedwillregainitshikingbiasin2H19,supportingourforecastforonehikebytheend

MacquarieAlphaModel69oftheyearandanotherin2020.OureconomistsbelievetheUS10-yearTyield

EnergyInfrastructure76shouldrisegraduallyto2.85%byend-19and3.25%byend-20.Itremainstobeseen

whethertheglobaleconomicslowdownisthebeginningofthenextglobalrecession,

Utilities78

oratemporarydipthatwillquicklyreverse,butoureconomicsteamtakescomfort

TelecommunicationInfrastructure81fromthefactthatmajorcentralbankshaveturnedonadimeandarenowactingto

TransportationInfrastructure84shoreupgrowth.

RealEstate87Topideasfor2Q19:(1)AmongUSregulatedelectricutilitieswefavorlarge-cap

valuestocks,AEPUSandSOUSinparticular.AESUSandEXCUSremainourtop

MacquarieDataSet90

picksamongdiversifiedutilities.InEurope,lowerperceivedriskofrisingratesis

drivingutilityperformance,benefitingregulatednamesandutilitiesleveringupwith

organiccapex.OurtoppicksinEuropeareNTGYSM,TRNIM,andEDPPL.Wepick

ASTAUamongAustralianregulatedutilities,andORGAUamongunregulated

names.InJapan,9505JPisourfavorite,and9513JPleastfavorite.InMalaysia,our

favoriteremainsTNBMKandinNewZealand-MELNZandCENNZ.(2)OfUS

telecomswecontinuetofavorTUSalthoughwethinktheyieldtelecomshaveto

workhardertopreservetheirpremiums.InEurope,wepickORAFPfordeliveryand

strategicshiftandINWIMforstrongdividendoutlookandscale.WelikeCNUNZin

NewZealandandSTSPinSingapore.(3)IntheAustralianinfrastructuresector,our

toppickisALXAU,andinNewZealandwelikeZELNZ.(4)Forrealestate,welike

GMTNZinNewZealand,MSPSJinSouthAfrica,andPHNXINinIndia.

Thequantview

Thetopquantpickgoesto87001HKwithanalphascoreof2.1,followedbyICTPM,

PLNGIN,600009CH,and2778HK.MoredetailsstartingonP69.

Ourtopglobalstockcalls

Wherefundamentalsandquantoverlap:ICTPM,PLNGINand2778HKhaveOP

ratingsandarethetop-ratedinfrastocksbyourquantteam,whileGLOPM,ILDFP

andBGRIMTBhavedualnegativeconviction(P74).

AnalystsWhereqrowthandyieldoverlap:ZELNZ,ATLIM,DRIGR,ENBCNandVKESJ

MacquarieCapital(USA)Inc.arestocksofferingastrongcombinationofbothNTMyields(5.5-9.8%)andDPS

AngieStorozynski+12122312569growth(6-50%pa)(P66).

angie.storozynski@

Pleaserefertopage98forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite

/research/disclosures.

MacquarieResearchGlobalInfrastructure

Macquarie'sglobalinfrastructurepicks

Fig1Favouritesandleastfavourites(seecommentsstartingonpage7)

Favorites

CompanyTickerRatingRegionPriceTP

Utilities

ContactEnergyCENNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$6.81NZ$6.26

NaturgyEnergyGroupNTGYSMOutperformEurope€25.3€25.5

TernaTRNIMOutperformEurope€5.59€5.9

EDP-EnergiesdePortugalEDPPLOutperformEurope€3.52€3.8

HokurikuElectricPowerCompany9505JPOutperformJapan¥851¥1060

TenagaNasionalTNBMKOutperformMalaysiaRM12.6RM15.8

SouthernCompanySOUSOutperformUnitedStates$51.4$52

AmericanElectricPowerAEPUSOutperformUnitedStates$82.88$85

TelecommunicationServices

OrangeORAFPOutperformEurope€14.82€16.3

AT&TTUSOutperformUnitedStates$32.29$35

SingTelSTSPOutperformSingaporeS$3.06S$4.12

InwitINWIMOutperformEurope€7.96€9

ChorusCNUNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$6NZ$5.25

RealEstateandREITs

GoodmanPropertyTrustGMTNZOutperformNewZealandNZ$1.7NZ$1.78

MASRealEstateMSPSJOutperformSouthAfricaR22R25

PhoenixMillsPHNXINOutperformIndiaRS645.7RS700

TransportationInfrastructure

AtlasArteriaALXAUOutperformAustraliaA$7.11A$7.31

AucklandInternationalAirportAIANZOutperformNewZealandNZ$8.05NZ$8.02

EnergyInfrastructure

ZEnergyZELNZOutperformNewZealandNZ$6.34NZ$7.14

LeastFavorites

CompanyTickerRatingRegionPriceTP

Utilities

ElectricPowerDevelopmentCo9513JPNeutralJapan¥2681¥2740

PPLPPLUSUnderperformUnitedStates$31.83$27

DukeEnergyDUKUSNeutralUnitedStates$89.88$88.5

VectorVCTNZNeutralNewZealandNZ$3.51NZ$3.5

TelecommunicationServices

CenturyLinkCTLUSUnderperformUnitedStates$12.4$12

DiGDIGIMKUnderperformMalaysiaRM4.7RM4.02

TelstraCorporationTLSAUUnderperformAustraliaA$3.27A$2.9

RealEstateandREITs

VitalHealthcarePropertyTrustVHPNZUnderperformNewZealandNZ$2.14NZ$2.07

FortressREITFFASJUnderperformSouthAfricaR18.7R17.9

TransportationInfrastructure

SydneyAirportSYDAUUnderperformAustraliaA$7.27A$6.69

Source:FactSet,MacquarieCapital(USA),April2019.AllpricesareasofApr8,2019.

9April20192

M

a

TheMacquarieInfrastructureIndexoutperformedMSCIin1Q19c

q

u

a

Rebalancedquarterlyandequallyweighted,theindexgoeslongallcoveredglobalinfrastockswithmktcaps>US$1bnandNTMyields>1%whichhadOutperformn

ratings(93)andshortthosewithUnderperformratings(19).e

eR

In1Q19,theIndexreturnedanet9.7%vstheMSCIWorldInfrastructurebenchmark's+8.9%.Sinceinceptionatthebeginningof1Q16,theIndexhasreturned+37%es

(+10%annualized)vs+13%(+4%annualized)forthebenchmark.a

cr

h

Fig2Macquariehas272infrastructurestocksundercoverageworldwide,coveredby44fundamentalanalystsacross16countries

UK/EUROPE—ASIA

UNITEDSTATES

,5analystsHongKong/CtwiaMalaysia

-2

•40infrastructurestocks.4anatysts•3analysts

-40inhirestocks

-20vifrastiucturestocks•17hfrastiucturestocks

tmfia

-3analysts•3analysis

•2

11tifrastmctunestocks•7rifrastiucturestocks

•13iiturest

MonesiaS^igapore

-2analysts•2analysis

•6infrastiiJdurestocks•9nfrastiucturestocks

JapanIhaiand

•3analysts•2analysts

•17rifrastnjcturestocks•1rifrastiucturestocks

Korea

-1analyst

•1infrastmcturestock

AUSTRALIA

•7analysts

-36iifrastmctufestocks

SOUTHAFRICA

NEWZEALAND

•2analysts

•3analysts

•30vifrastiucturestocks

•18infrastnjchimstocks

Source:MacquarieCapital(USA),April2019

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AngieStorozynskiJoseRuizMahirHamdulayR

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+12122312569angie.storozynski@+442030371912jose.ruiz@+27218132705mahir.hamdulay@e