美国网络设备与IT硬件市场手册

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

J.RMorganJanuary2020

NetworkingEquipment&ITHardware

MarketingBook

TopPicks:QCOM,AAPL,LITE,CIEN

Top5GPicks:QCOM,AAPL,LITE,CIEN,COMM

TopAvoids:AAOI,ANET

TopGrowthPicks:QCOM,AAPL,LITE,CIEN

TopValuePicks:CSCO,COMM

ITHardware/NetworkingEquipment-Equity

SamikChatterjeeACJosephCardosoBharatDaryani

212-622-0798212-622-9036212-622-8039

samik.x.chatterjee@joseph.cardoso@bharat.daryani@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited

Bloombera：JPMAChatterjee

Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmay

haveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheir

investmentdecision.

JPMorgan

J.P.MorganResearchCoverageUniverseofITHardware/

NetworkingEquipmentStocks

OverweightNeutralUnderweightNotRated

NetworkinaEauipmentCiena(CIEN)Corning(GLW)AppliedOptoelectronics(AAOI)

Cisco(CSCO)F5Networks(FFIV)Arista(ANET)

CommScope(COMM)Fabrinet(FN)

ll-VI(IIVI)Infinera(INFN)

Lumentum(LITE)Juniper(JNPR)

Viavi(VIAV)

OverweightNeutralUnderweightNotRated

ITHardwareApple(AAPL)Amphenol(APH)

Qualcomm(QCOM)Sensata(ST)

TEConnectivity(TEL)

J.PMorgan

Page

NetworkingEquipmentCoverageCompSheet04

SectorPerformance08

IndustryThemesfor202009

CompanySections44

Appendix:CompanyModels95

AllPricingasof1/3/203JPMorgan

Dec-2OUpside/BasicMarketCapLatest

CompanyTickerPriceRa，，n8LatestCashNetDebtEVAdj.EV

TargetPriceDownsideShares($mns)Debt

o

AppliedOptoelectronicsAAOI12.12UW11o72(20)224

AristaANET200.85uw180o2,447(2,447)12,89S

CienaCIEN41.87ow51o843(154)6,296

CiscoCSCO47.63ow58o28,0350,538)192,521

CommScopeCOMM13.57ow19o6099,52412,672

CorningGLW29.60N32o9715,5S928,325

F5NetworksFFIV140.00N158o1,31441,149)9,191

FabrinetFN65.95N63o436(375)2,065

ll-VIIIVI34.30OW45o4731,9055,021

InfineraINFN8.11N7o1213451,811

JuniperNetworksJNPR24.34N28o2,800(1,010)7,137

LumentumLITE81.90OW86o831IS6,338

ViaviVIAV15.07N15527583,520

SalesEBITDAEES

Company

NTM20182O19E2O2OENTIVI20182O19E2O2OENTM20182O19E2O2OE

AppliedOptoelectronics190221(0.60)1.04(0.90)(0.40)

Arista2,4082,4469.057.959.509.80

Ciena3,5723,8452.751.412.112.75

Cisco51,90450,8483.312.603.093.27

CommScope8,3399,2821.992.271.992.35

Corning11,52711,8891.751.781.741.95

F5Networks2,2422,3869.759.9010.389.75

Fabrinet1,5841,6704.062.983.813.85

ll-VI1,3622,2932.092.042.712.00

Infinera1,2971,465(0.05)(0.37)(0.66)0.08

JuniperNetworks4,4264,4711.871.891.721.90

Lumentum1,5651,7665.343.834.255.20

Viavi1,1301,1850.750.460.680.73

GrossDebt/EBITDANetDebt/EBITDAEBITMarginEBITDAIVIarRic

Company

20182O19E2O2OE20182O19E2O2OE20182O19E2O2OE20182O19E2O2OE

AppliedOptoelectronics2.Ox3.OxO.OxNA-O.8x4.8%-13.1%-4.1%15.9%-0.9%7.9%

AristaO.OxO.Ox-2.lx-2.8x-3.Ox36.7%38.0%38.4%38.0%39.4%39.7%

Ciena2.Oxl.Ox-O.2x-O.6x-O.9x10.9%13.1%15.6%13.6%15.6%18.1%

Cisco1.5xl.Ox-2.6x-O.5x-O.Sx31.1%32.2%33.5%35.6%35.9%37.0%

CommScope4.4x6.3x3.8x7.5x5.8x18.3%13.4%14.4%20.0%15.1%16.4%

Corning1.8x2.lxO.9x1.7x2.Ox18.4%17.1%18.2%29.0%28.5%28.7%

F5NetworksO.8xO.8x-O.4x-O.4x-O.5x36.1%34.3%31.2%38.9%37.4%34.2%

FabrinetO.4xO.3x-1.3x-2.2x-2.7x8.9%9.1%9.2%11.0%11.0%11.1%

ll-VI1.7x5.3xO.8xO.9x4.lx14.9%15.4%13.0%21.9%21.7%19.4%

Infinera7.8x3O.8x3.7x2.8x21.4x2.3x-5.0%-6.8%2.6%5.6%1.2%8.6%

JuniperNetworks2.Ox1.7x-O.8x-O.5x-O.4x18.1%16.6%17.6%22.6%21.4%22.3%

Lumentum1.4x2.2x-O.3xO.2x-O.4x19.7%20.5%24.8%25.7%26.8%31.8%

Viavi5.lx2.2x-2.4xO.2xO.Ox14.2%17.5%18.4%18.4%21.0%22.4%

Average2.lx2.lx2.3x-O.4xO.3xO.3x20.7%20.7%21.3%25.0%24.9%25.6%

EV/EBITDAEZE2020

Company

NTM20182O19E2O2OENTM20182O19E2O2OEEV/SalesP/Eex-cashEV/FCFFFCFYield

AppliedOptoelectronics20.5x5.3xNA12.9xNA11.7xNANAl.OxNANANA

Arista14.3x15.8x13.6x13.3x22.2x25.2x21.lx20.5x5.3x17.2x17.8x5%

Ciena9.lx15.Ox11.3x9.lx15.2x29.7x19.9x15.2x1.6x14.9x14.2x6%

CiscolO.2x11.OxlO.3xlO.2x14.4x18.3xlS.4x14.6x3.8x13.9x13.6x7%

CommScope9.Ox13.9xlO.Ox8.3x6.8x6.Ox6.8x5.8x1.4x23.2x12.Ox20%

Corning9.9x8.6x8.6x8.3x16.9x16.7X17.OX15.2x2.4x18.9x39.6x2%

F5Networks11.3x10.9x11.Ox11.3x14.4x14.lx13.5x14.4x3.9x12.8x14.5x6%

Fabrinet1O.8X13.6x11.9x11.2x16.2x22.lx17.3x17.lx1.2x14.5x17.2x5%

ll-VI9.7x19.8x17.Ox11.3x16.4x16.8x12.7x17.lx2.2x26.2xNA2%

InfineraNANANA14.4xNANANANA1.2xNANANA

JuniperNetworks7.2x6.8x7.6x7.2x13.Ox12.9x14.2x12.8x1.6x11.2x12.7x7%

Lumentum11.Ox19.8x15.lx11.3x15.3x21.4x19.3x15.7x3.6x15.8x20.lx5%

Viavi12.9x21.7x14.8x13.3x20.2x32.5x22.3x20.6x3.Ox21.Ox28.8x3%

AveragelO.Sx14.3x11.9x1O.4X14.9x19.Ox15.8x14.9x2.7x17.2x19.lx6%

S15CommIndex1O.8X1O.8X1O.4XNA15.4x15.5x14.5X14.7X

Source:BloombergandJ.PMorganEstimates4J.PMorgan

Dec-20Upside/BasicMarketCapLatestLatest

CompanyTickerPriceRatingNetDebtEVAdj.EV

TargetPriceDownsideShares($mns)DebtCash

AppleAAPL297.4OW2960%4,4431,321,560108,047207,278(99,231)-1,222,329

QualcommQCOM87.0ow10824%1,14299,36315,93312,2603,673-103,036

SensataST53.7N52