PenetrationCurve(英文版)知识课件

PenetrationCurve(英文版)知识课件Author:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.2Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexleMethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.3

Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:earlyadoption/trialmassadoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineTheproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)4ProductLife-Cycle

TimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct5CharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves

Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:duration/speedofproductlife-cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind:6Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexleMethodology7ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves

Validating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket.8Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexleMethodology9

In1994,theNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria(H.Pylori).Whilepreviously,doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti-secretorydrugs,NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH.Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics.Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms,buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease.In1997,anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU.S.PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH.PyloriabloodtestforH.PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH.Pyloriusingtissueslesobtainedthroughendoscopy,arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtestsSituation:HowlargeisthemarketforH.Pyloritestsovertime?KeyQuestion:ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange.DisguisedCaseSituation(1of2)10

Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995,only5%ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH.Pyloriin1991,thefigurewascloseto1%InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors’behavior,ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997:60%saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH.Pylori15%saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics---withoutfirsttestingforH.Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda“ceiling”ontesting:15%ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH.PyloriwithouttestingforitResearch:Historicpenetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationCurveData:Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys,theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints,aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint.DisguisedCaseSituation(2of2)11H.PyloriTestingMarket

=datapoint=predictedpenetrationcurve

(basedonregression)Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS-curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH.Pyloritests.12Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexleMethodology13

Gatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheet

Picksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct’spenetration(i.e.noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer,eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios)saturationpoint=100%inthisexleCalculatepenetrationratio(historicpercent)/(saturationpoint-historicpercent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatioMethodology(1of3)14

198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatio7.5957.5967.5977.597ln(year