牛津经济研究院-预测美国千禧一代财富的增长-2025-04-宏观大势

FORECASTINGTHEGROWTHOF

MILLENNIALWEALTHINTHEUS

Wealthfront

April2025

2

Contents

Section1Methodologicaloverview03

Section2Keyfindings05

Section3Appendix10

Methodology

overview

Methodologicalapproach

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Weuseabottom-upapproachthatfollows8coresteps.TheUSmillennialwealthforecastcombinesincome,savings,andwealthtrendsseeninpreviousgenerationswithmacroeconomicforecastsfromOxfordEconomics’

GlobalEconomicModel

(GEM).

CalculatetheevolutionofthesavingsratefortheaverageUSmillennialhouseholdrelativetothenationalsavingrate.

Forecasttheevolutionofhouseholdincomefortheaveragemillennialhouseholdrelativetonationalincomelevels.

Estimatetheevolutionofassetallocationformillennialhouseholds.

Forecastthevalueofmillennials’liabilitiesandconsumerdurablesrelativetothenationallevelcapturingchangesashouseholdsage.*

Forecastthenumberofmillennialhouseholds.

MapassetsandliabilitiestoGEMforecaststocapturereturnsonexistingassetstockandnationalasset/liabilitytrends.

Combinesteps1–6forabottom-upforecastoftotalassetgrowth/portfoliocompositionformillennialhouseholds.

Projecttheshareofassetsandliabilitiesbyincomegroupsacrossthemillennialcohort.

*Thesecategoriesaresplitoutbecausetheyarenotcapturedbytherelationshipbetweenthesavingsrateandincomebutarerequiredtoestimatemillennials’netwealth.

Keyfindings

Annualgrowthinmillennialnetwealthisexpectedtobearound

9%ininflationadjustedtermsovertheforecastperiod

•CombiningOxfordEconomics'macroeconomicforecastswiththemodellingassumptionsetoutintheprevioussection,wehaveproducedaforecastformillennialnetwealthattheaggregate,asset,andcentilelevel.

Millennialnetwealthisexpectedtocontinueto

accumulaterapidly…

…outpacinggrowthintotalnationalwealthas

millennials’savingsratesandincomespeakinmiddleage

Trillions$

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

20102015202020252030203520402045

Millennialnetwealth(nominal)Millennialnetwealth(Real2024prices)Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Annualaveragechange,%,2022-2045

11.3%

8.7%

5.8%

3.3%

12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

MillennialnetMillennialnetTotalnetwealthTotalnetwealth

wealth(nominal)wealth(real)(nominal)(real)

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

*Realwealthandannualgrowthareusedthroughouttheremainderofthepresentation.

Historicalcomparison

Growthinthewealthtoincomeratioashouseholdsagefollowsatrendthatisconsistentwithpreviousgenerations

Ratio:Netwealthdividedbyincome

•Theanalysisbringstogetherforecastsforincomes,savingsrates,assetgrowth,andassetallocationovertimeforthemillennialcohort.

•Thisbottom-upanalysisshowsthatthenetwealthtoincomeratioformillennialsissimilartothepathobservedforpreviousgenerations.

9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0

252831343740434649525558

BoomerGenx

MillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

*Thex-axisrepresentsthemidpointageofthegenerationalcohort.

Wealthheldineachassetclassgrowssteadilyovertheforecast,

butpensionandequitywealthhavethehighestgrowthrate

•Thechangeinpreviousgenerations’assetallocationareusedtoforecasttheassetdistributionofwealthformillennials.

•Thiscapturesexpectedchangesinthestructureofmillennialhouseholds’portfoliosastheyage.

Millennialhouseholdsholdwealthprimarilyinreal

estate,equity,andpensionsassetsthroughoutthe

forecast

Trillions$

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

44

48

30

35

22

21

-13

28

34

-21

2022(nominal)2022(real,20242045(nominal)2045(real,2024

prices)prices)

RealestateEquityPensionOtherassetsLiabilities

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Growthinequityandpensionsassetsareexpectedtooutpacetheotherassets

16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

Annualaveragechange,%,2022–2045

12.9%

13.6%

10.2%

11.0%

8.6%

7.0%

45%

6.1%

5.3%

.

2.8%

RealestateEquityPensionOtherassetsLiabilities

Nominal

Real,2024prices

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Householdsinthetopcentileareexpectedtoseethelargest

increasesintheirnetwealthinabsoluteandpercentageterms

•Allhouseholdsareanticipatedtoseetheirwealthgrowovertheforecast.

•However,netwealthgrowthisforecasttobestrongerforhigh-incomehouseholds.*

•Thiswillshiftthecompositionofmillennialwealthfurthertowardsthehighestearner(thoseearningover$229,900).

Thehighestincomehouseholdsareexpectedto

accruethelargestabsolutegains…

…whichwillfurtherconcentratewealthamonghigh-

earningmillennials.

0

Changeinnetwealth2022-2025,trillions$,Millennialnetwealth

70

80

60

50

40

30

20

10

1234567891011121314151617181920

Incomecentile

NominalReal,2024prices

Source:OxfordEconomics

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

6.4%

6.7%

7.2%

7.5%

9.9%

29.5%

31.3%

32.7%

34.6%

38.2%

63.0%

62.0%

60.9%

58.1%

51.9%

Proportionoftotalnetwealth

20222030203520402045

90%-100%50%-90%0%-50%

Source:OxfordEconomics

*Annualhouseholdearningsinthe0%to50%incomebandarebetween$0and$76,500;the50%to90%incomebandisbetween$76,500and$229,900;andthe90%to100%incomebandisabove$229,900.

Appendix

Methodologicalapproach

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Weuseabottom-upapproachthatfollows8coresteps.TheUSmillennialwealthforecastcombinesincome,savings,andwealthtrendsseeninpreviousgenerationswithmacroeconomicforecastsfromOxfordEconomics’

GlobalEconomicModel

(GEM).

CalculatetheevolutionofthesavingsratefortheaverageU.S.millennialhouseholdrelativetothenationalsavingrate.

Forecasttheevolutionofhouseholdincomefortheaveragemillennialhouseholdrelativetonationalincomelevels.

Estimatetheevolutionofassetallocationformillennialhouseholds.

Forecastthevalueofmillennials’liabilitiesandconsumerdurablesrelativetothenationallevelcapturingchangesashouseholdsage.*

Forecastthenumberofmillennialhouseholds.

MapassetsandliabilitiestoGEMforecaststocapturereturnsonexistingassetstockandnationalasset/liabilitytrends.

Combinesteps1–6forabottom-upforecastoftotalassetgrowth/portfoliocompositionformillennialhouseholds.

Projecttheshareofassetsandliabilitiesbyincomegroupsacrossthemillennialcohort.

*Thesecategoriesaresplitoutbecausetheyarenotcapturedbytherelationshipbetweenthesavingsrateandincomebutarerequiredtoestimatemillennials’netwealth.

Distributionalfinancialaccounts(DFA)startingpoint

•ThedataareunderpinnedbytheSurveyofConsumerFinances(SCF),thelatestSCFisfor2022.

•IntheDFA,theFederalReserveestimatesUShouseholdwealthusingmacroeconomicstrendstocreatequarterlydatafor2023and2024.

•However,thisapproachdoesnotaccountfortheexpectedincreaseinsavingsratesformillennialsastheyage.*

•Comparedtoourapproach,thisleadstoan

underreportingofnetwealthby$1.3trillionin2024.

•Thiswillleadtoalargerunderreportingbytheendoftheforecast.

•WeusetheOxfordEconomicsforecastfor2023and2024toadjustforthisinthemillennialwealthforecast.

UsingtheDFAgrowthratespotentiallyunderreportsthenetwealthofmillennials

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

Trillions$,nominal,MillennialNetWealth

202220232024

Millennialwealth(DFA)Millennialwealth(OxfordEconomics)

Source:OxfordEconomics

*Thisapproachappliesnationaltrendsforassetsandliabilitiesacrossallagegroups.Sincemillennialsareexpectedtoincreasetheirsavingsatahigherratethanthenationalaverage,thismethodislikelytounderestimatethesavingsofmillennials.

Step1—savingsrate

•Forecastsavingsratesbyageofhouseholdhavebeencalibratedrelativetothenationalsavingsrate:

savinJdifferential=GenerationsavinJsrate−NationalsavinJrate

•Thesavingsrate*hasbeenestimatedusingcombinationofestimatedratesandtheliterature.**Themodellingassumesthat,goingforward,thesavingsratedifferentialfor

millennialsfollowsthesamepathasseeninpastgenerations.

•This,combinedwiththeGenXandMillennialgenerationalsavingsratesshownopposite,hasbeenusedtoestimatethesavingscurve.

•Thegenerationalsavingsratesarebasedon10-year

averages,andthefiguresshownatage45willfallbelowtheestimatedcurvesinceitisrisingduringthisperiod.

Thegapbetweenage-specificsavingsratesand

thenationalaverageisexpectedtopeak

around50beforedeclining

Percentagepointdifferenceinagespecificsavingsrateandnationalsavingsrate

14.2

13.2

13.9

10.8

11.3

11.5

11.8

7.1

9.4

10.8

5.2

4.9

2.5

333537394143454749515355

一Estimatedsavingrate一oBoomer-Literature

Genx-OxfordEconomicsGenx-Literature

Millenial-OxfordEconomicsSource:OxfordEconomics

16.0ppt14.0ppt12.0ppt10.0ppt8.0ppt6.0ppt4.0ppt2.0ppt0.0ppt

*Asconsumerdurablesareexcludedfromthesavingsrateintheliterature,theseareseparatelyestimated.

**TheSCFdoesnothavetheexpendituredataneededtocalculatetheaveragesavingsrateinthetraditionalmanner,soithasbeenestimatedusingtheapproachsetoutinBauluzandMeyer(2024).

Step2—householdincome

•Averageincomebyagehasbeencalculatedbasedonitsratiotothenationalaverageincome:

Incomeratio=

•Themodellingassumesthat,goingforward,theincome

ratioformillennialsfollowsthesamegrowthpathasseeninpastgenerations.However,thestartingpointisdifferent.

•TheforecastratioiscombinedwiththeGEMforecastforhouseholdincomegrowthtoestimateaverageincomesforhouseholds.

Averageincomeincreasesrelativetothenationalaverageashouseholdsage

Ratio:Generationincomeperhouseholddividedbyaverageincomeperhousehold

1.41.31.21.1

10.90.80.70.60.50.4

2528313437404346495255

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Step3—assetallocation

•Changesinportfoliostructuresovertimehavesimilartrendsacrossgenerations.

•Thesetrendsareusedtodevelopassumptionsforassetallocationofmillennialhouseholdsgoingforward.

Share

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Asmillennialsage,itisanticipatedthattheirpensionandcorporate

equiteswillaccountforalargerproportionoftheirwealth.

ofwealthheldinequity

Assets,proportionoftotalwealthbyage

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

6%

11%

29%

36%

43%

12%

12%

13%13%15%

4%11%

25%

5%11%

5%

11%

20%

18%

13%16%

20%

29%

25%

34404652

252831343740434649525558616467

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

OtherassetsRealestate

Corporateequitiesandmutualfundshares

PrivatebusinessesLiquidassets

Pensionentitlements

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Step4a—consumerdurables

•Averageconsumerdurablesbyagehasbeencalculatedasaratiotonationalaverageconsumerdurables(CD):

CDratio=

•Consumerdurablesarenotcapturedwithinthesavingsrate,andsotheyareforecastseparately.

•TheforecastratioforconsumerdurablesisbasedonthetrendsseenforBoomersandGenX.

•TheratioiscombinedwiththeGEMprojectionfor

averagehouseholdconsumerdurablestoestimatetheaveragevalueofmillennials’consumerdurableswealth.

Millennialswealthheldinconsumerdurablesisexpectedtoincrease

Ratio:Generationconsumerdurableassetsperhouseholddividedbyaverageconsumerdurableassetsperhousehold

1.41.31.21.1

10.90.80.70.60.50.4

2528313437404346495255

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Step4b—liabilities(1)

•Averageliabilitybyagehasbeencalculatedasaratiotothenationalaverageliability:

Liabilityratio=

•Thishasbeencalculatedformortgageliabilities,consumercreditliabilities,andotherliabilities.

•Foreachliability,theforecastratioiscombinedwiththeprojectionfromtheGEMtocalculatetheanticipated

changeinmillennialliabilitiesperhousehold.

•Theforecastofmillennialhouseholdsisusedtocalculatetotalvaluesforeachliabilities.

Ratio:Generationmortgageliabilityperhouseholddividedbyaveragemortgageliabilityperhousehold

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

2528313437404346495255

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Step4b—liabilities(2)

•Aratio-basedapproachisalsousedtoestimatehowaveragemillennialhouseholdliabilitiesevolverelativetotheaveragehouseholdatanationallevel.

•DifferenttrendscanbeseenbetweentheBoomersandGenX.Giventhis,wehaveassumedthepathforMillennialsmorecloselyfollowsGenX.

Ratio:Generationconsumercreditliabilityperhouseholddividedbyaverageconsumercreditliabilityperhousehold

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1

0.9

0.8

2528313437404346495255

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecastSource:OxfordEconomics

Ratio:Generationotherliabilityperhouseholddividedbyaverageotherliabilityperhousehold

1.81.61.41.2 10.80.60.40.20

2528313437404346495255

BoomerGenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics

Step5—numberofmillennialhouseholds

•Theageofahousehold,andhenceitsgenerational

classification,isdeterminedbythehousehold'srepresentativeadult,usuallythehighestearner.

•Therateofhouseholdformationbyagenerationalcohort

variessignificantlyovertime,withaveryrapidincreaseduringearlyadulthood.

•Asfeweradultsinthatagegroupmoveouttoformseparatehouseholds,thisgrowthnaturallyslows.

•Laterinlife,growthturnsnegativeasthemortalityrateincreases.

•Giventhesimilarityinthesetrendsacrossgenerations,weforecastthenumberofmillennialhouseholdsbasedonthepatternsobservedinpreviousgenerations.

•Theforecastnumberofhouseholdsiscombinedwiththe

savingsrateandincomeperhouseholdtocalculatetotalnewsavingsgeneratedbymillennialseachyear.

Thegrowthinthenumberofmillennial

householdsisanticipatedtoslowatasimilarrate

aspreviousgenerations

Annualchangeinnumberofhouseholdsbyage

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

222528313437404346495255

Boomer一GenxMillennialMillennial-forecast

Source:OxfordEconomics,DFA

Step6and7—Macroeconomicvariables

Forecastassumptions:coremacroeconomicvariables

Variable

Annualaveragechange

2022-2035

2035-2045

GDP,nominal

4.4

3.7

Consumerpriceindex

2.5

2.2

Savingratio(endperiod)

5.9%

5.6%

Householdincome

4.9

3.8

Housepriceindex

4.3

3.5

Sharepriceindex(Totalreturn)

10.3

8.6

Interestrate,10-yeargovernmentbonds(endperiod)

4.0%

4.0%

Consumerexpenditure,durables,nominal

2.4

1.7

Mortgageliabilities,household

5.6

4.3

Personalsectorretailcredit

4.4

3.8

Householdsectormiscellaneousfinancialliabilities

4.2

3.7

•TheassetsandliabilitiesheldbymillennialsaremappedtoforecastsfromtheGEM.*

•Thevariablesareusedtocapturereturnson