【摩根大通】运输与物流每周快速追踪公路检查中费率跃升、铁路并购想法、进口更新、新的空运数据

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

Transportation&Logistics

WeeklyFastTrack:RatesJumpinRoadcheck,RailM&AThoughts,ImportUpdate,NewAirfreightData

Thisweeklypublicationhighlightscurrenttransportsandlogisticstrendsacrossawiderangeoftruckload,intermodal,LTL,ocean,andairfreightmarketmetrics.Therailsectionalsoincludesareportcardthatsimplifieshowthenetworkisperformingrelativetohistoryandpeerswhilealsotrackingcarloadtrendsversusconsensusexpectations.

Keytopicsoftheweek:Nobullwhipyetforimports.WecontinuetocenterourfocusontheoverallstateofimportsandtradeflowsintotheU.S.asanabruptendofanimportpull-forwardnearlyayearinthemakingcreatedconcernsofan“importcliff”infreightvolumesthatwassuddenlyovershadowedbyde-escalatingU.S./Chinatradetensionsaweekago.Aswehavestated,webelievethefirstsignsofthefirstairpocketinTransportswillbeinlateMay/earlyJuneconsideringthereissomeinventorycushionalreadyonshoreintheU.S.,beforeanotherpull-forwardduringthe90-daypausefollowedbyamoremodestpeakseasonstartingin4Q25.Week20’sestimatedimportstotheU.S.(endingMay18)wereup+6.1%WoW,outperformingseasonalityby+980bpsand+2.8%YoY(seeFigures7and8).Thisisapositivedatapointfollowingtheprevioustwoweeksthatcombinedtounderperformseasonalityby-2,200bps.Similarly,thedataforLA/LBrecoveredinWeek20,up+24%WoW(+2900bpsvsseasonality)and+5%YoY,aftertheprevioustwoweeksfelldramatically,underperformingseasonalitybymorethan

-11,000bpscombined(seeFigures13and14).Wehaveyettoseesignsofa“bullwhip”comingwiththemoreforward-lookingdataofbookingsintotheU.S.fromSONARthatwilllandintwotothreeweeksremainingsubdued;weeklycontainerbookingsfromChinatotheU.S.areatfive-yearlowsand-27%below2023,whileweeklycontainerbookingsintotaltotheU.S.(includingfromChina)areinlinewith2023levelsmatchingfive-yearlows(seeFigures9and11).Separately,containershipswithconfirmedsailingstoLA/LBthisweekonaverageincreased+13%WoW.Wearealsopayingparticularlycloseattentiontohowtheinventorylevelsatmajorretailersarepositioningamidthetremendousamountofuncertainty.Adjustingforbothseasonalityandinflation,allthreeoftheseretailerssawtheirinventorylevelsgrowinthemostrecentquarter(TGT+4%QoQ,WMT+2%,HD+8%),whichisconsistentwithourbroaderdatahighlightingthesignificantpull-forwardoffreightaslogisticsmanagershavestockedupinadvanceoftariffs.

Speedreadofweeklytruckloadandraildatapoints

Truck:Spotratesex-fueljumped+6.1%WoWfordryvan,+6.8%forreefers,and+3.1%forflatbedasallequipmenttypesoutperformedseasonalityinaweekthatincludedthreedaysofheightenedroadsideinspectionsduringCVSA’sInternationalRoadcheck.Thisweek’sdryvansurgerepresented+445bpsofoutperformanceagainsthistoricalWeek20movesand+310bpsofoutperformancecomparedtotheaverageofthelastnineroadcheckweeks.Dryvanspotratesarenow+4%YoY,+10%vs2019levels,andhaveoutperformedseasonalityby+755bpsYTDwiththevastmajorityoftheoutperformancecomingin2Q25where

Airfreight&SurfaceTransportation/Shipping

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC

(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

GradyCarr

(1-212)622-1251

grady.carr@

BrandonWexler

(1-212)622-1956

brandon.wexler@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

Seepage62foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

2

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

rateshavebeatnormalseasonaltrendsby+660bps.Thetemporarysidelinedcapacityalsohelpedliftrejectionrateswithdryvantenderrejectionsup+100bpsWoWandreeferrejectionsup+240bps.DryvanfreightvolumetenderedwasflatWoWwhilethedryvanload-to-truckratiowasup+57%withthecompositionsurprisinglymoreofafunctionofloadspostsrising(+45%WoW)thantruckpostsdeclining(-8%WoW).Theweeklycountofnetchangesofmotorcarrierauthorizationsflippednegativeto-60netrevocationslastweekfollowing11consecutiveweekswithnetadditions.The2025YTDaverageisnow-38netrevocationsperweekcomparedtothe2024averageof-246weeklynetrevocations.ThisweekwehostedatruckloadmarketupdatewithACTResearch,aconversationweviewedasincrementallynegativegiventheACTteamexpectstariffswill“crush”freightdemand,whichhassubsequentlyledtotheirflatoutlookfordryvanspotratesin2026.

Figure1:J.P.MorganTruckloadOperatingDashboard

SpotRatesexFuelUpcomingCompsRateMomentumSpotvsContractRateperMile

WoW∆Seasonality∆9yearavg.

4WMA(YoY)

3MMA(YoY)

CurrentSpreadvs.Average%YoY

DryVan6.1%445bps-1.0%

Reefers6.8%522bps-1.0%

Flatbed3.1%193bps1.1%

TenderRejection

DryVan3.3%uuu--Reefers1.3%

Flatbed7.0%

3.1%

1.4%

5.8%

DryVan

-$0.42

-57.2%

8.7%

Reefers

-$0.46

-301.4%

6.1%

Flatbed

-$0.43

-55.1%

23.2%

FreightVolumeTendered

LoadtoTruckRatios

WoW∆Seasonality∆5yearavg.

WoW∆Seasonality∆5yearavg.

WoW∆Seasonality∆8yearavg.

TruckloadMarket96bps13bps-202bps

TruckloadMarket0.4%-181bps-10.7%

DryVan57.0%3,882bps77.0%

DryVan98bps58bps-194bps

DryVan-0.2%-141bps-11.8%

Reefers61.6%3,187bps96.0%

Reefers240bps248bps-178bps

Reefers-1.0%-200bps-12.9%

Flatbed36.4%2,763bps-6.1%

Source:J.P.Morganestimates,DAT,SONAR,BloombergFinanceL.P.Note:spotvs.contractspreadlastreportedforApril2025

Rail:ArecentarticlefromTcitingUnionPacific’sCEOJimVenathatatranscontinentalmergerwouldbegoodforshippersandrailroadsbutwouldbecomplicatedontheregulatoryfronthasbroughtrailM&Adiscussionsbacktotheforefrontofsome,butnotall,ofourdiscussionsonrailroads.Railmanagementteamswereaskedaboutthispossibilityduringtherecentconferencecircuit,andwefoundthecommentsbyCPKC’sKeithCreeltobethemostinterestinggivenheistheonlyCEOtohavegonethroughamerger,andhebelievestheSurfaceTransportationBoard’s2001rulescreateaninsurmountablebarrierforatranscontinentalmerger.Wespenttheweekcollectingopinionsfromanumberoflawyers,eachwithdecadesofexperienceintherailindustry,andtheywereallgenerallyskepticalthatsuchamergerwouldtrulybe“endtoend.”Shipperswouldloseaccesstosomeoptions,andextendingbottleneckswouldbeanticompetitiveandrequireanoffset,similartotheCN-KCSproposal.Inaddition,theenvironmentalimpactstudiesofanymergercanbeespeciallyonerousandtimeconsuming,andthisprocessisnotrequiredthroughpartnershipsorjointventures,whichmanyintherailindustrybelievecanoffersimilarbenefitstoamergerwithfewerrisks.Lastly,thereweresplitopinionsonwhetherornottheTrumpadministrationispro-mergerandanti-regulationwhenarecentExecutiveOrder(#14139,signedonApril9,2025)seekstorollbackregulationsthatlimitcompetition.The2001mergerrulescouldbechanged,butthatwouldrequireaformalrulemakingandcommentperiod,whichwouldlikelytakeoverayearandcouldendupchallengedincourt.

*NOTE-STBdataisdelayedasofweek19,endedMay14

3

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Figure2:J.P.MorganRailroadReportCard

Source:STB,AAR,companyreports

Note:Totalscoresshownhereareasumofthegradesofthreeoperatingmetricsforeachrail:systemdwell,trainspeedandcarsonline.Foreachofthethreecategories,thescoreisbasedonthequintileitfitsintobasedonthehistoricaldataforthatweek.Asanexample,forsystemdwellwegive2pointsiftheweek’sdwellisinthebottom20%ofhistoricaldataforthisweekforthisrailroad,1pointifinthenextlowest20%,andthensoon.Thesumisthenbetween-6(worstpossiblescore)and6(bestpossiblescore)wherewethenclassifytheoverallstatusasPoor,Fair,Average,Good,orExcellent.

Airfreight:WeareaddingairfreightratesfromTACinordertomorecloselymonitorkeyfreightlanesfollowingtheremovalofthedeminimisexemptionaswellastheimpositionoftariffsonChina,whichisthelargestandmostprofitableexportmarketforUPS,FedEx,andglobalfreightforwarderssuchasExpeditorsandC.H.Robinson.TACprovidesweeklygeneralcargoprices,expressedinlocalcurrencyperKg,reflectingtheprevioussevendaysofrealizedpricingbasedonacombinationofspotandcontractdatafromglobalairforwardersthatistakendirectlyfromtheirmasterairwaybillsvalidatedagainstairlinedata.TheendresultofthisexerciseisanewheatmapthatisbasedonYoYchangeinmonthlyaverageofweeklypricesoverthelasttwoyearsfor37lanestransportinggoodsaroundtheworld(Figure172).Wealsoaddedgraphstobetterillustrateweeklyandseasonaltrendsacrossofsixkeylanes(Figure173-178)andprovideasnapshotoftheWoWchangesfor10majorairfreightlanesinFigure3.TheChina-U.S.lanedeclined-6%WoWthisweekafterincreasing+5%WoWlastweek,ultimatelytrailingseasonalityinWeek20by-364bps,whichbringsthecumulativeseasonalperformanceto-4,700bpsYTD.Thefiveothermajorlanes,includingChinatoEUR,EURtoChina,U.S.toChina,EURtoU.S.,andU.S.toEUR,allshowedweaknessaswell,withU.S.-Chinaperformingtheworstat-8%and-915bpsbelowseasonality,whileChina-EURwasthebest,holdingflatWoWandbeatingseasonalityby+197bps.AllsixlanesareunderperformingseasonalityonacumulativebasisYTDasweaknessintheairfreightmarketisbroad-based.

Figure3:HeatmapshowingWoWchangeinweeklypricesfor10majorairfreightlanes

WoWchange(%)

2025

Wk1

2025

Wk2

2025

Wk3

2025

Wk4

2025

Wk5

2025

Wk6

2025

Wk7

2025

Wk8

2025

Wk9

2025

Wk10

2025

Wk11

2025

Wk12

2025

Wk13

2025

Wk14

2025

Wk15

2025

Wk16

2025

Wk17

2025

Wk18

2025

Wk19

2025

Wk20

ChinatoEurope

-10%

-1%

-10%

6%

-2%

3%

1%

-6%

0%

-1%

5%

2%

1%

2%

-1%

-3%

-2%

0%

-1%

0%

EuropetoChina

-3%

8%

-10%

-12%

9%

-1%

13%

3%

-5%

-3%

3%

-5%

-4%

-7%

2%

2%

1%

-4%

-2%

-2%

ChinatoUnitedStates

-8%

-10%

-12%

4%

1%

-2%

0%

-5%

-3%

4%

4%

6%

2%

-2%

2%

-2%

-1%

-6%

5%

-6%

UnitedStatestoChina

0%

-5%

9%

-13%

-8%

20%

-3%

-3%

-8%

3%

-10%

-3%

-5%

11%

42%

2%

-31%

4%

4%

-8%

EuropetoUnitedStates

3%

-12%

4%

-6%

11%

-15%

5%

3%

-7%

-3%

5%

-5%

2%

-12%

4%

10%

-8%

-10%

-2%

-3%

UnitedStatestoEurope

0%

-2%

3%

-2%

-4%

5%

1%

-6%

-3%

7%

-2%

4%

-11%

9%

-1%

-8%

10%

-7%

9%

-6%

VietnamtoUnitedStates

-9%

5%

-9%

-1%

-6%

-11%

4%

-6%

-2%

1%

1%

17%

17%

-8%

-1%

-1%

-8%

0%

-11%

23%

ShanghaitoLosAngeles

-11%

-12%

-6%

6%

4%

-18%

10%

3%

-7%

2%

3%

4%

1%

4%

6%

1%

-9%

-5%

5%

-16%

VietnamtoEurope

4%

-10%

-2%

-11%

0%

-2%

3%

5%

-8%

2%

-5%

-8%

24%

1%

-3%

-1%

-5%

-5%

9%

-9%

ShanghaitoAmsterdam

0%

-7%

0%

-1%

1%

-2%

18%

-14%

2%

-3%

3%

7%

2%

6%

-6%

2%

-4%

0%

-2%

13%

Source:TAC,J.P.Morganestimates.,Note:Datainlocalcurrency.

4

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

RecentJPMresearchandrelevantthematicwork(fulllisthere:

ThematicandIn-

DepthResearch

)

•Schneider:HighlightsfromMeetingswithManagementinGreenBay-May21,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:RidingtheRails:AprilIntermodalMarketUpdate-May20,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:HighlightsfromExpertCallwithACTResearchontheTruckloadMarket-May20,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:QuestionBookfortheSummerConferenceSeason-May20,2025

•FedExCorporation:InitialThoughtsonFedExFreightCEOAnnouncement-May20,2025

•NorthAmericanRailroads:AprilLaborProductivityUpdate:CSXReachesAgreementwithBLET,BringingBackCPKCHeadcountData-May19,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:1Q25Review:FAQsandTopPicks:SupplyChains&BullwhipsKeepFreightExciting–May16,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:HighlightsfromExpertCallwithDATFreight&AnalyticsontheTruckloadMarket-May13,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:LMIAprilUpdate:InventoryPull-ForwardFilledUpWarehousestoRideOutUncertainty,PortofLAUpdate–May06,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:HighlightsfromExpertCallonTariffImplicationsonTransportswithProfessorJasonMiller-Apr17,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:Less-Than-Truckload:Thoughts&FAQsontheLaunchofAmazonFreightLTL,UPSLookingtoExpandGFP-Apr15,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:TakeawaysfromTPM25ConferenceonTranspacificGlobalContainerShipping-Mar07,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:HighlightsfromExpertCallDiggingDeeperintoLTLandAmazonwithDerekLossing–Feb25,2025

•Transportation&Logistics:2025Outlook:BeenDownSoLong,It’sBeginningtoLookLikeUp–Dec19,2024

5

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

TableOfContents

Import&CongestionMonitor

6

TransportationandLogisticsCompSheets

11

NorthAmericaClassIRailOperatingOverview

13

NorthAmericaClassIOriginatedCarloads

13

RailVolumeTrackeronQuarterly/YearlyBasisvsExpectations

14

WeeklyChicagoFreightFlowMonitor

15

CanadianNational

16

CanadianPacificKansasCity

20

CSX

24

NorfolkSouthern

28

UnionPacific

32

BNSF

36

HeadtoHead:BNSFandUNP

39

HeadtoHead:CSXandNSC

40

TruckloadDashboard

41

IntermodalDashboard

47

LessThanTruckloadDashboard

51

OceanDashboard

55

AirfreightDashboard

58

ThematicandIn-DepthResearch

60

6

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Import&CongestionMonitor

Figure4:ContainershipsonthewaytoLA&LBdippedto48.3perdayoverthelast14daysvs54.8perdayinApril

ContainershipsonwaytoPortofLA&LBinfuture

70

60

50

40

30

20

Nov-22Mar-23Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24Jul-24Nov-24Mar-25

Source:MarineExchangeofCalifornia

Figure5:U.S.containerizedimportsinAprilfellbetween2021and2022

mmTEUs

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.5

JanuaryMarchMayJulySeptemberNovember

20192020---2021---2022202320242025

Source:Descartes

7

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Figure6:WeeklyU.S.ContainerizedImports

TEUs

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

147101316192225283134374043464952

7YearsRange—·202220232024---2025

Source:Descartes.DatathroughWeek20endingMay18

Figure7:WeeklyU.S.ContainerizedImportsVersusSeasonality

bps

2,250

1,500

750

0

(750)

(1,500)

(2,250)

(3,000)

147101316192225283134374043464952YTDCumulativeSeasonalityWoWvsSeasonality

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020).DatathroughWeek20endingMay18

Figure8:WeeklyContainerBookings:ChinatoU.S.

Index7dma

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

14710131619222528313437404346495220212022202320242025

Source:SONAR.DatathroughMay22

Note:RepresentsTEUsbookedwithoceanlinersreferencedtoanindexofallgloballane

combinations.Dailyvolumerecordedbasedonestimateddateofdepartureofeachbookingasconfirmedbytheoceancarrier

Figure9:ChinatoU.S.WeeklyContainerBookingsVersusSeasonality

bps

3,000

1,000

(1,000)

(3,000)

(5,000)

(7,000)

147101316192225283134374043464952YTDCumulativeSeasonalityWoWvsSeasonality

Source:SONAR.Seasonalitybasedon5yearsofdata(2019-2024,ex-2020).DatathroughWeek20endingMay18

Figure10:WeeklyContainerBookings:AllCountriestoU.S.

Index7dma

2,600

2,200

1,800

1,400

1,000

147101316192225283134374043464952

2021—-2022202320242025

Source:SONAR.DatathroughMay22

Note:RepresentsTEUsbookedwithoceanlinersreferencedtoanindexofallgloballane

combinations.Dailyvolumerecordedbasedonestimateddateofdepartureofeachbookingasconfirmedbytheoceancarrier

Figure11:AllCountriestoU.S.WeeklyContainerBookingsVersusSeasonality

bps

2,500

1,500

500

(500)

(1,500)

(2,500)

147101316192225283134374043464952

mmYTDCumulativeSeasonality——WoWvsSeasonality

Source:SONAR.Seasonalitybasedon5yearsofdata(2019-2024,ex-2020).DatathroughWeek20endingMay18

8

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Figure12:WeeklyImportsatPortofLA&LB

TEUs

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

147101316192225283134374043464952

7YearsRange—·2022--20232024---2025

Source:WabtecPortOptimizer.Seasonalitybasedon7yearsofdata(2017-2024,ex-2020)

Note:CurrentdatathroughWeek20endingMay16followedby3weeksofforecasts

Figure14:PortofL.A.EstimatedWeeklyImportsAreVolatile

LastTEUYoYestimatelessoriginalTEUYoYestimate

Source:WabtecPortOptimizer.

Note:Estimatesmeasuredoverfourweekperiod.Weeks1-9hereareWeek452024thoughWeek12025,10-14isWeek15-192025

Figure16:Toys/gamesimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

160,000

120,000

80,000

40,000

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··20242025

Source:Descartes

Figure13:WeeklyImportsPortofLA&LBvsSeasonality

bps

4,000

2,000

0

(2,000)

(4,000)

(6,000)

147101316192225283134374043464952

mmYTDCumulativeSeasonality——WoWvsSeasonality

Source:WabtecPortOptimizer.Seasonalitybasedon7yearsofdata(2017-2024,ex-2020)

Note:CurrentdatathroughWeek20endingMay16followedby3weeksofforecasts

Figure15:WestCoastlost~520bpsofsharein3months

%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

Jan-13Jan-15Jan-17Jan-19Jan-21Jan-23Jan-25

WestEast+Gulf

Source:Descartes.DatathroughWeek19endingMay11

Figure17:Toys/gamesimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

3,000bps

2,000bps

1,000bps

0bps

(1,000bps)

(2,000bps)

Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

∆vsSeasonalityCumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

9

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Figure18:TextilesimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··2024——2025

Source:Descartes

Figure20:ElectricmachineryimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

220,000

180,000

140,000

100,000

60,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··20242025

Source:Descartes

Figure22:FurnitureimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

460,000

360,000

260,000

160,000

60,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··20242025

Source:Descartes

Figure19:TextilesimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

900bps

(100bps)

(1,100bps)

(2,100bps)

Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

∆vsSeasonalityCumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

Figure21:ElectricmachineryimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

1,000bps

0bps

(1,000bps)

(2,000bps)

Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

∆vsSeasonalityCumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

Figure23:FurnitureimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

1,500bps

500bps

(500bps)

(1,500bps)

Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

∆vsSeasonalityCumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

10

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

Figure24:PlasticsimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··2024——2025

Source:Descartes

Figure26:BasemetalsimportsfromChinatoU.S.

TEUs

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

11yrrange2021---2022--2023-··2024——2025

Source:Descartes

Figure28:TotalcontainersatLAareelevated...

Containers

Source:WabtecPortOptimizer

Figure25:PlasticsimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

1,500bps

500bps

(500bps)

(1,500bps)

Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

∆vsSeasonalityCumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

Figure27:BasemetalsimportsfromChinatoU.S.versusseasonality

bps

2,000bps

1,000bps

0bps

(1,000bps)

(2,000bps)

(3,000bps)

Jul-24Sep-24

∆vsSeasonality

Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25

Cumulative∆vsSeasonality(sinceJuly'24)

Source:Descartes.Seasonalitybasedon11yearsofdata(2013-2024,ex-2020)

Figure29:…butraildwelltimesarewelloffrecentpeak

%

Source:WabtecPortOptimizer

11

BrianP.Ossenbeck,CFAAC(1-212)622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@

NorthAmericaEquityResearch

23May2025

J.PMorgan

TransportationandLogisticsCompSheets

Figure30:J.P.Morgancoveragecompsheet

JPMMktCapPriceDec'25Implied

∆

ConsensusP/EConsensusEPSYearJPMEPSEV/EBITDANetDebt

Company

TickerRating(Bn)5/22TargetReturnYTD

QTD

2425E26E2425E26EPEG2425E26E2425E26EtoEBITDA

Parcels

FedEx

FDX

OW

$52.4

$218.81

$280.00

28.0%

(21.8%)

(10.2%)

12.3x

12.1x

10.9x

$17.77

$18.14

$20.07

-0.5x

$17.82

$18.25

$21.11

6.3x

6.5x

6.0x

3.4x

UPS

UPS

N

$82.1

$96.97

$110.00

13.4%

(20.7%)

(10.4%)

13.0x

13.8x

12.2x

$7.47

$7.04

$7.94

-0.1x

$7.58

$7.05

$7.85

8.2x

8.4x

7.8x

1.6x

Railroads

CanadianNationalRailway

CNRCN

OW

$92.5

$147.25

$162.00

10.0%

1.5%

5.1%

20.4x

18.9x

17.0x

$7.21

$7.79

$8.65

2.2x

$7.26

$7.90

$8.55

13.6x

12.9x

12.1x

2.5x

CanadianPacificRailway

CPCN

OW

$103.7

$111.43

$128.00

14.9%

7.3%

10.3%

26.5x

23.5x

20.5x

$4.21

$4.74

$5.45

0.5x

$4.19

$4.85

$5.70

17.2x

15.8x

14.4x

3.0x

CSXCorp

CSX

OW

$57.6

$30.64

$31.00

1.2%

(4.7%)

4.1%

16.8x

18.5x

15.9x

$1.83

$1.65

$1.93

-0.7x

$1.82

$1.60

$1.90

10.6x

11.6x

10.8x

2.8x

NorfolkSouthernCorp

NSC

OW

$54.0

$239.64

$272.00

13.5%

3.3%

1.8%

20.4x

19.0x

16.8x

$11.76

$12.63

$14.22

-1.2x

$11.76

$12.79

$14.29

12.9x

12.1x

11.4x

2.5x

UnionPacificCorp

UNP

N

$133.2

$222.87

$241.00

8.1%

(1.7%)

(5.7%)

20.3x

20.2x

17.5x

$10.96

$11.06

$12.75

-3.0x

$10.93

$11.55

$12.70

13.6x

13.2x

12.5x

2.7x

TruckloadCarriers&Brokers

C.H.RobinsonWorldwide

CHRW

OW

$11.5

$96.52

$118.00

22.3%

(6.0%)

(5.7%)

22.0x

20.4x

17.8x

$4.39

$4.72

$5.42

-0.2x

$4.38

$4.90

$5.60

15.0x

14.5x

12.9x

1.7x

RXO

RXO

UW

$2.5

$15.25

$15.00

(1.6%)

(36.0%)

(20.2%)

127.1x

94.1x

34.3x

$0.12

$0.16

$0.44

-0.1x

$0.14

$0.14

$0.50

23.9x

18.7x

12.4x

23.1x

HeartlandExpress

HTLD

UW

$0.7

$8.81

$9.00

2.2%

(21.4%)

(4.5%)

-23.1x

-31.4x

31.4x

-$0.38

-$0.28

$0.28

-0.1x

-$0.41

-$0.33

$0.40

5.3x

5.5x

3.2x

1.2x

Knight-Swift

KNX

N

$7.0

$43.49

$46.00

5.8%

(17.7%)

0.0%

40.9x

29.1x

17.5x

$1.06

$1.49

$2.49

-0.1x

$1.08

$1.50

$2.40

8.9x

7.8x

6.4x

2.1x

SchneiderNational

SNDR

N

$4.1

$23.53

$24