2025年变革假日购物季的五大AI趋势研究报告（英文版）-Adobe

Top5AITrendsTransforming

HolidayShopping

Today'sspeakers

LindsayMorris

PrincipalContentStrategistAdobe

LoniStark

VicePresidentof

StrategyandProductAdobe

VivekPandya

Director,

AdobeDigitalInsights

Adobe

MartaFrattini

GlobalDirectorof

IndustryStrategy,RetailAdobe

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©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

Agenda

2025USholidayshoppingforecast

Top5AItrendstransformingholidayshopping

2026andbeyond:AINewYear'sresolutions

Q&Aandresources

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

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2025USholidayshoppingforecast

VivekPandya

Director,AdobeDigitalInsightsAdobe

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Methodology

Onlyindustryreportthatmeasuresdirectconsumertransactions

Over1trillionvisitstoUSretailwebsites

100millionproductSKUs,across18productcategories

AdobeAnalyticsistheleadingdatainsightstoolforretailers

85ofthetop100*USinternet

retailersuseAdobeExperience

Cloudtopowertheirdigitalbusiness

OnlyAdobecanaccessahighvolumeofconsumertransactions

Dataisaggregatedandanonymizedtoprovideinsights

Complementarysurveybasedonresponsesfrom5,000U.S.consumers,fieldedbetweenSeptember9thandSeptember16th,2025

Disclaimer:TheinformationandanalysisinthisreleasehavebeenpreparedbyAdobeInc.forinformationalpurposesonlyandmaycontainstatementsaboutfutureeventsthatcoulddifferfromactualresults.AdobeInc.doesnotwarrantthatthematerialcontainedhereinisaccurateorfreeoferrorsandhasnoresponsibilitytoupdateorreviseinformationpresentedherein.AdobeInc.shallnotbeliableforany

relianceupontheinformationprovidedherein.

*PertheDigitalCommerce360Top500Report(2021)

HolidaySeasonForecast2025

AdobeDigitalInsights;2019–2025

Spend($B)

.YoyGrowth(%)Forecast

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

6

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

2025Holidayseasononlinespendingtocross$250billion

Spend($)

YoYGrowth(%)

211.7

13.0%

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Forecast$253.4B

241.1222.1

204.5188.2

142.5

32.2%

8.6%8.6%

4.9%5.3%

3.5%

2019202020212022202320242025

BlackFridaygainsshareofCyberWeekgrowth

CyberWeekForecast

AdobeDigitalInsights;2025

Spend($B)

$14.2B

YoYGrowth(%)

Spend($B)

YoyGrowth(%)

$14

$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0

$11.7B

$6.4B

8.3%

6.3%

4.9%

WedThanksgivingBlackFridaySatSunCyberMondayTue

7

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Mobile-firstholidayclosesoutfirstmobile-firstyear

MobileRevenueShareForecast

AdobeDigitalInsights;2021–2025

ActualForecast

Confidential.8

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.Adobe

Variedgrowthexpectedfrommajorcategories

OnlineSpendForecastbyCategory

$57.5B&4%YoY

Electronics

Apparel

$8.2B&5.1%YoY

$8.4B&9.1%YoY$8.8B&7.3%YoY

$47.6B&4.4%YoY

Furniture&Home

Grocery

Goods

$31.1B&6.5%YoY$23.5B&9.2%YoY

Reserved.AdobeConfidential.9

©2025Adobe.AllRights

Pricesensitivityeases,promotionsstillfuelgrowth

OnlinePriceSensitivityIndex(IndexedtoJan2024)AdobeDigitalInsights;2024–2025

10%

IndexedPriceSensitivity

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25

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Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.10

Buynow,paylater!Momentumbuildsaheadofholidays

BNPLHolidaySeasonForecast

AdobeDigitalInsights;2025

Spend

YoYGrowth

$25

$20

Forecast

$20.2B

YoYGrowth(%)

$18.2B

Spend($B)

$16.6B

$14.5B

$15

11%

14%

13.3%

$10

9.6%

$5

$0

2022202320242025Forecast

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Last-minuteholidaygiftsdrivecurbsidepickup

BOPISOrderShareDuringtheHolidaySeason--2023

AdobeDigitalInsights;2023–20252024

——2025Forecast

OrderShare

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GenerativeAItrafficsurgesasassistantsreshapeshopping

ReportedAIPurchaseSatisfaction

AdobeConsumerSurvey;Aug2025

GrowthinAI-DrivenVisitShare(Retail)AdobeDigitalInsights;August2024–August2025

95%

ReportedpurchaseSatisfaction

SatisfiedNotSatisfied

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AItraffic:Desktopleads,mobilerising

MonthlyAIMobileVisitShare

AdobeDigitalInsights;January2025–Present

MobileVisitShare

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AIconversionsurpassestraditionalconversion

IndexedConversionRate

MonthlyAIvsNon-AIConversionRate(Retail)AdobeDigitalInsights;July2024–September2025

ReferralType

——AIConversionRate

——Non-AIConversionRate

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AIvisitsareworthasmuchasnon-AIvisits

MonthlyAIvsNon-AIRevenuePerVisitPercentDifference(Retail)AdobeDigitalInsights;August2024–September2025

RPVPercentDifference

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.16

1.2

Affiliates/PartnersPaidSearch

NaturalSearch

SocialNetworks

1.4

IndexedTotalRevenueSharebyMarketingChannel

AdobeDigitalInsights;January2024–July2025

1

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24sep-24NOV-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25

0.8

Marketingchannelsforecast

IndexedRevenueShare

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Conversionrate:Socialnetworksvs.socialmediaaffiliates

ConversionRatebyMarketingChannel

AdobeDigitalInsights;AdobeDigital;January–July2025

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

SocialMediaAffiliatesSocialNetworks

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Reddit:IndexedRevenue&VisitShare

AdobeDigitalInsights;January2024–July2025

Redditisthefastest-growingsocialreferralplatform

IndexedRevenue&VisitShare

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

RedditRevenueShareRedditVisitShare

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25

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SocialMedia:IndexedVisitShare

AdobeDigitalInsights;January2024–July2025

InstagramextendsleadoverTikTok

4

3.5

Indexed&VisitShare

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25

FacebookInstagramPinterest Reddit

TikTok

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Top5AItrendstransformingholidayshopping

VivekPandya

Director,

AdobeDigitalInsights

Adobe

LoniStark

VicePresidentof

StrategyandProductAdobe

MartaFrattini

GlobalDirectorof

IndustryStrategy,RetailAdobe

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#1

AIistransformingproductandbranddiscovery

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ProductdiscoverywithgenerativeAItools

72%Research

47%Getproductrecommendations 43%Finddeals

35%Ideateforgifts

33%Generateshoppinglists

Source:AdobeDigitalInsightsConsumerSurvey

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Nowcompaniescanoptimizeacrosstwopillars

GenerativeEngineOptimization(GEO)

Optimizebrandcontenttobediscovered,summarized,andrecommendedby

generativeAIsystems.

Optimized

ShoppingExperience

Tailorwebsiteexperiencesto

promoteexploration,discoveryandconversion.

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AsteepriseinsearchesusingAIplatforms

PercentGrowth

GrowthinAI-DrivenVisitShare(Retail)AdobeDigitalInsights;August2024–August2025

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GEO:OptimizingforAI-poweredsearch

SEO

GEO(AI-poweredsearch)

PrimaryGoal

Achievehighrankingonsearchengineresultspages(SERPS).

Berecognizedasanauthoritative,trustedsourceforAI-drivenagents.

Methodology

Keywordoptimization,backlinks,metadata,earnedandownedcontent.

Structured,contexed-richcontent;citedbyreputablesources.

DiscoverProcess

Indexedandrankedbyalgorithmsbasedonrelevance.

SynthesizedandcuratedbyAIagentsbasedonmultipledatasources.

Transparency

Relativelyopen,rankingfactorsoftenpublishedorinferred.

Opaque;agentlogicisproprietaryandevolving

withemergingtacticsaroundAI-specificmetadata.

KeySuccessFactor

Volumeandqualityofcontenttiedtokeywords.

Reputation,authority,andclarityacrosstrustedsources.

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OptimizingforAIsystems:Brandcitationandcomprehension

Near-term

See

Audithowassistantsdescribeyoutoday.Benchmarktoimprovebrandvisibility,sentimentandreferralsovertime.

toStructure

Makecontentmachine-readable(facts,schema,feeds).

Signal

Strengthenauthorityacrosstrustedthird-partysites.

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OptimizingforAIsystems:Long-termstrategy

Longgame

“Wikipedia”yourbrand,soAI

systemscanread,reason,

andrecommendit.

AIagentshaveexpanded

youraudience.

Re-imagineyour

contentstrategyandoperationstobedualoptimizedforpeopleandmachines.

#2

AIistransformingtheshopping

experience

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DesigningforAIhandoff:

Turningconversationsintoconversions

MakeeveryAI

referralmeasurable:

Trackwhichassistant,query,oranswerdrovethevisit.Thenadaptcontentstrategyandproduction.

Keepmomentum

withspeed:

IfanAIsendsa

ready-to-buyvisitortoaslowpage,intentdies.

Eachextrasecondof

Guidetheirnextdecision:

Designforthesecondclick.

UseclearCTAs,

comparisonblocks,and

“Whattodonext”prompts.

CTAsabovethefoldget

Conversationlandingzones:

CraftAIhandoffpagesthatpickupwherethe conversationleftoff.

ContinuousA/Btesting

drives~10–30%annual

conversiongains

loadtimecutsconversions

by4.4%;40%ofusers

abandonafter3seconds

304%moreclicks;clear

actionphrasingcanlift

conversions111%+

Visitorsform

impressionsofwebsitesinabout0.05second

AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report;

AIandDigitalTrends-Retail2025;Deloitte

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Shoppingbecomesmorepersonal:

Owntheexperienceacrossmobile+conversational

ReportedAIPurchaseSatisfaction

AdobeConsumerSurvey;Aug2025

95%

Reportedpurchasesatisfaction

圜Satisfied.NotSatisfied

72%usedAIforonlineshoppingsaidtheyarelesslikelytoreturnitems

AImobilevisitsharehas

consistentlyrisenthroughouttheyear,increasing44%sincethestartof2025.

Mobileshareisexpectedto

continueitsgrowththroughouttherestoftheyear,reaching

approximately30%duringtheholidayseason.

AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report;AIandDigitalTrends-Retail2025;Deloitte

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FromLLMstobrandgoverneddelightfulconversationalexperiences

ForBrands

UnifiedConversationalExperience

Consistentengagementacrosseverydigitalproperty.

IntegratedKnowledgeSources

ConnectAEM,web,andproductdataforaccuracy.

BrandExpression&Governance

Controltone,design,andcompliance.

PerformanceAnalytics

Measureengagement,conversion,andfeedback.

ForConsumers

ConversationalGuidance

Natural,human-likedialoguethatunderstandsintent.

PersonalizedDiscovery

Dynamicrecommendationsasneedsevolve.

Visual&TrustedResponses

Brand-approvedvisualsandcitations.

DecisionSupport

Compareoptionsandexplorerelatedcontent.

ContinuousEngagement

Next-stepprompts,transitions,andfeedbackloops.

#3

AIistransformingthecustomer

journey

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Next-generationCXdemandsreal-timecapabilities,omnichannelconsistency,andseamlesspersonalization

6

averagenumberofmeaningful

interactionsacrosschannelsbeforeapurchase

Upto40%

ofconsumerperceptionofbrand’svaluestemfromfactorsotherthanprice

AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report;AIandDigitalTrends-Retail2025;Deloitte

70%

ofshoppersprefertobuyfrom

brandsthatrespondinreal-timetotheirbehaviorsandanticipateneeds

68%

ofretailerssayAIishelpingthemdetectshiftingintentfasterduringkeyshoppingmoments

Orchestratingcustomerexperiencesduringtheholidays

Measureandlearninmomentsthatmatter

withAI-poweredanalyticstooptimizeinpeakdays

Balanceexisting,newandinfrequentshoppers

withself-optimizingjourneysandexperiences

Detectintentandpersonalizetotheunknowninrealtime

ascustomersshopforselfandothers

AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report;AIandDigitalTrends-Retail2025;Deloitte

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#4

AIis

supercharging

creative

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Fireflycreativitydatamethodology

AIisgivingusawholenewinsight

intoconsumers:notjustwhatthey

wanttoknoworwanttobuy,but

whattheywanttocreate.

AdobeDigitalInsightsanalyzed

millionsofFireflypromptsto

revealemergingcreativitytrends

—offeringanunprecedentedlook

intocreativeintentatscale.

Itisawindowintothecreative

mindthatcanreveallocal,

global,demographicandother

trendsthatwejustcouldn’t

seebefore.

AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report;

AIandDigitalTrends-Retail2025;Deloitte

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+50%

RelativeHolidayPromptFrequency

Jan-Oct24AvgNov24

Dec24

ShoppingPhoneTVToys

38

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Shoppingcapturesimaginationsthroughtheholidayseason

+28%

+34%

+21%

+9%

+11%

+8%

39

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

Threeholidaysdominatecreativitytowardtheendoftheyear

2024HolidayPromptFrequency

——Halloween2024

Thanksgiving2024——Christmas2024

40

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Eachholidayhasitsowndistinctcolorpalette

ColorPalettebyHoliday

Halloween

Thanksgiving

Christmas

Hannukah

Kwanza

Diwali

MostPopularDishesinThanksgivingPrompts

Pie

Potatoes

Mashed

Apples CornStuffingWine

CranberryVegetables Apple GravyBerries

Cheese

Beer

Baked

41

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

Thanksgivingdinnerincreativity:mashed>baked,wine>beer

TheriseofLabubu

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

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GenerativeAIistransformingcontenteconomics

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

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AdobeStateofCustomerExperienceinanAIDrivenWorld–2025Report

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

GenerativeAI

dramatically

accelerateson-brandcontentcreationandperformance,with

increasedefficiency

VerificationandQA

on-brandgenerative

AIandstreamlined

workflowsand

approvalsarekey

isarisingchallenge:

KINESSOhelpedAmazonFreshcutproductiontimeusingAdobeFirefly

©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

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©2025Adobe.AllRightsReserved.AdobeConfidential.

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TrainedAdobeFirefly

CustomModelsto

produceon-brandvisualsthatplugseamlesslyintocampaigns,cutting

productiontimeby93%andenablingcampaignlocalizationatscale

#5

AIadoptionis

accelerating,andmovingfrombackofficetocustomerfacing

©2025Adobe.AllRig