2026年中国经济展望：挑战超乎表面所见（英文版）-Morgan Stanley

EconomicResearch

November2025

China2026economicoutlook:Morechallengingthanmeetstheeye

TingtingGeAC

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228000143

tingting.ge@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

JiayiLi

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228005229

jiayi.c.li@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

TongfangYuan

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch

+85228000085

tongfang.yuan@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

Globalmacrobackdrop

ChinaGDPdeviationfromtrend

Globaloutlookscenarios

UShyperscalercapex

USaveragetariffrate

Globalmacrobackdrop

Growthforecastrevisions

RealGDPrelativetopre-pandemictrendpath

DMpolicyratechange

Inflationforecastrevisions

Twokeyfactorsaffectingthe2026Chineseeconomy

US-Chinatradetensions

lTarifftensions2.0underTrump2.0:Higher,broader,moredisruptive

lPunitivetariffratesandtit-for-tatretaliationfromChina

lAre-escalationofUS-Chinatensions,tariffsremainthekeyuncertainty

lUS-Chinafifth-roundtradetalkinMalaysia,followedbyaPresidentialsummitatAPEC

Policyshiftsand15thFYP

lPolicyshiftsinceSeptember2024:Athree-arrowapproach

lPolicyswingbetweencyclicalandstructuralrebalancing,whichisdata-dependent

lTimeinconsistencyineconomictransformation

lBoostingdomesticdemand/consumption/serviceconsumption

lHigh-endmanufacturingandtechself-sufficiencytopthe15thFYPtasks

lUnifiednationalmarketandanti-involution

Tarifftensions2.0

Tarifftensions2.0underTrump2.0arethebiggestexternalriskforChinain2025

JPMbaselineassumption(Nov-2024):UStariffsonChinaupfrom20%to60%;tariffincreaseonChina’stransshipments(Vietnam,Malaysia);nouniversaltariffincrease.Thiswasanon-consensuscautiousview.

Thetariffhikecameinhigherandbroaderthanourassumption.Lackoftransparencyintariffobjectives:Fentanyl,bordercontrol;rebalancing;reshoring;revenue,etc.

TariffpeakonChinainApril:Cumulativetariffincreaseof145%;evenwithalistofexemptions,still110%.

Product-specifictariffsonsteel,aluminum,autoandautoparts,copper,pharma,semiconductors,etc.

TarifftruceafterGenevatalks:US(China)effectivetariffrateonChina(US)backto42%(28%)for90days.

Londontalksseemtohavefocusedoneasingexportcontrolsforrareearths,semiconductors,etc.

Stockholmtalks:ExtensionoftheUS-Chinatarifftrucebyanother90days.

MadridtalksandTrump-Xiphonecall:AgreementonTikTok.

Re-escalation:Tighteningexportcontrolsontech/rareearths,portfees,potential100%UStariff,etc.

Malaysiatalks:Constructivediscussionsonfentanyltariffs,exportcontrols,USsoybeanexports,TikTok,etc.

Trump-XiSummiton30OctoberinSouthKoreaduringAPECmeeting.

Tariffshock:Theworstisbehindus,butuncertaintyremainsamajorriskfactor

ThecurrentUS-ChinatrucecouldfaceprolongeduncertaintyiftheUSSupremeCourtrulesagainstIEEPAtariffs.Theeffectivetariffratecouldberaisedrelativelyeasilytothecurrent30%levelbyincreasingthe

existingSection301tariffsfromthefirstroundoftradetensions,withouttheneedfornewinvestigations,asmightberequiredforothercountries.Wecontinuetoassumethattheaveragetariffratewillremainelevated,withthelikelihoodofitsmovinghigherinthe30-50%range.

China’sabilitytoexpandfurtherintonon-USmarketsisbecomingincreasinglychallenged,especiallyas

growthintheseeconomiesslows.Severalmarkets—includingBrazil,theEU,India,IndonesiaandMexico—havealreadyraisedtradebarriers.ItremainsuncertainwhetherChina’sdominanceinrareearthsupplieswillbesufficienttooffsettheseobstacles.Transshipmenttariffsremainsuncertain.

TarifftensionsbetweenChinaandtheUSsince2018

TariffincreaseimpactonChina,sgrowth

Averageeffectivetariffrate

China,sshareinglobalmarket

China,sshareinUSimports

Tariffimpactontrade:Lessonsoftarifftensions1.0

Chinaexportsbydestination

US-Chinabilateraltradedependence

Chinaexportshare,byproduct

China,sshareofglobalexports

Tarifftensions2.0

MarketshareofChineseimports

PriceadvantageofChinesegoods

Punitivetariffrateisdisruptive

China,sexportprices

Tarifftensions’impactoninvestment

China,srankinginMNCs,globalinvestmentplans

ChinaFDIflows

China,sODItoLatAm

China,sODItoASEAN

China’sresponse

Exportcontroloncriticalminerals

UseofUnreliableEntityList

CNYdepreciationin2018-19

Source:USGS,J.P.Morgan

Policyshiftand15thFYP

PolicyshiftsinceSeptember2024issignificant,butnotanothermega-stimulusorChina,s“whateverittakes”moment

Three-arrowpolicy:inorderofimportance,(1)structuralrebalancing(servicevs.manufacturing,consumptionvs.investment);(2)fiscalstimulus;(3)monetaryeasing

Policyswingbetweencyclicalandstructuralobjectives,whichisdata-dependent

Counter-cyclicalpolicymeasuressincelateSeptember2024:

•PBOC’sdelivery(24September2024)beatexpectations

•Fiscalmeasuresfocusedonriskmitigation,littleadditionalstimulus:amulti-year,10tnyuanLGhiddendebtswapprogram•UnconventionalfiscaleasingatMarchNPC:Budgetdeficitat4%ofGDP;governmentbondquotaanewrecordhigh

•Consumptionsupportfrompolicytalktoconcreteactions,andbigincreaseto~600bnyuan(vs.~300bnyuanin2024)

•Housingrelaxation:Furtherdemand-sideeasingintier-1cities,slowprogressinhousingde-stocking

JulyPolitburo:Apolicyshifttowardstructuralrebalancing:anti-involution;boostingconsumption

Anti-involutiontookplace,weighingoninvestmentandproduction,despitenarrowingPPIandindustrialprofitrecovery

3QGDPexceededexpectations(4.8%oyaor3.2%q/qar),asanti-involutionmeasureslikelyhavebeentacticallyscaledbackandgovernmentbondproceedsdeploymenthaspickedup,butdomesticdemand(retailsalesandFAI)hasstayedweak

Policymakersrecentlyannounceda1tnyuan(0.7%ofGDP)fiscalpackage,couldpartlyslipinto1Q

•500bnyuanpolicybanktool(100bnyuanforprivateprojects)forinfraandemergingsectorsinvestment

•500bnyuanLGBquotafordebtswaps,settlinglocalarrears(300bn)andprojectconstruction(200bn)

For2026,weexpecttheofficialdeficittoremainat4%ofGDP,asprivatedemandremainsweak.Supplementarysupportislikelyin2H26;thetotalbondquota,includingfordebtswaps,couldrise1.1tnyuan,toreach14.5trillionyuan

Fiscalthrustisprojectedat0.9%ptfor2025and0.4%ptfor2026

Despiteincreasedfiscalsupport,funddeploymentremainsslow;welookfor4QGDPtogrow3.0%q/qarand4.2%oya;the2025full-yearGDPforecaststandsat4.9%y/y

2026growthprofilerefined:Weraised1QGDPfrom5.5%q/qarto6.5%and2Qby0.7%pts,to4.9%,andweadjusted2Hslightlylower,toasteady3.6%;full-yearGDPfor2026isnowprojectedat4.4%(vs.4.2%previously)

15thFive-YearPlan

TheFourthPlenum(20-23October)approvedtheCCCPC’s“Recommendations”forthe15thFYP.

•Thecommuniquéofferedhigh-levelguidance.

•Thefullplan,includingnumerictargets,willbepublishednextMarch.

Theprioritiesandsequencingofmajortasksalignbroadlywithourexpectations.High-qualitydevelopmenttopsthe15thFYPgoals,followedbyenhancedtechnologicalself-sufficiency,deeperreforms,greatersocialcivility,improvedlivingstandards,environmentalprogress,andstrongernationalsecurity.

The2035modernizationgoalwasreaffirmed,aimingtoraiseper-capitaGDPtothelevelofmoderatelydevelopedcountries.

Buildingamodernindustrialsystemnowtopsmajortasks,withmanufacturingprioritizedoverservicesandafocusonadvancedtechnologyandinnovation.

•Thisalignswithourexpectations,particularlyregardinghigh-techindustrydevelopment,innovation,importsubstitutionofcriticalhardware,andindigenizationofadvancedtechnologyamidincreasingWesternrestrictions.

•Thisisfurtherdetailedinthesecondmajortask:acceleratinghigh-endtechnologicalself-relianceandstrengthanddevelopingnewproductiveforces.

Fortheservicessector,thefocusisonpromotinghigh-qualityandefficientdevelopment,ratherthanacceleratingmodernservicesasinthe14thFYPcommuniqué.

•Thissupportsourviewthatpolicysupportforserviceswillcontinue,butremainsecondarytomanufacturing,withnonumerictargets(suchasshareinGDP)setforservicesinthe15thFYP.

Boostingdemandisthethirdmajortask,focusingonpositiveinteractionbetweenconsumptionandinvestmentandbetweensupplyanddemand,andstrengtheningdomesticcirculation.

•Prioritiesforimprovinglivelihoodsandcommonprosperityincludehigh-qualityemployment,betterincomedistribution,robustsocialsecurity,andhigh-qualityrealestatedevelopment.

•Itremainstobeseenhowthedetailed“recommendations”andfull15thFYPwilladdresstheseareas.Wecontinuetoexpectprogress,butatagradualpace.

Summaryof13thand14thFYP(2016-2025)

Fiscalpolicy

Fiscalpolicy

Governmentbondissuance

Breakdownofaugmentedfiscalpolicy

Consumptionsupportincreasedsignificantly,butoverallsizeremainedmodestandwasdominatedbyinvestmentsupport

Debtproblem:Constraintonfiscalpolicy

China’sgovernmentdebt

Chinatotalnon-financialdebt

Interestrepaymentburden

Debtbreakdownbysector

Monetarypolicy

PolicyrateandRRR

China,sattenuationapproachtopolicyrate

Creditimpulsebreakdown

Publicvs.privatecreditgrowth

Monetarypolicy

Interestrepaymentanddebtswapimpact

Creditvs.GDPgrowth

NIMpressureisamajorconstraintforratecut

Corporateloangrowthbysector

Growthandinflationoutlook

4Q25and2026forecastupgradeonincreasedfiscalpolicysupport

2026growthtargetlikelystill“around5%”

Deflationwilllinger

Netexportstoremainamodestgrowthlift

Divergenceacrosssectors

High-techmanufacturing

Unevenrecovery

Breakdownofretailsales

BreakdownofIPactivity

Investmentbreakdown

Publicvs.privateinvestment

Manufacturing,infrastructureandrealestateFAI

Over-correctionofvolume-termhousingindicators

Breakdownofprivateinvestmentbysector

Housingasamajordragduringeconomictransformation

Commodityhousinginventory

Housingisapillarindustry

Averagelivingspace

Timeinconsistencyineconomictransformation

Anti-involutionefforts

Anti-involutionisrealandhastakenplace

Anti-involutionpolicies

Supply-demandimbalances

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

Weakconsumerconfidence

DriversofconsumptioninChina

Householdasset

Savingrate

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

IncomeshareinChina,highhouseholdsaving

LowshareofconsumptioninChina

Servicesconsumptioncomparison

Householdconsumption:Chinavs.US

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

Impactoftrade-insubsidies

Excesscapacityinmanufacturing,under-supplyinservices

China,stieredpensionsystem

Consumptionshare:Scenarioanalysis

Deflationpressuretolinger

ServiceandcoreCPI

Industrialcapacityutilization

Deflationpressure

PPIvs.globalcommodityprices

Exportsresiliency

Exportsvolumevs.price

Exportsstrongerthanexpectedin2025

Rareearthexports

High-techexports

BoPandCNY

BoPbreakdown

Currentaccountsurplus

CNYexchangerates

Southboundstockconnect

BoPandCNY

Theuseofcountercyclicalfactor

CNYexchangerates

Exporters,hedgeratio

FXsettlementvs.CNYFX

China’soverseasfinancialassetsandde-dollarization

Reserveassetsbreakdown

Chinaforeignassetbreakdownbysector

China,sgoldreserves

China,sholdingofmajorUSassets

AIpolicysupport

City-levelAIindustryfunds

PolicymeasurestosupportAIindustry

PrivateinvestmentinAI

AIindustryinChina

SummaryofChina’seconomicoutlook

Chinamacroindicatorheatmap

Chinaactivityindicatorheatmap

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