煤炭2025-分析和预测至2030报告（英文版）-IEA国际能源署

Coal2025

Analysisandforecastto2030

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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Coal2025Abstract

Analysisandforecastto2030

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Abstract

Coalisacornerstoneofelectricitygenerationinmanycountriesaswellasthesinglelargestsourceofcarbondioxideemissionsglobally,placingitatthecentreofinternationaldialoguesonenergy.Atatimeofuncertaintyandchangeforenergysystemsaroundtheworld,arangeofdifferenttrendscouldshapecoalmarketsintheyearsahead.

Ononehand,recentpolicychangessupportingcoalcoulddriveconsumptionhigher,ascouldsurgingelectricitydemandineconomiesacrosstheworld,sincetwo-thirdsofglobalcoalusetodayisforpowergeneration.Ontheotherhand,therapidexpansionofrenewableenergycapacityparticularlyinChina,theworldsbiggestcoalconsumerhasthepotentialtocurbdemand.Atthesametime,thecomingwaveofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)exportcapacity,whichislikelytobringmoreabundantsuppliesandlowerpricestonaturalgasmarkets,couldpromptsomeregionstofavourgasovercoal.

Coal2025thelatestannualmarketreportfromtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)explorestheimplicationsofthesekeydevelopmentsandmore.Drawingonthelatestdata,itanalysesrecenttrendsandprovidesforecaststhrough2030forcoaldemand,supplyandtradebygradeandregion.

Coal2025Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

Analysisandforecastto2030

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)publicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGasandCoalMarketsDivision(GCM),headedbyDennisHesseling,whoprovidedusefulsuggestionsandcommentsthroughouttheprocess.KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedessentialguidance.CarlosFernándezAlvarezledandco-ordinatedtheanalysis.HendrikDiers,StephanTerhorstandCarlosFernándezAlvarezaretheauthorsofthereport.AyaDarwashisthemainauthorofchapter5.

AnessentialinputforthisreportistheelectricityforecastprovidedbyErenÇamandhisteam.OtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedimportantcontributions,includingHeymiBahar,StephanieBouckaert,MarcCasanovas,JoelCouse,LauraCozzi,CaroleEtienne,MathildeFajardy,VíctorGarcíaTapia,TimGould,TimurGül,CiaránHealy,MiloszKarpinski,MartinKüppers,AkosLosz,GergelyMolnár,JohnMoloney,ArnauRísquezMartínandFrederickRitter.

TimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewerefundamentaltothereport.ThanksgotoZuzanaDobrotkovaforherinvaluablesupport.ThanksalsogototheIEAChinadesk,particularlyRebeccaMcKimm,fortheirresearchonChina.

TheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedproductionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullen,HeadofCDO,andhisteam:AstridDumond,JuliaHorowitz,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandLivGaunt.JustinFrench-Brookseditedthereport.

OurgratitudegoestotheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsattheUniversityofCologne(EWI)forsharingtheirextensivecoalexpertiseandmodellinginsights.

CRUprovidedinvaluabledataandinformationforthisreport.ThankstoGlenKurokawaandJonathanLohfortheirsupportandsuggestions.

OurgratitudegoestotheIEACoalIndustryAdvisoryBoard(CIAB)foritssupport.

Specialthanksgototheinternationalexpertswhoprovidedinputduringtheprocessand/orreviewedthedraftofthereport.Theyinclude:JoséAlfaro(CoreResources),RandallAtkins(Ramaco),KevinBall(WhitehavenCoal),PaulBaruya(FutureCoal)MichaelCaravaggio(EPRI),AlexandreClaude(DryBulk),NikkiFisher(Thungela),PeterMorris(MineralsCouncilofAustralia),DmitryPopov(Oldendorff),BrianRicketts(Euracoal),HansWilhelmSchiffer(RWE),Sandy

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Tickell(Glencore),PaulSimons(YaleUniversity),RodolfoShimatsu(Telf)andAkiraYabumoto(J-POWER).

Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportarenotresponsibleforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerrororomissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.

Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactCarlosFernándezAlvarez(carlos.fernandezalvarez@).

Coal2025Tableofcontents

Analysisandforecastto2030

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 7

Demand 12

Supply 43

Trade 62

Pricesandcosts 75

Investmentsincoalprojectsandemissionsabatement 98

Generalannex 109

Coal2025Executivesummary

Analysisandforecastto2030

Executivesummary

Globalcoaldemandin2025issettoremaincloseto2024levelsamidunusualregionaltrends

Keyfactorssuchasweather,fuelpricesandpolicydecisionsallshapedglobalcoalconsumptionin2025,drivingchangesindemandthatoftenrancountertorecentcountryorregionaltrends.

InIndiaoneofthetraditionalenginesofcoaldemandgrowthanearlyandstrongmonsoonseasondepressedelectricitydemandandboostedhydropoweroutput.Asaresult,thecountrysannualcoalpowergenerationissettodeclineyear-on-yearforonlythethirdtimeinthepastfivedecades.IntheUnitedStates,wherecoaldemandhasdecreasedbyanaverageof6%annuallyoverthepast

15years,consumptionispoisedtoincreaseby8%in2025amidacombinationofhighernaturalgaspricesandaslowdownintheretirementofcoalplantsduetopolicysupportledbythefederalgovernment.IntheEuropeanUnion(EU),lowerhydropowerandwindoutputpushedupcoalpowergenerationinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Asaresult,EUcoaldemandissettodecreasebyonlyaround2%in2025amuchsmallerdeclinethanthedouble-digitdropsin2023and2024.

InChina

1

,whichconsumesmorecoalthantherestoftheworldcombined,demandisoncoursetomirrorits2024level,asexpected.Inturn,globalcoaldemandin2025issettobeveryclosetoourforecastpublishedinthepreviouseditionofthisreportayearago,risingby0.5%to8.85billiontonnes,arecordhigh.

Globalcoalconsumptionhasreachedaplateauandmaywelldeclineslightlyby2030

Globalcoaldemandisexpectedtoeffectivelyplateauoverthecomingyears,showingaverygradualdeclinethroughto2030inourlatestforecast.Bythatyear,consumptionisforecasttoeaseby3%comparedwith2025,takingitbelowits2023level.Globalpowergenerationfromcoalisforecasttosinkbelowits2021levelbytheendofthisdecade.

Stronggrowthinglobalelectricitydemandcouldsupportcoalconsumptionintheyearsahead.Butcompetitionwithotherpowersourcesisalsosettointensify,with

1Inthisreport,ChinareferstothePeoplesRepublicofChinaandHongKong(China).

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renewablecapacitysurging,nuclearexpandingsteadily,andawaveofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)arrivingonthemarket.

Sincecoalsubstitutioninindustryisslow,coalusebythesectorisforecasttodeclinebylessthan1%peryearthroughtheendofthedecade.However,thisslightdropisexpectedbeoffsetbyanincreaseincoalgasificationplants,mainlyinChina.

Themostsubstantialgrowthincoalconsumptionbetweennowand2030isexpectedtotakeplaceinIndia,wheredemandisforecasttoriseby3%peryearonaverage,leadingtoacumulativeincreaseofover200milliontonnes(Mt).Meanwhile,thefastestgrowthisexpectedtohappeninSoutheastAsia,wherecoaldemandisforecasttogrowbymorethan4%peryearto2030.

Againstacomplexenergybackdrop,ourforecastforthenextfiveyearsissubjecttosomesignificantuncertaintiesthatcouldimpactitmaterially.Forexample,intheeventofstronger-than-expecteduptakeofcoalgasification,notablyinChina

–oriftheintegrationofnewrenewablecapacityintopowersystemsproceedsmoreslowlythananticipated–globalcoaldemandcouldexceedourforecast.Atthesametime,ifthecompetitionfromotherenergysourcesisstrongerthananticipated,thiscouldpushoverallcoalconsumptionlowerthanourforecast.

Chinaremainsthekeydriverofglobalcoalmarkettrends

Chinaconsumes30%morecoalthantherestoftheworldputtogether.Italsoproducesmorecoalthanallothercountriescombined,anditistheworld’slargestimporter.ThisdominancebyasinglecountrymakesglobalcoalmarketsverydependentondevelopmentsinChina,notablythoserelatedtoeconomicgrowth,governmentpolicies,energymarkets,weatherconditionsanddynamicsintheChinesedomesticcoalsector.

WhileourforecastseescoaldemandinChinadecreasingsomewhatoverthenextfiveyears,thedeclineisslow(bylessthan1%annuallyonaverage)–andhigherelectricitydemandgrowth,lowerrenewableenergydispatchoranaccelerationincoalgasificationprojectscouldturntheslightdropintoasmallincrease.TheChinesegovernmenthasemphasiseditsambitionofreachingpeakcoalconsumptionbefore2030.

NewpolicymomentumbehindcoalemergesintheUnitedStates

AnotabledevelopmentincoalmarketsistheemergenceofstrongpolicysupportforcoalintheUnitedStates,whichhelpedliftcoaldemandtherein2025.Several

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measureshavebeenadoptedtosupportboththesupplyandthedemandside.Theseincludeenvironmentalexemptionsallowingsomecoalplantstocontinueoperating,areductionoftheroyaltyrateforcoalminingonfederallandsandsupportforretrofittingcoalplants.

Inourforecast,UScoaldemanddeclinesby6%peryearonaveragethrough2030,basedonongoinggrowthinrenewablegenerationcapacityandthecontinuationofcoalplantretirements,albeitataslowerpacethanpreviouslyexpected.However,therateofdeclineinUScoalusecouldbeslowerifelectricitydemandishigherthanexpectedorifcoalplantretirementsstall.NaturalgaspriceswillalsoplayaroleincoaldemandtrendsintheUnitedStates.

Afterreachingrecordhighin2024,globalcoal

productionissettodeclineslightlythrough2030

Globalcoalproductionisforecasttoremainatsimilarlevelin2025totheall-timehighitreachedin2024.Inthefirsthalfof2025,Chinascoaloutputgrew6%comparedwiththesameperiodin2024,butabundantstocks,lowpricesandsafetycampaignshaveledtodeclinessinceJuly.Forthewholeyear,weexpectChinesecoalproductiontoriseby1%.

InIndia,amidweakdemandandchallengingworkingconditionsduetoheavyrains,thegrowthincoalproductionseeninrecentyearscametoahaltin2025.Meanwhile,inIndonesia,coalproductionisexpectedtodeclinein2025forthefirsttimesincetheonsetoftheCovid-19pandemicduetoshrinkinginternationalcoaltrade.IntheUnitedStates,coalproductionissettoincrease,spurredbydomesticdemandandpolicysupport.

Lookingahead,givenhealthycoalstocksinmostregionsandsluggishglobaldemand,weforecastthatglobalcoalproductionwilldeclineslightlythrough2030.Amongmajorproducers,Indiaisforecasttohavethehighestoutputgrowth,basedonstrongdomesticdemandandfavourablegovernmentpolicies.ThebiggestuncertaintyisinChina,whereevensmallpolicychangesordemandfluctuationscanaffectcoaloutputsufficientlytohaveanimpactoninternationalmarkets.

Chinahasdrivenglobalgrowthinimports,butthishasstartedtochange

Globalimportsofcoalreachedanall-timehighin2024,evenasmajorimporterssuchasJapan,Korea,ChineseTaipeiandEUcountriescontinuedtoreducethevolumestheybroughtin.DeclinesinthosemarketsweremorethanoffsetbyrobustgrowthinChinaand,toalesserextent,India,alongsidesmallerincreasesincountriessuchasVietNamandthePhilippines.However,ChinaandIndias

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coalimportsdeclinedin2025amidsluggishdemand,sufficientdomesticproductionandabundantstocks.Asaresult,globalimportsareoncoursetofallbyaround5%in2025.

Coalimportsareexpectedtoseeasharpdeclinegloballyovertheforecastperiod.Inadvancedeconomies,theyaresettokeepshrinkingthrough2030.Meanwhile,Indiafacesamixedoutlook,withastrongpushfordomesticproductiontemperedbytheneedforimportsduetocoalqualityissues.

Chinawillultimatelyshapetheglobaltrends.Asitstandstoday,Chineseimportsareforecasttodeclinebyaround2.5%peryearonaveragethrough2030.However,thedecreasewillbeconcentratedinthermalcoal.India,whichhasplanstoexpandsteelproductionandlimiteddomesticsupplyofmetallurgicalcoal,isexpectedtoboostmetallurgicalcoalimports,offsettingthedeclineselsewhere.

Internationalcoaltradeisunderpressure,with

prospectsstrongerformetallurgicalcoalexporters

ThedeclineinChineseimportsin2025ledtothefirstdropintheglobalcoaltradesince2020.Indonesia,thelargestexporterandsuppliertoChina,sawthebiggestdecrease,reducingexportsbyalmost50Mt.Inpercentageterms,however,Colombialedthefall,withexportsdroppingbyaround20%in2025.TheUnitedStatesalsosawexportsdeclineslightly.InRussia,exportsareexpectedtoremainatasimilarlevelto2024.

Lookingahead,ascoalimportsshrinkandpricesarepressuredbycheaperandmoreabundantLNGsupplies,thecompetitionamongexporterswillintensify.ThedeclinesinimportdemandfromJapan,KoreaandChineseTaipeicouldhurtAustralia’sthermalcoalexports,whereasIndonesia’scoalsectorissettoremaintiedtodemandtrendsinChina.Metallurgicalcoalexporters,ledbyAustralia,appeartohavethestrongerprospectsduetotherelativelyrobustdemandoutlookinIndia.

Weakeningdemandandoversupplyhavepushedcoalpricesdown

AftersoaringtoarecordhighduringtherecentenergycrisislinkedtoRussia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022,thermalcoalpriceshavepulledbackoverthepasttwoyears.In2025,theywerearound10%lowerinEuropeandaround20%lowerinAsiacomparedwith2024,thoughtherewerenotabledifferencesgeographicallyoverthecourseoftheyear.

InChina,pricesdeclinedinthefirsthalfof2025butthenstartedincreasingonceproductionshrankanddemandrose.Meanwhile,inEurope,therewasasmall

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pricespikeinthefirsthalfoftheyearasdemandincreasedamidlowerhydropowerandwindoutput.PricesinAustralia,whicharesensitivetoJapaneseandKoreandemand,fellbelowEuropeanlevelsinApril,thenroseagainthroughAugust.Overall,thermalcoalpricesaregettingclosertosupplycosts,withprofitsshrinkingaccordingly.

Mergersandacquisitionsinthecoalsectorhavebeenonpausesince2024

Largeprofitsgeneratedinthe2021-2023periodgaverisetoanactivephaseofmergersandacquisitionsintheinternationalcoalsector.Minersdoublingdownoncoalhadsufficientcashtopurchaseattractiveassets,whichallowedcompanieswishingtodiversifyawayfromcoaltosellatreasonableprices.Inthecurrentlowerpriceenvironment,coalminingcompaniesarenotasprofitableastheywere.Asaresult,mergersandacquisitionsactivityhasalmostgroundtoahaltsince2024,withveryfewnewdealsannounced.

Coal2025Demand

Analysisandforecastto2030

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Demand

Globalcoaldemandplateaucontinues,withdemandat2023levelsin2030

Globalcoaldemandin2024isestimatedtohavereached8805Mt,anincreaseof1.5%onthepreviousyear.GrowthwasconcentratedinAsia,whileadvancedeconomiescontinuedtheirstructuraldeclineinconsumption.Powersectorcoaluseremainedthedominantdriver,supportedbyseasonalfactorsandhydropowervariability,whilenon-powercoaldemandheldbroadlystable.ChinaandIndiaaccountedfor71%ofglobalconsumption,reinforcingtheeastwardshiftindemand.

For2025,globalcoaldemandisprojectedtoreach8845Mt,settinganewrecord.Theincreaseofaround40Mtcomparedwith2024isverysimilartotheforecastwemadelastyear.Whilethereweresomeunusualregionaltrends,theyhadtheeffectofcancellingeachotherout.TheUnitedStatespostedthelargestabsolutegainofabout37Mt,supportedbypolicymeasuresandhighergasprices.IntheEuropeanUnion(EU)thedeclineincoaldemandslowed,mostlyduetowinddroughtsinthefirsthalfoftheyear.AndalthoughIndiahasbeentheengineofgrowthinrecentyears,in2025itscoaldemandhasbeenfalling.

Meanwhile,China’scoalconsumptionheldsteadyat4953Mt,withflexiblecoal-firedpowersupportingrenewablesandcoaldemandincreasingforchemicalproduction,offsettingdeclinesincementandotherindustries.ASEAN(AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations)countries’demandcontinuestoexpandonthebackofnewpowercapacityandmetalsprocessingactivity.Overall,thepictureisacomplexinterplaybetweenexpansioninemergingmarketsandthephase-outchallengesinmaturesystems.

Intheperiodto2030,globalcoaldemandisforecasttocontinueitsplateau,albeitfallingslightlybytheendofthedecade.Inourforecast,globalcoaldemandin

2030isexpectedtothelevelseenintheyearspriorto2023.China’sshareremainsdominant,althoughitscoaldemanddeclinesveryslowlyasrenewablesexpandandcoal’sroleinthepowersectorshiftstowardsflexibility.Indiaemergesasthemainsourceofincrementaldemand,adding225Mtfrom2025to2030,whileASEANcountriescontribute127Mt,drivenbyIndonesiaandVietNam.Incontrast,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesregisterfurtherdeclinesof

153Mtand106Mt,respectively,asphase-outpoliciesandfuelswitchingaccelerate.Intherestoftheworldcoaldemanddeclinesby179Mt,reflectingmixedtrendsacrossAfrica,SouthAsia(excludingIndia)andotheremergingmarkets.

Coal2025Demand

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Acrossallregions,coalsoperationalroleisevolving.InAsiacoalremainscriticalforelectricitysecurityandindustrialprocesses,butitsshareinpowergenerationdeclinessteadilyasrenewablesscaleup.Advancedeconomiescontinuetophaseoutcoalinpowergeneration,reinforcingthestructuraleastwardshiftinglobaldemand.By2030,coaldemandisexpectedtostabilisewithinanarrowband,withnon-poweruses,particularlychemicals,providingresilienceevenassteelandcementconsumptionweaken.

Globalcoalconsumption,2000-2030

Mt

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

0

2000200520102015202020252030

aChinaaIndiaaASEANaUnitedStates

aEuropeanUnionORestofworldaForecast

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Changeinglobalcoalconsumption,2024-2030

Mt

9000

8900

8800

8700

8600

8500

8400

8300

8200

37

179

88058845

8579

153

127

106

225

181

2024-+2025-+2030

ChinaIndiaASEANUnitedStates

aEuropeanUnionaRestofworldSForecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Coal-firedpowergenerationdeclinesslightlythroughto2030

Ourforecastofcoaldemandforpowergenerationismadeatindividualcountrylevel,takingintoaccountelectricitydemand,renewableenergypoliciesanddevelopment,andexpectationsoffuturefuelpricesandgenerationcapacities(seeElectricityreportformoredetail).Globalelectricitygenerationisestimatedtohavereached31100TWhin2024.Renewablesdeliveredthelargestshareofincrementalgrowth,whilecoal-firedgenerationremainedakeysourceofelectricitysecuritydespiteitsdecliningshareintheglobalmix.Coaldemandforpowergenerationin2024isestimatedat5946Mt,withreductionsinadvancedeconomiesoffsetbygainsinemergingmarkets.

Totalelectricitygenerationin2025isprojectedtorisetoaround32200TWh.Mostofthisgrowthisexpectedtocomefromrenewables,whichcontinuetoexpandatarecordpace,whilenuclearandgasalsocontributemodestly.Coaldemandforpowergenerationremainsbroadlystableat5964Mt,supportedbyseasonalheatingneedsandsystemadequacyrequirements,particularlyinAsia.China’suseofcoalforpowerisexpectedtoremainnear3billiontonnes,sustainedbystrongelectricitydemandgrowthandheldbackbyformidablerenewablesexpansion.India’scoaldemandforpowerisestimatedat940Mt.Despitenewcoal-firedunits,totalling14GW,havebeencommissioned,renewableenergysourcesaregrowingrapidly,andtheyaloneoffsettheweakgrowthinelectricitydemand.

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Incontrast,theEuropeanUnioncontinuestoseestructuraldeclinesincoal-firedgenerationin2025,albeitaslowingreductionduetolowerhydroandwindoutputinthefirsthalfoftheyear.IntheUnitedStates,policymeasuresandreliabilityconcernsslowthepaceofretirements,andcoal-firedpowergenerationisexpectedtorebound.ASEANcountries,ledbyIndonesiaandVietNam,recordfurtherincreasesincoaluseforpowergeneration,drivenbynewcapacityandindustrialloads,whileadvancedeconomiesinAsiaPacific,suchasJapan,KoreaandAustralia,continuetoreducecoalconsumptionasitisreplacedbyrenewablesandmoreabundantLNG.

Changeinglobalelectricitygenerationbysource,2024-2030

TWh

39000

38000

37000

36000

35000

34000

33000

32000

31000

30000

●

38000

32200

31100

●

2024-+2025-+2030

CoalGasNuclearRenewablesOthersForecast

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Lookingahead,globalelectricitygenerationisexpectedtoreachover38000TWhby2030,withrenewablesaccountingfortheoverwhelmingshareofincrementalsupply.Nuclearandgasalsoexpand,whilecoalsroleshiftstowardssystemadequacyandflexibilityratherthanbaseloadgeneration.Globalcoaldemandforpowergenerationisprojectedtoplateauataround5700Mt,withitsshareoftheelectricitymixfallingfrom35%in2024to27%by2030.Installedcoal-firedcapacityremainshigh,butaverageutilisationdeclinesasretrofittingprogrammesenablelowerminimumloadoperationandfasterrampingtocomplementvariablerenewables.Thesechangesunderscorethatcoalremainsessentialforreliabilityinseveralregions,yetitsoperationalroleisincreasinglydecoupledfromenergyoutputascleanenergygrowthaccelerates.

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Emergingeconomiesdrivegrowthinnon-powersteamcoalandligniteto2030

Coalisusedinindustrialapplicationssuchascement,aluminaandpaperproduction,coal-to-chemicals,andheatingforsmall-scaleindustry,evenasstructuralchangesreshapedemand.Ourforecast,madeatindividualcountrylevel,takesintoaccountthesectorsinwhichdifferentcountriesusecoaltogetherwithhistoricalrecordsandprospectsforgrowth,usingexpectationsforeconomicperformance,industrialproductionandspecificindustrialoutputs.

Globalnon-powerconsumptionofsteamcoalandligniteroseslightlyin2024to1757Mt,accountingforabout23%oftotalsteamcoalandligniteuse.Growthwasconcentratedinemergingeconomies,whileEuropeandadvancedAsiaPacificmarketscontinuedtoseeadecline.

In2025,non-powersteamcoalandlignitedemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlystableat1766Mt,representinga0.6%increaseonthepreviousyear.China’scoal-to-chemicalssectord