数据中心的平衡之道：美国各州如何在机遇与挑战之间抉择

August2025

Mckunsey

&company

PublicSectorPractice

Thedatacenterbalance:

HowUSstatescan

navigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges

Stategovernmentswillneedtobalanceacomplexrangeofcostsandafullviewofthebenefitsastheyweightheirstrategiesindatacenter

development.

ThearticleisacollaborativeeffortbyAdamBarth,ChhaviArora,GayatriShenai,JesseNoffsinger,andPankaj

Sachdeva,representingviewsfromMcKinseyTechnologyandMcKinsey’sPublicSectorandTechnology,Media&TelecommunicationsPractices.

Datacentersrepresentthefoundationalinfrastructurethatfuelsthemanydigitalservicesthatindividuals,businesses,andgovernmentsrelyoneveryday.Thisbackboneofthedigital

economyispoisedforsignificantgrowthasthedemandforcloudcomputingandAIaccelerates.

StatesacrosstheUnitedStatesarealreadyseeingasurgeininterestandinvestmentfromhyperscalersandcolocationproviders1lookingtobuildoutdatacenters.

Ouranalysisshowsthatby2030,

companieswillinvestalmost$7trillionincapitalexpenditures

ondatacenterinfrastructure

globally.2Morethan$4trillionofitwillgotowardcomputing-

hardwareinvestments,withthebalancegoingtowardareassuchasrealestateandpower

infrastructure(Exhibit1).Morethan40percentofthisspendingwillbeinvestedintheUnitedStates.

Exhibit1

$6.7trillionofcapitalexpenditurewillbecumulativelydeployedindatacenterinfrastructurethrough2030.

Globaldistributionofcapitalinvestmentsacrossdatacenter

valuechain

segments,2025-30,$trillion

Electricalandmechanical

equipment

powergeneration

~0.4

Networkinfrastructure

Totalbysegment

Builders~1.0

.Energizers~1.3

Designersand4.4manufacturers

overalltotal~6.7

(1.0%ofglobalGDP

3annually

1ncludesmechanical,electrical,andplumbing.

2Includinggraphicsprocessingunits(GPUs)andcentralprocessingunits(cpus).

3GlobalGDP:$106trillion(2023).

source:Goldmansachs;S&pcapitalIQ;MckinseyDatacenterCAPEXTAM&Demandmodel;analystreports;expertinterviews

Mckinsey&company

1Acolocationproviderdeliverssecure,high-availabilitydatacenterinfrastructure—forinstance,space,power,cooling,and

connectivity—forcustomerstooperatetheirownhardware.ExamplesincludeCyxtera,DigitalRealty,Equinix,andFlexential.

2

“Thecostofcompute:A$7trillionracetoscaledatacenters,

”McKinseyQuarterly,April28,2025.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges2

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges3

WhilemuchisstillunknownaboutAI’sgrowthtrajectoryandtherelatedeconomicdynamics,thescaleofAIinvestmentcoulddrivesignificantGDPgrowth,createthousandsofhigh-payingjobs,andspurinnovationacrossvarioussectors.Significantchallengesexist,however—from

infrastructureneedstoconsumerbacklash—andstategovernmentsshoulddevelopaclearviewofthetruecostsandbenefitsastheyweightheirstrategies.

Wherethedatacentervalueis

Statesthatcaneffectivelyplan,manage,andmitigatetherisksofdatacentergrowthstandtounlockmillions,perhapsevenbillions,ofdollarsindirectandindirectgrowth.Atthesametime,theycancreatehigh-payingjobsandestablishthemselvesasleadingdigital-infrastructure

hubs.

NorthernVirginiaexemplifieshowstrategicplanningcanharnessdatacentergrowth.By

investinginrobustinfrastructure,maintainingareliableenergygrid,andofferingtargetedtaxincentives,theregionaccountsfor13percentoftheworld’sdatacentercapacity.3Atthesametime,ithasmitigatedrisksthroughlocalzoningcontrolsandenergyefficiencymeasures,whilealsobecomingaglobaldigital-infrastructurehubthathasresultedinbillionsinsupported

economicoutput.4

AnalysisbytheNorthernVirginiaTechnologyCouncilandtheJointLegislativeAuditandReviewCommissionsuggeststhatdatacenterinvestmentcouldcreatevalueforstatesinfourmain

ways(notethatthespecificcircumstancesofindividualstateswillaffectthepotential):

—Economicgrowth.InvestmentindatacenterscandriveGDPgrowth,createthousandsofhigh-payingjobs,andspurinnovationacrossvarioussectors.Basedonastudybythe

NorthernVirginiaTechnologyCouncil,thestateofVirginiageneratedabout$31billioninsupportedeconomicoutputfromdatacenterconstructionandoperationsin2023,aswellassupportingservices,withsignificantbenefitstobothstateandlocalgovernmentsin

collectedtaxes.5

—Jobsandskills.Atypicallargedatacenter(around250,000squarefeet,forexample)can

addupto1,500workerson-siteduringtheconstructionphase,requiringacrewofsite

developers,equipmentoperators,constructionworkers,electricians,andtechnicians,manyearningwagesupwardof$100,000peryear(notincludingovertime).Manyofthesejobsdonotrequireacollegedegree.Forsteady-stateoperations,morethan50jobscanbecreated(forexample,facilitymanagers,engineers,technicians,andfacilitymaintenancestaff).

Additionally,foreveryjobinsideadatacenter,however,anextraestimated3.5jobsarecreatedinthesurroundingeconomy(suchasthroughupgradestosupporting

infrastructure).6

—Cross-sectoralgrowth.Datacenterscanactascatalystsfortangentialindustriessuchas

3DatacentersinVirginia:ReporttothegovernorandthegeneralassemblyofVirginia,JointLegislativeAuditandReviewCommission,December9,2024.

4TheimpactofdatacentersonVirginia’sstateandlocaleconomies:5thbiennialreport,NorthernVirginiaTechnologyCouncil,April2024.

5TheimpactofdatacentersonVirginia’sstateandlocaleconomies:5thbiennialreport,NorthernVirginiaTechnologyCouncil,April2024.

6DatacentersinVirginia:ReporttothegovernorandthegeneralassemblyofVirginia,JointLegislativeAuditandReviewCommission,December9,2024.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges4

energy,telecom,cloudservices,software,andmanufacturing,spurringthedevelopmentofadditionalelementsofthedatacentervaluechain.NorthernVirginia’sdatacenterboom,forinstance,increasedpowerdemand,leadingDominionEnergytobuildnewsubstationsandtransmissionlines(forexample,thesubstationprojectintheregion’sHaymarketarea7).DatacentergrowthinLoudounandPrinceWilliamcounties,inVirginia,oftencalledDataCenterAlley,ledtoaboominrealestate.8

—Innovation.Thetechnologicaldemandsofdatacenterscanhelpspurresearchand

innovation.Thepowerdemandsofdatacentersaredrivinginnovationingreen-energyandsustainablepowersolutionssuchasfuelcells,solarpower,andsmallmodularreactors.Withthegrowthinthemodularizationofdatacenters,constructioncanbefasterandmore

sustainablethantraditionalmethods.9

Demandgrowthandshiftsindatacenters

Ouranalysisshowsthatglobaldemandfordatacentercapacitycanmorethantripleby2030,withacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofaround22percent(Exhibit2).IntheUnited

States,datacenterdemandcouldgrowby20to25percentperyearoverthesameperiod.

Exhibit2

Globaldemandfordatacentercapacitycouldmorethantripleby2030.

Demandfordatacentercapacity,'gigawatts

2030219

+22%

CAGR

2030171

202355

+18%

CAGR

202355

Midrangescenario

Low-rangescenario

2030298

+27%

CAGR

202355

upper-rangescenario

'Threescenariosshowingtheupper-,low-,andmidrangeestimatesofdemand,basedonanalysisofAladoptiontrends;growthinshipmentsofdifferenttypesofchips(application-specificintegratedcircuits,graphicsprocessingunits,etc)andassociatedpowerconsumption;andthetypicalcompute,storage,and

networkneedsofAIWorkloads.Demandismeasuredbypowerconsumptiontoreflectthenumberofserversafacilitycanhouse.

source:MckinseyDatacenterDemandmodel

Mckinsey&company

7“Dominionannouncesplansfornewsubstation,transmissionlineinHaymarketarea,”InsideNoVa,August4,2014.

9

“AIpower:Expandingdatacentercapacitytomeetgrowingdemand,”

McKinsey,October29,2024.

8TheimpactofdatacentersonVirginia’sstateandlocaleconomies:5thbiennialreport,NorthernVirginiaTechnologyCouncil,April2024.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges5

About70percentofthatprojected2030demandwillcomefromhyperscalers,atrendalreadyevidentintherecentannouncementsoftechgiantspartneringwithvariousUSstatestoinvestbillionsinconstructinglarge-scaledatacentersites.Hyperscalersareworkingonbuildinglargecampusestocapturethevalueofcolocatedcompute,resultinginsitesthatoftencover

hundredsofacres.(Formoreabouttheanalysis,seesidebar,“Methodology.”)

Fourtrendswillbethebiggestdriversofthisdemand:

—GrowthofAIandhigh-performancecomputing.TherapidevolutionofAItechnologyhas

resultedinthedevelopmentoflargelanguagemodelswithadvancedreasoningcapabilities(forexample,OpenAI’sGPT-4)thatarecomputationallymoreintensethanpreviousversions.Gen-AI-leddemandisestimatedtobearound40percentthrough2030.

—Thecontinuinggrowthofcloudmigrationandsoftwareasaservice.DatacenterdemandintheUnitedStatesfromcloudandothernon-gen-AI-relateddriversisprojectedtogrowat16percentCAGRthrough2023.

—Theincreasingdigitalizationofpublicservices.Weanticipateanincreaseindigitalizedservicesinareassuchashealthcare,theDepartmentofMotorVehicles,anddigital

identificationforresidents.

—Acceleratingtechnologytrends.TrendssuchastheInternetofThingsandtherolloutof5Gnetworkswilldriveadditionaltechnologyneeds,suchasedgecomputing.

Methodology

DatacenterdemandandfinancialestimatesinthisarticlearederivedfromMcKinsey’sproprietarydatacenterdemandmodel,whichprojectsdatacentercapacityundermultiplescenariosshapedbyfactorssuchassemiconductorsupplyconstraints,enterpriseAIadoption,efficiencyimprovements,andregulatorychallenges.Investmentrequirementswerecalculatedbytranslatingdemand

projectionsforgigawattcapacityintocapitalexpendituresacrossmajorcostcategories,including

power(forexample,generationandtransmission),datacenterinfrastructure(forexample,electrical,mechanical,site,andshell),andITequipment(forexample,AIaccelerators,networking,andstorage).

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges6

Thesurgingdemandiscreatingcapacitychallengesforprimarymarkets,whicharealreadysaturatedwithdatacenters.ArecentreportfromrealestatefirmCBREshowsrecordlowvacancyratesof1.9percentinprimarydatacentermarketsin2024.10Forthisreason,

hyperscalersareturningtosecondary,high-potentialandemergingmarkets(Exhibit3).

Exhibit3

Datacentersareemerginginmoreremotelocations,wherepowerisstillabundantandgridslessstrained.

Emergingmarkets

Emergingdemandinmarketswherepowerisstillabundant

primarymarkets

Existingdemandofmorethan800MW1

in

secondarymarketsLowerbutfast-

DatacenterpresencethecontinentalUs

growingdemand

pacificNorthwest

Minnesota

Boston

Northernwisconsin

chicagopennsylvania

californiawyoming

Newyork

NewJersey

owa

saltLakecityomaha

Denver

ohioIndiana

Northern

Lasvegas

virginia

kansas

Los

Northcarolina

Albuquerqueoklahoma

Angeles

Tennessee

southcarolina

●

Alabama

AtlantaMississippi

phoenix

Dallas

Austin/sanAntonio

Houston

Florida

'Megawatt.

source:Datacenters.com;S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence451Research;MckinseyDatacenterDemandmodel

Mckinsey&company

10NorthAmericadatacentertrendsH22024:Surgingdemanddrivesrecordnewdatacenterdevelopment,CBRE,February26,2025.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges7

Acloserlookatthetrade-offs

Therapidexpansionofdatacentercapacitybringssignificantchallenges,especiallyforpublicinfrastructure.Stateswillneedtocarefullyconsiderthefollowing:

—Strainsonpowersupply.DatacenterpowerneedsintheUnitedStatesareexpectedtoaddabout460terawatt-hoursofdemandfrom2023to2030,threetimesthecurrentlevelof

consumption(Exhibit4).Thissubstantialnewloadonregionalgrids,especiallyin

constrainedzones,willrequirenewsupplybuild-outsandincrementaltransmission

expansion.Thetimelinesforthisinfrastructuredevelopmentcanbechallengingtomeetwiththerapidpaceofdatacenterdemands.Additionally,theNorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporationanticipateslowreservemarginsandpotentialsupplyshortfallsacrossmany

regions.11Insomecases,theincrementaldemandisalsoaddingtensiontostate

decarbonizationtargets,complicatingeffortstobalancegrowthwithsustainability.

—Waterscarcity.Datacentersneedalotofwater,whichcanplacestressonlocalwater

supplies.ArecentreportfromWestWaterResearchforecaststhatdata-center-related

waterconsumptionintheUnitedStatesislikelytoincreaseby170percentby2030.12Whilesitecoolingconfigurationsthatrelylessonwaterareavailable,theyrequiresubstantially

morepowerandinvolvelessestablishedtechnologies.Additionally,newpower—particularlythermalplants—thatcomeonlinetosupportdatacentershavetheirownsignificantwaterdemandsforcooling.Forexample,thecitycouncilofdrought-proneMesa,Arizona,faced

majorresistancefromthecommunitywhenthecouncilapprovedthebuildingofahyperscaledatacenterthatrequiresmorethanonemilliongallonsofwateraday.13

—Resourcebottlenecks.Launchingadatacenterrequiressignificantland,labor,and

equipmentresources,whichcanbedifficulttoprocureinstatesthatarealreadyusingthoseresources.Findingtrainedtalentspecificallyfordatacenterandassociatedpower

infrastructurecanbeachallengewhenthoseprofessionalsaredoingotherelectrical-andmechanical-installationwork.14Theseresourceconstraintscouldhaveabigimpactonthetimelycompletionandoperationalefficiencyofnewdatacenterprojects.

—Opportunitycosts.Committinglandandresourcestolong-term,capital-intensiveprojectssuchasdatacenterscanentailsignificantopportunitycosts.Thereisariskofcrowdingoutbothotherhigh-impactinvestments—suchasmanufacturing,residential,andurban

development—aswellascapitalforbuildingtransportinfrastructuresuchasroads.

Furthermore,thetaxbreaksgrantedtodatacentercompaniesmightoffsetanygains,underscoringtheopportunitycostargument.

—Riskofshelvedprojects.Foralltheinvestment,somehyperscalershavepulledbackfromorpausedsomeoftheircommitmentstobuildinglarge-scaledatacenters.Thismaybethe

resultofseveralfactors,includingeconomicuncertainty,powerconstraints,construction

112024long-termreliabilityassessment,NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation,updatedJuly15,2025.12RaneemIftekharandOliverBrowne,Estimatingdatacenterwaterdemand,WestWaterResearch,March2025.13OliviaSolon,“Drought-strickencommunitiespushbackagainstdatacenters,”NBCNews,June19,2021.

14“HowdatacentersandtheenergysectorcansateAI’shungerforpower,”McKinsey,September17,2024.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges8

projectdelays,orpotentialoversupplyofcapacity.Additionally,AIandmachinelearning

workloadsaredrivingdemandforspecializeddatacenterdesigns,requiringhyperscalerstoreconsiderexistingplans.Allthesefactorscombinedhighlightthecomplexityofaccurate

demandforecastingoverthemediumtolongterm.Forthisreason,itisimportanttoplanearlyintheprocessformechanismsthatsharetheresponsibilityforunfinishedprojects.

—Consumerbacklash.Thechallengeslistedherehavethepotentialtocreateconsumerobjectionstodatacenterdevelopment.Governmentswillhavetoweighthecostsandbenefitsand,iftheyproceed,alsobeproactiveincommunicatingthebenefitstotheircommunities(suchasjobcreationbeyondjustthoseatthedatacentersthemselves).

Exhibit4

Demandforpowerfordatacentersisexpectedtorisesignificantlyintheunitedstates.

usdatacenterelectricitydemand,mediumscenario

Energyconsumption,terawatt-hours

shareoftotalUspowerdemand,%

source:GlobalEnergyperspective2023,Mckinsey,october18,2023;Mckinseyanalysis

Mckinsey&company

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges9

Eachstatewillneedtobalancetheeconomicbenefitsagainsttheirspecificcosts.

Understandingwheretheeconomicbenefitsreachthediminishingpointofmarginalreturnsisbothananalyticalandstrategicexercise.Ohiohasreliedonforwardplanningandthoughtfulpublic–privatepartnershipstotrytonavigatethesetrade-offs,withsomesuccess.Overmorethanadecade,Ohiohasincreaseditsdatacentercapacitybyfourtimes,andAmazonWeb

Serviceshasrecentlyannounceda$1billionadditiontoanearlierestimated$10billionexpansionofdatacenterinvestmentinOhio.15

Thegovernment,economic-developmentagencies,utilities,andmajortechfirmshavealignedonastrongincentiveprogram,infrastructureinvestments,workforcetraining,andrenewable-energyprograms.Ohio,forinstance,hasofferedpartialorfullsalestaxexemptionsfor

companiesmakingsignificantinvestmentsindatacenters(thoughthesehaveledtopublicopposition).Somelocalgovernmentsinthestatehavealsoprovidedlong-termpropertytaxabatements.16

Toprovideinfrastructuresupport,AmericanElectricPower(AEP),whichservescentralOhio,

hasinitiatedabroadtransmissionbuild-outandspecial-ratestructuresfordatacenters.AEP’s$2.82billionstrategicpartnershipplanstofundthousandsofmilesofnewtransmissionlines

acrossOhioandneighboringstates.17InNovember2024,AEPannouncedplanstodeployuptoonegigawattofBloomEnergysolid-oxidefuelcellsatdatacentersites—adealintendedto

supplyimmediatebackuppowerwhilethegridisexpanded.18

Tostrengthenthelocalworkforce’sskills,Ohiohaspartneredwithprivateorganizationsto

establishtraininginitiativessuchastheSTAR(SkilledTradesandReadiness)Programanddata-center-techniciancertificationprogramsthatareofferedbyhyperscalers.19

Tensetsofquestionsforawinningdatacenterstrategy

Stateswillneedtoaddressnumerousconsiderationsandplansineitherbuildingorexpandingtheirdatacenterefforts.Answeringthefollowingquestionscanhelpclarifytheirpathforward:

—Industrytrends.Whatwillthenextfivetotenyearsofdatacentergrowthlooklike?Whichplayersareinvesting,andwhattechnologiesarespurringthisinvestment?Howwillthe

needsofdatacentersinthefutureevolveforconstruction,maintenance,andrefurbishment?

—Strategicfit.Howdodatacentersalignwiththestate’sbroadereconomicgoals,suchasruraldevelopment,establishingasemiconductorcorridor,orrealizingatechhubvision?

—Partnershipmodels.Whataretherightincentives,coinvestmentmechanisms,and

governancestructurestoenablesuccess?Howshouldtheinvestmentpartnershipbe

framedtoachievethestate’sstrategiceconomicgoals,suchasruraldevelopmentandthe

15“Ohiopowersdatacenters,”JobsOhio,accessedJuly17,2025;RobertHiggs,“AWStoinvest$10BtoexpandOhiodatacenterinfrastructure,”GovernmentTechnology,December17,2024;GeorgiaButler,“AWSgetsgo-aheadfordatacentercampusinMarysville,Ohio,”DataCentreDynamics,March12,2025.

16ZachSchiller,“IndefensibletaxbreaksfordatacenterswillcostOhio,”PolicyMattersOhio,January7,2025.

17“AEPsecuresminorityequityinterestinvestmentinOhioandIndiana&Michigantransmissioncompanies,”AmericanElectricPowerpressrelease,January9,2025.

18“AEPleveragingfuelcelltechnologytopowerdatacentergrowth,”AmericanElectricPowerpressrelease,November14,2024.

19“Thedigitaleconomyneedsaskilledanddiverseworkforce,”Google,accessedJuly17,2025;“Datacentertechniciancertificate,”ColumbusStateCommunityCollege,accessedJuly17,2025.

Thedatacenterbalance:HowUSstatescannavigatetheopportunitiesandchallenges10

entrepreneurialgrowthofsmallandmediumbusinesses?

—Locationstrategy.Wherearethereshovel-readyorpotentialdatacenterzoneswith

adequateinfrastructureandcommunityalignment?Howdoexistingdatacentersites

influencethesepotentialfuturelocationssuchthatthestatecanoptimizeresourceuse,enhancecommunitysupport,andensureequitabledevelopmentindifferentpartsofthestate,ultimatelyleadingtomoresustainableandsuccessfulbuild-outs?

—Responsiblestewardshipoflocalresources.Whatarethethresholdsofpower,water,andlandcapacitythatcansustainablysupportdatacentergrowth?Howcloseisthestatetoreachingthesethresholds?

—Cross-sectoralopportunities.Whatotheropportunitiesmightexistforrelatedindustrygrowth,suchaspower,sustainableresourcemanagement,coolingequipment,and

telecommunications?

—Integratedeconomicmodel.Whathastheeconomicmodelfordatacentergrowthlookedlikesofar?Whatarethe(further)projectedupsides(suchasjobs,taxes,andgrowth)andrisks(forexample,utilitycostsandenvironmentalimpact)?Arethetaxbreaksoffsetting

gainstoanextentwherefurtherinvestmentindatacentersisnolong