蓄力新高16：如何布局年底政策窗口期

内容目录回顾与观点 3核心图表跟踪 6风险提示 11图表目录图1： 美国景气：制造业消信心较弱 6图2： 美国就业：担忧增加 6图3： 近期A股、港、美股现，整体趋同 6图4： 市场情绪：整体成交缩暂歇，结构轮动加速 7图5： 资金-基金：之前业绩好，年末可能减仓息 7图6： 资金-杠杆资金：仍有入但慢于之前，关资流入进一步暂缓 8图7： 风格-红利：红利回到2023年初水平，当前哑铃更占优 8图8： 年底日历效应分析-行：11月初上，经济工会议后趋弱 8图9： 年底日历效应分析-时：11月初小盘/TMT，济工作会议前红利/定会议后大盘/红利/金融 图10： 年底日历效应分析-行：11月初计机/电子经济工作会议前银行/食，会议后银行/家电/周期 图11： 年底日历效应分析-板：红利/大盘，会前1月会后1月均占优稳定前占优；银行会后占优 回顾与观点回顾：2025年3月前瞻提示向大金融+消费切换，对等关税后提示最大利空落地，恐慌后迎反弹窗口；5月继续强调红5月积极可为，AH市场均有不错表现。半年度策略《蓄力新高》提示长期机会，至今上证指数涨超15%至3900点以上。四季度策略《三擎拱牛市》强调紧贴三条主线：老经济周期+新经济科技&服务消费。PM)ADP+A++A美股短期视角：股和AA强势放量创新高，年内暂歇+观望后续政策，预计可能偏震荡，来年再启动。长期支撑+市场信心下，大幅调整可能较低。配置方向：行情继续积极应对，结构上重视筹码与盈利预期的变化，围绕景气预期向好的性价比方向配置。筹码拥挤且预期分歧加大的成长方向，等待景气进一步验证。（（（。聚：（AI&电3PCB等。资金分析：基金年底可能暂歇，已有减仓趋势；杠杆资金新增催化如果不足，大幅流入动能有限；美股趋弱下，外资新增流入预计有限；汇金等更多在于托底。综合看，主力资金当前仍看杠杆资金，之后可能看险资和汇金托底资金，对应红利预计更占优。基金：历史经验：1-10（不03/001杠杆资金：融资余额流入时小盘占优；当前融资资金仍在流入但动能已较之前减弱，叠加融资市值占比持续创新高，后续提示关注融资余额流入放缓。红利：景气弱复苏下，红利和TMT相互摆动；当前TMT止盈动力下，红利阶段占优。叠加红利相对表现已回到2023年初水平，胜率赔率均向好。年底如果真的暂歇震荡如何配置？日历效应看，银行红利是观望思路首选。行情走势：11月初行情大多向上，到经济工作会议后（后简称会议）行情可能调整。市值视角：11月初小盘占优，会议前大盘相对占优，会议后大盘显著占优。风格视角：11月初成长占优，会议前红利低波占优，会议后红利/质量占优。板块+行业视角：11月初TMT对应策略：10/0/核心图表跟踪图1：美国景气：制造业消信心较弱 图2：美国就业：担忧增加， ，图3：近期A股、港股、美股表现，整体趋同102

恒生指数 标普500

科创创业50 恒生科技 纳斯达克100101100

10599 1009897 959690959410-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 ，；取2025/10/29为100来标准化

8510-09 10-16 10-23 10-30 11-06图4：市场情绪：整体成交缩量暂歇，结构轮动加速万得全A 成交额60日分位(右)

主线明确行业轮动速度 行业分化程度主线明确重新轮动主线明确6500

100%100%60005500500045004000350023-01 23-07 24-01 24-07 25-01 25-07，

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%24-07 24-10 25-01

25-04 25-07

25-10图5：资金-基金：之前业绩够好，年末可能减仓休息全A(左) 3个月相关性 (比例仓位-65%)/20%

全A(左) 3个月相关性 (比例仓位-65%)/20%30002900

100%650080%

100%80%28002700260025002400

60%40%20%0%

600055005000

60%40%20%0%-20%2300

-40%4500

-40%22002100

4000

-60%-80%200012-09 12-12 13-03 13-06 13-09 13-12 14-03全A(左) 3个月相关性 (比例仓位

-100%350020-01 20-07 21-01全A(左) 3个月相关性 (比例仓位

-100%6500

100%6500

100%6300610059005700

80%60%40%20%

60005500

80%60%40%20%5500 0%5000 0%5300

-20%

-20%510049004700

-40%-60%4000-80%

-40%-60%-80%450020-10 21-01 21-04 21-07 21-10 22-01，

-100%350024-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 25-07 25-10

-100%图6：资金-杠杆资金：仍有流入但慢于之前，关注资金流入进一步暂缓融资资金-10日净流入(亿元,右) 国证2000/全A1.801.751.701.651.601.551.501.451.401.351.30，图7：风格-红利：红利回到2023年初水平，当前哑铃中更占优140

相对表现:TMT(左) 拥挤度分位数:TMT

100%200

相对表现:红利低波(左) 拥挤度分位数:红利低波

100%135130125120

80%70%

190180170

90%80%70%60%115110105

50%40%

160150

50%40%30%10095

20%10%

130

20%10%90 23-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-10，

120 0%23-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0424-0724-1025-0125-0425-0725-10图8：年底日历效应分析-行情：11月初上涨，经济工作会议后趋弱全A表现2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025胜率均值-去极值前10月11月初会前会后1月1月后半月-1.9%-11.9%-3.2%4.3%25.7%23.8%-11.5%8.4%-26.2%25.6%17.2%4.8%-23.0%-3.5%10.7%26.4%53.3%3.4%0.0%3.0%-3.4%-1.9%-0.2%11.6%3.5%-0.1%5.2%-0.2%3.5%0.2%8.2%1.3%5.7%0.6%66.7%2.0%.8%5.5%5.7%17.3%2.7%-4.2%-3.3%-6.5%1.0%0.8%4.9%0.4%-1.6%-0.1%53.3%0.2%-1.9%-0.7%9.4%-7.4%4.6%-21.3%-1.8%3.3%3.6%8.2%4.8%-3.4%1.2%-5.1%-11.3%46.7%-0.3%-1.3%1.9%1.9%4.1%0.9%-10.1%0.7%-1.2%-2.1%-3.1%-2.1%-7.0%3.1%-9.1%3.6%46.7%-0.8%会前1月+后1月-5.8%-13.4%15.5%-2.1%22.7%-19.2%-5.9%-0.1%-3.1%9.3%5.7%1.3%1.6%-6.7%-11.4%40.0%-1.6%会后-1月底-1.3%1.9%1.9%4.1%0.9%-10.1%0.7%-1.2%-2.1%-3.1%-2.1%-7.0%3.1%-9.1%3.6%46.7%-0.8%，图9：年底日历效应分析-时段：11月初小盘/TMT，经济工作会议前红利/稳定，会议后大盘/红利/金融11月初表现201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024胜率超额均值表现全A5.6%0.9%-2.6%-3.0%1.8%11.6%3.4%-0.7%4.7%-0.3%3.5%0.4%8.9%1.3%7.0%73.3%2.8%超额-按市值上证50沪深300中证1000国证2000-2.7%-1.6%1.1%-0.8%0.1%-4.9%-0.7%5.9%-4.9%0.7%-0.5%-2.9%3.6%-1.2%-2.4%33.3%-0.7%-1.8%-0.9%-0.1%-0.6%0.5%-4.8%-0.6%3.6%-2.7%0.7%0.7%-1.7%1.3%-0.9%-0.8%33.3%-0.5%1.8%1.2%-2.1%0.7%-1.2%2.1%-0.2%-4.0%4.6%-1.0%-0.9%1.6%-1.6%0.7%0.6%53.3%0.2%1.6%2.2%-2.0%1.3%-0.8%2.8%0.8%-4.0%4.7%-1.4%-1.1%2.5%-0.9%1.1%0.4%60.0%0.5%超额-按风格中证红利质量成长-0.5%-0.2%0.5%-0.5%1.0%-3.0%-1.3%2.2%-2.0%-0.2%5.9%-1.0%-0.2%-1.7%-4.5%26.7%-0.4%-1.0%-0.4%-0.7%-0.3%0.2%-5.1%-2.5%2.0%-2.0%0.0%5.5%-2.3%-2.3%-1.9%-4.7%20.0%-1.0%-2.7%-0.8%0.4%0.5%-1.4%0.4%-3.0%4.0%-1.4%1.7%-2.5%-3.7%1.4%0.4%-2.9%46.7%-0.7%0.8%3.6%-2.1%1.1%-1.7%1.4%-2.5%-1.2%1.5%0.4%-3.5%1.3%-1.6%0.6%3.5%60.0%0.1%1.1%2.1%-1.7%1.0%-1.3%3.1%-1.0%-1.7%3.5%-0.2%-2.1%2.1%-2.6%1.5%2.4%53.3%0.4%金融-4.0%-2.0%0.8%-1.5%1.2%-0.2%-0.4%3.6%-3.3%0.4%0.0%-2.2%3.0%-1.3%-0.9%40.0%-0.4%-0.4%0.7%-0.6%4.0%-5.2%1.2%-2.5%-1.7%-1.2%0.9%-3.6%-3.0%-1.6%-4.2%26.7%-1.2%板块周期0.3%0.1%-1.6%0.5%0.1%0.1%1.0%-1.9%-0.6%-0.4%4.9%-1.2%0.9%-1.3%-1.7%53.3%-0.1%超额消费2.6%0.9%-2.0%0.4%-1.4%-3.1%-1.5%1.2%0.9%0.4%-0.9%-1.1%3.0%-0.2%-0.9%46.7%-0.1%TMT0.6%3.2%-3.3%0.9%-1.5%2.6%-1.1%-0.1%3.7%0.3%-1.2%4.2%-2.2%2.7%2.5%60.0%0.8%高端制造-1.0%1.1%-1.1%1.1%-0.8%-0.6%0.0%-2.7%2.8%-0.4%-0.8%2.0%-3.3%0.6%1.0%46.7%-0.1%会前一月表现201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024胜率超额均值表现全A-9.0%-11.0%4.7% 6.9%15.0%2.7%-4.1%-2.7%-6.1%1.1% 0.8% 4.6%-0.2%-1.6%-1.2%46.7%0.0%超额-按市值上证50沪深300中证1000国证2000-1.2%3.0%5.8%-3.3%14.8%-1.4%3.8%0.7%0.3%-2.0%3.0%0.6%4.3%-2.9%-0.6%60.0%1.7%-0.9%-0.1%2.7%-1.7%9.0%-0.3%1.7%0.5%0.2%-1.4%1.4%-0.3%2.5%-2.8%-1.2%46.7%0.6%2.9%-5.6%-4.7%1.4%-11.6%-0.2%-2.8%-0.5%0.0% 1.2%-2.4%0.9%-3.2%1.5%-0.1%33.3%-1.5%4.3%-4.7%-4.6%1.8%-12.9%2.1%-1.7%-0.3%-0.2%0.9%-3.4%1.6%-2.7%2.4%2.5%46.7%-1.0%超额-按风格质量成长-0.8%0.9%3.4%-3.1%1.5%0.4%2.6%-0.3%4.2%0.6%-3.6%-0.9%2.7%3.7%4.2%66.7%1.0%3.2%1.1%1.9%1.2%-0.2%4.1%-0.7%4.5%0.8%-4.6%0.8%2.8%3.0%4.3%80.0%1.7%-0.1%-0.9%0.5%-4.4%3.6%-0.2%3.3%1.7%2.1%-2.9%7.2%0.1%-2.4%-3.9%-0.7%46.7%0.2%12.0%-4.2%-5.1%-1.4%-10.2%-1.7%-4.2%-0.1%-0.2%1.8%3.8%-2.9%-2.2%-3.4%-2.9%20.0%-1.4%3.0%-4.8%-4.2%1.0%-7.7%-1.8%-3.4%-1.1%-0.8%2.8%0.2%-1.6%-4.3%-0.1%-2.4%26.7%-1.7%板块超额周期消费高端制造-1.4%3.0%8.7%-1.9%20.3%2.9%1.3%-0.1%-1.2%-1.9%-0.7%0.0%4.6%-1.6%0.4%46.7%2.2%0.9%0.7%2.3%-0.3%4.3%-6.5%2.0%-1.1%4.3%-0.1%-3.3%0.2%3.5%2.4%2.9%66.7%0.8%-0.5%-5.4%-1.5%0.7%-5.6%-0.9%-0.2%0.2%0.7%2.7%-1.9%0.2%-1.5%0.5%1.1%46.7%-0.8%3.7%-1.6%-6.9%0.0%-7.2%3.1%1.4%1.3%0.4%-3.8%2.6%2.2%5.9%-0.2%2.9%60.0%0.2%9.1%-4.7%-5.4%0.9%-10.3%-0.7%-3.9%-1.8%-0.3%5.3%-3.8%0.0%-3.8%2.6%-2.1%33.3%-1.3%1.7%-5.0%-1.3%1.9%-8.5%-4.2%-0.6%-1.1%1.9%2.0%2.7%-3.8%-4.9%-2.5%-1.6%33.3%-1.6%会后一月表现201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024胜率超额均值表现全A-1.9%-0.7%9.4%-7.4%4.6%-21.3%-1.8%3.3% 3.6% 8.2% 4.8%-3.4%1.2%-5.1%-11.3%46.7%-1.2%超额-按市值中证1000国证20003.7%0.5%-0.7%12.5%4.9%2.0%5.0%1.2%-3.8%4.0%-0.5%2.5%2.3%6.1%80.0%2.7%0.5%0.8%-1.4%6.8%3.4%1.0%3.1%1.0%-1.2%4.3%-1.2%1.8%1.3%4.0%80.0%1.7%-2.8%-8.3%5.2%3.6%-9.8%-0.9%-1.4%-4.7%-1.2%2.1%-5.5%0.0%-1.2%-2.5%-3.2%26.7%-2.0%-2.6%-8.5%4.9%3.2%-9.7%0.5%-0.6%-4.4%-0.6%1.8%-8.6%3.4%-1.9%-1.9%-4.0%33.3%-1.9%超额-按风格中证红利质量成长2.4%0.9%1.4%-1.5%3.9%3.8%1.9%4.6%0.4%-2.5%-7.2%6.9%-2.5%4.0%5.0%73.3%1.4%-0.4%-1.0%0.4%-0.9%6.4%5.4%1.7%5.0%-0.4%-3.3%-7.7%9.9%-2.4%5.7%6.9%53.3%1.7%-0.7%0.5%2.0%1.1%8.7%1.6%0.9%2.3%4.2%-3.0%7.6%-3.0%1.1%2.3%3.5%80.0%1.9%-5.7%-11.2%9.2%14.1%-6.8%-0.8%-3.1%-6.3%-3.7%2.4%6.3%-7.3%3.8%-1.5%-2.5%33.3%-0.9%-3.3%-5.9%7.7%3.3%-7.8%-2.7%-1.3%-5.1%-0.3%3.0%2.5%-5.5%-0.1%-2.6%-1.2%26.7%-1.3%板块超额周期消费高端制造2.2%2.5%1.9%-1.1%11.5%3.2%0.4%7.2%0.4%-2.2%-2.1%3.1%1.3%0.9%2.4%80.0%2.1%0.6%-0.8%-3.7%-3.6%6.1%1.3%2.6%-1.2%-1.7%-4.3%-6.2%9.9%-2.5%3.3%2.6%46.7%0.1%0.8%-2.7%1.9%-1.4%-3.0%0.2%0.7%-1.5%-1.8%0.7%-0.1%1.9%-1.3%2.8%0.9%53.3%-0.1%-4.2%-6.3%2.3%1.6%-4.3%-0.3%-0.3%0.0%2.4%-1.0%-0.4%0.1%1.2%0.5%-1.1%40.0%-0.7%-4.0%-6.0%6.5%6.1%-8.4%-1.5%-2.4%-6.2%-0.7%3.1%0.5%-0.4%-0.6%-6.6%-0.4%26.7%-1.4%-1.3%-5.7%6.2%0.8%-5.8%0.9%0.8%-5.1%0.0% 2.6%3.5%-5.0%0.4%1.8%-0.5%53.3%-0.4%，图10：年底日历效应分析-11///家电/11月初行业胜率超额均值会前一月行业胜率超额均值会后1月行业胜率超额均值1计算机60%1.2%1食饮67%2.1%1银行93%3.9%2电子67%1.1%2银行67%2.1%2家电87%2.7%3非银40%0.7%3地产53%1.6%3石油67%2.1%4有色47%0.6%4社服53%1.5%4煤炭67%2.1%5机械67%0.5%5建材67%1.2%5有色60%0.7%6传媒53%0.4%6家电60%1.2%6电新60%0.7%7通信40%0.4%7建筑60%1.1%7非银53%0.3%8轻工60%0.4%8交运60%0.7%8食饮67%0.2%9汽车47%0.4%9商贸40%0.7%9建材33%0.1%10食饮60%0.3%10传媒67%0.5%10机械47%0.1%，图11：年底日历效应分析-板块：红利/大盘，会前1月到会后1上证50超额2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025胜率均值-去极值前10月-12.4%2.5%1.4%-16.5%-20.5%-34.2%4.4%13.7%11.9%3.3%-10.1%-15.0%-6.9%-5.0%2.5%-14.2%46.7%-4.7%11月初-2.7%-1.6%1.1%-1.6%3.4%-4.9%-0.8%5.4%-5.2%0.8%-0.3%-3.1%3.9%-1.2%-2.7%0.3%33.3%-0.8%会前1月-1.1%2.9%5.8%-2.3%10.9%-1.4%3.8%1.2%0.6%-2.1%2.8%0.9%4.1%-2.9%-0.3%60.0%1.0%会后1月0.8%3.7%0.5%-0.7%12.5%4.9%2.0%5.0%1.2%-3.8%4.0%-0.5%2.5%2.3%6.1%80.0%2.4%1月后半月-0.5%1.6%3.0%-5.2%-7.3%4.6%1.7%1.2%4.8%-1.3%-0.7%1.8%-2.3%9.7%-2.7%53.3%0.6%会前1月+后1月-0.3%6.2%7.0%-2.8%27.4%3.8%5.8%6.1%1.7%-6.0%7.1%0.3%6.7%-0.5%5.8%73.3%3.9%会后-1月底-0.5%1.6%3.0%-5.2%-7.3%4.6%1.7%1.2%4.8%-1.3%-0.7%1.8%-2.3%9.7%-2.7%53.3%0.6%红利低波超额2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025胜率均值-去极值前10月11.6%0.8%-3.8%4.1%-10.4%-16.8%7.2%12.2%5.3%-16.3%-22.1%-0.4%15.1%10.6%0.7%-24.4%60.0%0.8%11月初-1.2%-0.3%-0.2%-1.1%1.5%-5.1%-2.5%1.9%-2.4%-0.1%6.0%-2.3%-1.9%-1.9%-4.4%1.8%20.0%-1.1%会前1月3.6%3.0%0.5%2.7%-0.3%-0.2%4.1%-0.6%4.8%0.9%-5.0%0.9%2.5%3.0%4.1%73.3%1.9%会后1月-0.4%-1.0%0.4%-0.9%6.4%5.4%1.7%5.0%-0.4%-3.3%-7.7%9.9%-2.4%5.7%6.9%53.3%1.8%1月后半月0.3%-0.1%1.3%-1.2%-4.3%3.9%1.6%1.2%3.6%-2.5%-1.2%2.6%-1.3%11.8%-1.4%53.3%0.5%会前1月+后1月3.2%2.1%1.0%1.5%7.2%5.4%5.7%4.2%4.6%-2.4%-12.7%11.3%0.1%8.6%10.7%86.7%4.0%会后-1月底0.3%-0.1%1.3%-1.2%-4.3%3.9%1.6%1.2%3.6%-2.5%-1.2%2.6%-1.3%11.8%-1.4%53.3%0.5%中证红利超额2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025胜率均值-去极值前10月-7.0%-1.7%-3.1%-11.7%-7.3%-7.3%3.6%9.6%6.3%-15.6%-17.3%3.3%10.5%5.0%-3.7%-25.6%40.0%-2.1%11月初-1.0%0.0%0.6%-1.7%1.4%-3.0%-1.4%2.0%-2.2%-0.1%6.3%-0.8%0.2%-1.7%-3.8%1.6%33.3%-0.6%会前1月-0.3%0.7%3.2%-1.8%1.0%0.4%2.8%-0.2%4.3%0.4%-4.0%-1.1%2.4%3.7%3.6%66.7%1.2%会后1月2.4%0.9%1.4%-1.5%3.9%3.8%1.9%4.6%0.4%-2.5%-7.2%6.9%-2.5%4.0%5.0%73.3%1.7%1月后半月-0.4%0.8%4.0%-0.7%-2.3%2.7%1.7%1.5%2.5%-1.1%-1.7%1.6%-1.5%10.3%-0.9%53.3%0.6%会前1月+后1月2.0%1.5%5.1%-3.3%5.7%4.2%4.6%4.2%4.9%-2.1%-11.1%6.0%-0.1%7.6%8.4%73.3%3.3%会后-1月底-0.4%0.8%4.0%-0.7%-2.3%2.7%1.7%1.5%2.5%-1.1%-1.7%1.6%-1.5%10.3%-0.9%53.3%0.6%稳定超额2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025胜率均值-去极值前10月-5.5%0.5%0.4%-4.1%7.7%-8.9%-2.9%-2.3%5.5%-19.4%-23.5%4.6%13.6%6.2%4.0%-22.6%53.3%-0.2%11月初-1.4%-0.4%1.0%-1.3%3.1%-5.2%1.2%-3.0%-1.8%-1.1%1.3%-3.9%-2.3%-1.6%-4.2%1.2%26.7%-1.3%会前1月1.0%0.6%1.9%0.4%5.