银行行业A股上市银行25Q3季报综述:其他非息略有扰动息差企稳支撑核心营收_第1页
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目录TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u一、核营收现向大行利增速正 4二、贷增速有下力,存增长弱 9三、净差边企稳债成本续改善 13四、资质量本稳信用成重回行区间 15五、资充足有所,险资续增银行 17六、投建议 19七、风提示 20图表目录图1:截至25Q3,42家上银行整体营收增速略有下滑,利润增速边际改善 4图2:截至25Q3,上市银行利息收入增速持续改善 5图3:截至25Q3,上市银行润增速回升 5图4:利息净收入和手续费净收入延续回升,其他非息收入波动是主要拖累 5图5:国有行业绩同比增速:营收增速持平,利润改善明显 6图6:25Q3国债发行下滑,久期仍然拉长 6图7:截至25Q3,上市银行AC户兑现力度较上半年减弱 6图8:截至25Q3,股份行业同比增速小幅回落 7图9:城商行保持良好的成长性,25Q3业绩增速绝对水优势依旧明显 7图10:农商行业绩有所下滑受其他非息收入拖累明显 8图11:25Q3上市银行生息产及其细分类别同比增速及变动情况:贷款增速有所回落,金融投资持续作为扩表核心驱动力 图12:国股行AC资产占比升,城农商行进一步增配OCI 10图13:25Q3上市银行贷款构,大行票贴冲量,城商行仍以对公贷款为主 10图14:上市银行贷款总额同增速走势,各子板块贷款增速环比均有小幅下滑 图15:截至25Q3存款同比速,仅农商行存款增速边际改善 图16:25Q3上市银行计息债及其细分类别同比增速及变动情况:国股行计息负债增速下滑,城农商行边际提升 图17:上市银行净息差、生资产收益率和计息负债成本率(测算) 13图18:上市银行净息差及变情况,息差基本持平于25H1 14图19:25Q3上市银行不良款余额、不良贷款率、关注率及变动情况,不良率保持平稳 15图20:截至25Q3,上市银信用成本重回下行区间 16图21:截至25Q3,上市银减值计提增速拐头向下 16图22:25Q3上市银行测算用成本率、拨贷比、拨备覆盖率及变动情况 16图23:25Q3上市银行各级本充足率及变动情况,资本充足率有所回落 17图24:上市银行风险加权资同比增速走势,25Q3风险权资产增速环比+0.7pct 18图25:7月以来,险资增持H股银行梳理(截至2025年10月31日) 18图26:三季度上市银行前十股东变化梳理:险资再度增持银行,多数地方国资增持本地优质城农商行 一、核心营收表现向好,大行利润增速回正利息净收入增速持续改善,利润增速延续回升。图1:截至25Q3,42家上市银行整体营收增速略有下滑,利润增速边际改善图2:截至25Q3,上市银行利息收入增速持续改善 图3:截至25Q3,上市银行润增速回升注:累计同比增速,后同图4:利息净收入和手续费净收入延续回升,其他非息收入波动是主要拖累工商银行工商银行上市银行总计国有行-0.7%-3.0%-2.4%-3.0%-2.1%1.5%1.7%-0.6%3.9%-2.1%2.4%-5.1%-8.2%-1.6%-3.2%1.8%19.6%0.5%11.8%28.5%10.0%8.2%-2.9%15.2%-12.3%5.8%12.0%8.9%17.3%-0.6%0.2%0.5%2.2%0.6%0.3%0.2%1.0%3.5%-0.1%1.1%0.5%1.1%2.0%-0.7%0.6%0.5%-1.2%0.7%6.4%0.6%0.6%-1.2%3.0%3.0%4.8%-0.2%6.2%4.0%0.6%5.3%13.3%8.1%11.5%0.2%0.9%3.8%-1.4%5.7%0.7%2.2%-0.1%8.3%-22.4%16.9%20.0%-6.9%29.3%8.5%12.6%-35.2%9.3%-27.6%-8.6%-7.1%-3.5%0.5%-1.4%-11.1%0.6%16.0%-16.7%-1.2%2.5%364.7%41.5%-4.6%76.6%1.2%1.3%3.3%-1.1%-0.1%2.7%2.8%1.2%-0.4%2.4%0.3%3.0%1.8%5.8%-4.8%-3.5%14.8%-1.0%25.3%1.8%1.9%10.0%-16.1.0%-14.3%4.8%9.8%-8.5%-15.02.3%0.5%5.5%-3.5%2.9%0.8%-273.0%13.7%19.8%-63.4%27.6%31.0%31.7%22.2%27.5%4.1%-11.4%-9.3%-2.7%-17.0%36.6%-32.5%-24.1%-29.6%-11.8%-12.8%-24.1%14.7%-9.0%-16.2%-24.7%-13.0%16.8%5.8%-20.7%-4.0%-15.5%-14.6%-38.1%-15.9%-18.1%-3.2%-22.4%3.9%-23.0%20.0%57.5%11.5%20.1%8.8%8.6%-12.4%2.0%1.5%-2.3%-14.8%-5.0%-15.--4.8%-16.7%-1.1%-12.0%-4.0%2.6%-9.5%-9.3%-13.-9.4%5.2%-13.6%6.9%-5.1%2.1%2.4%-17.3%1.5%-8.4%4.1%0.9%0.4%0.5%1.6%-0.3%-3.6%2.1%-2-10.9%-13.9%-57.7%-30.5%26.6%-4.7%-1.5%-13.7.7%-3.7%-48.4%-50.7%-18.7%-26.2%-36.8%-22.8%-29.2%-15.1%-44.6%-59.0%-24.7%-36.1%-58.0%110.3%-42.6%-58.4%-44.4%-57.5%-27.9%-58.9%-41.7%194.4%-66.2%-71.0%116.2%128.3%-24.5%-68.1%-34.2%-38.0%155.2%-40.0%-72.0%-34.1%-71.4%-36.7%-71.7%-31.3%-41.6%6.1%-0.6%-2.0%-0.9%10.3%0.1%2.7%0.7%0.5%0.9%1.5%0.7%162.7%4.6%5.9%1.3%8.8%3.9%-111.4%1.5%1.2%1.9%4.7%2.9%-16.4%5.4%23.9%-12.1%-11.7%-1.6%-15.3%-5.4%-4.9%-6.8%-8.4%-7.4%-68.2%-35.2%-31.4%-49.1%-46.6%-37.9%-34.6%-24.7%3%%0.8%-36.9%8.6%3%22.7%4%22.4%1%9.8%-24.6%其他综合收益余额较25H1变动幅度较25H1变动净其他非息收入较25H1变动净手续费收入较25H1变动净利息收入公司简称分板块来看,国有行业绩表现突出,营收增速持平,利润增速回正,主要得益于非息收入韧性十足+信用成本下行。25Q3,国有行营收、PPOP1.9%/1.4%/1.2%,营收增速环比持平,在各子板块中表现最佳,归母净利润增速回正,环比提升1.3pct,是利润增速42拆分来看,利息净收入和手续费净收入增速分别环比+0.5pct/+1.2pct。其他非息收入表现板块间最为突出,维持23.9%的同比增速(其他板块均同比下滑),受益于金融投资结构的差异,一是TPLAC占比较高,兑现空间可观。Q3ACQ2Q3IRRBB指标监管压力从而卖债兑现浮盈。个股层面,农行、交行营收增速改善最为明显,各类收入增速均有提升;工行、建行、中行利润增速改善幅度较大,主要是信用成本下行的正向贡献;农行归母净利润增速继续领跑六大行。图5:国有行业绩同比增速:营收增速持平,利润改善明显 图6:25Q3国债发行下滑,久期仍然拉长注:左轴单位为亿元,右轴为年,数据截至2025-9-30图7:截至25Q3,上市银行AC户兑现力度较上半年减弱股份行业绩绝对增速偏弱。截至25Q3,股份行营收、PPOP和归母净利润增速分别为-2.6%/-2.9%/-0.2%,环比-0.3pct/-0.3pct/-0.4pct,业绩增速仍为各子板块最低水平。结构上,利息净收入和中收均边际改善,增速环比+0.9pct/+1.9pct,其他非息收入同比-12.1%,增速环比-6.8pct。个股层面,招行、兴业、平安营收均有改善,得益于利息净收入和中收增速环比提升;华夏银行利润增速改善较为显著。图8:截至25Q3,股份行业绩同比增速小幅回落营业收入 拨备前利润 归母净利润15%10%5%0%-5%-10%2021-12 2022-09 2023-06 2024-03 2024-12 2025-09城商行依旧保持良好成长,业绩绝对增速领先,核心营收改善幅度最大。截至25Q3,城商行营收、PPOP25H1末-0.7pct、-0.9pct、-0.1pct4.7%5.6%6.7%,增速领先各子板块。结构上,利息净收入、中收增速分别环比+1.5pct、+4.7pct,绝对增速和改善幅度均为子板块之最,核心营收表现亮眼。个股层面,江浙、重庆及山东区域城商行表现亮眼,青岛、齐鲁、杭州归母净利润增速均处于15%(AC置带来的投资收益)增速改善同样明显。图9:城商行保持良好的成长性,25Q3业绩增速绝对水平优势依旧明显农商行业绩略有下滑,受其他非息收入拖累,净利息收入和中收增速均有回升。截至25Q3,农商行营收、PPOP和归母净利润增速分别为-0.03%/0.4%/3.6%,环比-1.0pct/-0.8pct/-0.8pct。其中利息净收入增速环比+0.7pct,息差坚挺依旧是核心支撑;手续费净收入增速环比+2.9pct,来自基数的扰动基本弱化;其他非息收入增速环比-7.4pct,应为行业共性原因,债市利率震荡上行导致的公允价值变动亏损。个股层面,常熟、江阴归母净利润保持双位数增长,多数农商行利息净收入均有改善,江阴、瑞丰净息差逆势抬升,港行、常熟息差环比仅小幅-1bp。图10:农商行业绩有所下滑,受其他非息收入拖累明显二、贷款增速仍有下行压力,存款增长偏弱生息资产增速环比回落,贷款增速仍有下行压力,金融投资仍是扩表的核心拉动因素。截至25Q3,上市银行生息资产增速环比-0.4pct9.3%-0.3pct7.7%,尽管有各类贴息政策落地,但整体信贷环境仍面临有效需求不足、地方政府化债以及部分行业反内卷深入推进的约束,贷款增长表现偏弱。政府部门作为宏观加杠杆主力的背景下,金融投资依旧是银0.9pct15.8%ACOCITPL资产占比均有下滑。图11:25Q3上市银行生息资产及其细分类别同比增速及变动情况:贷款增速有所回落,金融投资持续作为扩表核心驱动力工商银行工商银行上市银行总计国有行股份行城商行农商行9.6%10.8%10.3%10.3%10.9%6.4%8.4%3.5%3.7%6.4%2.1%5.3%%-2.7%-1.0%2%-0.8%-1.4%-0.6%-1.2%2.4%22.1%26.3%2.3%17.2%16.2%13.8%13.2%10.8%23.7%3.4%12.7%15.1%14.2%16.6%10.2%23.1%9.7%9.0%5.0%6.4%10.4%5.3%9.4%2.1%7.6%11.3%9.5%%%0%-0.9%0.0%%0.6%-0.8%5.2%0.7%0.1%8.4%7.5%9.1%8.9%10.0%7.5%5.6%4.3%5.7%2.7%-0.1%3.3%0%7%3.8%9.3%17.9%2.0%17.9%14.1%12.7%17.4%11.7%20.4%0.5%6.0%13.3%11.6%15.2%8.0%37.1%13.8%8.8%3.2%2.0%7.1%2.5%9.6%7.5%8.7%8.6%6.8%0.0%-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%-0.1%-1.4%0.1%0.2%-0.3%-1.0%-1.2%-1.6%1.2%1.4%-0.4%-1.0%-0.4%1.1%-0.8%-0.8%0.7%-0.6%-1.3%0.9%-0.7%-2.9%-0.2%-0.2%1.5%1%1.3%10.2%0.5%-2.0%-2.4%1.9%-0.8%-0.2%-0.1%%23.9%19.0%15.6%19.6%12.1%7.7%21.2%1.8%8.4%11.5%3.5%9.3%2.6%12.3%2.7%33.5%37.5%1.5%17.9%21.5%13.1%26.2%7.1%37.4%7.8%17.7%26.0%17.1%16.6%19.9%0.6%15.3%6.3%5.2%7.1%12.7%13.4%10.1%-8.2%4.2%15.1%11.9%4.0%0.4%3.3%-4.3.1%-2.2%2.5%-2.1%1.0%0.2%3.7%-64.7%-0.6%2.7%1.8%1.6%5.2%2.2%2.2%-1.5%-9.0%-19.5%-0.1%0.9%3.5%-1.9%-1.5%0.5%-0.8%-7.5%1.0%-3.52.6%0.0%8.7%-3.4%-0.8%6.3%-5.2.4%-25.6%46.9%6.5%13.8%28.9%-3.9%-3.8%8.9%-10.7%27.7%38.6%8.9%-7.3%-29.0%-6.8%71.3%44.4%5.1%12.5%0.1%56.8%-32.4%22.7%-3.2%20.6%107.7%23.4%18.6%59.3%0.0%37.1%-5.5%23.7%20.3%41.4%43.0%10.9%0.7%-27.4%10.4%47.6%53.3%---1--1-50.19.63.4%-5.1%9.0%-26.3%-4.2%17.5%-26.3%5.1%20.1%-3.1%11.6%33.24.-8.4%-8.3%1.3%-9.8%-0.4%0.2%-13.4%-3.0%-26.8%-3.3%-15.4%-2.3%-6.3%-1.5%-9.8%6.9%14.8%8.4%7.1%5.2%8.5%-17.6%20.9%-2.5%-15.5%21.6%-35.3%11.3%7.5%-6.8%51.1%-27.7%3.4%0.1%18.6%25.1%5.3%14.4%13.5%13.6%19.2%-5.5%.8%-7.7%4.2%-6.9%3.0%6.9%4.6%-0.1%-7.5%-2.6%-0.1%8.8%0.8%%.7%3%14.3%4.6%16.1%7.3%-0.6%0.4%0.6%3.6%12.9%6.0%--0.04%-0.41%8.9%20.3%6.7%-0.2%-0.1%3.9%25.6%21.9%-10.6%4.9%7.7%-5.7%3.6%4.6%1.0%-3.-3.0.25%3%4.5-37.18.6%30.3%8.414.94%9%4.5%1.4%1.1.41.93.8%5%435.8%1.-30.18.510.5.23.3.6.7.-23.-53..7%7.8%1.18.19.9%1.5较25H1变动存放央行较25H1变动同业资产较25H1变动金融投资较25H1变动贷款总额较25H1变动生息资产公司简称工商银行上市银行总计国有行股份行城商行农商行70.0%59.7%72.2%工商银行上市银行总计国有行股份行城商行农商行70.0%59.7%72.2%42.3%72.5%59.5%51.1%56.3%42.8%40.9%58.3%49.8%47.1%48.2%41.3%42.9%32.8%55.8%30.9%35.4%42.6%51.4%48.5%58.2%44.0%64.2%41.6%25.8%43.4%47.5%62.4%39.6%39.3%37.4%35.0%43.6%21.6%59.6%31.7%46.0%36.8%43.5%57.5%64.0%49.2%41.7%2.0%-3.3%0.6%1.0%1.3%-0.8%0.3%2.1%-0.2%1.1%-0.7%1.1%%%%3.6%-0.7%-3.4%0.2%-1.1%0.8%2.9%-4.2%-0.9%-2.4%0.4%-2.9%-0.3%2.2%7.2%1.2%0.5%0.3%3.4%0.3%0.3%0.4%-0.7%22.7%-0.2%19.4%22.4%11.0%6.7%12.3%5.2%-5.1%13.1%-5.6%6.8%-1.6%-2.4%-9.0%15.4%17.5%-17.7%19.9%41.5%-0.1%21.7%-1.4%51.6%3.7%15.0%66.3%-4.7%21.1%29.8%-17.9%4.4%-14.4%9.6%-19.6%-4.5%8.5%30.9%-31.4%18.2%-11.7%32.5%11.5%14.7%2.8%9.7%10.4%-6.7%4.9%5.5%5.0%-0.4%-0.8%-1.5%5.6%3.0%3.6%7.7%2.0%3.9%-1.4%11.3%-2.4%-6.%7.9-1.5%-0.1%14.7%-3.3%1.2%3.6%-6.9%-31.8%-1.3%5.615.5-3.9%-3.1%-3.5%-0.2%-1.4%-2.5%19.3%21.0%4.2%-4.4%-17.9%12.5%3.1%3.6%6.0%6.6%3.4%7.4%16.2%14.4%16.2%24.7%26.9%24.9%15.3%18.3%43.0%29.5%24.3%21.1%30.7%21.6%21.2%28.5%15.8%22.9%30.2%16.3%28.7%20.0%23.0%29.7%12.3%21.5%20.1%22.8%16.1%10.4%25.9%11.1%0.3%13.0%17.6%16.9%35.9%14.4%13.0%-0.1%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-1.0.8%-0.6%-2.3%0.3%0.7%-0.7-0.8-0.3%0.6%-1.00.6%0.2%-1.2-0.9-1.0-4.7%-1.2-1.11.6%-1.-1.-0.4%-0.7%1.6%-0.3%-0.2%-0.8-1.--1.-1.-0.1%-3.1%1.1%-0.522.7%35.9%5.6%15.5%6.5%-5.5%30.6%-8.8%15.3%3.3%9.3%2.6%12.5%28.2%12.1%15.5%16.2%4.0%4.9%-25.1%-29.7%4.2%4.7%52.2%4.1%10.7%5.2%1.0%-5.7%-13.2%4.2%20.7%35.8%2.0%-5.9%-17.6%-85.2%7.0%-1.5%-20.8%131.9%22.7%8.6%18.3%8.8%-2.9%-4.9%-2.8%-3.6%16.5%-13.9-1.3%-2.9%-5.8%5.6%-12.0%-1.7%-6.1%1.2%12.2%8.7%4.2%-1.1%-3.6%-3-28.-93.5%1.6%5.7%-3.7%-10.7%-9.7%-6.8%5.0%-49.9%29.1%-16.4%-7.6%13.6%1.1%23.5%-1.0%0.3%-7.5%28.3%17.8%5.8%7.9%-0.4%2.5%-3.2%-0.7%24.0%33.7%24.4%50.3%11.2%26.1%32.8%19.0%30.3%34.2%26.4%31.9%9.9%22.3%34.4%36.0%36.5%22.6%47.9%36.1%41.6%25.7%21.3%25.5%27.3%15.8%35.4%44.5%44.3%31.0%17.4%37.6%44.6%52.2%39.1%45.4%78.0%27.4%50.7%37.1%27.4%42.2%29.4%28.6%27.4%34.8%-1.8%3.1%-0.3%-0.8%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.1%-0.1%-1.8%1.4%-0.3%-1.3%0.8%2.5%0.5%0.1%4.01.32.83.22.14.4%-2.4%1.81.81.22.6-0.4%-2.3%2.51.2%2.60.4%5.6%1.9%0.0%-5.8%0.1%-0.4%2.8%-4.5%0.2%-0.2%0.2%1.7%27.6%73.7%7.0%18.0%30.0%19.3%32.9%8.0%27.1%16.3%26.6%18.0%-13.2%34.0%13.6%85.1%98.8%127.7%23.3%87.6%78.9%71.0%38.6%7.7%20.0%43.3%9.0%53.9%20.0%40.7%334.0%25.6%22.8%2.9%74.7%52.8%18.4%-17.4%13.1%3.9%-8.0%-6.0%29.3%27.1%21.1%60.5%-24.4%21.9%0.0%-14.2%-2.1%-5.8%1.5%-19.6%-4.7%2.0%-12.7%-6.5%-29.9%12.9%4.0%-29.9%-18.7%35.6%3.2%12.9%9.0%-8.1%4.7%-29.6%-14.7%32.0%19.8%5.4%-5.6%-17.3%-177.6%5.3%-4.8%-3.2%17.2%-17.1%7.6%-36.5-37.03.2%13.9%-6.6%-4.6%-5.7%-4.2%-0.5%2.5%%%%-65.4%3%4%2.2%6%-2.8%%%%%%5%4%%%%%%%2%8.2%1.9---4.0%%%%%%%%%%0-2.5%%2.0--1.6%%%4%较25Q2变动同比增速较25Q2变动占比较25Q2变动同比增速较25Q2变动占比较25Q2变动同比增速较25Q2变动占比公司简称OCITPLAC三季度来看,有效信贷需求依然偏弱,零售贷款占比普遍下滑。统计披露贷款分项的银行来看,25Q3有效信贷仍然偏弱,大行票据冲量明显,股份行和城农商行对公贷款贡献主要增量,零售贷款占比普遍下滑,消费贴息政策本身有严格的场景约束,对消费贷规模的提振效果相对温和,政策刺激效果相对有限。图13:25Q3上市银行贷款结构,大行票贴冲量,城商行仍以对公贷款为主工商银行工商银行农业银行交通银行招商银行兴业银行民生银行宁波银行杭州银行郑州银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行沪农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行62.0%57.6%65.9%44.1%61.8%61.4%62.7%71.1%67.2%76.5%75.4%76.1%71.8%53.8%59.5%38.4%68.1%-0.4%-1.7%0.0%0.7%-0.4%3.0%.7%.2%-0.4%5.4%0.6%11.6%2.9%-0.6%0.0%0.4%0.0%29.9%34.6%31.4%51.8%32.4%38.6%31.2%28.9%23.7%23.5%21.2%23.9%27.8%39.0%27.3%-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%0.1%-0.8%-0.3%-0.8%-0.8%0.4%-1.1-1.10.2%-3.1%-0.2%0.2%0.9%0.4%0.1%1.2%-2.9%9.1%0.0%0.5%0.4%7.1%13.2%7.9%13.2%0.2%0.8%-0.2%0.1%1.2%56.3%64.7%72.2%54.2%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.6%29.7%21.3%15.4%42.5%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.4%14.0%14.1%12.4%3.3%0.1%-0.1%0.2%-1.1%%%43较25H1变动票据贴现占比较25H1变动零售贷款占比较25H1变动公司简称 对公贷款占比2.7%6.1%8.1%3.4%6.1%5.8%分板块看,国股行生息资产增速边际下行,城农商行边际扩张积极。1)国有行资产扩张边际放缓,其中金融投资增速环比提升1.3pct最为显著,同业资产增速环比-12.1pct,除交行外,贷款增速边际下行幅度均在0.4pct以内;2)股份行扩表动能持续偏弱,贷款、金融投资增速环比均有下行,且下行幅度大于其他板块,兴业、华夏板块内扩表相对积极;3)城商行资产扩张积极,且结构较为均衡,贷款增速环比基本持平,金融投资增速环比+1.0pct,结构上向OCI倾斜的趋势也最为突出,各类资产增速领跑各子板块;4)农商行生息资产增速边际提升最多,主要依靠同业资产高速增长。图14:上市银行贷款总额同比增速走势,各子板块贷款增速环比均有小幅下滑上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%负债端,存款增长放缓,同业负债增速提升。截至25Q3,上市银行计息负债增速环比-0.2pct至9.6%,其中存款增速环比-0.4pct至7.9%,存款增长放缓,子板块中仅农商行存款增速环比+1.1pct,国有行基本持平。银行主动负债扩张积极,同业负债增速环比+3.3pct至19.6%,城农商行尤为明显。存款到期或有部分脱媒,叠加三季度资本市场相对活跃,对存款有部分分流。图15:截至25Q3存款同比增速,仅农商行存款增速边际改善上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%图16:25Q3上市银行计息负债及其细分类别同比增速及变动情况:国股行计息负债增速下滑,城农商行边际提升公司简公司简称 计息负债 较变动 存款总额 较变动 应付债券 较变动 同业负债 较变动 向央行借款 较变动工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行北京银行江苏银行上海银行宁波银行南京银行杭州银行成都银行长沙银行重庆银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行渝农商行沪农商行青农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡银行张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行上市银行总计国有行股份行城商行农商行

10.5%10.1%10.8%5.4%8.5%3.2%3.7%7.6%1.8%4.9%-0.4%4.9%3.6%23.1%27.4%2.6%17.9%16.7%13.2%11.4%9.1%25.9%3.2%12.3%15.3%12.8%16.9%7.8%23.5%10.3%9.3%5.8%5.8%11.4%5.7%9.9%1.5%8.7%12.2%10.2%9.6%10.5%4.6%

-1.4%2.0%0.2%-0.6%0.0%0.6%-0.5%-1.3%0.4%-2.0%-3.4%0.1%1.4%1.5%-1.1%0.4%2.9%-0.6%0.8%-2.3%-3.5%2.9%-0.4%0.6%0.6%0.1%0.4%-0.3%2.0%0.5%1.4%-0.9%-1.1%1.9%5.3%0.6%-1.0%6.4%0.4%0.7%-0.2%-0.2%-0.5%

8.0%.5%.6%8.3%8.1%6.1%9.0%7.6%7.9%8.2%1.7%4.1%0.6%9.7%7.6%11.1%22.5%3.3%9.9%17.0%14.6%12.6%8.9%19.6%3.7%15.8%12.5%12.9%11.2%4.2%12.5%11.6%9.3%7.0%6.1%9.7%5.3%11.2%6.6%7.1%12.4%10.3%7.9%7.8%6.5%

-0.3%1.3%-0.7%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%0.2%-1.4%-4.1%-2.6%-4.4%-4.5%-2.9%1.0%1.2%-2.2%0.9%1.5%-2.8%1.0%-1.6%-2.1%-2.4%-0.7%-2.1%0.2%-0.8%1.4%-1.8%-1.1%0.3%-0.4%0.4%1.1%-1.9%-0.2%5.5%1.8%1.1%2.9%2.8%3.6%-0.4%0.0%-2.0%

23.4%13.8%19.8%12.6%56.6%9.9%-37.0%-21.0%-12.7%13.1%2.4%11.4%3.4%-1.0%13.7%42.6%19.9%33.2%6.8%2.5%13.8%16.4%0.2%16.3%27.6%17.7%23.7%14.1%42.7%34.2%45.5%9.5%5.3%-12.3%-2.4%-39.0%-53.1%0.0%-7.8%-72.1%0.0%-21.7%10.9%17.7%-1.7%

-40.2%-18.2%-0.5%8.3%-43.7%-8.9%3.9%-9.5%-5.2%-4.5%-20.3%7.8%13.4%1.0%5.4%-16.2%-47.5%10.6%-3.3%-12.2%-11.6%-5.7%-4.5%-10.8%12.9%12.4%4.7%-15.3%-5.7%59.5%2.7%-6.2%-18.4%-16.5%-8.2%7.8%-106.9%82.3%10.3%-14.3%55.6%-3.0%-7.0%-10.4%-2.4%

21.2%37.8%27.2%1.1%98.9%10.5%38.6%9.6%8.7%8.9%5.3%-6.9%-5.1%-0.6%-19.0%63.4%56.5%-22.2%92.4%41.0%18.6%1.1%52.7%74.3%-35.6%-18.5%0.9%19.7%33.0%25.2%215.7%3.0%24.3%12.5%44.9%62.1%103.0%-77.7%-63.8%72.0%82.6%28.1%19.6%23.6%6.3%

1.5%2.6%-10.0%5.3%5.7%-4.1%8.8%8.1%9.8%2.5%27.5%-3.2%-4.9%-5.9%0.7%23.1%17.1%-16.3%36.8%4.0%28.3%-11.8%32.1%48.5%-12.1%-4.4%-0.7%7.1%17.1%-21.5%217.1%8.6%27.1%-11.4%53.6%33.1%123.9%-167.5%-19.8%38.0%-250.0%-39.9%3.3%-0.2%6.7%

-16.8%-2.8%-4.8%86.7%-16.6%-38.8%-69.0%-48.2%-46.3%-32.9%-14.5%106.0%-19.5%0.3%1.5%4.0%14.8%-0.8%-68.2%11.8%-14.5%-14.5%-5.6%51.5%19.3%24.7%64.2%-15.0%11.0%-2.3%85.5%22.5%-4.0%1.7%-7.6%19.4%-14.3%12.6%20.1%224.5%-29.4%8.5%1.4%12.8%-25.9%

9.3%-11.5%10.1%35.5%-4.1%6.0%-45.4%19.3%12.3%19.5%1.0%13.6%-89.1%19.2%-2.2%23.0%34.0%32.4%0.4%6.1%-2.0%10.1%-78.4%22.2%13.1%-11.9%5.1%-3.2%13.6%-0.2%-261.6%17.8%3.5%9.2%-31.5%-4.5%0.9%-3.1%-31.1%119.4%-13.2%-0.6%5.8%7.8%-3.1%三、净息差边际企稳,负债成本持续改善净息差基本持平于25H1。25Q31.33%25H12411bp24Q32316bp25H1下行0.5bp、上升1.0bp1.3bp0.2bp(测算值)1bp,板块内表现最优,而股份行主要受益于负债成本更显著的改善。拆分资负两端来看,25Q32441bp2416bp34BP2424BP3-5之外,还有大量1-2年期存款陆续到期,后续负债成本改善空间依旧乐观,有望支撑净息差坚挺表现。图17:上市银行净息差、生息资产收益率和计息负债成本率(测算)净息差(测算) 生息资产收益率(测算) 计息负债成本率(测算)1.33%1.33%1.33%1.33%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50%1.00%测算注:生息资产、计息负债取上一年度末余额与本期末余额的平均值部分银行息差已出现环比回升,国有行息差环比降幅均在2bp以内。在披露净息差数据的上市银行中,民生、华夏、苏州、齐鲁、江阴、瑞丰等净息差较25H1抬升,中行、中信、宁波等已边际企稳。0 1.41% 03 1.40% 1-2-3-2-2-425Q3较25H1(BP)25H1较25Q1(BP)25Q325H125Q124A公司简称1.55%1.54%1.57%1.59%1.79%1.80%1.83%1.87%1.54%1.42%1.39%1.41%1.39%1.63%1.63%1.65%1.77%1.42%1.72%1.75%1.80%1.82%1.87%1.88%1.91%1.98%1.20%1.21%1.23%1.27%1.68%1.70%1.71%1.87%1.26%1.26%1.29%1.30%1.32%1.34%1.42%1.40%1.36%1.40%1.41%1.51%1.28%1.30%1.33%1.42%-2 1.64% 1.50% 1.39% 1.50% 1.46% 1.39%

01.76%1.76%1.41%1.80%1.15%1.17%1.78%1.76%1.76%1.41%1.80%1.15%1.17%1.78%1.86%1.31%1.47%1.67%1.69%1.76%1.71%工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行北京银行江苏银行上海银行宁波银南京银行杭州银行成都银行长沙银行重庆银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行1.57%1.53%1.54%1.75%1.72%1.73%1.39%1.35%1.87%2.11%1.62%1.66%1.35%1.86%41.38%1.37%1.54%1.53%1.34%1.38%1.37%1.54%1.53%1.34%1.33%1.34%111-41.55%1.42%1.43%1.43%1.62%1.51%1.23%1.42%2.71%渝农商行沪农商行青农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡银行张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行1.08%1.13%1.70%1.36%1.46%1.43%1.51%1.38%1.68%1.72%1.77%1.59%1.60%1.61%1.61%1.59%1.60%1.61%1.61%1.17%1.18%2.57%2.58%1.17%1.18%2.57%2.58%2.61%1.61%1.61%1.64%1.67%00-1.5-1.50.0-2.60.40.21.31.46%1.46%1.45%1.54%1.34%1.32%1.35%1.38%1.33%1.33%1.35%1.44%上市银行总计(测算)国有行(股份行(城商行(测算)农商行(测算)1.49%1.46%1.46%1.50%23301.56%1.54%1.51%1.76%-2-2-20四、资产质量基本稳定,信用成本重回下行区间不良率环比持平,资产质量基本稳定。25Q31.23%25H1基本持1.26%/1.20%/1.03%/1.07%基本持平,城农商行环比小幅改善1bp,上市银行整体资产质量表观指标相对稳健。个股层面,3bp基于披露关注率数据的银行来看,华夏银行、厦门银行环比压降幅度显著,部分农商行及个别城商行抬升幅度偏大,压力或主要来自小微和零售领域。图19:25Q3上市银行不良贷款余额、不良贷款率、关注率及变动情况,不良率保持平稳1.43%1.67%2.18%1.63%2.74%1.28%2.08%1.08%1.06%0.53%1.28%2.08%1.08%1.06%0.53%0.37%3.25%0.80%2.04%3.17%51150-120-45瑞丰银瑞丰银上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行4,0483,6553,4142,8879101,1466746467296696595073593852573062071701301177857725956724131424846198775462026131412114037-51111-80-1-1018-210-20010-20-1000-10012-211-3-70-200-1-7-3-50-2044602-7-641339-3-4816,0594,8841,55031800-1-11.07%1.03%1.20%79-11.26%1320.85%0.90%1.28%1.24%1.18%0.94%0.62%000-10.78%1.61%111.35%0.76%1.73%0.97%1.12%0.80%1.53%1.80%1.09%0.83%1.76%1.63%1.18%1.14%20.68%0.76%0.83%0.76%1.18%0.84%1.29%1.36%1.58%1.05%1.26%1.48%1.16%-2-2-20-21-541311311-20001000-20-10200001.29%1.08%0.94%1.26%20.94%1.27%1.24%1121.33%1.32%475.09%1.81%2.29%1.73%5.12%0.96%2.32%1.74%公司简称 不良贷款余额(亿元)较25Q2变动(亿元) 不良贷款率 较25Q2变动(BP) 关注率 较25Q2变动(BP)1.38%计提减值损失增速拐头向下,信用成本重回下行区间。截至25Q3,测算上市银行整体信用成本率0.69%,环比下行10bp,国有行和农商行环比下行12bp,股份行、城商行环比下行5bp和1bp。资产减值损失增速-1.9%3.3pct拨备来看,截至25Q3,上市银行拨备覆盖率环比小幅下降2.2pct至236.3%,拨贷比下行3bp至2.90%,风险抵补能力无虞。图20:截至25Q3,上市银信用成本重回下行区间 图21:截至25Q3,上市银减值计提增速拐头向下图22:25Q3上市银行测算信用成本率、拨贷比、拨备覆盖率及变动情况工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行北京银行江苏银行上海银行宁波银行南京银行杭州银行成都银行长沙银行重庆银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行渝农商行沪农商行青农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡银行张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行北京银行江苏银行上海银行宁波银行南京银行杭州银行成都银行长沙银行重庆银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行渝农商行沪农商行青农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡银行张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行上市银行总计国有行股份行城商行农商行0.58%0.61%0.66%0.48%0.33%0.67%0.63%0.96%1.21%1.04%1.22%0.63%1.02%1.01%1.37%0.72%0.92%0.96%1.07%1.00%0.38%0.30%1.49%0.87%0.93%1.46%1.18%0.28%1.21%1.27%2.10%0.34%0.58%0.21%1.02%0.92%0.52%0.57%0.69%0.11%1420-11-144141613242452613-1110412936342.89%3.10%3.75%2.44%2.26%2.65%3.82%2.46%2.55%2.37%2.12%2.13%2.41%2.36%2.17%2.53%2.71%3.01%2.86%2.60%3.90%2.94%3.68%2.83%3.91%3.28%2.97%3.49%3.83%3.49%1131612149-274.09%3.30%4.33%3.52%2.49%3.34%3.34%3.35%3-2012-27-0.5%-4.3%0.1%-0.8%-20.1%0.4%-5.0%-0.7%4.1%-3.4%-2.1%-3.6%-8.-7.-10.0%-8.4%11.3%1.8%1.6%-7.2.2%-0.2%1.0%7.0%17.2%-17.3%8.2%-13.9%13.0%-17.3%9.2%3.6%1.4%3.0%-28.9%-31.0%0.69%0.57%0.97%0.90%0.56%-9.9-12.3-5.4-0.62.90%2.97%2.60%2.97%3.57%-3236.3%234.9%217.5%288.9%334.8%-2.2%-2.4%-2.5%1.0%-2.3%-11.6-3-4---15.7%-26.6%---14--2%-15-10.2%3%9%-14-15-9----14--较25Q2变动(BP)较25Q2变动(BP) 拨备覆盖率公司简称 测算信用成本率 较25Q2变动(BP) 拨贷比五、资本充足率有所回落,险资持续增持银行较25Q2变动一级资本充足较25Q2变动资本充足率较25Q2变动工商银行重庆贵阳上市银13.614.411.212.610.711.413.99.78.99.69.39.79.59.38.48.4较25Q2变动一级资本充足较25Q2变动资本充足率较25Q2变动工商银行重庆贵阳上市银13.614.411.212.610.711.413.99.78.99.69.39.79.59.38.48.48.610.59.29.59.68.810.2(BP)-32251131210-2516-231-1512-26-447-10168.88.89.811.58.48.78.513.014.510.711.110.811.811.110.813.812.916-30-15-47-58-32941-17-32率(%)14.815.212.914.712.212.816.311.010.611.011.311.711.111.19.611.911.311.410.711.111.810.511.99.713.910.710.211.612.611.110.110.513.614.513.711.210.812.912.310.813.812.9(BP)-450-123410-38-82-33189-291521-30-2111-274-16-27815-34-1212-51-74-34-113-17-3443-1137(%)18.919.217.818.714.716.117.613.912.913.012.913.713.512.612.212.812.514.314.613.614.414.414.212.615.112.013.113.614.713.212.913.214.816.915.413.712.514.013.512.914.914.1(BP)-69-27339-46-97-33-66-46-381222-44-16-2411-29-591-21-33815-389-58-87-346-69-3244-113434115851631265812821核心一级资本充足率(%)公司简称图23:25Q3上市银行各级资本充足率及变动情况,资本充足率有所回落国股份行10.0111.8-1413.8-40城商行9.3-711.3113.6-9农商行12.6-713.2714.91图24:上市银行风险加权资产同比增速走势,25Q3风险加权资产增速环比+0.7pct全部银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-09险资再度增持银行A股和H股,国资增持本地城商行。25Q3,我们梳理银行前十大股东发现,险资再度增持银行,预计保险进入开门红阶段红利配置需求增加。例如平安人寿增持农业银行AA1.40%1.98%;中国人寿0.21%、1.48%、2.08%和3.40%;此外还有国民养老保险增持苏州2%H股持续增持银

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