2026年全球新能源车销量展望报告-2025-12-新能源

vestmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense[2012]No.669投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：hIn2025,China’sdomesticsalesofnlithiumcarbonatedema），风险提示：宏观政策，地缘事件2 5 8 3 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 4 RelatedReports相关报告51.NewEnergyVehicles:PolicyRetrenchmentinChina'sMarket,DivergentDynamicsinOverseasMarketstons.sales.Overallsalesvolum610thousandNewEnergyPassengerVehiclesRetailSales14012010080604020020212022202320242025M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M1210thousandNewEnergyPassengerVehiclesExports25205020212022202320242025M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12segmentstoodat35%,a4-percentage-pointdecreasefromthe100%80%60%40%20%0%Over400,000yuan100%80%60%40%20%0%Over400,000yuan300,000to400,000yuan200,000to300,000yuan150,000to200,000yuan100,000to150,000yuan50,000to100,000yuan2019202020212022202320242025M1-M9TenMillion908070mmEVretailsalesmmPHEVretailsales GrowthrateofBEVs(rightaxis)GrowthrateofPHEVs(rightaxis)200%150%60100%5050%400%3020-50%-100%0-150%2018/062020/062022/062024/067Salesmaintainedsteadygrowthwas0.34RMB/Wh,remainingstablethroughGwh9000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000GwhGwhPowerBatteryExport:LFPPowerBatteryPowerBatteryPowerBatteryExport:LFPPowerBatteryPowerBatteryExport:TernaryPowerBattery20864202022/2/12022/4/12022/6/12022/8/12022/10/12022/12/12023/2/12023/4/12023/6/12023/8/12023/10/12023/12/12024/2/12024/4/12024/6/12024/8/12024/10/12024/12/12025/2/12025/4/12025/6/12025/8/12025/10/12023/10/12022/2/12022/4/12022/6/12022/8/12022/10/12022/12/12023/2/12023/4/12023/6/12023/8/12023/10/12023/12/12024/2/12024/4/12024/6/12024/8/12024/10/12024/12/12025/2/12025/4/12025/6/12025/8/12025/10/12023/10/12023/11/12023/12/12024/1/12024/2/12024/3/12024/4/12024/5/12024/6/12024/7/12024/8/12024/9/12024/10/12024/11/12024/12/12025/1/12025/2/12025/3/12025/4/12025/5/12025/6/12025/7/12025/8/12025/9/1Sources:Wind,CITICFuturesSources:Wind,CITICFutures8Yuan/Gwh8-SeriesYuan/Gwh8-SeriesPrismaticTernaryBatteryCell-1.2AveragePricePrismaticLFPBatteryCell-AveragePriceAveragePricePrismaticLFPBatteryCell-AveragePrice(RightAxis)1.00.20.00.612024/092024/122025/032025/062025/09planningofvariousathe"vehiclemodel-automaker-market"framewo9EnterpriseFY2023Y2023ShareFY2024Y2024ShareFY2025YOYMarketshareFY2025YOYMarketshareA28832.8%41334.1%47515%31.1%54515%31.2%B323.6%685.6%152124%9.9%17918%10.2%C738.3%927.6%88-4%5.8%895.1%D384.3%594.9%7731%5.0%9726%5.6%E525.9%635.2%8941%5.8%11934%6.8%F1.6%252.1%55120%3.6%9165%5.2%G1.3%494.0%7247%4.7%8518%4.9%H1.4%443.6%43-2%2.8%442%2.5%I1.6%201.7%46130%3.0%8278%4.7%J242.7%322.6%4025%2.6%4923%2.8%K--1.2%38171%2.5%7289%4.1%L1.8%221.8%2827%1.8%3421%1.9%M1.3%1.6%3268%2.1%3922%2.2%N50/443.6%32-27%2.1%28-13%1.6%SUBTOTAL878100%1210100%152926%100%174714%100%millionwereforautomobilescraprlocalgovernmentstosupportthetrade-inDailyRequest（million/0markingatighteningofthe2025pphaseout,consumerdemandisexpectedtowithdrawal.for66%ofannualtotal4.4%.Modelsabove339,000yuan—representingICEICEvehiclepurchasetaxthousand652026NEVpurchasetax2025NEVpurchasetax432100510152025303540455055TotalExpenditure（tenthousand）China'sautoexportsperfomarket.Specifically,exporAsiaLAAfricaOceaniaNAEurope350000AsiaLAAfricaOceaniaNAEurope3000002500002000001500001000005000002.Europe:PolicySupportDrivesRecoveryoftheAutoMarketwhichareexpectedtofurtherboostthesal502018/12019/52020/92022/12023/5Unit450000Unit450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000■■EV.PHEV2018/12018/52018/12018/52018/92019/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/92024/12024/52024/92025/12025/5Thetimelineforcarbonemissiontargstimulatesales,aimingtoa"electricvehiclesocialleAnnouncement/ImplementationConsumersareeligibleforamaximumsubsidyofwhenpurchasinganelectricexceeding£37,000(approximatelyUSD50,000).Simultaneouslyannounceda£6newchargingpilesinrwithspecificfinancialsupportforhouseholdswithdrivewaystoalleviatecharginganxAleasingschemedesignedforlow-incomehousehstartingSeptember30,20Thethresholdforimposingpenaltieswillbelogramsperkilometer.Themaximumfineforthevehicleswillbeincreasedfrom€70,000to€80,000.Anew€3billionEVsupurchaseincentiveof€4,000pervehiclA€600millionEVpurchasesubsreceiveupto€11,000,whilemicroandsmeligibleforamaximumof€20,000.3.U.S.:PessimisticExpectationsfromPolicyShift;NoFurtherUpsideforSalesinternationally.Thesemeasureshavedrasalesisattributedtothe502018/12019/52020/92022/12023/5Unit200000180000Unit200000180000160000140000120000100000800006000040000200000PHEVEV2018/12018/52018/12018/52018/92019/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/92024/12024/52024/92025/12025/5over10%oftotalvehicleselectricpickupswillbeless4.GlobalMarket:2026NEVSalesForecastSlightlyRaisedto23.65MillionUnits,withaYoYIncreaseof16%recurringtariffadjusttohowmajorautomakerexpectedtobemodera4NEVCommercialVehi737Appendix:ChineseVersion1.新能源车：中国市场政策退坡，海外市场格局分化与关税调整共同推升购车成本。预计2026年预测全球新能源销售2365万辆（），），），10thousandNewEnergyPassengerVehiclesRetailSales14012010080604020020212022202320242025M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M1210thousandNewEnergyPassengerVehiclesExports25205020212022202320242025M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12），）；100%80%60%40%20%0%Over400,000yuan300,000to100%80%60%40%20%0%Over400,000yuan300,000to400,000yuan200,000to300,000yuan150,000to200,000yuan100,000to150,000yuan50,000to100,000yuanBelow50,000yuan2019202020212022202320242025M1-M9TenMillion908070EVretailsalesmmPHEVretailsales GrowthrateofBEVs(rightaxis)GrowthrateofPHEVs(rightaxis)200%150%60100%5050%400%3020-50%-100%0-150%2018/062020/062022/062024/06+42%)，其中磷酸铁锂装机量为402GWh(同比+62%)，三元电池装机Gwh90000800007000060000500004000030000200001000002022/2/12022/4/12022/6/12022/8/12022/10/12022/12/12023/2/12023/4/12023/6/12023/8/12023/10/12023/12/12024/2/12024/4/12024/6/12024/8/12024/10/12024/12/12025/2/12025/4/12025/6/12022/2/12022/4/12022/6/12022/8/12022/10/12022/12/12023/2/12023/4/12023/6/12023/8/12023/10/12023/12/12024/2/12024/4/12024/6/12024/8/12024/10/12024/12/12025/2/12025/4/12025/6/12025/8/12025/10/1China:PowerBatteryInstalledCapacity(LFP)Sources:Wind,CITICFuturesGwh2086420PowerBatteryGwh2086420PowerBatteryExport:TernaryPowerBattery2023/10/12023/11/12023/12/12024/1/12023/10/12023/11/12023/12/12024/1/12024/2/12024/3/12024/4/12024/5/12024/6/12024/7/12024/8/12024/9/12024/10/12024/11/12024/12/12025/1/12025/2/12025/3/12025/4/12025/5/12025/6/12025/7/12025/8/12025/9/1Sources:Wind,CITICFuturesYuan/Gwh8-SeriesYuan/Gwh8-SeriesPrismaticTernaryBatteryCell-1.2AveragePricePrismaticLFPBatteryCell-AveragePriceAveragePricePrismaticLFPBatteryCell-AveragePrice(RightAxis)1.00.20.00.612024/092024/122025/032025/062025/09EnterpriseFY2023Y2023ShareFY2024Y2024ShareFY2025YOYMarketshareFY2025YOYMarketshareA28832.8%41334.1%47515%31.1%54515%31.2%B323.6%685.6%152124%9.9%17918%10.2%C738.3%927.6%88-4%5.8%895.1%D384.3%594.9%7731%5.0%9726%5.6%E525.9%635.2%8941%5.8%11934%6.8%F1.6%252.1%55120%3.6%9165%5.2%G1.3%494.0%7247%4.7%8518%4.9%H1.4%443.6%43-2%2.8%442%2.5%I1.6%201.7%46130%3.0%8278%4.7%J242.7%322.6%4025%2.6%4923%2.8%K--1.2%38171%2.5%7289%4.1%L1.8%221.8%2827%1.8%3421%1.9%M1.3%1.6%3268%2.1%3922%2.2%N50/443.6%32-27%2.1%28-13%1.6%SUBTOTAL878100%1210100%152926%100%174714%100%DailyRequest（million/0ICEICEvehiclepurchasetax2026NEVpurchasetax2025NEVpurchasetaxthousand65432100510152025303540455055TotalExpenditure（tenthousand）AsiaLAAfricaOceaniaNAEurope350000AsiaLAAfricaOceaniaNAEurope3000002500002000001500001000005000002.欧洲：政策提供支撑，车市迎来边际复苏8月销量为52万辆，同比+46%。在其他小份额国502018/12019/52020/92022/12023/5Unit450000Unit450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000EVEVPHEV2018/12018/52018/12018/52018/92019/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/92024/12024/52024/92025/12025/5发展，从车企角度看，部分传统车企对新能源车降Announcement/ImplementationConsumersareeligibleforamaximumsubsidyofwhenpurchasinganelectricexceeding£37,000(approximatelyUSD50,000).Simultaneouslyannounceda£6newchargingpilesinrwithspecificfinancialsupportforhouseholdswithdrivewaystoalleviatecharginganxAleasingschemedesignedforlow-incomehousehstartingSeptember30,20Thethresholdforimposingpenaltieswillbelogramsperkilometer.Themaximumfineforthevehicleswillbeincreasedfrom€70,000to€80,000.Anew€3billionEVsupurchaseincentiveof€4,000pervehiclA€600millionEVpurchasesubsreceiveupto€11,000,whilemicroandsmeligibleforamaximumof€20,000.3.美国：政策转向悲观预期，销量亮点或难再寻政策端来看，2025年美国对内取消新能源车补贴，对外加征汽车进），），502018/12019/52020/92022/12023/5Unit200000180000Unit200000180000160000140000120000100000800006000040000200000PHEVEV2018/12018/52018/12018/52018/92019/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/92024/12024/52024/92025/12025/5的墨西哥汽车制造均出口至美国，包括大众（墨出口约影响54.全球：小幅上调2026年新能源车销量至2365万辆，同比+16%海外政策影响显著，美欧市场两极分化。欧洲方面，2026年市场预计总销量408万辆（同比4NEVCommercialVehi737CITICFuturesInternationalResearchReports/LPG/PTA/LLDPE/Methanol/Urea/ShippingFreigMeal/RapeseedOil/Corn/N宏观经济/资产配置/CTA/股指/香港股指/国债/汇率/恒生生物科技指料/甲醇/尿素/航运/生猪/豆粕/豆油/棕榈油/菜粕/菜油/玉米/天然橡胶/【Cross-BorderArbitrage跨境套利】CrudeOil/IronOre/Soybean/Copper/Rubber/PlamOil胶/棕榈油Cross-BorderArbitrageStat【RiskManagement风险管理】IronOre/Plastic/Stee