地缘局势不确定性加剧军工板块关注度有望提升

内容目录核心观点和建议关注 4建议关注 4重点赛道动态 5可控核聚变：中国环流三号实现“高质量燃烧”新纪录，研发有序推进 5低空经济：政策与产业两端同周共振，促进低空出行新图景 6航发&燃机：中国航发“3D打印极简涡喷发动机”完成首次单发飞行试验 7卫星互联网：长征十二号运载火箭成功发射卫星互联网低轨13组卫星 8本周市场回顾 9板块指数 9板块估值 10融资融券 个股表现 14个股估值 14三季报数据 16风险提示 19图表目录“中国环流三号”（HL-3）现场 5上海进博会上的eVTOL展出 6中国航发3D打印极简涡喷发动机 7长征十二号运载火箭发射 8本周板块涨跌幅（%） 9申万国防军工板块近一个月成交量（亿股） 9申万国防军工板块近一个月成交金额（亿元） 10PE-TTM（整体法、剔除负值） 10各子板块PE-TTM（整体法、剔除负值） 国防军工板块融资融券数据 申万（2021）军工板块个股本周融资买入额增减幅前五十情况 申万（2021）军工板块个股本周融券卖出额增减幅前五十情况 13一周涨幅前五 14一周涨幅后五 14国防军工板块（申万2021）个股估值 15国防军工板块（申万2021）三季报数据 16核心观点和建议关注核心观点：地缘局势不确定性加剧，军工板块关注度有望提升14日下午我国国防部就高市早苗的挑衅言14日凌晨俄罗斯再次对乌克兰发起新一轮“朱雀三号”发射在即，重点关注商业航天投资机会月中下旬首飞，发射时间临近，该型建议关注【导弹及军工电子】导弹产业链【航空发动机】整机：航发动力。配套：航发控制、航发科技、航材股份、应流股份、航宇科技。【军贸】整机：中航成飞、中航沈飞、中航西飞、航天彩虹。系统：国睿科技、航天南湖。【新域新质建设】（无人机重点赛道动态可控核聚变：中国环流三号实现“高质量燃烧”新纪录，研发有序推进131亿摄氏度，标志着中国可控核聚变技术取得重大进展；全超导（EAST）1000秒“高质量燃烧”；紧凑型聚变能实验装置（BEST）主2027年左右开展燃烧等离子体实验，图表1：“中国环流三号”（HL-3）现场中国政府网低空经济：政策与产业两端同周共振，促进低空出行新图景日明确提出“引导民间资本有序参与低空经济、商业航天等领PPP139.5万家，20252.2万家，区域上eVTOLeVTOL中国经营报航发&燃机：中国航发“3D打印极简涡喷发动机”完成首次单发飞行试验13日，中国航发披露“3D打印极简涡喷发动机”完成首次单发飞行300.75马赫、6000米高度工况7月该发动机完成首次挂飞验证后取得的3D打印极简轻质微型涡喷发动机在工程应用领3D图表3：中国航发3D打印极简涡喷发动机中国科技网卫星互联网：长征十二号运载火箭成功发射卫星互联网低轨13组卫星2025101041分，我国在海南商业航天发射场使13607次发射。4米级单芯级运载火箭，近地轨道运载能力不小1270064.2米、5.2米直径构型的整流罩，支持单星、多星不同轨道发射。本次任务是长征十二号运载火箭首次执行“零窗口”发射。图表4：长征十二号运载火箭发射新华社本周市场回顾板块指数2.15%0.18%，创业板指下30031个申万一级27。周四13日）0.62%。图表5：本周板块涨跌幅（%）））本周军工板块股票交易活跃度与上周相比有所下降，本周一10日）22.2610日）539.52亿元。板块估值PE(TTM)68.973.4289.282.372.039.4PE(TTM)分位数PE(TTM)90.5%、99.5%、89.2%、94.6%、0.0%。））融资融券14380.87378.951.55%225.96亿47.2317.29%1.91亿0.01%0.96亿元，比上期下降0.16亿元，较上周同比下降14.36%。图表10：国防军工板块融资融券数据板块流动市值板块流动市值（亿元）融资融券余额 板块融资余额 融资余额占流通市 融券余额占板块融券余额（亿元）（亿元） （亿元） 值比例 动市值比例本周期融资买入额 比上周期增减量 比上周期增减 本周期融券卖出额 比上周期增本周期融资买入额 比上周期增减量 比上周期增减 本周期融券卖出额 比上周期增比上周期增减额（亿元）（亿元） （亿元） 幅 （亿元） 幅225.96 -47.23 -17.29% 0.96 -0.16 -14.36%（202510日-202514日（2025月3日-2025年11月7日）14日，银河电子、雷科防务、中兵红箭等公司融资买入额增幅0.34亿元，增130.77%。七一二、新劲刚、中航西飞等公司融券卖出额增幅位居板块前列，其中，七一二本周融券卖出额较上周增加130.04万元，同比增加8127.50%。图表11：申万（2021）军工板块个股本周融资买入额增减幅前五十情况融资余额占 本周期融资 上周期融资 融资买入额 融资买入额融资余额占 本周期融资 上周期融资 融资买入额 融资买入额融资余额（亿证券名称 自由流通市 买入额（亿 买入额（亿 比上周期增 比上周期元）值比例 元） 元） 减量（亿元） 减幅证券代码002519.SZ银河电子00.00%0.600.260.34130.77%002413.SZ雷科防务00.00%1.230.630.695.24%000519.SZ中兵红箭00.00%2.621.351.2794.07%603712.SH七一二3.293.97%1.230.670.5683.58%688682.SH霍莱沃0.886.76%0.690.380.3181.58%688011.SH新光光电0.944.59%0.440.250.1976.00%600879.SH航天电子18.086.75%6.243.672.5770.03%300177.SZ中海达00.00%1.350.950.442.11%688070.SH纵横股份1.166.20%0.400.290.1137.93%300762.SZ上海瀚讯00.00%5.694.151.5437.11%600038.SH中直股份12.228.86%2.081.540.5435.06%688523.SH航天环宇1.756.55%2.301.760.5430.68%600391.SH航发科技3.896.83%1.731.330.430.08%688629.SH华丰科技10.977.63%6.024.701.3228.09%688776.SH国光电气4.2610.74%5.114.051.0626.17%688685.SH迈信林6.4910.91%1.231.000.2323.00%688563.SH航材股份2.423.84%0.340.280.0621.43%002935.SZ天奥电子00.00%1.391.160.2319.83%600184.SH光电股份1.714.70%0.550.460.0919.57%688592.SH司南导航1.157.41%0.370.320.0515.63%600862.SH中航高科6.293.66%1.060.940.1212.77%688439.SH振华风光5.5712.00%1.701.510.1912.58%600072.SH中船科技5.215.56%0.630.570.0610.53%688175.SH高凌信息0.925.43%0.250.230.028.70%688282.SH*ST导航0.442.91%0.130.120.018.33%688552.SH航天南湖1.464.56%0.440.410.037.32%600760.SH中航沈飞18.233.63%5.124.780.347.11%688636.SH智明达1.935.79%1.010.980.033.06%002151.SZ北斗星通00.00%1.591.550.042.58%603678.SH火炬电子6.347.14%1.851.810.042.21%688237.SH超卓航科1.185.60%0.470.460.012.17%600893.SH航发动力21.264.31%4.074.010.061.50%002446.SZ盛路通信00.00%2.162.130.031.41%600118.SH中国卫星21.038.48%18.6818.600.080.43%601698.SH中国卫通17.099.48%8.476.921.550.43%688281.SH华秦科技1.852.09%0.370.3700.00%002389.SZ航天彩虹00.00%1.191.20-0.01-0.83%300123.SZ亚光科技00.00%0.530.54-0.01-1.85%301213.SZ观想科技00.00%0.480.49-0.01-2.04%300775.SZ三角防务00.00%8.658.92-0.27-3.03%688297.SH中无人机4.924.93%1.051.10-0.05-4.55%688543.SH国科军工4.988.75%1.131.19-0.06-5.04%600765.SH中航重机9.785.75%2.602.76-0.16-5.80%002383.SZ合众思壮00.00%0.620.66-0.04-6.06%600435.SH北方导航7.115.57%1.061.13-0.07-6.19%688311.SH盟升电子1.674.74%0.440.47-0.03-6.38%300474.SZ景嘉微00.00%2.362.56-0.2-7.81%600967.SH内蒙一机6.44.98%1.671.82-0.15-8.24%300900.SZ广联航空00.00%0.530.58-0.05-8.62%300699.SZ光威复材00.00%1.551.72-0.17-9.88%（202510日-202514日（20253日-20257日）图表12：申万（2021）军工板块个股本周融券卖出额增减幅前五十情况融券余额占融券余额（万证券代码 证券名称 自由流通市本周期融券卖出额（万上周期融券卖出额（万融券卖出额比上周期增融券卖出额比上周期增元）值比例元）元）减量（万元）减幅603712.SH七一二90.020.01%132.681.60131.088192.50%300629.SZ新劲刚00.00%12.140.5611.582067.86%000768.SZ中航西飞00.00%219.7814.21205.571446.66%688543.SH国科军工40.260.01%24.072.1121.961040.76%688239.SH航宇科技63.520.01%22.302.2020.1913.64%600879.SH航天电子1439.670.05%1359.61158.461201.15758.01%002465.SZ海格通信00.00%584.7597.41487.34500.30%002446.SZ盛路通信00.00%59.7410.2949.45480.56%301050.SZ雷电微力00.00%143.4827.03116.45430.82%300045.SZ华力创通00.00%9.381.917.47391.10%002389.SZ航天彩虹00.00%125.7834.7691.02261.85%600391.SH航发科技74.730.01%24.377.4416.93227.55%000547.SZ航天发展00.00%21.556.7014.85221.64%688523.SH航天环宇36.830.01%19.976.7313.24196.73%300762.SZ上海瀚讯00.00%141.1150.2990.82180.59%600372.SH中航机载68.170.00%36.3513.4422.91170.46%600764.SH中国海防598.490.08%329.69164.39165.3100.55%688776.SH国光电气101.480.03%17.068.858.2192.77%000519.SZ中兵红箭00.00%203.76108.8594.9187.19%600184.SH光电股份25.690.01%25.5314.8110.7272.38%002414.SZ高德红外00.00%140.6081.6858.9272.14%002297.SZ博云新材00.00%1.921.190.7361.34%688297.SH中无人机519.250.05%200.03128.8071.2355.30%688439.SH振华风光36.460.01%18.6612.246.4252.45%002413.SZ雷科防务00.00%23.0917.006.0935.82%600038.SH中直股份1182.070.09%70.1455.7614.3825.79%002025.SZ航天电器00.00%151.60120.5331.0725.78%600590.SH泰豪科技60.960.01%25.4920.405.0924.95%000738.SZ航发控制00.00%334.08272.1261.9622.77%002151.SZ北斗星通00.00%40.0734.335.7416.72%600118.SH中国卫星2285.710.09%1306.001142.62163.3814.30%688122.SH西部超导2075.860.07%664.81653.3811.431.75%688636.SH智明达50.130.02%1.441.48-0.04-2.70%300101.SZ振芯科技00.00%35.1037.19-2.09-5.62%688629.SH华丰科技215.460.01%81.7297.24-15.52-15.96%300726.SZ宏达电子00.00%26.4431.51-5.07-16.09%300008.SZ天海防务00.00%32.5638.82-6.26-16.13%600967.SH内蒙一机360.980.03%72.9293.97-21.05-22.40%300775.SZ三角防务00.00%115.73166.59-50.86-30.53%600435.SH北方导航576.70.05%179.99260.38-80.39-30.87%600760.SH中航沈飞584.970.01%140.18203.26-63.08-31.03%600072.SH中船科技168.40.02%21.6531.56-9.91-31.40%002338.SZ奥普光电00.00%38.3958.85-20.46-34.77%600562.SH国睿科技411.830.04%19.9530.65-10.7-34.91%688002.SH睿创微纳824.920.03%161.48264.19-102.71-38.88%002179.SZ中航光电00.00%258.14451.49-193.35-42.82%300699.SZ光威复材00.00%225.69410.12-184.43-44.97%000733.SZ振华科技00.00%13.7925.46-11.67-45.84%601698.SH中国卫通246.30.01%74.35154.31-79.96-51.82%600990.SH四创电子16.680.00%0.250.52-0.27-51.92%（202510日-202514日（20253日-20257日）个股表现1383612.63%19.65%。证券代码证券名称一周涨跌幅（）年初至今涨跌幅（）002935.SZ天奥电子12.6323.4000547.SZ航天发展8.5428.73603261.SH立航科技7.39-1.76002214.SZ大立科技7.1043.41301213.SZ观想科技6.3138.65证券代码证券名称一周涨跌幅（）年初至今涨跌幅（）000638.SZ万方发展-19.6516.74300775.SZ三角防务-12.2214.07688239.SH航宇科技-11.8378.61300600.SZ国瑞科技-10.84110.78688776.SH国光电气-10.7187.67个股估值14PE的历史百分位数据看，13817PE40%PE处于历史偏低位置。图表15：国防军工板块（申万2021）个股估值证券代码证券名称PEPBPE历史百分位PB历史百分位601890.SH亚星锚链31.652.576%67%000733.SZ振华科技28.271.7515%41%300777.SZ中简科技33.033.0616%15%000768.SZ中航西飞64.883.1916%47%300008.SZ天海防务39.14.9117%63%002179.SZ中航光电29.513.221%10%600862.SH中航高科29.624.1625%47%688629.SH华丰科技143.5921.6626%92%000738.SZ航发控制47.461.9827%8%688002.SH睿创微纳46.066.0730%54%688636.SH智明达51.24.8330%50%688522.SH纳睿雷达93.085.0736%59%300775.SZ三角防务33.852.6436%19%600435.SH北方导航80.477.137%77%688510.SH航亚科技55.665.2338%64%600038.SH中直股份52.311.7338%2%600150.SH中国船舶35.891.8338%19%002625.SZ光启技术125.169.4543%80%600562.SH国睿科技53.145.1843%52%688281.SH华秦科技52.423.9145%25%600685.SH中船防务43.722.0647%32%600760.SH中航沈飞56.987.6748%69%300699.SZ光威复材43.634.2749%8%002023.SZ海特高新71.892.1150%21%688563.SH航材股份44.452.352%25%000576.SZ甘化科工57.452.7153%46%605123.SH派克新材34.131.8854%24%688122.SH西部超导53.36.5356%52%688543.SH国科军工53.284.4659%82%001270.SZ铖昌科技101.986.2959%40%688239.SH航宇科技52.014.9460%47%603267.SH鸿远电子43.232.4560%17%603678.SH火炬电子51.482.4263%11%600764.SH中国海防91.092.5766%15%300101.SZ振芯科技205.356.8966%37%688282.SH*ST导航168.873.4966%95%600372.SH中航机载71.691.5570%14%300965.SZ恒宇信通105.032.8471%75%300922.SZ天秦装备88.11471%66%300726.SZ宏达电子47.663.2772%25%002933.SZ新兴装备128.032.673%55%688552.SH航天南湖694.944.874%88%688685.SH迈信林142.6511.3275%94%688439.SH振华风光70.112.3276%22%600391.SH航发科技198.935.0777%69%600765.SH中航重机108.571.8578%9%600967.SH内蒙一机57.382.5285%56%300722.SZ新余国科139.5613.5487%77%002111.SZ威海广泰74.811.8187%21%688237.SH超卓航科1145.093.9189%80%688297.SH中无人机501.895.4990%50%301050.SZ雷电微力89.193.6290%17%300527.SZ中船应急739.672.9591%26%002985.SZ北摩高科157.793.6592%31%300696.SZ爱乐达181.923.8992%36%300629.SZ新劲刚255.52.8294%8%688375.SH国博电子97.826.7194%76%002651.SZ利君股份131.054.0394%59%300065.SZ海兰信346.327.4694%87%002389.SZ航天彩虹241.892.6794%44%688511.SH天微电子426.222.7895%38%300034.SZ钢研高纳95.873.4895%19%300719.SZ安达维尔465.714.0995%72%301357.SZ北方长龙1295.7512.396%95%600316.SH洪都航空648.284.4696%74%688682.SH霍莱沃306.165.2996%40%002414.SZ高德红外654.237.9897%85%601698.SH中国卫通353.435.7897%77%300395.SZ菲利华94.758.6197%87%600893.SH航发动力415.212.5398%30%300252.SZ金信诺580.383.9498%69%600118.SH中国卫星888.938.0498%67%002338.SZ奥普光电204.528.8799%91%002025.SZ航天电器244.143.0599%15%600879.SH航天电子184.081.73100%27%688523.SH航天环宇110.586.69100%81%002935.SZ天奥电子132.285.31100%94%688586.SH江航装备285.593.61100%33%三季报数据图表16：国防军工板块（申万2021）三季报数据Q1-3营业收 Q1-3营收同 Q1-3归母净 Q1-3归母同证券名称 证券代码入（亿元）比增速利润（亿元）比增速纵横股份688070.SH3.2257.01%-0.2062.93%中直股份600038.SH150.47-13.02%3.734.32%中无人机688297.SH15.48319.01%0.34扭亏中天火箭003009.SZ4.44-30.95%-0.29转亏中科海讯300810.SZ1.45-0.41%-0.7716.27%中简科技300777.SZ6.8428.46%2.9025.45%中航重机600765.SH77.763.35%6.16-39.21%中航西飞000768.SZ302.444.94%9.925.15%中航沈飞600760.SH206.07-18.54%13.62-25.10%中航机载600372.SH167.741.25%9.90-17.73%中航高科600862.SH37.61-1.56%8.06-11.59%中航光电002179.SZ158.3812.36%17.37-30.89%中海达300177.SZ6.83-7.48%-0.46-78.40%中光学002189.SZ10.31-32.25%-1.91-757.77%中国卫星600118.SH31.0285.28%0.15扭亏中国卫通601698.SH18.525.35%2.86-40.58%中国海防600764.SH19.252.80%1.543.43%中国船舶600150.SH1074.0391.21%58.52157.71%ST应急300527.SZ5.91-18.06%0.0858.96%中船科技600072.SH64.0126.30%-14.34-1931.02%中船防务600685.SH143.1512.83%6.55249.84%中兵红箭000519.SZ34.2425.95%-0.592.30%智明达688636.SH5.12145.16%0.82扭亏振芯科技300101.SZ7.3630.56%0.9330.79%振华科技000733.SZ39.264.98%6.23-3.31%振华风光688439.SH7.01-11.59%0.91-63.33%银河电子002519.SZ3.32-59.12%-0.40转亏亚星锚链601890.SH15.445.28%2.119.38%亚光科技300123.SZ6.67-8.64%-0.99-20.42%新余国科300722.SZ2.62-17.89%0.48-26.72%新兴装备002933.SZ2.49-18.75%0.2971.84%新劲刚300629.SZ2.70-33.18%0.11-90.04%星网宇达002829.SZ2.6614.97%0.38扭亏新光光电688011.SH0.41-39.57%-0.2331.77%兴图新科688081.SH0.9131.99%-0.45-5.71%西测测试301306.SZ2.25-27.90%-1.06-11.82%西部超导688122.SH39.8923.30%6.507.62%威海广泰002111.SZ22.9710.75%1.27-1.67%*ST万方000638.SZ1.7660.43%-0.09转亏*ST天微688511.SH1.2872.66%0.41550.37%天秦装备300922.SZ1.6811.73%0.282.25%天箭科技002977.SZ0.79-41.57%-0.26转亏天海防务300008.SZ31.4834.50%2.32202.12%天和防务300397.SZ2.67-3.36%-0.83-30.00%天奥电子002935.SZ5.36-7.12%0.15-4.51%泰豪科技600590.SH29.0312.40%0.49扭亏司南导航688592.SH2.3922.16%-0.23-189.27%ST思科瑞688053.SH1.4747.67%0.01-52.55%四创电子600990.SH10.41-4.64%-0.90-123.05%盛路通信002446.SZ9.4213.03%0.8426.49%陕西华达301517.SZ4.30-11.77%-0.14转亏上海瀚讯300762.SZ3.0572.72%-0.4847.25%三角防务300775.SZ12.47-8.51%3.7525.64%睿创微纳688002.SH40.8629.72%7.0746.21%全信股份300447.SZ6.52-16.64%0.32-46.24%七一二603712.SH11.92-25.92%-2.06-656.16%派克新材605123.SH26.818.04%2.37-3.84%内蒙一机600967.SH78.9411.07%3.866.18%纳睿雷达688522.SH2.5486.50%0.73181.28%盟升电子688311.SH2.48185.29%-0.4862.74%迈信林688685.SH4.4648.42%0.5655.17%利君股份002651.SZ4.88-11.36%0.87-28.01%*ST立航603261.SH1.44-3.32%-0.44-30.75%理工导航688282.SH1.29104.80%-0.0293.54%雷科防务002413.SZ9.3334.00%-0.9132.61%雷电微力301050.SZ6.90-41.10%1.57-58.07%科思科技688788.SH2.2117.81%-1.881.93%金信诺300252.SZ18.7517.89%0.0841.58%晶品特装688084.SH2.12211.05%0.11扭亏景嘉微300474.SZ4.9512.14%-0.73转亏捷强装备300875.SZ1.698.07%-0.23-146.20%江龙船艇300589.SZ5.09-59.03%-0.37转亏江航装备688586.SH6.37-19.51%0.42-68.97%霍莱沃688682.SH2.1514.27%0.07-31.98%火炬电子603678.SH26.9825.41%3.2041.76%华如科技301302.SZ1.572.55%-1.3947.95%华秦科技688281.SH8.018.63%2.43-21.48%华力创通300045.SZ5.6426.32%0.09扭亏华丰科技688629.SH16.59121.47%2.23扭亏鸿远电子603267.SH14.2722.27%2.2274.56%洪都航空600316.SH31.333.41%0.12-16.49%宏达电子300726.SZ14.0418.81%3.2725.07%合众思壮002383.SZ9.717.22%0.08扭亏恒宇信通300965.SZ1.4723.35%0.2633.71%航宇科技688239.SH15.177.40%1.46-1.07%航亚科技688510.SH5.301.95%0.78-16.04%航新科技300424.SZ14.152.77%0.18-7.31%航天南湖688552.SH5.85579.06%0.37扭亏航天环宇688523.SH3.0410.44%0.510.56%航天发展000547.SZ16.9742.59%-4.8912.38%航天电子600879.SH88.35-4.32%2.09-62.77%航天电器002025.SZ43.498.87%1.46-64.53%航天彩虹002389.SZ15.2318.02%0.06-1.67%航发控制000738.SZ39.68-