房地产 -泽西岛市场洞察 Jersey Market Insight - 2025 26

Jersey

MarketInsight

knightFrank

2025/26

KnightFrank’sin-depthlookattheJerseyresidentialpropertymarket’sperformanceandprospects.

knightfrank.co.uk/research

StabilityandopportunityontheedgeofEurope

Asglobaltaxreformreshapesmigrationpatterns,

Jersey’sblendoffinancialsophistication,natural

beautyandfavourablefiscalpolicycontinuestoattractinternationalwealthandanewgenerationofresidents.

Atatimeofshiftingtaxregimes

andheightenedglobaluncertainty,

Jerseystandsoutasasafeandstablejurisdiction.Itsfavourablefiscal

environment,thrivingfinancial

sectorandenviablequalityoflife

havefuelledrenewedinterestfrom

bothhigh-net-worthfamiliesandfirst-timebuyersalike.

Theself-governingCrown

Dependencyhasoperatedasan

internationalfinancecentreformore

thansixtyyears;thefinancesector

generatesabout40%oftheisland’s

goodsandservicesbyvalue–halfofthatisthroughbanking.

Thefinancesectorgrewby19.4%inrealtermsin2023,adding£459milliontotheeconomy,accordingtothelatestavailabledatafromJersey’sFiscal

PolicyPanel(FPP).Jersey’sregulatoryframeworkisparticularlysupportive

ofinnovativefundandinvestment

structures.Bymid2024,regulatedfundnetassetvaluestoodat£457.6billion,withstrongrepresentationfromprivateequity,privatedebtandventurecapital.

TRANSACTIONSRISING

Thisrisingconcentrationofhighearnersisfuellinggrowthatthetopendofthe

propertymarket.Therewere14sales

recordedat£6millionoraboveduringtheyearthroughAugust2025,accordingtoKnightFrankdata.Theseincluded

onesaleabove£30million,another

around£30million,andsixsalesabove£10million.Forcomparison,2023sawjusttwotransactionsabove£6million.

Theincreaseinactivityabove£3millionpushedtheaveragepriceofa4-bedroomhouseto£1.4millioninQ12025,upfrom£1.03millionduringthepreviousquarter,accordingtoStatisticsJersey.

Changestopersonalandproperty

taxationbysuccessiveUKgovernmentshavefurtherenhancedtheisland’s

popularityamongwealthyindividuals.

Labour’s2024reformstothenon-dom

regimeremovedthefavourableremittancebasisandreplaceditwithafour-year

residence-basedtaxexemptionfornewarrivals,afterwhichfullUKtaxation

onworldwideincomeapplies.Existinginheritancetaxandtrustprotectionsfor

14

Salesabove£7millionbetweenAugust2024andAugust2025,upfromjustonein2023

14%

Averagepricesremain14%belowtheQ32022peak,butactivityisrebounding

8%

Quarterlyriseintransactionvolumes,Q22025

non-domswillalsobereformedsothat

foreignassetsintrustsarebroughtwithintheUKtaxnetafterthisinitialperiod.

Therehasalsobeenspeculationaboutadditionaltaxrises,bothpersonalandproperty,addingtoJersey’sappealasalowtaxalternative.Theislandchargesa20%maximumpersonaltaxrate,andnocapitalgainsorinheritancetax.

HIGHVALUERESIDENCY

Buyingresidentialpropertyonthe

islandissubjecttopermissions,withpreferencegiventopeoplewhohavebeenresidentformorethantenyears.

However,therearework-relatedroutestopurchaseahomeontheislandtiedtohard-to-fillroles.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

(£)THOUSANDS

Fig2:Housepricesbypropertytype

Averageprice

1-BEDROOMFLATS——2-BEDROOMFLATS

2-BEDROOMHOUSES3-BEDROOMHOUSES4-BEDROOMHOUSES

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Source:StatisticsJersey,KnightFrankResearch

Fig1:Housepriceperformance,2022-2025Rebased,2002=100

——NONSEASONALLYADJUSTED

——SEASONALLYADJUSTED

300

/w'150

100

50

Source:StatisticsJersey,KnightFrankResearch

r\250

200

2JERSEYMARKETINSIGHT2025

Ultrahighnetworthindividuals

oftentakeadvantageoftheHighValue

Residencyscheme,whichgrantsboth

residencyandaccesstotheproperty

markettothoseabletodemonstrate

annualworldwideearningscomfortablyinexcessof£1,250,000andwealthofmore

than£10million.Successfulapplicants

alsocommittopurchasingpropertyworthatleast£3.5million.Anet15families

arrivedduringthefirstsixmonthsof2025,bringingthetotaltoaround250.

HVRarrivalstendtobediverseinage.Inthelastdecade,12%havebeenunder

39,15%havebeenaged40-49and42%

havebeenaged50-69.Applicantshave

shiftedyoungerinrecentyears,perhapsinpartduetochangesinworkingandlivinghabitsfollowingthepandemic.Almost

17%wereyoungerthan39in2024,whilemorethanafifthwereaged40-49.ThreequartersholdBritishpassports.

IndividualsmovingviatheHRV

schemehavebeentrendingwealthier

since2020.Averagewealthonapplicationin2024stoodat£135m,upfrom£48m

CAPITAL:STHELIER

LOCATION:BAYOFSTMALO.14MILESFROMFRANCEAND85MILESFROMTHEUK

POPULATION:104,000+

48MILESOFCOASTLINE,BEACHESANDBAYS

12FLIGHTSTOLONDONDAILY

ISLANDWIDEGIGABITBROADBANDNETWORK

Fig3:Salesbydwellingsize

1-BEDROOMFLATS2-BEDROOMFLATS

2-BEDROOMHOUSES3-BEDROOMHOUSES4-BEDROOMHOUSES

in2020.Perhapsunsurprisingly,theyareoptingforlarger,moreexpensivehomes,too.Theaveragepricepaidforproperty

reachedarecord£7.8millionin2024,

500

beatingthepreviousrecordof£6.3millionsetin2023.

400

RISINGRATES

300

Jersey’smainstreamhousingmarket

200

experiencedsteadygrowthinbothpricesandtransactionsduringthedecadeto

2021.GrowthbegantoslowastheBank

100

ofEnglandbeganraisingthekeyinterestratethrough2022and2023.Average

Q202025

Q4

2022

Q1

2023

Q2

2023

Q3

2023

Q1

2024

Q2

2024

Q3

2024

Q4

2024

Q1

2025

Q1

2022

Q2

2022

Q4

2023

Q3

2022

housepricesfell8.2%in2024,thelargestdeclinesince1986.Turnoverfelltoits

Source:StatisticsJersey,KnightFrankResearch

lowestlevelsince2022.Thedownturn

extendedtopropertiesvalueduptoabout£4million,whichareoverwhelmingly

Fig4:Propertysalesbypriceband

Transactions

2021202220232024

purchasedbydomesticbuyers.

400

300

200

100

Purchasingactivity,whichtendstoleadchangesinvalues,beganrecoveringinQ22024andinto2025.Transactionvolumesclimbed8%inthesecondquarterof2025comparedtothepreviousyear.There

were18%moretransactionsduringthe

yearthroughQ2comparedtotheprevioustwelvemonths.Still,thatputsactivitya

littlelessthanathirdbelowthequarterlyaveragebetween2021and2023.

Resurgenttransactionactivityhas

0

£0.4m-

£0.5m

£0.5m-

£0.6m

£0.6m-

£0.7m

£0.7m-

£0.8m

£0.8m-

£0.9m

£0.9m-£1m

£1m-£1.5m

£1.5m-£2m

>£2m

<£0.3m£0.3m-£0.4m

Source:StatisticsJersey,KnightFrankResearch

largelyhaltedfallsinvalues.TheaveragepriceofhomessoldinJerseywasstableduringtheyearendingQ22025compared

JERSEYMARKETINSIGHT20253

PercentageofHVRholderswitha

Britishpassport

76%

250

TotalfamilieswithHVR

Percentageof2024HVRarrivalsthatareunder60

72%

tothepreviousquarter.Valuesarenow14%belowtheQ32022peak.TheFPP’sMay2024forecastforhousepricesisforincreasesof2%in2025and2026.

First-timebuyersaretakingalargershareofpurchases,helpedbytheFirstStepAssistedHomeOwnershipScheme.Thesubsidyenableseligiblebuyersto

accessinterest-freeequityloansofupto40%ofaproperty’smarketvalue.

First-timebuyersaccountedfor34%oftransactionvolumesduring2024,up7%fromthepreviousyear.

RealGVA(grossvalueadded)growthisforecastataround0.4%in2025andaveraging1.0%peryearfrom2025to

2029,whichisbelowJersey’slong-termeconomictrend.Theislandmaybe

affectedbybroaderglobaleconomic

uncertainty,especiallyfromtrade

tensions,aslowdowninUKgrowthandpossibledisruptionsinglobalcapital

flows,theFPPnotedinitsMay2025

outlook.Thatsaid,ifglobalfinancial

instabilitypromptsinvestorstoseek

securejurisdictions,Jerseymaybenefitduetoitsreputationforstabilityand

strongregulation.

Fig5:AveragepricepaidforhomesbyHVRholders

£millions

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:LocateJersey

0

Fig6:TheriseinyoungHVRapplicants

Averageages

●39andbelow≈12.0%

●40–49≈14.8%

●50–59≈22.5%

●60–69≈19.7%

70andabove≈14.1%

12.0%

14.8%

19.7%

22.5%

14.1%

Lastdecade

16.7%

27.8%

22.2%

33.3%

2024

Source:LocateJersey

2016201720182019202020212022202320240

Source:LocateJersey

Fig7:AveragewealthofHVRholders

£millions

150

120

90

60

30

Welikequestions,ifyou’vegotoneaboutourresearch,orwouldlikesomepropertyadvice,we

wouldlovetohearfromyou.

TomBill

Partner,HeadofUKResidentialResearch+442078611492

tom.bill@

FilipJendruh

ChannelIslands–SeniorRelationshipManager

+442081769715

filip.jendruh@

AimeeSinclair-Horgan

Director,KnightFrankJersey+4401534877977

aimee.sinclair-horgan@

OliverRodbourne

Headof