房地产 -广州写字楼市场报告 Guangzhou office market report - Q3 2025

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GuangzhouGrade-AOfficeMarketReport

Q32025

ThisreportfocusesontheGrade-AofficemarketinGuangzhou,

includinginformationaboutsupplyanddemand,rents,vacancyratesandtheofficeinvestmentmarket

/research

OverviewandOutlook

Supplypeakswhiledemandeasesamiddeceleratingrecovery

InQ32025,Guangzhou’sGrade-A

officemarketexperiencedasurge

insupplyalongsidesoftening

demand.Sany-RootcloudPlaza,

HaihaoInternationalTower,SkyviewPlaza,andGrancentralCenterwere

completedinquicksuccession,

collectivelydeliveringapproximately320,000sqm—thehighestquarterly

additioninnearlyadecade.This

pushedthecitywidestockabove10

millionsqmforthefirsttime.However,Netabsorptionreachedonly19,032

sqm,causingthevacancyrateupby

1.2percentagepointsto16.2%.At

thepricinglevel,theaveragerentin

Guangzhou’sofficemarketdeclinedby3.1%toRMB120.7persqmpermonth,reflectingaslowerrecoverypace

comparedtoQ2.

Thisquarter,multiplesimultaneousprojectlaunchesdroveapronouncedjumpinsupply,whiledemand

wasdominatedbyrelocationsandreconfigurationwithintheexistingtenantbase,withlimitednetnewexpansion.Asaresult,thegap

betweennetabsorptionandnew

supplywidened.Bysector,Financials(37.9%)ledtake-up—drivenmainlybyinvestmentbanks,commercial

banks,andback-officeexpansions.

ProfessionalServices(16.5%)

remainedresilient,supportedby

steadydemandfromconsultancies

andlawfirms.Manufacturing(14.3%)returnedtothetopthree,ledby

activeconsumer-goodschainssuch

asbeautyandmother-&-babybrands.Conversely,TMT(13.0%)softened.Bydealtype,relocationsaccountedfor

72.3%(ofwhich57.1%wereupgrade

relocations),underscoringa“flight-to-quality”trend.Leaserestructurings

roseto9.7%—nowthesecond-largestcategory—highlightinghowmore

flexibletermsareunlockingdemand.Newset-ups(2.9%)andnewleases

(6.4%)contractedfromthepreviousquarter,indicatingstill-weak

incrementaldrivers.

Ontheinvestmentfront,onenotabletransactionwasrecorded:

YuexiuREITannouncedthesaleofa50%interestinYuexiuFinancialTowertoitsaffiliate,Guangzhou

YuexiuDevelopmentGroupCo.,Ltd.,alongsideaninternalreorganization.ThetotalconsiderationamountedtoRMB3.433124billionforthecombinedexternaldisposal(50%)andinternal

restructuring(50%),withcompletionbytheendofthereportingperiod.

LookingaheadtoQ4,somepent-updemandislikelytobereleased.Withleasingprogressatselectprojects,

transactionvolumesshouldimproveQoQ.However,withsupplystill

elevatedandnegotiationstaking

longer,citywideGrade-Arentsare

expectedtoremainunderpressure,

thoughthedeclinemaynarrow.Net

absorptionispoisedtorecover,yet

withgivencontinuedincomingsupplyandnoclearaccelerationinsectoral

growthengines,thevacancyrate

willlikelystayflattoslightlyhigher.TenantsareadvisedtoleveragetheQ4negotiationwindowtostructureleasetermsthatoptimizetotaloccupancycostandflexibilityacrossthelease

cycle.

Fig1:GuangzhouGrade-Aofficemarketreferenceindex[1]

2025Q3

NetAbsorption

19,032

sqm

2025Q3Rent

120.7

RMB/sqm/month

2025Q3

Vacancyrate

16.2%

2025Q3Newsupply

320,000

sqm

自

QoQchange:

Outlook(Q42025):

QoQchange:3.1%

Outlook(Q42025):

QoQchange:

Outlook(Q42025):

QoQchange:1.2%

Outlook(Q42025):

Source:KnightFrankResearch[1]Rentreferstoaverageeffectiverent

Fig2:GuangzhouofficedeveIopmentpipeIine,2025-2027

●Pazhou

●FinancialCity●Baietan

●GuangzhouSouthStation●ZhujiangNewTown

‘000sqm

1,500

1,000

500

2025202620270

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:Projectedsupplyin2025includesprojectsalreadyonthemarket

RentalLevel

Rentscontinuedtosoften

InQ32025,Guangzhou’sGrade-A

officerentscontinuedtosoften,falling3.1%QoQtoRMB120.7persqmper

month—awiderdeclinecomparedtoQ2.

Bysubmarket,Pazhouledthe

declinewitha4.6%QoQdrop,drivenbynewprojectslaunchespriced

belowtheareaaverageanddeeper

incentives,suchaslongerrent-free

periodsandfit-outsupport.ZhujiangNewTownrentsfell3.4%QoQasexitsbylargeTMToccupiersandintensifiedlike-for-likecompetitionexpanded

negotiationroom.TianheNorthandYuexiusawsmallreboundsfollowingsharpadjustmentslastquarter,

reflectingthesupportofmaturelocationsandstabletenantbases.

Despitenewsupply,rentmovementinFinancialCitywasrelativelymild,underpinnedbyeffectivepre-leasingandanimprovingtenantmix.

LookingaheadtoQ4,withnew

supplycontinuingtomaterializeandtransactionsstilldrivenbyincentives,

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Fig3:GuangzhouGrade-AofficerentaItrend

RMB/sqm/month

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:KnightFrankResearch

citywiderentswilllikelyremainsoft.Any“price”recoveryismorelikelytobereflectedinimprovedrent-freeandfit-outtermsratherthanhigherface

rents.TheoveralldeclinemaynarrowslightlycomparedtoQ3.

Source:KnightFrankResearch

TabIe1:MajorGuangzhouGrade-Aofficesub-marketindicators,Q32025

Submarket

RentRMB/sqm/mth

RMB/sqm/day

Rental%

changes(QoQ)

Vacancy

Rate

Vacancyrate

percentagechange

(QoQ)

TianheNorth

117.8

3.9

↑0.9%

7.2%

↓0.4%

ZhujiangNewTown

136.6

4.5

↓3.4%

13.8%

↑1.4%

Yuexiu

102.1

3.4

↑1.3%

10.4%

↑1.9%

Pazhou

107.4

3.5

↓4.6%

22.4%

↓1.5%

FinancialCity

93.5

3.1

↓2.0%

35.3%

↓12.5%

SupplyandDemand

Quarterlynewsupplyhitarecordhigh,whiledemandmomentumremainedweak

InQ3,supply-demandmismatch

intensifiednoticeably.Sany-RootcloudPlaza,HaihaoInternationalTower,

SkyviewPlaza,andGrancentralCenteralllaunchedthisquarter,collectivelyaddingapproximately320,000sqm—markinganearten-yearhighfora

singlequarter.Incontrast,demand

weakenedfurther,withnetabsorptionofonly19,032sqm,pushingthe

vacancyby1.2percentagepointsQoQto16.2%.

Bydemandcomposition,

Financials,ProfessionalServices,

andManufacturingwerethemaindrivers.Financials(37.9%)surged,drivenbyheadcountconsolidationandexpansionbyinvestment

banks,commercialbanks,and

back-officeteams.Professional

Services(16.5%)remainedresilient,supportedbysteadycontributionsfromconsultanciesandlawfirms.

Manufacturing(14.3%)re-entered

thetopthreeledbyactive

consumer-goodschainsinthebeautyandmother-&-babysegments.Notably,thepreviouslydominantTMTsector

(13.0%)weakenedthisquarter,slippingtofourthplace.

Bytransactiontype,relocations

accountedfor72.3%,with57.1%

beingupgraderelocations,

reflectingtheprevailingstrategyof“same-price-for-better-quality”or

“modestpremiumforbetterquality.”

Fig4:GuangzhouGrade-AofficesuppIy,take-upandvacancyrate

Grade-Aofficesupply(left)Grade-Aofficenetabsorption(left)Vacancyrate(right)

‘000sqm

25%

600

20%

500

15%

400

300

10%

200

5%

100

020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420250%

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Notes:ThesupplyandnetabsorptionofGradeAofficespacein2025isaccumulated

The2025vacancyrateisforQ3

700

Leaserestructuringsclimbedto

secondplaceat9.7%,largelydueto

landlordsofferingmmoreflexible

termstomaintainoccupancyand

retaintenants.Newset-ups(2.9%)andnewleases(6.4%)declinedsignificantlyfromlastquarter,indicatinga

temporarypullbackinincremental

demandasoccupiersfocusonportfolioreconfiguration.

LookingtoQ4,withpent-updemandgraduallyreleasingandelevated

supplypersisting,dealvolumesare

expectedtoimproveQoQ.However,

givenongoingdestockingpressure

andlengtheningnegotiationcycles,

thesupply-demandgapwilllikely

narrowonlyslowly.Leasingdemand

isexpectedtopickupnotably,but

vacancyratesmayremainbroadlyflatoredgehigher.Transactionswilllikelycontinuetofocusontermoptimizationandstockreconfiguration.

TabIe2:MajorGuangzhouGrade-AofficeIeasingtransactions,Q32025

DistrictBuildingTenantArea(sqm)TransactionType

ZhujiangNewTown

YuexiuFinancialTower

HSBCITDept.

5,000

Relocation

Pazhou

JOYYTower

Forcallure

2,200

Relocation

ZhujiangNewTown

GuangzhouInternationalFinanceCenter

CMBWingLungBank

1,666

LeaseRestructuring

ZhujiangNewTown

CentralTower

J.P.Morgan

1,200

Relocation

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:alltransactionsaresubjecttoconfirmation

InvestmentMarket

Related-partydisposalspairedwithrefinancingwhilecapital-structureoptimizationinfocus

InQ32025,Guangzhou’sGrade-Aofficeinvestmentmarketsawa

landmarkrelated-partydisposal

coupledwithrefinancing.YuexiuREITannouncedthetransfera50%interestinYuexiuFinancialTowertoitsaffiliate,GuangzhouYuexiuDevelopmentGroupCo.,Ltd.,

alongsideaninternalrestructuringandnewbankfinancing.ThetotalconsiderationwasRMB3.433124

billion,representingtheaggregatepricefortheexternal50%disposalandtheinternal50%restructuring.

Completionoccurredbytheendofthereportingperiod.Thetransactionaimstoreshapetheequitystructureand

replenishliquiditytooptimizecapitalstructure,reduceoverallfinancing

costs,andstrengthenmedium-tolong-termfinancialresilienceand

cash-flowstability.

Tosupportthetransaction,

theREITsecuredanewfinancing

commitmentofuptoRMB4.0billionfromanindependentthird-partybank.Proceedswillrefinanceexistingdebt

andtopupworkingcapital.Thefacilityissecuredprimarilybyamortgageoverthesubjectpropertyandapledgeoverreceivablerents,withacomfortletterfromGuangzhouYuexiuproviding

creditenhancement.Followingreceiptoftheconsiderationandthenew

financing,leverageisexpectedtofallfrom48.1%toaround41.2%,improvingdebtmaturityprofileandliquidity

buffers.

Fromamarketperspective,amidtighterbalance-sheetconstraints

andelevatedexternaluncertainty,leadingandstate-backedplayersareprioritizingintra-groupasset

re-allocationandunlockingfinancingattributesofownedassets—with

debtdurationmanagementand

interest-burdenreductionasprimarygoals.Traditionalcross-partyM&A

focusedoninvestmentreturnshas

temporarilyreceded.LookingintoQ4,evenifglobalmonetarypolicyeases

marginally,riskappetiterecoveryis

likelytoremaincautious.Assuch,

user/near-useracquisitions,equity

restructurings,andsale-and-leasebackorotherfinancing-oriented

transactionsshouldremain

mainstream.Third-partyfinancial

investorswillstayhighlyselectiveonpricingandassetquality,anddealflowwillremainstructuralandbespoke.

GuangzhouGrade-AofficemarketdashboardQ32025

GuangzhouGrade-Aofficeinventory,rentsandvacancyratesofmajorbusinessdistricts

Inventory:2,309

Rents:107.4

VR:22.4%

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:unitformarketinventory–1,000sqm;rentsusingaverageeffectiverentatRMB/sqm/month;VRreferstoaveragevacancyrate.

Grade-Aoffice

TotalInventoryapprox.

10,017

thousandsqm

ZhujiangNewTown

Inventory:4,464

Rents:136.6

VR:13.8%

TianheNorth

Inventory:1,587

Rents:117.8

VR:7.2%

FinancialCity

Inventory:526

Rents:93.5

VR:35.3%

Inventory:1,131

Rents:102.1

VR:10.4%

●Pazhou

●Yuexiu

Welikequestions,ifyou’vegotoneaboutourresearch,orwouldlikesomepropertyadvice,wewouldlovetohearfromyou.

Research&ConsultancyGuangzhouOffice

Strategy&Solutions

ReginaYang

Director,HeadofResearch&Consultancy,Shanghai&Beijing

+8613918723123

regina.yang@

HenryChen

Analyst,Research&Consultancy,Shenzhen

+8613642314481

henry.chen@

MartinWong

SeniorDirector,

HeadofResearch&Consultancy,GreaterChina

+85228467184

martin.wong@

KenKan

ManagingDirector,Shenzhen

HeadofOfficeStrategy&Solutions,SouthChina

+8618666825418

ken.kan@

AaronHuang

Director,

HeadofOfficeStrategy&Solutions,Guangzhou

+8616658010718

aaron.huang@

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