房地产 -2026年中国投资者意向调查 2026 China Investor Intentions Survey

IntelligentInvestment

2026

CBRE

InvestorBuyingandsellingIntentions

Buyingandsellingappetitestrengthenslightly

chinaInvestmentsentiment

usellmoreBuymore●Netpurchasingintentions

Netpurchasingntentions

TopconcernsandDrivers

challenges

Tailwinds

68%

47%

60%

55%

Fearofrecession

uncertaingeopoliticallandscape

Attractivepriceentrypoints

Loweringofdebtcost

preferredstrategiesandsectors

Growingpreferenceforcoreandcore-plus

investmentstrategies

TOPThreesectorsforInvestment

nnnnl

Industrial&RentalHousingRetail

Logistics

TOPAlternativesectorsforInvestment

studentaccommodation

23%

26%

44%29%

28%

Infrastructure

Lifescienceandhealthcare

MostpopularcitiesforInvestmentandMostpreferredAssetclasses

22%Beijing

46%

%ofresponsesnamingthatcityastheirpreferreddestination

sharechange(vs2025)

L_RentalHousing

房retai

Hotels

9%china:otherTierll/

Illcities

64%shanghai

2%Guangzhouv

2%shenzhenv

.。Datacentres

ESG

63%havemaintainedorraised

theimportanceofESGintheir

investmentdecisions

66%wouldbewillingtopayapremiumforanESGCertified

83%haveadoptedorplantoadopt

ESGcriteriaintheirinvestment

decisions

63%

66%

83%

CBRERESEARCH

ThisreportwaspreparedbythecBREchinaResearchTeam,whichformspartofcBREResearchanetworkofpreeminentresearcherswhocollaboratetoproviderealestatemarketresearchandeconometricforecastingtorealestateinvestorsandoccupiersaroundtheglobe.

.whilewedonotdoubtitsaccuracy,wehavenotverifieditandmakenoguarantee,warrantyorrepresentationaboutit.Itisyourresponsibilitytoconfirmindependentlyitsaccuracyandcompleteness.

keyFindings

Executivesummary

Industrial&logistics,rentalhousing,andretailproperties

remainthetopthreepreferredassetclasses.Amongalternativeassets,interestinstudenthousingandinfrastructure

strengthenedsignificantlyinthisyear'ssurvey.

whilepricingexpectationsformostpropertytypesimproved

comparedto2025,investorsaremostoptimisticaboutthepriceoutlookfordatacentres.

shanghairemainsthetopdestination,whileinvestorsareshowingstrongerinterestintierIlandtierIllcities.

•CBRE's2026chinaInvestorIntentionssurveywasconductedbetween

November10andDecember12,2025.Atotalof101responseswerecollectedandusedbycBREtoanalyseinvestors'perspectivesandstrategicpreferences

towardthechinacommercialrealestateinvestmentmarketin2026.

•overallinvestorsentimentremainscautious,withtheproportionsofrespondentsselecting"buymore"and"sellmore"increasingslightlyfromlastyear.

ESG

83%ofinvestorshavealreadyincorporatedorplanto

incorporateESGintotheirinvestmentdecisions.Green

buildings,renewableenergyfacilities,andgreenfinancingremainthemostvaluedESGinitiatives.

whiletwo-thirdsofinvestorsrecognisethepremiumassociatedwithESGassets,theyhavebecomemoreprudentregardingtheextentofsuchpremiums.

•Drivenbyastrongerappetiteamonginstitutionalinvestorsandrealestatefunds,domesticinvestors'netinvestmentintentionsturnedfromnegativetopositiveinthisyear'ssurvey.

•Althoughmacroeconomicuncertaintyremainstheprimarychallenge,the

correctionandsubsequentimprovementinassetpriceexpectations,coupledwithlowerfinancingcosts,shouldfurtherbolstermarketactivityin2026.

•Rentalhousingandretailpropertiesremainthemostpopularsectors.Interestinlogisticsincreasedthisyearasfacilitiesineastandmid-westchinaentera

cyclicalwindowofopportunity.

•ThefurtherexpansionofunderlyingassetclassesforpublicREITsisexpectedtohaveapositiveimpactontransactionliquidityandpricediscoverymechanismsforofficebuildingsandhotels.

IntelligentInvestment2026ChinaInvestorIntentionsSurvey

4CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

contents

01InvestorIntentions

02Investmentstrategies

03FinancingEnvironment

04ESG

05Respondentprofile

IntelligentInvestment2026ChinaInvestorIntentionsSurvey

6CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Marketsentimentremainscautiousbut

domesticnetinvestmentintentionsturn

positive

Investorsremaincautiousin2026,with43%ofrespondentsintendingtobuymoreand52%planningtosellmore.Bothfiguresincreasedslightlyy-0-y,suggestingapotential

strengtheningoftransactionappetitein2026.

whilethemarketcontinuestowitnessnetsellingintentions,sentimentamongdifferentinvestortypesisdiverging.Netinvestmentintentionsforinstitutionalinvestorsandrealestatefundsreboundedinthisyear'ssurvey,whiledevelopersunderliquiditypressureexhibitedevenstrongernetsellingintentionscomparedtothepreviousyear.

CBREtransactiondatasupportthistrend,withchinacommercialrealestateinvestmentvolumereachingRMB254.7billionin2025.InstitutionalinvestorsandrealestatefundscontributedacombinedRMB107.8billionfora42%share,whiledevelopers'transactionvolumedroppedtoahistoricallowof13%.

Regardinginvestororigin,strongerappetiteamonginstitutionalinvestorsandrealestate

fundsensureddomesticinvestors'netinvestmentintentionsturnedfromnegative(-20%)topositive(+7%)in2026.Foreigninvestorscontinuedtodisplaystrongnetsellingintentions.

Figure1:BuyingandsellingIntentions2016-2026

Buymore——sellmore

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Figure2:NetpurchasingIntentions1

ByinvestortypeBydomesticloverseas2

60%

40%

●

tintentionsof

domestic/overseasinvestorswasn=70.

source:2026andpreviousyears'chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

Netpurchasingintentions(2025)

Netpurchasingintentions(2026)

-20%

-40%

-60%

20%

IntelligentInvestment2026ChinaInvestorIntentionsSurvey

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Risinginterestinrealestatedrivenby

assetpricecorrectionsanddistressedopportunities

Investors'appetiteforrealestateincreasedinthisyear'ssurvey,with39%ofrespondents

planningtoexpandtheirallocationsin2026,representinga3-pps.increasefromthepreviousyear.some12%ofrespondentsintendtosubstantiallyincreasetheirrealestateallocations

thisyear,ariseof6pps.fromthepreviousyear'ssurvey,withinstitutionalinvestorsandrealestatefundsshowingthestrongestintentions.

Amongthefactorsdrivinginvestorstoincreasetheirallocations,"reasonableprice

adjustment"retaineditspositionasthetopreason,with72%ofinvestorsselectingthis

option,anincreaseof16-pps.comparedtothe2025survey.CBREestimatesthatthecapitalvaluesofGradeAofficebuildings,retailproperties,andhigh-standardlogisticsfacilitiesinmajortierIandtierIlcitiesinchinacorrectedbyanaverageofapproximately30%duringthethreeyearsfrom2023to2025,significantlyenhancingthepriceappealofprime

commercialrealestate.

"Moredistressedopportunities"rosefromfourthtosecondplaceinthisyear'ssurvey,with49%ofrespondentsidentifyingitasakeydriver.some62%ofrealestatefundsand57%ofdeveloperscitedthisasamajorreasonforincreasingtheirallocations.In2025,the

transactionvolumeofdistressedassetsinchinareachedRMB40.7billionasnon-realestateenterprisesandprivateinvestorsturnedmoreacquisitivealongsidepropertycompaniesandrealestatefunds.office,retail,andhotelpropertiesintierIandtierIlcitiesareexpectedtoremainthefocalpointsforinvestorsseekingdistressedassetsin2026.

Figure3:ExpectedAllocationstoRealEstatein2026

outerring:2026

Innerring:2025

source:2026andpreviousyears'chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

IntelligentInvestment2026ChinaInvestorIntentionsSurvey

8CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

challengesandopportunitiesco-exist:

macrouncertaintyandrecord-highyieldspreads

Investorsonceagainidentified"macroeconomicuncertainty"astheprimaryriskforchina'scommercialrealestateinvestmentmarketin2026.Respondentsgenerallyidentified"fearofarecession"(68%)and"uncertaingeopoliticallandscape"(47%)asthetopchallenges.while"tariffimplications"wasaddedasanewriskoptionthisyear,itdidnotrankamongthetop

fivechallenges.ThisisduetotheperceivedlowerlikelihoodoftarifffrictionfollowingthekualaLumpurconsultationsbetweenchinaandtheu.s.,aswellasthedominanceof

domesticcapitalinchina'scommercialrealestateinvestmentmarket.

Thesurveyfoundthatthemajortailwindsfortransactionactivityin2026are"attractivepriceentrypoints"(60%)and"loweringofdebtcosts"(55%).CBREestimatesthespreadbetweentheaveragecaprateandborrowingcostsforGradeAofficebuildings,retailproperties,andlogisticsfacilitiesinchinatierIcitieshasreached280-300bps.Thisrepresentsahistorical

highforyieldspreadsinchina'scommercialrealestateinvestmentmarketandranksthecountryaboveothermajormarketsinAsiapacific.

Figure4:MajorchallengesFacingRealEstateInvestmentin2026

Fearofarecession

uncertaingeopoliticallandscape

weaktenantdemand

weakerthanexpected

economicperformancein

mainlandchina

Mismatchinbuyerandsellerexpectations

source:2026chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

39%

68%

42%

33%

47%

Figure5:MajorTailwindsFacingRealEstateInvestmentin2026

Attractivepriceentrypoints

Loweringofdebtcosts

Reducedsupplypipeline

Need/mandatetodeploy

capital

Greaterpricealignment

betweenbuyersandsellers

60%

45%

27%

55%

31%

IntelligentInvestment2026ChinaInvestorIntentionsSurvey

10CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Logistics,rentalhousingandretail

remaintopthreemostpreferredassetclasses

Investorpreferenceforassetclassesremainsconsistentwithlastyear'srankings.

Logisticscontinuestobethemostpopularassetclass,with96%ofinvestorsfocusingonthissectorinmajormarkets.Theresilienceofdemandforhigh-standardlogisticsfacilitieswas

evidencedbyrecord-highnetabsorptionin2025despitethenegativeimpactoftariffrelatedtension.withthesupplypeakapproachinganend,thesupply-demandbalanceinthemid-

westandeastchinaleasingmarketisexpectedtoimprovefurtherin2026.Asreplacementcostsincertaincitiesareapproachingorevenexceedingassetvaluations,thelogistics

sectorispoisedtoenteracyclicalwindowofinvestmentopportunityin2026.

Rentalhousingrankedsecondforthefourthconsecutiveyear.Benefitingfromitsdefensivequalitiesandtheestablishmentoftheprivate-to-publicREITsexitchannel,transaction

volumeforrentalhousingreachedahistoricalhighofRMB11.9billionin2025.Investmentisexpectedtomaintainmomentumthisyear,asincreasedgovernmentsupportforurban

renewalprojectsprovidesthemarketwithmorevalue-addinvestmentopportunities.

Retailretaineditspositionasthethirdmostpopularsector,withinstitutionalinvestors

namingittheirtopassetclassfor2026.RetailpropertyinvestmentvolumereachedarecordhighRMB83.9billionin2025,withactivitysettoremainupbeatinthecomingyear.In

additiontoregionalshoppingcentres,communityretailservinghigh-frequencydaily

consumptionandoutletswithstrongdestination-shoppingattributeswillbemostsought-afterbyinvestors.

Figure6:preferredAssetclassforInvestment

source:2026chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

Figure7:preferredAssetclassbyInvestorType

x1

2

#3

RealEstateFunds

Industrial&logistics

Rentalhousing

Retail

InstitutionalInvestors

Retail

Industrial&logistics

Rentalhousing

Developers

Industrial&logistics

office

Retail

11CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Datacentrepriceoutlookmost

optimistic;pricingexpectationsformost

assettypesimprove

whilemostinvestorsexpecttoseefurtherdiscountstoassetpricesin2026,pricing

expectationsformostsectorswiththeexceptionoffactoriesandR&Dfacilitiesimprovedcomparedto2025,signalingthatassetvaluationsaregraduallyapproachingthecyclical

bottom.

Datacentreswereassignedthemostpositiveoutlook,with57%ofinvestorsexpectingassetpricestoremainstableorcommandapremiumin2026.ThisoptimismisprimarilydrivenbytheexplosivegrowthindemandforAIcomputingpower,thescarcityofenergyquotasandlicensingresourcesincorecities,andthesector'sappealtoinvestorsthroughlong-term

leasesandstablecashflows.

priceexpectationsforshoppingmallsshowedthemostsignificantimprovementfromthe

previousyear,withtheproportionofinvestorsexpectingpricestoremainstableorincreaserisingfrom24%to40%.ThistrendiscorroboratedbytheperformanceofthepublicREIT

market,inwhichtheNAvpremiumrateforshoppingmall-focusedREITsstoodat38%attheendof2025,trailingonlythe43%recordedbydatacentres.

priceexpectationsforhotelsandGradeAofficebuildingsexhibitedvaryingdegreesof

improvementinthisyear'ssurvey.Inlate2025,thechinasecuritiesRegulatorycommission(CSRC)andNationalDevelopmentandReformcommission(NDRC)releasedsuccessive

circularstoexpandtheunderlyingassetclassesofpublicREITstoincludeofficebuildingsandhotels;measureswhichareexpectedtohaveapositiveimpactontransactionliquidityandassetpricediscoverymechanisms.

Figure8:Investors'priceExpectationsbysectorin2026comparedto2025

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

source:2026andpreviousyears'chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

12CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Newruleslowernetcashdividendyield

requirementsforpublicREITS,

bolsteringpre-REITinvestmentFigure9:ReasonablecapRateRangebysectorin2026(GreenRepresentscoreRange)

GradeAofficeinTierIcities

26%

3%

GradeAofficeinTierII/Ilcities

16%

Logistics

inTierIcities

24%

22%

11%

5.276.58%

Logistics

inTierII/Ilcities

21%

24%

24%

5.318.05%

Retailproperties

inTierIcities

27%

24%

15%

2%

5.217.26%

Retailproperties

inTierII/Ilcities

2%

14%

22%

5.777.26%

RentalhousinginTierIcities

26%

16%

4%

4.194.91%

RentalhousinginTierII/Ilcities

18%

27%

18%

4.595.32%

Businesspark/R&Dfacilities

21%

24%

15%

2.979.19%

Factories

22%

24%

22%

17%

5.348.48%

Datacentres

15%

17%

23%

27%

7.507.56%

Hotels

21%

20%

22%

20%

Responsestosurveyquestionsonreasonablecapraterangelargelyreflectcurrentmarketpricingdifferentialsacrossassetclasses,drivenbyvariationsinleasingfundamentals,assetliquidity,andcitytiers.

comparingthesefindingswithpublicREITmarketpricing,CBREfoundthatprivateand

publicmarketscurrentlymaintainayieldspreadofapproximately25-100bps,particularlyforprojectsintierIlandtierIllcities.

Attheendoflastyear,theshanghaiandshenzhenstockExchangesreleasedtheGuidelinesfortheApplicationofRulesforpubliclyofferedRealEstateInvestmentTrusts(REITS)NO.1Reviewconcerns(Trial).Forrealestateprojectsprimarilyreliantonleaseincome,the

guidelinesstipulatethattheprojectedannualnetcashdividendyieldforthenexttwoyearsshould,inprinciple,benolessthan150bpsabovethe10-yearTreasurybondyieldasofthevaluationdate,

withthe10-yearTreasuryyieldrecentlyfluctuatingbetween1.8%and1.9%,andconsideringexpectationsforinterestratecutsthisyear,therequirednetcashdividendyieldfor

underlyingassetsofupcomingpublicREITsiseffectivelyreducedby40-50bpsfromtheoriginal3.8%threshold.CBREexpectstheresultingmoreattractivespreadbetweentheprivateandpublicmarketstofurthercatalyseinvestmentactivityinpre-REITS.

publicREITsunderlyingassets

capraterange3

4.5%-5.0%5.0%-5.5%5.5%-6.0%6.0%-6.5%6.5%-7.0%Above7.0%

Note3.capratesarecalculatedbasedonthelatestvaluationsoftheunderlyingassetsandthemostrecentavailablefullyearNetoperatingIncome(Nol)forecasts.IncaseswhereindividualprojectNOIdataareunavailable,aggregateddatafrompublicREITS'underlyingassetsisused.Forretailproperties,the

statisticalscopeexcludesspecificsubsectorssuchaswetmarkets,communityretail,andoutlets.NOIfiguresdonotaccountforcapitalexpenditures.source:2026chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

13CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

surgeininterestforstudenthousingandinfrastructure

sciences.

Estimatesbasedon2022datapublishedbychina'SMinistryofEducationindicatetheaveragedormitoryareaperstudentinchina(includingthoseunderconstruction)isapproximately4sq.m.,farbelowthestandard4of10-20sq.m..withthetotalnumberofuniversitystudentsnationwide

increasingbyover4millioninthepastthreeyears,thesupply-demandgapiswidening.nearly2024,sevengovernmentauthoritiesincludingtheNDRC,jointlyissuedadocumentencouraginguniversitiestosupplementtheirdormitoryresourcesbypurchasingorleasingsocialhousingsuchasnearbytalentapartmentsandcommercial-residentialbuildings.Institutionssuchaszhejianguniversity,Hubeiuniversity,andcentralsouth

universitysubsequentlyleasedoracquiredexistingpropertiesforuseasstudenthousing.

Market-orientedstudenthousinginvestmentinchinaremainsatanearlystage.Althoughcurrentsupply-demandfundamentalsofferanoptimisticoutlook,investorsmustexploreandinnovatepathwaysforjointventuresandcooperationgiventhepublic-sectorstatusofmostdomestic

universities.Intheshortterm,strategiessuchasbuild-to-suitdeliveryormasterleasingmaybethemostfeasiblerouteforinvestors.

Figure10:InvestorInterestinAlternativeAssetclasses

w20262025w2024

studentaccommodation

Infrastructure

Lifesciencesandhealthcare-relatedassets

Retirementliving/seniorhousing

Realestatedebt

Note4.Accordingtothe"BuildingAreaIndicatorsforordinaryInstitutionsofHigherEducation,"therequireddormitorybuildingareasforundergraduate,master's,anddoctoralstudentsare10sq.m,15sq.m,and20sq.m.perstudent,respectively.

source:2026andpreviousyears'chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

14CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Growingpreferenceforcoreandcore-

plusinvestmentstrategies

Theproportionofinvestorsfavouringcoreandcore-plusstrategiesincreasedsignificantlyinthisyear'ssurvey,reachingacombined58%,up11-pps.from2025.Thisshiftunderscoresthehighpriorityinvestorsareplacingoncashflowstability.

Riskappetiteforofficeandlogisticstightenedfurtherthisyearduetoslowerleasingactivity,promptinginvestorstoremainfocusedoncoreassetswithincreasinglyattractivepricing.

Riskappetiteforretailpropertiesisthemostpolarised.one-thirdofrespondentsselectedopportunisticanddistressedassetstrategiesforthissector,reflectingtheiroptimism

towardsenhancingassetperformancethroughproactiveoperations.

unlikeotherpropertytypes,value-addedstrategiesarepreferredforrentalhousingandhotels.Thefunctionalrepositioningandupgradingofassetssuchasconvertingofficeorcommercialpropertiesintorentalhousingorhotelsisexpectedtoserveasaviable

investmententrypointin2026.

Figure11:preferredstrategiesforInvestors

2026n20252024

source:2026andpreviousyears'chinaInvestorIntentionssurvey,CBREResearch,January2026.

15CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

shanghairemainsmostpreferred

destination;strongerinterestinretailassetsintierIIandtierIIlcities

shanghairemainedthemostpopularinvestmentdestinationin2026,with64%of

respondentsselectingitastheirtopchoice,an18-pps.increasefrom2025.Logistics,retail,andrentalhousingremaininvestors'primaryfocusinthismarket.

Beijingrankedasthesecondmostpopularcity,selectedby22%ofrespondents,aslight

decreasefromlastyear's27%.Investorpreferencesinthismarkethaveundergonea

structuralshift,withtheconcentrationofAlenterprisesandtherapidgrowthofcomputingpowerdemandpropellingdatacentrestothepositionofmostsought-afterassetclass,

Rentalhousingreplacedlogisticstoenterthetopthreesectorsinthisyear's