【IEF】2026年展望比较报告

IEFOutlooksComparisonReport2026

TableofContents

Introduction 3

OutlooksHighlights 5

ShortTermLiquidsOutlook 13

BaselineEnergyData 22

Outlooksto2035 27

Outlooksto2040 34

Outlooksto2050 40

AdditionalContext:IEAandOPECScenariosAlongsideOtherIndustryandAgencyOutlooks 49

SectorSpotlight:Transport 51

SectorSpotlight:Electricity 55

ConcludingObservationsonOutlookScenarios 60

Appendix 85

2

Introduction:IEFComparativeOutlookAnalysisShedsLightonGlobal

EnergyFuturesinformingPolicyandInvestmentDecisions

•TheannualenergyoutlooksoftheIEAandOPECplayacentralroleinshapingglobalmarketexpectationsandguidingproducer–consumerpolicyandinvestmentdecisions.Systematiccomparisonoftheseoutlooks,andtransparentdiscussionoftheirunderlyingscenario

assumptionsthroughinclusivedialogue,strengthenstheinterpretationoftheirresultsandsupportsmoreinformeddecision-makingworldwide.

•TheCancunIEFMinisterialDeclaration(2010)calledontheIEA,IEF,andOPECtoconveneanannualsymposiumonenergyoutlooks,

establishingaplatformforstructuredproducer–consumerdialogue.Sincethen,theIEFtrilateralworkprogrammeonenergyoutlooksand

physicalandfinancialenergymarketinteractionshasgrowninrelevance,asgeoeconomicshifts,evolvingmarketdynamics,rapidadvancesincleanenergytechnologies,andtheinterplayofenergysecurity,affordability,andsustainabilitywithphysicalandfinancialenergymarketfundamentalsshapeglobalmarketstabilityandthepursuitofsharedenergysecurity,sustainabledevelopment,climateandenvironmentalobjectives.

•Thisreportsupportsthe16thIEA–IEF–OPECSymposiumbysystematicallycomparingthekeyscenariosandunderlyingmethodologiesofthelatestIEAandOPECoutlooksandsituatingthemwithinthebroaderlandscapeofenergyscenariosproducedannuallybyotherpublicandprivatesectorinstitutions.

•Originallydevelopedtoenhancemarkettransparencyandinvestorconfidence,energyoutlookscenarioshaveexpandedinnumberand

scope,offeringanincreasinglydiversesetofpotentialfuturepathwaysandservingasakeyinstrumentforpublicengagement.Whilethis

expandingrangeofperspectivesreflectsdifferingassumptionsand,insomecases,morediverseviewsonthefeasibilityoflong-termtrends,italsobroadenstherangeofuncertainty,potentiallycomplicatinginvestmentdecisionsandslowingthedeploymentofmuchneededenergyinvestment.

•Systematicpeerreviewofenergyoutlooksenhancestheconsistencyofhistoricalbaselinedataandthetransparencyofmodelling

frameworksbyaligningtimeframesandmethodsandsheddinglightonthekeyassumptionsthatdriveshort-,medium-,andlong-term

projectionsofenergysupplyanddemandindifferentscenarios.Bydoingso,itenablesstakeholderstomoreeffectivelyinterpretprojectedglobalenergypathwaysandtoassessscenariooutcomesagainstevolvingrealworldmarketconditions,technologicalprogress,andpolicydevelopments.

•Improvedcomparabilityofbaselinedata,andmethodologies,includingtransparentdocumentationofmodellingassumptionsprovidesarangeofscenariopathwayswithmoreandlessprobableoutcomesdependentonpolicyperspectivesandprevailingmarketrealitiesbyassessingtheirrelevanceforreal-worldpolicyandinvestmentdecisions.

3

Energyoutlookuncertaintiesemphasizetheneedfordialogueand

collaborationtostrengthensecurity,affordability,andsustainabilityglobally

•TheenergyoutlookscomparedbytheIEFpresentasetofscenariosforglobalenergyconsumptionto2050,drawingon14sourcesandcoveringmorethan30scenarios.Thesecanbegroupedintothreemaincategories:

1.ReferenceandEvolvingPoliciesscenariosassumethecontinuationofcurrenttrends,adoptedpolicies,andtechnologicalprogress,withoutcomesshapedbypathway-specificdynamics.Thesescenariostypicallyprojectrisingenergydemanddrivenbypopulationandeconomicgrowth,alongsideagradualshifttowardlow-carbonenergysources.

2.Ambitiousclimatescenariosareorientedtowardachievingnet-zeroemissionsbymid-century,consistentwithlimitingglobalwarmingtoaround1.5。C,andinsomecasesupto1.7。Cby2100.Theyentailprofoundtransformationsinenergysystems,includingareductioninglobalenergydemand,rapid

expansionofrenewablegenerationandsustainablefuels,sharplyhigherelectrificationandefficiencygains,andthelarge-scaledeploymentofcarbonremovalandothernegative-emissionstechnologies.

•Asinpreviouseditions,thespreadacrossenergyprojectionsremainswideandcontinuestowidenovertime,reflectingdifferencesin

modellingframeworks,perspectivestakenandtheinherentuncertaintytowhichcomplexglobalenergysysteminteractionsareexposed.Thesedivergencesstemfromvaryingassumptionsoneconomicgrowth,technologyuptake,costs,andefficiencyimprovements,while

otherunderlyingpremisesremainimplicitandarenotalwaysfullytransparent.

•Themostambitiousscenariosadoptaback-castingapproach,definingatargetendstate,suchasachievingnet-zeroemissionsbya

givenyear,andthenderivingthepathwaysrequiredfromthatfuturegoaltoreachthepresent.Bycontrast,ReferenceandEvolving

Policiesscenariosfollowaforward-looking,bottom-upframeworkinwhichtrajectoriesemergefromassumptionsabouteconomicgrowth,technologydevelopment,andpolicysettings.

•Whileenergyoutlookswereoriginallydesignedtoenhancepredictabilityandinvestorconfidence,thegrowingdivergenceinprojectedpathwaysunderscorestheneedformoreinclusiveproducer–consumerdialoguetofosterasharedandmorecomprehensive

understandingofenergysecurity,affordability,andsustainabilitychallengesandthepaceofchangeonglobalenergymarkets.

•Takentogether,theoutlookscenarioshighlightthatpathwaystowardgreaterenergysecurityandmarketresiliencebyachieving

sustainabledevelopmentandclimateobjectives,includinguniversalaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodernenergy,aresubjecttowideninguncertainty.ProjectionsfromtheIEAshowthehighestdivergence.TheCurrentPolicescase,thattheIEAreinstatedthisyearshowsthehighestprimaryenergydemand,whiletheIEA’sNetZeropathwayprovidesascenarioinwhichrenewablesourcesprovidearound84%oftotalprimaryenergydemandalongsideasubstantialcontractioninoverallenergyuseby2050.

4

OutlooksHighlights

5

2035IEA&OPECOutlookHighlights:

•AcrossallIEAandOPECscenarios,hydrocarbonscontinuetoaccountformorethantwo-thirdsoftotalprimaryenergy

demandin2035,withthehighestsharesintheIEACurrentPoliciesandOPECEquitableGrowthscenarios.

•Low-carbonsharesdivergesharplyacrossoutlooks,withthecombinedcontributionofrenewables,nuclear,and

hydropowerreachingaround50%intheIEANetZero

scenarioby2035,comparedwithonlyabout25–30%intheReferenceandEvolvingGrowthscenarios.

•CoaI’ssharefaIIsmarkedIyinaIIscenarios,particuIarIy

undertheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsscenario,whereasoiIandgasretainbroadlystablesharesthroughto2035.

•Allfuel-mixdifferencesdependentirelyonrenewabledeploymentspeed,notonhydrocarbonschoices.

•Renewablepercentageshareoftheenergymixbecomesameasurablepolicysuccessindicatorforemissionsbutnotnecessarilyforenergysecurity,affordability,andsystem

resilience.

worIdprimaryEnergyDemandFueIShareoutIooKto2035

PercentageoftotaIprimaryenergydemand

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

OiI

Gas

CoaI

NucIear

Hydro

Bioenergy

Others

Renew.&NuIcear&hydro

source:IEF,IEAWEO2025,andOPECWOO2025.

6

2050IEA&OPECOutlookHighlights:

•The2050energyoutlookshowsthelargestscenariodivergenceofanytimehorizon,withtotalprimaryenergyrangingfrom274Mboe/d(IEANZE)to400Mboe/d(IEACP),adifferenceofroughly126

mboe/d,exceedingcurrentglobaloildemand.

•High-growthscenariosclusteraroundannualenergydemandgrowthofroughly0.85–1.03%to2050,moderatescenariosaround0.30–

0.53%,whiletheIEANetZerocasestandsapartwithanaverage

declineofabout0.49%peryear.Theresulting1.5-percentage-pointspreadinannualgrowthrates,betweentheIEACurrentPolicies

trajectory(~+1%)andtheIEANetZeropathway(~-0.5%),

compoundsintoagapofaround126mboe/dby2050,equivalenttoadivergenceofmorethan40%fromthe2024baselineof~310

mboe/d.

•Thisillustratesthehighsensitivityoflong-termenergyoutlooksto

smalldifferencesinassumedenergydemandgrowth.Relatively

modestvariationsinpolicy,technologyuptake,orbehavioralchangecantranslateintostructurallydifferentenergysystemsoveramulti-decadehorizon.

•Threefundamentallydifferentdemandtrajectoriesemerge:

•(1)high-growthpathways(IEACP,OPECEquitableGrowth)projectarounda28%increaseinglobalenergydemandto2050,implyingtotaldemand

approaching400mboe/d;

•(2)moderate-growthpathways(OPECReference,OPECTD)foreseedemandrisingbyroughly9–23%,withtotalsupplyintherangeof335–378mboe/d;

and

•(3)ademand-reductionpathway(IEANetZero)projectsanapproximate11%declineinglobalenergyusetoabout274mboe/dby2050,drivenby

efficiencygainsandstructuralchangedespitecontinuedeconomicgrowth.

•Theseoutcomescorrespondtothreedistinctenergysystems:one

requiringlarge-scaleexpansionofenergyinfrastructure,onebroadlysustainingcurrentgrowthpatterns,andonecharacterizedbypolicydrivencontractionintotaIenergydemand;“degrowth”.

400

300

200

100

0

worIdprimaryEnergyDemandoutIooKto2050

MiIIionbarreIsofoiIequivaIentperday

393

400

378

357

335

312308

274

OiI

Gas

CoaI

NucIear

Hydro

Bioenergy

Others

Renew.&NuIcear&hydro

source:IEF,IEAWEO2025,andOPECWOO2025.

7

IEAandOPECScenariosandOtherLong-TermEnergyOutlooks:

TotaIPrimaryEnergyDemandscenariosThrough2050

Mboe/d

500

400

300

200

100

327M

boed

Hi

story

20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

sources:IEF,IEAWEo2025,oPECWoo2025,bpEnergyoutlook2025,TotalEnergies

Energyoutlook2025,IRENAWorldEnergyTransitionoutlook2024,GECFGlobalGasoutlook2025,DNV’sEnergyTransitionoutlook2025,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2025,IEEJ

outlook2024,EIAIEo2023,shellEnergysecurityscenarios2025,ExxonMobilGlobal

outlook2025,andIPCCAR6.Note:somescenariosstartafterthehistoricalseriesends;theircurvesthereforebeginatthefirstyeareachoutlookreportsprojections.

•Thisyear’sscenariosetshowsthattheworld’s

leadingenergyinstitutionsarenotconvergingonasingle“mostlikely”future,butratheroutlininga

EIAHighEconGrowth

EIAlowoilprice

EIAlowzctcosts

IEACP

EIAReference

EIAhighzctcosts

EIAhighoilprice

oPECEG

shellsurge

oPECReference

Totaltrends

IEAsTEP

shellArchipelagos

EIALowEconGrowth

Totalmomentum

IPCCModAct(3C)

GECFsEs

IEFregressionmodel

Exxon

oPECTD

IEEJReference

GECFRCs

DNV

IPCCIMP-Neg(2C)

bpCT

TotalRupture

shellHorizon

IRENA1.5-s

EquinorWalls

IEANZE

IEEJATs

IPCCIMP-Ren(1.5C)

bpB2

EquinorBridges

IPCCIMP-LD(1.5C)

spectrumofenergysystemconfigurations,with

totalprimarydemandin2050rangingfromroughly150to470mboe/d.Thisdivergencereflects

fundamentallydifferentassumptionsabout

economicgrowth,policyeffectiveness,technologydeployment,andthepaceofenergy-efficiency

improvement.

•Acrossoutlooks,projectionsremaincloselyalignedthroughthemid-2030s,indicatingthatnear-term

demandislargelyshapedbypre-existingpathwaydependenciesoninfrastructure,capitalstock,andprevailingpolicyandmarketrealities.Greater

divergenceemergesafter2035,underscoringthatlong-termoutcomesin2050aredrivenprimarilybychoicesmadepresentlyandinthecurrentdecade,ratherthanconditionsin2035.

•The“IEFregressionmodel”,definesamedian

trajectoryacrossallpublishedoutlookstocapturethekeytrendemanatingfromthescenario

ensemble.Thisgivesarobust,data-drivenbenchmarkthatislessinfluencedbyrelativeoutliers.

•Thismedianpathwayfollowsamoderate

expansionthroughthemiddleofthescenario

range,withtotalprimaryenergydemandincreasingfromaround310mboe/din2020toapproximately

340mboe/dby2050,indicatingamid-range

evolutionoftheglobalenergysystemundercurrentexpectationsofpolicyandtechnologyevolution.

8

IEAandOPECScenariosandOtherLong-TermEnergyOutlooks:

RenewabIeDemandshareofTotaIPrimaryEnergyDemandscenariosto2050

100

75

50

25

0

shareofprimaryenergydemand

Hi

story

20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

sources:IEF,IEAWEO2025,OPECWOO2025,TotaIEnergiesEnergyOutIook2025,IRENAWorIdEnergyTransitionOutIook2024,bpEnergyOutIook2025,GECFGIobaIGasOutIook

2025,DNV’sEnergyTransitionOutIook2025,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2025,IEEJOutIook2024,EIAIEO2023,sheIIEnergysecurityscenarios2025,ExxonMobiIGIobaI

OutIook2025,andIPCCAR6.Note:somescenariosstartafterthehistoricaIseriesends;theircurvesthereforebeginatthefirstyeareachoutIookreportsprojections.

•Globaloutlooksprojecttheshareofrenewablesintotalprimaryenergydemandin2050torangefrom13.6%to84.3%,implyingaspreadof

IPCCIMP-Ren(1.5C)

IPCCIMP-LD(1.5C)

around71percentagepointsacrossscenarios.Unliketotalenergydemand,whichremains

IRENA1.5-s

IEANZE

tightlyclusteredaround330–410mboe/d

EquinorBridges

throughthemid-2030s,renewableshares

sheIIHorizon

71%

bpB2

TotaIRupture

divergeearlyandspreadoutsharplyafter2040.

OPECTD

sheIIsurge

DNV

•Fivedistinctclustersemerge:

sheIIArchipeIagos

OPECEG

TotaImomentum

OPECReference

IEAsTEP

•(1)verylowmarketshare(14–17%,2scenarios),•(2)lowmarketshare(22–29%,15scenarios),

EIAHighEconGrowth

IEFregressionmodeI

EquinorWaIIs

TotaItrends

EIAIowzctcosts

•(3)moderatemarketshare(30–46%,10scenarios),•(4)highmarketshare(56–70%,4scenarios),and

IEEJATs

bpCT

•(5)veryhighmarketshare(78–84%,3scenarios).

GECFRCs

IPCCIMP-Neg(2C)

•Thesegroupingsrevealthatrenewable

GECFsEs

deploymentremainsprimarilyafunctionof

IEACP

EIAhighoiIprice

EIAReference

EIAIowoiIprice

policyconditionsratherthanaself-sustainingmarket-drivenoutcome.Baselineandcurrent-policypathwaysconcentrateinthe22–30%

EIAhighzctcosts

Exxon

rangeby2050,whereasnet-zero-aligned

EIALowEconGrowth

IEEJReference

IPCCModAct(3C)

trajectoriesrequirerenewablesharesof70–84%toachievegoals.

•Only7ofthe34scenariosexceeda50%

renewablesharebymid-century,underscoringthatachievingmajorityrenewablesisnota

continuationofcurrenttrendsbuttheresultofincreasedpolicyambitionandgreaterdialogueandcooperationtoimprovemarketconditions.

9

IEAandOPECScenariosandOtherLong-TermEnergyOutlooks:

oiIDemandscenariosThrough2050

Mboe/d

150

100

50

0

119M

boed

Hi

story

20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

sources:IEF,IEAWEO2025,OPECWOO2025,bpEnergyOutIook2025,TotaIEnergies

EnergyOutIook2025,DNV’sEnergyTransitionOutIook2025,GECFGIobaIGasOutIook2025,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2025,IEEJOutIook2024,EIAIEO2023,sheIIEnergysecurity

scenarios2025,andExxonMobiIGIobaIOutIook2025.Note:somescenariosstartafterthehistoricaIseriesends;theircurvesthereforebeginatthefirstyeareachoutIook

reportsprojections.

EIAHighEconGrowth

EIAIowoiIprice

EIAhighzctcosts

EIAReference

EIAIowzctcosts

OPECEG

EIAhighoiIprice

OPECReference

EIALowEconGrowth

GECFsEs

IEACP

GECFRCs

IEEJReference

OPECTD

IEFregressionmodeI

Exxon

IEAsTEP

sheIIArchipeIagos

TotaItrends

sheIIsurge

bpCT

EquinorWaIIs

TotaImomentum

DNV

IEEJATs

sheIIHorizon

TotaIRupture

bpB2

EquinorBridges

IEANZE

•Thescenariosshowanalmostevensplitinoutlooks:

•(1)fourteenpathways(48%ofthetotal)project

continuedgrowthinoildemand,whileanother

•(2)fourteen(also48%)foreseeadecline,withonlya

•(3)singlescenarioindicatingbroadlyflatoildemand.

•Thisnear-symmetryunderscoresa

fundamentaldivisionwithinthescenario

modellingcommunity,pointingtotheabsenceofaclearconsensusonthelong-term

trajectoryofglobaloildemand.

•Thecomparisonofglobaloildemand

scenarioshighlightsthatmid-centuryoutcomesarealsonotpredeterminedbyresource

constraintsorshort-termmarketdynamics,butbyinvestmentandtradeconditionsshapedbypolicy,regulatory,andfinancingchoicesmadeinthecurrentdecade.

•Whilenear-termdemandremainsanchored

aroundtoday’sIeveIsduetopathway

dependencies(e.g.:infrastructurelock-inand

slowturnoverofvehicleandindustrialcapital

stock)post-2035trajectoriesdivergesharply,

reflectingdifferingassumptionsonpolicy

ambitions,efficiencygains,electrificationrates,andsustainablefueldeployment.

10

IEAandOPECScenariosandOtherLong-TermEnergyOutlooks:

NaturaIGasDemandscenariosThrough2050

7500

5000

2500

0

BiIIioncubicmetres(Bcm)

IPCCModAct(3C)

EIAHighEconGrowth

GECFsEs

OPECEG

EIAhighoiIprice

7004Bcm

OPECReference

EIAhighzctcosts

EIAReference

EIAIowoiIprice

GECFRCs

IEEJReference

EIAIowzctcosts

Exxon

bpCT

TotaItrends

IEFregressionmodeI

History

EIALowEconGrowth

IEAsTEP

TotaImomentumEquinorWaIIs

sheIIsurge

OPECTD

TotaIRupture

IEEJATs

IPCCIMP-Neg(2C)

sheIIArchipeIagos

sheIIHorizon

bpB2

EquinorBridges

IEANZE

IPCCIMP-Ren(1.5C)

IPCCIMP-LD(1.5C)

20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050

sources:IEF,IEAWEO2025,OPECWOO2025,bpEnergyOutIook2025,TotaIEnergies

EnergyOutIook2025,DNV’sEnergyTransitionOutIook2025,GECFGIobaIGasOutIook2025,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2025,IEEJOutIook2024,EIAIEO2023,sheIIEnergysecurity

scenarios2025,ExxonMobiIGIobaIOutIook2025,andIPCCAR6.Note:somescenariosstartafterthehistoricaIseriesends;theircurvesthereforebeginatthefirstyeareach

outIookreportsprojections.

•Theanalysisofnaturalgasdatashowsthat~61percentofscenariosprojectgrowth,comparedtothe48percentofoilscenariosshowinggrowth.

•TheIEFregressionmodelshowsnaturalgas

IEACP

demandat4,732Bcmby2050,representing14.4percentgrowthfromthe2023baseline,reflectingthatoverallscenariosprojectnaturalgasdemandtoexpand.

•Growth-orientedscenariosaccountfor20ofthe

33forecasts,withaverageannualdemandgrowthofaround1%,translatingintocumulative

DNV

increasesrangingfromabout1.3%tomorethan80%overtheprojectionperiod.

•Asmallgroupofaroundthreescenariosoccupiesanarrowmiddleground,showingbroadlyflat

naturalgasdemandwithconsumptionremainingclosetocurrentlevels.

•Bycontrast,aroundninescenariosindicate

decliningtrajectories,withaverageannualratesofchangeofaround-3%,spanningarangefromapproximateIy-0.3%to-7.3%peryear.

11

Primaryenergyusepercapitaacrossarangeofscenarios

•By2050,markeddisparitiesinprimaryenergy

demandpercapitaareprojectedtopersist,

primaryEnergyConsumptionperCapita(GJ,2024)

underscoringdeepstructuralinequalitiesbetweenadvancedanddevelopingcountries.Acrossmajorregionsthatrepresenttheglobalpopulation,the

200

datahighlightsthetightcouplingbetween

economicdevelopment,energysecurityandsustainabledevelopmentandclimategoals.

150

•Nearly3.5billionpeopleinnon-OECDdevelopingregionsareexpectedtoconsumeonlyone-

quartertoone-tenthasmuchenergyperperson

100

asOECDregions.Yettheseregionsarepoisedtoaccountforthemajorityoffutureenergydemandgrowthoverthecomingdecades.

•The“PerCapitaEnergyDemandGap”marksacriticalenergyaccesschallenge,spanningthe

50

rangeofper-capitademandacross33scenariosby2050wherefutureenergydemandgrowth

requiressubstantialenergyinvestment.

0

•Giventheeconomicandpopulationgrowthinnon-OECDeconomiesoverthenexttwo

decades,per-capitaenergydemandintheseregionswillrisesignificantly.

•WiththeOECDmaintaining2024levelsofenergyusepercapita,aglobalconvergenceinenergy

accesswillimpliescontinuedgrowthinglobalprimaryenergydemand.

primaryEnergyconsumptionpercapita

Gigajoulespercapita

Thisrepresentsthegapbetweenthehighestandlowestvaluesofglobalper-capitaenergydemandacross33scenariosby2050

percapitaEnergyDemandGap

02000400060008000

population(2024)

NorthAmericaEURAsIA

China

EUR

CentralandsouthAmericaIndia

Africa

otherregions

sources:IEF,IEAWEo2025,opECWoo2025,bpEnergyoutlook2025,TotalEnergies

Energyoutlook2025,DNV’sEnergyTransitionoutlook2025,GECFGlobalGasoutlook2025,EquinorEnergyperspectives2025,IEEJoutlook2024,EIAIEo2023,shellEnergysecurity

scenarios2025,ExxonMobilGlobaloutlook2025,andIpCCAR6.

12

ShortTermLiquidsOutlook

(IEAOMR,OPECMOMRandEIASTEO2025-2026asofJanuary2026)

13

1.0 0.8

Agenciesareprojectinganaverageofapproximately1.1mb/dinboth

2025and2026

2025&2026LiquidDemandForecastByAgency

Millionbarrelsperday

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

58.359.257.859.260.458.9

45.745.945.945.846.145.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

104.0105.1103.7105.0106.5104.8

IEAOPECEIA

2025

IEAOPECEIA

2026

OECDNon-OECD

2025&2026LiquidDemandGrowthByAgency

Millionbarrelsperday

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.21.1

1.2

1.0

1.21.2

1.10.91.10.9

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1-0.1

IEAOPECEIA

2025Y/Y

IEAOPECEIA

2026Y/Y

nOECD.Non-OECD◆NetTotal

Source:IEF,IEAOMRJan2026,OPECMOMRJan2026,andEIASTEOJan2026.

14

Around1.7mbddivergenceisobservedacrossagencies’estimatesof

globaloildemandin2026,comparedwithabout1.5mb/din2025

2025-2026LiquidDemandForecastbyAgency

2025

2026

millionbarrelsperday

IEA

OPEC

EIA

Range

(high-low)

IEA

OPEC

EIA

Range

(high-low)

TotalOECD

45.7

45.94

45.90

0.24

45.8

46.09

45.89

0.29

Americas

25.3

25.40

24.84

0.56

25.3

25.52

24.87

0.65

Europe

13.4

13.44

13.46

0.06

13.4

13.48

13.46

0.08

AsiaOceania

7.0

7.10

7.6

0.6

7.0

7.08

7.56

0.56

TotalNon-OECD

58.3

59.20

57.79

1.41

59.2

60.43

58.93

1.5

Asia

32.0

32.33

31.55

0.78

32.6

33.02

32.30

0.72

China

16.8

16.87

16.60

0.27

17.0

17.06

16.81

0.25

MiddleEast*

9.2

8.94

9.39

0.45

9.3

9.10

9.45

0.35

LatinAmerica

6.6

6.88

6.97

0.37

6.7

7.01

7.11

0.41

EuropeandEurasia

5.7

6.18

5.89

0.48

5.6

6.27

5.88

0.67

Russia

3.54

4.04

3.80

0.5

3.51

4.09

3.78

0.58

Africa

4.8

4.87

4.79

0.08

5.0

5.03

4.99

0.04

World

104.0

105.14

103.69

1.45

105.0

106.52

104.82

1.7

Source:IEF,IEAOMRJan2026,OPECMOMRJan2026,andEIASTEOJan2026.Note:ThedifferencesbetweentheIEAandOPECMiddleEastbaselinesrelatetodatasources.

15

Divergenceinglobaloildemandestimatesacrossagenciesisaround0.5

mb/din2025

GlobalDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

IEAOPECEIA

0.0

May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25Aug-25Nov-25ForecastVintage

Non-OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

IEA

OPEC

EIA

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25Aug-25Nov-25

ForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMRJan2026,OPECMOMRJan2026,EIASTEOJan2026.

OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

1.5

IEA

OPEC

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25Aug-25Nov-25ForecastVintage

ChineseDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

1.8

1.6

IEA

OPEC

EIA

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25Aug-25Nov-25ForecastVintage

16

AllagenciesarealignedintheirestimatesofChineseoildemand

growthin2026

GlobalDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2026Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

OPEC

IEA

EIA

0.2

0.0

ForecastVintage

Non-OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2026Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

IEA

OPEC

EIA

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

ForecastVintage

OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2026Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0IEAOPECEIA0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

ForecastVintage

ChineseDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2026Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.6

1.4

IEAOPECEIA

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

ForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMRJan2026,OPECMOMRJan2026,EIASTEOJan2026.Note:IEAfirstpublisheda2025forecastinApril2025.

17

OPECprojectsaverageglobaloildemandgrowthofaround1.4mb/din

both2026and2027

QuarterIYOiI